José de Luna Martínez

Senior Financial Economist

The World Bank

ADFIAP’s 35th Annual Meeting Istanbul, Turkey, April 25-27, 2012

Together, BRICS account for:

One third of the world’s population

One fifth of global GDP

In the future, BRICS are expected to be:

Increasing source of global economic growth

Growing geopolitical actor

Source: World Bank

High-income countries Developing countries

6,906

9,191

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Rural Population Urban PopulationNumber of Persons

(million)

Source: UN

+ Demographic changes‣Increased longevity, affecting health costs, pensions, savings; shrinking workforces‣China: by 2035, 25% of the population (350M) will be seniors‣Japan, Russia, and EU: population is shrinking‣SSA: growing. By 2050 population will double = 20% of world population‣Middle East – youth bulge and bust+ Urbanization‣By 2020, 80 of the world’s 100 largest cities in developing countries+ Demand for commodities‣China consumes half the world’s cement; half the world’s pigs; almost half the world’s iron ore and steel; over 40% of the world’s aluminum, zinc, and lead; a third of the world’s soybeans and eggs‣China’s demand will eventually ease – but India, and others, will be next

Agriculture

Infrastructure

International trade

Industry

Housing

Tourism

Agriculture

Infrastructure

International trade

Industry

Housing

Tourism

Promote economic

development

Loans

Guarantees

Advisory services

Technical assistance

Households

SMEs

Local governments

Large corporations

Financial institutions

InstrumentsSectors Clients

Loan Portfolio of DFIs(per trillion $U.S.) DFIs’ Loan Portfolio Growth

By Region (2007-2009)

Region %Asia 72%Americas 70%Africa 60%Europe 12%

36%

WB Survey on DFIs revealed there is room for improvement:

•Corporate governance•Risk management•Monitoring and evaluation framework•Profitability and financial sustainability of DFIs

Thank You!