Imagination at work
Distributed Generation and DER Management: Technical Perspective
Jovan Bebic, GE Energy Consulting ARPA-E Workshop, Washington DC July 31, 2014
Overview
The question:
Quantify the benefits of more flexible DER management (Load, DG, ES) Concentrate on
improvements to efficiency and emissions
The approach:
Study impacts at large scale, e.g. PJM (~20% of US load)
Define modeling proxies for DER technology features
and quantify their value using production simulations (GE MAPS)
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Acknowledgment
Thank you to the GE Energy Consulting team:
Gene Hinkle
Bahman Daryanian
Derek Stenclik
Bob Woodfield
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Initial Condition – PJM Non-Renewable Fleet Markets favor low cost
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Tech CO2 t/GWh
SOX t/GWh
NOX t/GWh
Nuclear -- -- --
Coal 1007.3 1.014 0.869
CCGT 433.5 0.071 0.003
SCGT 666.1 0.339 0.040
CCGT, 38,143 , 18%
Coal, 63,714 , 29%
NUCLEAR, 34,827 , 16%
1%
1%
1%
SCGT, 64,592 , 30%
1% 3%
CCGT
Coal
NUCLEAR
OTHER
Pondage
PumpedStorage
SCGT
STEAMGAS
STEAMOIL
Tech Cap Cost $/kW
Var Cost $/MWh
Eff %
Nuclear 5,530 12.21 32.2
Coal 2,934 44.15 34.7
CCGT 1,023 56.22 46.8
SCGT 676 95.78 30.5
183GW Gen Capacity, 165GW Peak Load, 794GWh Annual Energy, 61M People Source: PJM 2013 Annual Report
Primary fuels consumption for generation Increase in renewable production can lower energy output of thermal fleet
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30% PJM study target
The 2026 Base Case (30% renewables)
1.0
34.5
14.7
0.4
1.6
5.1
4.0
0.2
0.4
1.1
2.5
Wind GW
Solar GW
8.9
0.2
3.5 3.9 5.4
2.9
2.7
0.4
1.3
Total Wind & Solar
Onshore Wind 59.8 GW
Offshore Wind 6.8 GW
Solar 30.8 GW
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.2 0.4
1.1
0.3
Note: Dots indicate wind plant sites; Solar resources are not shown.
Wind forecasting will be a key challenge beyond 30% penetration
Supply/Demand Balance
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Change in net load and its impact
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Nuclear ceiling
Demand response
The Impact to the Power System
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0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Solar Dispatch
Wind Dispatch
Pondage
PSH
STEAMOIL
STEAMGAS
Net Imports
SCGT
CCGT
COAL
NUCLEAR
OTHER
Load
A more controllable DER… … How does it impact system operation?
The load can act dynamically:
a. operating reserves can be reduced => operating costs lower
b. transmission constraints can be relaxed => energy supplied by thermal plants with lower var. costs => system-wide price drop
c. can compensate for renewable forecast errors => reduced operating reserves (same as a.)
The load can be scheduled:
d. the peaks are lower => SCGTs (peakers) run less
e. the daily profiles are flatter => alters dispatch of CCGTs & Coal
Distribution circuit impacts:
• integration convenience, but insignificant economics… ARPA-E Workshop | 31 July 2014 10
Studied sensitivities
Code Description
2%BAU 2% Renewable energy, business as usual
14%RPS 14% Renewable portfolio standard
30%OrigT 30% Renewable: Low Off-shore, Best On-shore; 2017 transmission
30%NoSpin 30%OrigT + no operating reserves (~4.5GW reduction)
30%ModT 30% Renewable; transmission reduced to ensure <$5 LMP diffs
30%InfT 30% Renewable; infinite transmission
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The results
Coal falls-off nonlinearly with renewables increase from 14 to 30%, CCGTs go up.
Peakers in trouble – 0.6% capacity factor (down from 2% in BAU)
Weighted capacity factors
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Transmission constraints have the dominant impact on renewable curtailments
Delivered renewable energy
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PJM emissions dropping – renewable energy substitutes thermal energy
PJM emissions
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OrigT - NoSpin: $3.3bn/year savings in production costs
OrigT – InfT: $10.1bn/year savings in production costs
Production costs
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Customer energy costs do not have a uniform trend!
Exports to more expensive regions elevate average prices in PJM
Wholesale energy costs
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Summary
• The most impactful role of flexible DER is to alleviate transmission congestion (worth up to $10bn/year)
• The easiest to implement is substitution of operating reserves (worth up to $3bn/year)
• The markets are structured to yield lowest operating costs, so any flexibility plays first in favor of renewables, then coal
• Efficiency and emissions can be driven by energy policy to desired levels, but not without an impact to the cost of energy
• Future market and policy design should account for consumer choice that can be explicitly enabled by DER
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