JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe · MARS Bulletin Vol. 24 No. 11 – 21 November 2016 1...

MARS Bulletin Vol. 24 No. 11 – 21 November 2016

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r

A cold weather anomaly prevailed during the first half of

October in central and south-eastern Europe, much of

Scandinavia, France and the UK. The second half of

October was unusually cold in southern European Russia

and eastern Ukraine. Air temperatures dropped below

seasonal values during the first half of November in

central and northern Europe.

Abundant precipitation was observed in a wide region

extending from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea and the

western Balkans. By contrast, substantially drier-than-

usual conditions prevailed until the second dekad of

October in northern Europe, north-western Germany,

western France, the southern part of the UK and the

northern part of the Iberian Peninsula, whereas large parts

of Turkey, north-western Italy and the Spanish

Mediterranean region remained almost completely dry

throughout the review period. Sowing and emergence

conditions for small grains were somewhat difficult, but

within the normal range, whereas rapeseed sowing

activities and emergence were hampered by overly dry

conditions in France, Benelux and Germany.

Avg 5yrsOctober

Bulletin

MARS

2016

forecasts

% Diff

16/5yrs

% Diff

October

TOTAL CEREALS 5,32 5,16 5,17 -2,9 +0,2

Total Wheat 5,60 5,40 5,40 -3,5 +0,0

soft wheat 5,83 5,62 5,62 -3,5 +0,0

durum wheat 3,33 3,34 3,35 +0,5 +0,3

Total Barley 4,73 4,76 4,77 +0,8 +0,2

spring barley 4,13 4,20 4,20 +1,6 +0,0

winter barley 5,58 5,48 5,49 -1,7 +0,2

Grain maize 6,95 6,82 6,83 -1,8 +0,1

Rye 3,75 3,78 3,79 +1,2 +0,3

Triticale 4,20 4,18 4,18 -0,5 +0,0

Rape and turnip rape 3,21 3,21 3,21 +0,2 +0,0

Potato 32,22 32,35 32,35 +0,4 +0,0

Sugar beet 71,83 73,82 73,76 +2,7 -0,1

Sunflower 1,93 1,99 2,00 +3,2 +0,5

Issued: 18 November 2016

Crop

Yield t/ha

Online version Issued: 21 November

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 24 No 11

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

November 2016

Arrival of the first frosts Somewhat difficult sowing and emergence conditions but no major concerns

Content: 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Sowing conditions 3. Sugar beet review 4. Crop yield forecasts 5. Atlas Covers the period from 1 October until 15 November


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1. Agro-meteorological overview

1.1 Meteorological review (1 October – 15 November)

A cold weather anomaly prevailed during the first half

of October in central and south-eastern Europe, much of

Scandinavia, France and the UK. Towards mid-October, a

cold air intrusion caused frost events (with temperatures

typically between -3°C and -7°C) in northern and eastern

Europe. The second half of October was unusually cold in

southern European Russia and eastern Ukraine, with

temperature anomalies of 4°C to 6°C below the long-term

average. Minimum temperatures of between -5°C and -

10°C were recorded in these regions.

Air temperatures dropped below seasonal values

during the first half of November in central and northern

Europe. Minimum air temperatures of between -5°C and -

10°C were recorded in large areas of central Europe,

whereas Scandinavia recorded temperatures below -10°C.

Unusually warm weather conditions prevailed during

the first dekad of October in the southern half of Russia,

the Caucasus region, Turkey, Spain and in the Maghreb

countries, with temperature anomalies of up to 7°C.

Abundant precipitation cumulates were observed in a

wide region extending from the Baltic Sea to the Black

Sea, the western Balkans, central Italy and south-eastern

France. Rainfall cumulates in these regions generally

exceeded 150 mm, locally even 200 mm. Intensive rainfall

events locally resulted in flooding and waterlogging.

Substantially drier-than-usual conditions occurred in

northern Europe, north-western Germany, western France,

the southern part of the UK, the northern part of the

Iberian Peninsula, Turkey and north-western Italy.

Precipitation cumulates in these areas did not exceed 80

mm. Less than 20 mm were recorded in Turkey and the

northern part of Scandinavia.


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1.2 Weather forecast (18-25 November)

Weather conditions during the analysed period will be determined by a slowly evolving large-scale atmospheric

circulation event. A trough, stretching from the British Isles towards the Iberian Peninsula, will favour an intense south-

westerly air flow over western and central Europe. Towards the end of next week, this trough is expected to deepen and

become a cyclonic system over the western Mediterranean, detached from the zonal atmospheric circulation. An almost

stationary ridge, associated with weak air flow, is expected over the eastern Mediterranean and eastern Europe.


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Warmer-than-usual weather conditions are expected

in western, central, south-eastern and northern Europe,

with mean daily temperature anomalies (w.r.t. the long-

term average) of mainly between 2°C and 4°C (higher in

north-western Russia).

Slightly colder-than-usual weather conditions are

expected in the Iberian Peninsula and most of the UK.

Colder-than-usual weather conditions are expected in

south-western Russia, Ukraine and countries along the

eastern side of the Black Sea. Mean daily temperature

anomalies will be mainly between -6°C (locally -8°C) and

-2°C. Minimum temperatures of below -10°C (locally -

15°C) are forecast.

Dry conditions with rainfall cumulates of less than 5 mm

are mainly expected in large areas of central, eastern and

south-eastern Europe and western Russia.

High rainfall cumulates, locally exceeding 120 mm, are

forecast for southern France, south-western Spain, and

north-western and southern Italy.

Concerning the seasonal forecast, the following three

months (December, January and February) are likely to be

warmer than usual in northern Europe and the

Mediterranean region.


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2. Sowing conditions campaign 2016/17

• North–western Europe: sowing and emergence

hampered by dry conditions in September and the

first half of October;

• Central–eastern Europe: Winter crops sowing

delayed due to excessive rain in October;

• Southern Russia: rains delayed winter cereals

sowing in September.

• Morocco: Sowing delayed due to lasting dry

conditions.

2.1 European Union - update

Winter soft wheat, winter barley and rye

Difficult starts due to drought, rain and/or below-average temperatures

In the UK, Poland, Demark, southern Sweden and the Baltic

countries, conditions have generally been adequate for

timely sowing and, in most areas, rain subsequently led to

crops to establish. However, in some of these areas (such

as in parts of the south-eastern UK), extended dry periods

caused a delay to germination, and high weed pressure

set in once the rains resumed. A predominance of lower-

than-usual temperatures in Poland and the Baltic

countries also hampered the establishment of winter

cereals, but this of no serious concern for crops that were

sown on time. In much of Germany, the Benelux countries

and northern and western France, overly dry soil

conditions during the normal sowing window (second half

of September and first half of October) delayed sowing

activities and/or resulted in the poor emergence of crops

that had already been sown. Frequent precipitation during

the second half of October improved soil water conditions,

but farmers often had to wait until the end of October or

beginning of November for a suitably dry sowing window.

The predominance of below-average temperatures

caused additional delays to the emergence and early

establishment of crops in these regions.

Abundant rains in large parts of eastern Europe also

hampered the sowing of winter cereals, especially in

Romania; northern Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovenia and central

Croatia are also affected. As sowing activities are still

ongoing in these regions, these late-sown stands will be

more vulnerable to frost.

In south-eastern France and Italy, conditions were

favourable for winter sowing activities. In Spain, after a

long period of dry conditions, some rain replenished

topsoils to adequate moisture levels for sowing in the

second half of October and the beginning of November,

which corresponds with the normal sowing window in the

main winter-cereal production regions.


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Durum Wheat

Favourable conditions in the main producing regions

After a rather humid September, rainfall in the south of

Italy (Puglia, Basilicata and Sicilia) was slightly below the

norm, which permitted durum wheat sowing activities to

get underway without significant delays. In the centre-

north (Toscana, Umbria, Marche), low levels of

precipitation registered from mid-October to the first

week of November favoured the start of durum wheat

sowing activities. Nevertheless, substantial rainfall in the

second week of November may have interrupted late

sowing activities, which were postponed to the end of the

month.

In north-eastern Spain (Aragón), rainfall was close to the


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norm from mid-October, increasing soil moisture levels

after a rather dry end to the summer. As a result, sowing

activities started by the end of October without significant

delays. In Andalucía, thanks to adequate soil moisture

levels, preparatory work is progressing smoothly and

sowing activities will get underway by the end of

November. In the south of France, sowing activities are

underway after a slight delay compared to an average

year. Low precipitation since the end of October is,

however, favouring rapid progression. In Greece, durum

wheat sowing activities are currently underway in the

main producing areas, benefiting from the absence of

abundant rainfall since mid-October.

Winter rapeseed

Difficult start to the season in France, Germany and the UK

Precipitation was clearly below average from mid-August

to mid-September in large parts of France and Germany,

the two main EU-28 producers of rapeseed. As a

consequence of the dry conditions, part of the rapeseed

was not sown at all in France. The most impacted region

was Lorraine, in north-eastern France. Rhône-Alpes,

Auvergne and Bourgogne were impacted to a lesser

extent. In most areas where rapeseed was sown,

emergence was delayed due to the dry conditions, and the

heterogeneity is high within fields and regions. In north-

western France, farmers delayed sowing until mid-

September; all regions are impacted except for western

Bretagne. October continued to be dry, leading to

deteriorated conditions and re-ploughing of the soils.

Conditions were similar in Germany, especially in the North

and East of the country, where persistent dry conditions

often prevented rapeseed from emerging properly. This is

especially the case on heavy soils, which were already dry

at the time of sowing. The early establishment of

rapeseed was not optimal, and many fields show uneven

crop development. Unfavourable dry conditions continued

throughout October, especially in Niedersachsen and

Bayern. This led to some re-ploughing, currently

estimated1 to be in the range of 13 500 ha, whereas the

overall rapeseed area slightly increased. In Poland, the

EU’s third main producer, weather facilitated a more

adequate progression of sowing activities, and problems

related to dry soils are encountered to a lesser extent in

western and central parts of the country. The country has

seen plentiful rain in October and November so far. In the

UK, sowing conditions were average, but a dry period set

in during October with negative consequences on the

further establishment of rapeseed, leading to some re-

ploughing. In addition, there is quite some pest and

disease pressure, and losses due to flea beetle damage

have been reported2.

1 http://www.ufop.de/presse/aktuelle-pressemitteilungen/ufop-

studie-winterrapsanbau-zur-ernte-2017-bleibt-auf-hohem-niveau/

2 http://www.fwi.co.uk/arable/drought-and-flea-beetle-wipe-out-

70000ha-of-english-oilseed-rape.htm


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2.2 Neighbourhood area

Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia

Rainy start to the sowing campaign in Algeria; dry in Morocco

Overall, October was characterised by hot and dry

conditions in the three countries. Beneficial rainy episodes

occurred in the Nord Ouest and Centre Nord of Morocco

during the second dekad of October, which led to the start

of the winter sowing campaign in some areas. During the

second week of November, abundant rainfall came to

Algeria and the northern coastal region of Tunisia, which

could encourage farmers to start sowing, especially in

western Algeria (where sowing is usually earlier than in

the rest of the country) and Tunisia (mid-November-

December). By contrast, croplands in Morocco received

very sparse precipitation during the first half of November.

Even though cereals are well adapted to rain-free periods,

precipitation will be necessary in the coming weeks to

ensure the good emergence of cereals already sown. In

other parts, farmers will wait for some rain to accomplish

sowing activities, especially in Tensif. So far, this is not a

concern, since mild temperatures allow the sowing

window to be extended (even until the first half of January

if necessary) to obtain more appropriate soil moisture

conditions for the sowing and germination of winter

cereals.

Ukraine

Unfavourable conditions for the emergence of winter crops

The long dry period that started at the beginning of

September and caused delays to the sowing of winter

crops, ended with heavy rainfall events between 4 and 13

October. More than 50 mm of daily rainfall was recorded

locally in the oblasts of Vinnyts’ka, Odes’ka, Mykolayivs’ka

and Kirovohrads’ka, causing further delays and damaging

seedbeds. In other regions, the rainfall allowed farmers to

complete the sowing of winter crops. Temperatures

dropped below the long-term average at the beginning of

October, and daily averages remained below 10°C from

10 October to 6 November, thus slowing the emergence

of winter crops. At the beginning of November, a few

snowfall events were observed, mostly in the North of the

country. Warmer conditions prevailed from 6 to 13

November, but then temperatures dropped again to below

the average. Part of the winter crop area will be re-sown

during spring due to the poor conditions, the main

impacted oblast being Vinnyts’ka. In other oblasts, the

impacts of the rather unfavourable start for winter crops

on final yields will depend on weather conditions during

winter and early spring. Late-sown crops are more

sensitive to cold temperatures during winter, but losses in

the density of plants might be compensated by a higher

number of tillers if conditions are favourable during the

beginning of spring.


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Turkey

Mixed weather conditions convenient for the sowing of winter cereals

Temperatures fluctuated around the average, but the

cumulated values for the period from 1 October to 15

November are above average at country level. Regarding

precipitation, October was almost dry except for the

regions of Bati Anadolu and Dogu Anadolu, where rainfall

events were frequent albeit with dry windows during mid-

October. The first days of November presented rainfall in

almost the entire country. The western regions received

around 15-20 mm of rainfall on 9 November, which

significantly replenished soil moisture storage, after which

it was mainly dry again. Appropriate dry windows allowed

the sowing of winter cereals to take place in October in

the eastern region, and progressively towards western

areas in November. Moreover, it is expected that the

replenished soil moisture will facilitate the rapid

emergence of seeds.

European Russia

Good progress of the sowing campaign, but slow initial growth in October

Below-average rainfall since late August persisted in the

southern half of Russia until mid-September, facilitating

the good progress of winter wheat sowing activities.

Abundant precipitation in the second half of September

hampered sowing activities in southern Russia, especially

in the Volgogradskaya, Rostovskaya, Stavropolskiy and

Krasnodarskiy regions, and some areas of the Central and

Near Volga Okrugs were also affected. As from the first

dekad of October, the weather conditions improved

considerably in the main wheat-producing regions,

allowing for the timely accomplishment of sowing

activities by early November throughout Russia. The

rainfall of late September and October favourably

replenished soil water storage, and the emergence of the

winter crops was adequate. However, the mild weather of

September and early October was abruptly followed by

colder-than-usual conditions in most of European Russia.

This period lasted from 10 October until about 5

November, with temperatures 2-5°C lower than usual,

which hampered the strengthening of seedlings before the

winter dormancy period. The poorly developed winter

crops could be more vulnerable to the harsh and freezing

weather conditions during winter. Mild winter and spring

conditions could improve the situation, however, as

occurred in 2015 and 2016.

Belarus

Meteorological conditions facilitated timely completion of the sowing campaign

From mid-August until early October, sparse precipitation

and mostly near- or above-average temperatures

provided good weather conditions for the sowing of winter

cereals. Dry topsoil conditions allowed the sowing

campaign of winter crops in general to be completed by

the end of September.

However, soils were overly dry in southern Belarus until

the beginning of October, which delayed adequate seed

germination. Meanwhile, in the northern part of the

country, sufficient soil moisture content and mild thermal

conditions facilitated the sprouting and emergence of

winter crops. In early October, excessive rainfall occurred

primarily in southern Belarus, but precipitation also

exceeded the long-term average in the northern regions,

hindering normal field activities. From 10 October until 15

November, daily temperatures remained below the

average by 2 to 4°C. During this cold spell, growth and crop

development slowed down considerably, and the

establishment of late-sown winter wheat was negatively

affected.


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3. Sugar beet review

Favourable overall yield outlook despite mediocre performance in France

For the EU as a whole, 2016 has been a good year for

sugar beet, with a yield forecast above both last year’s

level and the five-year average. The two predominant

factors contributing to the good overall performance this

year are (i) a fairly strong general trend of increasing

yields over the past decades, mainly attributed to

improving management and agro-technological

innovation; and (ii) the very favourable conditions that

prevailed in the beet-producing countries of central

Europe, such as Hungary, Austria, Croatia and Slovakia.

Even though these are fairly small producers, combined,

their forecasted double-digit increases in yields are

responsible for almost half the forecasted yield increase

at EU level.

In France, the largest EU sugar-beet producer, the yield

forecast is somewhat below the five-year average, due to

a difficult start to the season with prolonged overly wet

conditions and low radiation during spring and early

summer, which caused delays to sowing and crop

establishment, and high disease pressure. This was

followed by generally favourable relatively dry conditions

in July and August in France’s main beet-producing areas

in the northern part of the country. Dry conditions

continued throughout September (and into October),

however, affecting further growth and causing difficulties

to the start of the harvest season, albeit with a positive

effect on beet quality and low soil tare. In some parts,

irrigation was used to soften soils to the point that

harvesting was possible. The second half of October

presented fairly average autumn weather conditions, but

rain events have been very frequent since the beginning

of November, making the end of the harvesting period

more difficult. The main sugar-beet-producing regions in

the UK, the Netherlands and Germany presented a similar

general weather pattern, with similar challenges, but with

less extreme wet conditions at the beginning of the season

and somewhat less dry conditions during summer and

autumn. The yield forecasts for these countries are close

to the long-term trend.

In Poland, the third largest producer after France and

Germany, the season started with a water deficit and a

cold snap in mid-May, which may have impacted young

sugar-beet crops. Conditions improved since June,

however, and have remained favourable since, resulting in

an above-average yield.

In Spain, where sugar beet is irrigated, the crop benefited

from near optimal conditions throughout the season,

resulting in a steep yield increase, in accordance with the

technological trend.


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4. Crop yield forecasts

2015 2016 Avg 5yrs %16/15 %16/5yrs 2015 2016 Avg 5yrs %16/15 %16/5yrs

EU28 6,03 5,40 5,60 -10,4 -3,5 5,07 4,77 4,73 -6,1 +0,8

AT 5,70 5,76 5,39 +1,1 +6,7 5,54 5,61 5,38 +1,4 +4,3

BE 9,36 7,80 8,83 -16,7 -11,7 9,28 7,90 8,62 -14,9 -8,4

BG 4,53 5,06 4,10 +11,7 +23,4 4,04 4,37 3,86 +8,1 +13,1

CY - - - - - 2,54 1,04 1,85 -59,1 -43,8

CZ 6,36 5,98 5,71 -5,9 +4,7 5,44 4,87 4,93 -10,5 -1,3

DE 8,09 7,77 7,81 -4,0 -0,6 7,17 6,68 6,61 -6,8 +1,1

DK 7,95 7,15 7,34 -10,1 -2,7 6,11 5,21 5,78 -14,8 -9,9

EE 4,79 3,81 3,82 -20,4 -0,4 4,23 3,39 3,38 -20,0 +0,1

ES 2,92 3,51 3,07 +20,0 +14,4 2,58 3,42 2,76 +32,7 +24,2

FI 4,10 3,89 3,82 -5,2 +1,7 3,47 3,55 3,54 +2,0 +0,1

FR 7,80 5,52 7,20 -29,3 -23,4 7,12 5,47 6,50 -23,2 -15,9

GR 2,53 2,93 2,91 +15,9 +0,5 2,75 2,70 2,84 -1,9 -5,1

HR 5,33 5,26 4,95 -1,4 +6,3 4,49 4,61 4,37 +2,7 +5,5

HU 5,18 5,41 4,50 +4,5 +20,3 4,76 5,09 4,22 +6,9 +20,5

IE 10,66 9,84 9,23 -7,7 +6,7 8,58 7,97 7,71 -7,1 +3,3

IT 3,93 3,96 3,89 +0,8 +1,8 3,91 3,85 3,72 -1,7 +3,4

LT 5,24 4,50 4,53 -14,0 -0,5 4,00 3,45 3,46 -13,8 -0,4

LU 6,28 6,44 6,05 +2,4 +6,4 - - - - -

LV 5,03 4,11 3,90 -18,4 +5,4 3,83 2,72 2,93 -29,1 -7,2

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL 9,04 8,88 8,88 -1,7 +0,0 6,43 6,25 6,66 -2,8 -6,2

PL 4,57 4,26 4,44 -6,9 -4,0 3,53 3,65 3,62 +3,5 +0,8

PT 2,01 2,30 1,61 +14,2 +43,2 2,10 2,32 1,72 +10,6 +35,1

RO 3,78 3,92 3,44 +3,6 +14,0 3,46 3,59 3,10 +3,5 +15,7

SE 7,21 6,65 6,34 -7,9 +4,8 5,25 4,71 4,80 -10,1 -1,9

SI 5,11 5,06 5,08 -1,0 -0,4 4,63 4,88 4,56 +5,3 +7,1

SK 5,51 4,95 4,68 -10,2 +5,8 4,80 4,37 4,10 -9,0 +6,7

UK 8,98 8,08 7,89 -10,0 +2,4 6,69 5,95 6,12 -11,1 -2,8

CountryTOTAL WHEAT t/ha TOTAL BARLEY t/ha


EU28 6,28 5,62 5,83 -10,4 -3,5 3,48 3,35 3,33 -4,0 +0,5

AT 5,77 5,82 5,44 +0,9 +7,0 4,64 4,96 4,53 +7,0 +9,4

BE 9,36 7,80 8,83 -16,7 -11,7 - - - - -

BG 4,54 5,08 4,12 +11,8 +23,3 3,29 3,74 3,17 +13,4 +17,9

CY - - - - - - - - - -

CZ 6,36 5,98 5,71 -5,9 +4,7 - - - - -

DE 8,11 7,78 7,83 -4,0 -0,5 4,64 5,61 5,23 +20,7 +7,1

DK 7,95 7,15 7,34 -10,1 -2,7 - - - - -

EE 4,79 3,81 3,82 -20,4 -0,4 - - - - -

ES 2,97 3,69 3,23 +24,1 +14,1 2,66 2,69 2,19 +1,1 +22,5

FI 4,10 3,89 3,82 -5,2 +1,7 - - - - -

FR 7,93 5,62 7,34 -29,1 -23,4 5,66 4,04 5,26 -28,7 -23,2

GR 2,51 3,07 3,06 +22,2 +0,2 2,53 2,86 2,85 +12,7 +0,2

HR 5,33 5,26 4,95 -1,4 +6,3 - - - - -

HU 5,19 5,42 4,50 +4,6 +20,6 4,88 5,03 4,40 +3,1 +14,2

IE 10,66 9,84 9,23 -7,7 +6,7 - - - - -

IT 5,41 5,63 5,43 +4,0 +3,6 3,31 3,30 3,18 -0,3 +3,7

LT 5,24 4,50 4,53 -14,0 -0,5 - - - - -

LU 6,28 6,44 6,05 +2,4 +6,4 - - - - -

LV 5,03 4,11 3,90 -18,4 +5,4 - - - - -

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL 9,04 8,88 8,88 -1,7 +0,0 - - - - -

PL 4,57 4,26 4,44 -6,9 -4,0 - - - - -

PT 2,01 2,30 1,61 +14,2 +43,2 - - - - -

RO 3,78 3,92 3,44 +3,6 +14,0 - - - - -

SE 7,21 6,65 6,34 -7,9 +4,8 - - - - -

SI 5,11 5,06 5,08 -1,0 -0,4 - - - - -

SK 5,52 4,92 4,69 -10,9 +5,0 5,28 5,20 4,30 -1,5 +20,8

UK 8,98 8,08 7,89 -10,0 +2,4 - - - - -

CountrySOFT WHEAT t/ha DURUM WHEAT t/ha


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EU28 4,23 4,20 4,13 -0,8 +1,6 6,14 5,49 5,58 -10,7 -1,7

AT 4,92 4,37 4,66 -11,2 -6,2 5,99 6,33 5,99 +5,7 +5,6

BE - - - - - 9,28 7,90 8,62 -14,9 -8,4

BG - - - - - 4,04 4,37 3,86 +8,1 +13,1

CY - - - - - 2,54 1,04 1,85 -59,1 -43,8

CZ 5,43 4,72 4,96 -13,1 -4,8 5,46 5,18 4,87 -5,1 +6,5

DE 5,42 5,56 5,70 +2,5 -2,5 7,69 6,98 6,92 -9,2 +0,8

DK 5,96 5,05 5,67 -15,3 -11,0 6,76 6,09 6,31 -9,9 -3,4

EE 4,23 3,39 3,38 -20,0 +0,1 - - - - -

ES 2,64 3,47 2,82 +31,1 +23,1 2,20 3,15 2,41 +43,2 +30,3

FI 3,47 3,55 3,54 +2,0 +0,1 - - - - -

FR 6,55 5,10 5,98 -22,2 -14,7 7,31 5,58 6,70 -23,7 -16,7

GR - - - - - 2,75 2,70 2,84 -1,9 -5,1

HR - - - - - 4,49 4,61 4,37 +2,7 +5,5

HU 3,84 4,05 3,67 +5,5 +10,2 5,08 5,26 4,47 +3,7 +17,7

IE 7,72 7,36 7,21 -4,7 +2,0 10,21 8,90 9,31 -12,8 -4,4

IT - - - - - 3,91 3,85 3,72 -1,7 +3,4

LT 4,00 3,45 3,46 -13,8 -0,4 - - - - -

LU - - - - - - - - - -

LV 3,83 2,72 2,93 -29,1 -7,2 - - - - -

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL 6,43 6,25 6,66 -2,8 -6,2 - - - - -

PL 3,30 3,51 3,49 +6,3 +0,5 4,13 4,27 4,10 +3,4 +4,0

PT - - - - - 2,10 2,32 1,72 +10,6 +35,1

RO 2,29 2,48 2,33 +8,3 +6,4 3,91 3,96 3,41 +1,1 +16,1

SE 5,20 4,65 4,76 -10,5 -2,3 6,18 5,71 5,86 -7,6 -2,5

SI - - - - - 4,63 4,88 4,56 +5,3 +7,1

SK 4,74 4,31 4,04 -9,2 +6,6 4,99 4,52 4,38 -9,5 +3,0

UK 6,05 5,67 5,71 -6,3 -0,7 7,65 6,40 6,86 -16,4 -6,7

CountrySPRING BARLEY t/ha WINTER BARLEY t/ha


EU28 6,41 6,83 6,95 +6,5 -1,8 4,00 3,79 3,75 -5,1 +1,2

AT 8,68 11,12 9,98 +28,1 +11,4 4,32 4,58 4,40 +5,8 +4,1

BE 11,87 10,84 10,96 -8,7 -1,1 - - - - -

BG 5,41 5,09 5,62 -5,9 -9,4 - - - - -

CY - - - - - - - - - -

CZ 5,54 8,27 7,64 +49,4 +8,2 4,91 5,10 4,84 +4,0 +5,4

DE 8,72 9,22 9,95 +5,7 -7,4 5,67 5,65 5,50 -0,4 +2,7

DK - - - - - 6,33 5,93 6,08 -6,2 -2,5

EE - - - - - 3,83 3,12 3,00 -18,4 +4,1

ES 11,46 11,26 11,12 -1,8 +1,3 1,92 2,31 1,99 +20,4 +15,9

FI - - - - - 3,42 3,22 3,02 -6,1 +6,3

FR 8,38 8,01 9,11 -4,4 -12,1 4,71 4,41 4,84 -6,3 -8,8

GR 10,64 11,12 11,26 +4,5 -1,3 1,50 1,91 1,94 +27,5 -1,4

HR 6,47 7,54 6,01 +16,5 +25,5 - - - - -

HU 5,79 7,98 5,79 +37,9 +37,7 2,76 2,77 2,65 +0,5 +4,5

IE - - - - - - - - - -

IT 9,72 9,67 9,28 -0,5 +4,3 - - - - -

LT 4,81 7,12 6,38 +47,9 +11,5 2,78 2,42 2,37 -12,9 +2,2

LU - - - - - - - - - -

LV - - - - - 4,28 3,32 3,22 -22,3 +3,3

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL 10,82 11,03 10,79 +1,9 +2,2 - - - - -

PL 4,71 6,65 6,15 +41,2 +8,0 2,78 2,81 2,82 +1,3 -0,3

PT 8,45 8,43 8,30 -0,3 +1,5 0,86 0,95 0,86 +11,2 +10,6

RO 3,45 3,20 3,85 -7,1 -17,0 2,53 2,67 2,37 +5,6 +12,8

SE - - - - - 6,34 5,97 6,02 -5,8 -0,8

SI 8,97 8,90 7,85 -0,8 +13,4 - - - - -

SK 4,85 7,26 6,05 +49,6 +20,1 3,63 3,10 3,60 -14,8 -14,0

UK - - - - - - - - - -

CountryGRAIN MAIZE t/ha RYE t/ha


13


EU28 4,12 4,18 4,20 +1,3 -0,5 3,37 3,21 3,21 -4,8 +0,2

AT 5,29 5,62 5,26 +6,4 +6,9 2,98 3,03 3,23 +1,8 -6,2

BE - - - - - 4,28 4,00 4,37 -6,6 -8,5

BG 3,02 3,36 2,94 +11,1 +14,0 2,48 2,91 2,45 +17,6 +19,1

CY - - - - - - - - - -

CZ 4,72 4,88 4,64 +3,3 +5,3 3,43 3,28 3,28 -4,5 -0,1

DE 6,47 6,42 6,33 -0,8 +1,4 3,90 3,86 3,80 -1,2 +1,6

DK 5,13 5,06 5,41 -1,3 -6,5 4,28 3,68 3,94 -14,1 -6,7

EE - - - - - 2,77 2,32 2,03 -16,2 +14,5

ES 2,09 2,65 2,22 +27,1 +19,3 2,10 2,71 2,22 +28,9 +22,1

FI - - - - - 1,54 1,49 1,46 -3,3 +1,9

FR 5,44 4,98 5,31 -8,4 -6,1 3,54 3,26 3,43 -8,0 -5,0

GR - - - - - - - - - -

HR 3,91 3,84 3,94 -1,7 -2,5 2,58 3,05 2,78 +18,1 +9,8

HU 3,95 4,31 3,74 +9,3 +15,4 2,68 3,17 2,67 +18,5 +19,0

IE - - - - - - - - - -

IT - - - - - 2,29 2,52 2,32 +9,8 +8,6

LT 3,84 3,39 3,31 -11,8 +2,3 3,13 2,56 2,25 -18,4 +13,4

LU - - - - - - - - - -

LV - - - - - 3,33 2,50 2,31 -25,1 +8,1

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL - - - - - - - - - -

PL 3,52 3,57 3,58 +1,3 -0,3 2,85 2,75 2,80 -3,4 -1,6

PT 1,69 1,94 1,39 +14,8 +39,9 - - - - -

RO 3,50 3,78 3,37 +8,1 +12,1 2,50 2,73 2,29 +9,3 +19,5

SE 5,81 5,56 5,50 -4,3 +1,1 3,80 3,42 3,06 -10,1 +11,8

SI - - - - - - - - - -

SK - - - - - 2,69 2,86 2,64 +6,6 +8,5

UK 4,78 4,02 4,11 -15,9 -2,3 3,90 3,30 3,56 -15,4 -7,2

CountryTRITICALE t/ha RAPE AND TURNIP RAPE t/ha


EU28 71,89 73,76 71,83 +2,6 +2,7 32,85 32,35 32,22 -1,5 +0,4

AT 62,80 77,31 70,59 +23,1 +9,5 26,34 32,63 31,37 +23,9 +4,0

BE 85,08 78,25 77,81 -8,0 - 46,58 43,00 47,82 -7,7 -10,1

BG - - - - - 14,96 13,07 13,52 -12,7 -3,3

CY - - - - - - - - - -

CZ 59,38 66,14 64,00 +11,4 +3,3 22,26 26,03 26,72 +16,9 -2,6

DE 72,17 74,86 71,85 +3,7 +4,2 43,81 43,99 44,29 +0,4 -0,7

DK 66,90 64,21 63,97 -4,0 +0,4 42,10 41,97 41,02 -0,3 +2,3

EE - - - - - - - - - -

ES 95,87 97,68 89,44 +1,9 +9,2 31,87 32,19 30,73 +1,0 +4,8

FI 32,74 37,97 36,65 +16,0 - 24,31 27,11 26,30 +11,5 +3,1

FR 87,50 88,23 89,15 +0,8 -1,0 42,50 40,00 44,23 -5,9 -9,6

GR - - - - - 24,25 25,66 25,35 +5,8 +1,2

HR - 63,06 52,45 +15,7 +20,2 17,06 17,80 16,81 +4,3 +5,9

HU 57,66 69,16 53,97 +19,9 +28,1 22,65 27,28 24,18 +20,4 +12,8

IE - - - - - - - - - -

IT 57,01 57,84 55,93 +1,4 - 27,55 27,36 26,09 -0,7 +4,9

LT 50,61 53,38 51,70 +5,5 +3,3 17,00 17,11 16,23 +0,6 +5,4

LU - - - - - - - - - -

LV - - - - - 20,12 19,85 18,33 -1,4 +8,3

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL 83,30 81,86 81,21 -1,7 - 42,69 42,50 44,08 -0,4 -3,6

PL 52,00 53,45 52,79 +2,8 +1,3 21,70 22,55 22,27 +3,9 +1,3

PT - - - - - 18,62 19,31 17,84 +3,7 +8,2

RO 39,14 41,57 36,70 +6,2 +13,3 13,81 14,81 14,82 +7,3 -0,1

SE 60,80 64,66 63,46 +6,3 +1,9 34,73 33,23 33,42 -4,3 -0,6

SI - - - - - - - - - -

SK - - - - +18,2 - - - - -

UK 69,00 70,96 70,59 +2,8 +0,5 49,00 43,03 41,52 -12,2 +3,6

SUGAR BEETS t/haCountry

POTATO t/ha


14

Note: Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha per country (for rice more than 1000 ha per country) Sources: 2011-2016 data come from DG AGRICULTURE short term Outlook data (dated October 2016, received on 9/11/2016),

EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 9/11/2016) and EES (last update: 28/10/2016) 2016 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/11/2016) * The EU-28 figures do not include green maize forecasts for Belgium, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden and the United Kingdom since recent data on yields was not available

Note: Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha per country

Sources: 2011-2015 data come from USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO, Turkish Statistical Office, PSD-online

2016 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/11/2016)


EU28 1,86 2,00 1,93 +7,3 +3,2 38,76 41,59 42,71 +7,3 -2,6

AT 2,00 2,76 2,47 +38,4 +11,9 41,39 47,88 44,63 +15,7 +7,3

BE - - - - - - - - - -

BG 2,11 2,20 2,12 +4,5 +4,0 19,00 20,22 18,76 +6,4 +7,8

CY - - - - - - - - - -

CZ 2,05 2,38 2,29 +16,2 +3,9 29,13 37,86 36,54 +30,0 +3,6

DE 1,92 1,98 2,14 +3,4 -7,4 41,36 44,39 44,35 +7,3 +0,1

DK - - - - - 37,56 40,63 37,62 +8,2 +8,0

EE - - - - - - - - - -

ES 0,94 1,07 1,07 +14,5 -0,1 43,91 43,65 41,40 -0,6 +5,4

FI - - - - - - - - - -

FR 1,92 2,14 2,25 +11,7 -4,7 38,37 35,24 42,95 -8,1 -18,0

GR 2,30 2,45 2,47 +6,5 -0,7 - - - - -

HR 2,73 2,49 2,54 -8,6 -1,9 32,80 38,39 32,14 +17,0 +19,4

HU 2,53 2,89 2,43 +14,1 +18,9 23,41 30,71 24,83 +31,2 +23,7

IE - - - - - - - - - -

IT 2,17 2,21 2,23 +1,8 -0,9 48,66 51,20 50,79 +5,2 +0,8

LT - - - - - 26,36 34,57 33,33 +31,1 +3,7

LU - - - - - 41,17 48,00 45,88 +16,6 +4,6

LV - - - - - 28,80 28,19 27,73 -2,1 +1,6

MT - - - - - - - - - -

NL - - - - - 36,73 45,69 43,14 +24,4 +5,9

PL - - - - - 35,70 46,88 44,95 +31,3 +4,3

PT 1,24 0,90 0,80 -27,8 +12,4 - - - - -

RO 1,77 1,72 1,81 -2,7 -4,9 26,95 24,02 25,80 -10,9 -6,9

SE - - - - - - - - - -

SI - - - - - 48,70 47,18 42,10 -3,1 +12,1

SK 2,31 2,42 2,33 +4,9 +3,9 22,95 29,77 27,04 +29,7 +10,1

UK - - - - - - - - - -

GREEN MAIZE t/haCountry

SUNFLOWER t/ha

2015 2016 Avg 5yrs %16/15 %16/5yrs

BY 3,43 3,38 3,47 -1,4 -2,5

TR 2,90 2,69 2,69 -7,4 -0,1

UA 3,88 4,23 3,52 +9,0 +20,3

CountryWHEAT (t/ha)

2015 2016 Avg 5yrs %16/15 %16/5yrs

BY 3,33 3,51 3,24 +5,3 +8,1

TR 2,90 2,59 2,65 -10,8 -2,4

UA 2,95 3,24 2,57 +9,7 +26,0

CountryBARLEY (t/ha)

2015 2016 Avg 5yrs %16/15 %16/5yrs

BY 5,33 5,57 5,60 +4,5 -0,6

TR 9,30 9,17 8,39 -1,4 +9,3

UA 5,71 6,02 5,77 +5,5 +4,3

CountryGRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)


15

Atlas

Temperature regime


16

Precipitation


17


18


19

JRC MARS Bulletins 2016

Date Publication Reference

25 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 24 No. 1

22 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 24 No. 2

21 Mar Agromet analysis and

yield forecast

Vol. 24 No. 3

26 Apr Agromet analysis,

remote sensing, yield

forecast,

Vol. 24 No. 4

23 May Agromet analysis,


forecast and pasture

analysis, sowing

conditions

Vol. 24 No. 5

20 Jun Agromet analysis,


forecast, pasture update

Vol. 24 No. 6

25 Jul Agromet analysis,


forecast, rice analysis

Vol. 24 No. 7

22 Aug Agromet analysis,


forecast, pasture update

Vol. 24 No. 8

26 Sep Agromet analysis,


forecast

Vol. 24 No 9

24 Oct Agromet analysis,


forecast, rice analysis

Vol. 24 No. 10

21 Nov Agromet analysis and

yield forecast, sowing

conditions

Vol. 24 No. 11

19 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 24 No. 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in

Europe is an JRC - EC publication from AGRI4CAST

(JRC/D5 unit – Directorate Sustainable Resources)

MARS Bulletins are available under:

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports

B. Baruth, I. Biavetti, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, S. Garcia

Condado, S. Karetsos, R. Lecerf, R. Lopez, L. Nisini, L.

Panarello, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. Van den Berg, M. Van

der Velde.

Reporting support

G. Mulhern

Edition

B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer

Data production

AGRI4CAST – JRC D5-unit, ALTERRA (NL), MeteoGroup

(NL), VITO (BE) and CMCC (IT)

Contact

JRC–D5 / AGRI4CAST

[email protected]

MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Legal Notice:

Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer:

The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position.

Technical note:

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1975-2015.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

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