Date post: | 13-Aug-2015 |
Category: |
Business |
Upload: | informa-australia |
View: | 130 times |
Download: | 9 times |
Mozambique Overview
• Mozambique’s annual GDP growth averaging 7.4% over the past two decades
• Strong economic growth was accompanied by large decreases in poverty; national poverty rate fell 18% between 1997 and 2009
• Recent discoveries of large deposits of coal and gas could transform Mozambique into a significant player in global commodities markets
Source: World Bank (Apr 16, 2015)
Coal Resources in Tete Province
Large relatively untapped coal resource estimate exceeds 23 billion tonnes
Requires significant exploration to completely understand its full potential
Optimal exploitation of marketable products need to be understood so that ultimate success of the coal mining industry in Mozambique is achieved
Could possibly affect related industries, such as coal-fired power generation and coal to liquid conversion
Coal Resources in Tete Province
The coal basins/sub-basins in Tete Province extend ~ 500 km from Zumbo to Mutarara
Deposits in tectonic basins along the Zambezi River, with a E-W orientation, from Zumbo to Songo and in a NW-SE direction from Songo
The geology of the different areas varies considerably and is not easily summarized.
Coal Resources in Tete Province
Basins limited by border-faults parallel to the main directions of the Zambezi Mobile Belt. These faults are often filled with dolerite intrusions
ICVL, and Vale’s mines are located in Moatize-Minjova, are most advanced in activity & are prime focus of current production and exports
In the Moatize-Minjova Basin the Moatize formation reaches a thickness of 340 m, with 6 coal zones (from bottom to top): Sousa Pinto, Chipanga, Bananeiras, Intermedia, Grande Falesia and Andre.
Coal features in Mozambique
Very little of the Mozambique coals
are coking coal
Some seams around Moatize have the right characteristics for coking coal but the yields are low,at best around a 23% HCC coking coal yield, but typically only around 20%
Seams are thick, near surface and low cost to mine, but are low grade Seams comprise thin, alternating layers
of coal and shale which when mined and processed to internationally traded norms, yield low volumes of high cost products
To be internationally competitive, the economics of the industry has to improve
Coal features in Mozambique This quality of thermal coal sells at about 85% to 80% of the South African benchmark RB2 index
Whatever the index, when benchmarked against global competition Mozambican exports will report upper quartile costs, hence marginal economics
At present, the thermal coal’s value is not enough to cover the cost of logistics. The current value of HCC in each tonne of Run of Mine coal is also not enough to cover the total costs
The cost of logistics is too high & are not internationally benchmarked but designed to provide a cash flow for the State
An increase in rail capacity and even a modest reduction in logistics costs will not in itself grow the export volumes, rather it is the ability to dispose of the low grade by-product thermal coal profitably which will enable the industry to grow
International Market
Mozambique
India
China Japan
Low Cost Solution
All-in Logistics Costs must be
affordable for the lower priced TC
exportable products
Efficiency in transportation
Cargo Volume
Systematization of railway, port and shipment
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Highlights
Item Description
Logistic objectives
Coal transport • Phase I - 25 Mtpa (2019-25) • Phased II & III - 50 Mtpa (2026-34), 100 Mtpa (2035-45) Passenger transport – daily train in each direction (Phase 1)
Length of railway 484 km + 120 km (Estima)
Traction type Diesel
Train configuration 3 locomotives driving 216 wagons of 100t each
Trains in service (daily) 5 trains
Port capacity 80,000 DWT Panamax vessels (Phase I) 150,000 DWT Cape-size vessels (Phase II)
Rail/Port round trip 30 hours
Capital investment US$ 2,953 million (not including financing costs)
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Railway Design Parameters
Item Description
Gauge Standard gauge 1,435 mm
Design axle load 32 tonnes
Number of main lines Single track (double track to be added in future)
Minimum curve radius 800m, 300m for loading loop lines
Limiting gradient 0.5% for loaded trains, 1.0% for unloaded trains
Traction Type Diesel
Locomotives GE (ES44AC), EMD (SD70ACE), or equivalent
Hauling wagons Series C100 (including ECP braking), or equivalent
Passenger trains Two 2-car diesel multiple units (DMU) for daily trips
Traction tonnage 27,000t by 3 locomotives
Train configuration 3 locomotives driving 216 wagons of 100t each
Trains in service (daily) 5 trains
Capacity per train 20,736 ton
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Port Design Parameters
Item Description
Bulk berth one 80,000 DWT berth (313m); design bottom depth -15.4 MCD; berth structure design -18.5 MCD
Tugboat berths two 80-ton berths (90m each); design bottom depth -5.6m MCD
Roll-on-roll-off berth water level ramps - low (L= 40m), medium (L= 24m), and high (8m); design bottom depth -2.4 MCD
Tanker berth one berth (120m); design bottom depth -4.7MCD
Sand interception breakwaters
North - 4000m in length South – 3000m in length
Land area 66.9 hectares
Water area 701.1 hectares
Dredging of water area 2865.6 hectares
Backfill of land area 172 hectares
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Justification
Unlock coal resources by
providing low cost
transport, competitively priced against
other sea-borne export markets
Contribute to GOM objectives,
included in 5 years GOM program (2015 – 2019)
poverty reduction
job creation
economic growth
diversification
Long-term contribution to
human capital in Tete and Zambezia
sustainable employment
opportunities to workers
Lasting impact on regional and
national economy
Market Analysis Thermal and Coking Coal
Thermal Coal Market
• Weak through at least 2016 due to: – OECD countries sluggish economic conditions
– Gas supply glut in US
– Slowing economy in China and push to develop domestic coal in India
– Global movement towards cleaner fuels
• AME forecast import demand growth <3%/yr for next decade
• Surplus supply leading to strong price drop – FOB price forecast of $70-$75/t by 2018, rising to $80/t - $106/t by 2020
• Must reduce logistics costs for Moatize coal to be competitive
Market Analysis Thermal and Coking Coal
Hard Coking Coal Market
• Slowing demand, over-supply
– additional production from weaker currency countries such as Australia
• AME forecast import demand growth of 3.5% over the long term
• Demand growth driven by China and India
– Asia will represent 76% of global coking coal demand by 2030
• FOB price forecast
– $135 - $156/t by 2018, rising to $145 - $182/t by 2030
Mozambique’s Potential in the Global Market
Challenges
• Weak coal prices
• Lack of affordable logistics infrastructure
• Current negative perception among current mine owners
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project is an opportunity
to overcome these challenges
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Route Recommended
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Route Recommended
Blue route recommended • shorter distance
• acceptable gradient
• avoidance of wetlands and flood-prone zones
• minimizing impacts on populated areas
• port approach allows for future expansion
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project LIDAR Survey
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Bathymetry Study : Mutarara-Shire River
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project SOIL Investigation
Completed
On-going
On-going
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Baseline Study
Completed
On-going
On-going
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Port Concession Boundary
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Port Concession Boundary
Auxiliary working area
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Offshore Soil Investigations
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Offshore Soil Investigations
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Navigation Simulation
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project ESIA / RAP - Public Consultation Meeting in Tete
Moatize – Macuse Railway and Port Project Project Stages
Stage Time
Bankable Feasibility Study April 2015
Owner’s engineer End of July 2015
EPC Tender End of August 2015
EPC award December 2015
Social & Environment ESIA/RAP Approval and Financial Close
June 2016
Beginning of Operations 2019
Obrigado
Thank You
Khop Khun Khrap