JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020 1 r Most of Europe experienced warmer-than-usual conditions during the review period (1 November to 8 December). Considering this period as a whole, the most distinct temperature anomalies were observed in regions surrounding the Baltic Sea, the Scandinavian Peninsula, and north-western Russia. In most other parts of Europe the high temperature surplus of November – the second warmest on record – was partly offset by the colder-than- usual conditions at the beginning of December. Autumn as a whole was the warmest in our records in most agricultural regions of eastern and northern Europe. Large parts of Italy, southern Spain, Sweden and Finland were distinctly wetter than usual. In contrast, drier-than- usual conditions were recorded in most of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe; most markedly in eastern Germany, Poland, southern Ukraine, northern Romania and Turkey. These weather conditions allowed most of the sowing of winter crops to be completed in regions were sowing remained delayed (eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania), as reported in the November issue of the Bulletin, albeit not always within the optimal window. As a consequence of the prevailing mild conditions, the build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat started much later than usual, and remains weak in most of western, southern, central and south-eastern Europe. The above- mentioned areas where crops are underdeveloped as a consequence of delayed sowing, are particularly vulnerable. Localised and minor frost-kill events are expected to have happened already in northern Romania, due to a cold air intrusion at the end of November and the beginning of December. According to our model, more widespread minor to moderate frost-kill events are likely to have occurred in the Volga okrug of European Russia. Pre-press version Issued: 14 December 2020 JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 12 JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe December 2020 Warmest autumn in eastern and northern Europe Slow build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat Contents: 1. Winter hardening and frost kill 2. Agrometeorological overview 3. Atlas Covers the period from 1 November to 8 December 2020
Transcript
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
1
r
Most of Europe experienced warmer-than-usual
conditions during the review period (1 November to 8
December). Considering this period as a whole, the most
distinct temperature anomalies were observed in regions
surrounding the Baltic Sea, the Scandinavian Peninsula,
and north-western Russia. In most other parts of Europe
the high temperature surplus of November – the second
warmest on record – was partly offset by the colder-than-
usual conditions at the beginning of December. Autumn as
a whole was the warmest in our records in most
agricultural regions of eastern and northern Europe.
Large parts of Italy, southern Spain, Sweden and Finland
were distinctly wetter than usual. In contrast, drier-than-
usual conditions were recorded in most of central, eastern
and south-eastern Europe; most markedly in eastern
Germany, Poland, southern Ukraine, northern Romania and
Turkey. These weather conditions allowed most of the
sowing of winter crops to be completed in regions were
sowing remained delayed (eastern Czechia, Slovakia,
Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania), as reported in the
November issue of the Bulletin, albeit not always within
the optimal window.
As a consequence of the prevailing mild conditions, the
build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat started much
later than usual, and remains weak in most of western,
southern, central and south-eastern Europe. The above-
mentioned areas where crops are underdeveloped as a
consequence of delayed sowing, are particularly
vulnerable.
Localised and minor frost-kill events are expected to have
happened already in northern Romania, due to a cold air
intrusion at the end of November and the beginning of
December. According to our model, more widespread
minor to moderate frost-kill events are likely to have
occurred in the Volga okrug of European Russia.
Pre-press version Issued: 14 December 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 12
JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe
December 2020
Warmest autumn in eastern and northern Europe Slow build-up of frost tolerance in winter wheat
Covers the period from 1 November to 8 December 2020
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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1 Winter hardening and frost kill
Hardening is the bio-physiological process whereby winter
cereals gain low-temperature tolerance to withstand
freezing conditions that occur during the winter dormancy
period.
Winter cereals are underdeveloped in some parts of
central and south-eastern Europe, including Czechia,
southern Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and
Bulgaria, due to abundant rainfall since the beginning of
October which caused delays to sowing and hampered
early development. In large parts of northern, eastern,
south-eastern and central Europe, thermal conditions
have been much milder than usual.
As a consequence of the above conditions, the hardening
of winter wheat started much later than usual and frost
tolerance remains weak in large parts of central, south-
eastern, western and southern Europe. Colder-than-usual
weather conditions at the end of November and the
beginning of December contributed to increased frost
tolerance in southern Germany, Czechia, Slovakia, Austria,
Slovenia and Hungary; nevertheless, winter wheat in these
regions is still only slightly hardened. Further east, in
central European Russia and eastern Ukraine, hardening
has reached an advanced stage according to our
simulations. Slightly to partially hardened winter wheat
can be observed at the margins of wheat production areas
in Scandinavia.
A cold air intrusion in eastern and south-eastern Europe at
the end of November and the beginning of December caused minimum temperatures to drop below -15°C
locally in northern and central Romania, northern
Scandinavia and large parts of European Russia (in Volga okrug, even below -20°C). According to our model, frost-
kill events are likely to have occurred in the Volga okrug
(more specifically, Orenburgskaya oblast) as a
consequence of inadequate frost tolerance of crops. More
localised and minor frost-kill events are expected to have
happened in northern Romania.
According to the short-range weather forecast, frost
tolerance will increase in Russia, with the exception of
some regions of the Volga and Southern okrugs, where
winter wheat will remain slightly hardened or not
hardened. Frost tolerance is also expected to increase in
Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries and eastern Poland.
Due to the warmer-than-usual weather forecast, loss of
frost tolerance could occur in Hungary and Slovakia. No
significant changes are foreseen for the rest of Europe.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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2 Agrometeorological overview
2.1 Meteorological review (1 November to 8 December 2020)
Warmer-than-usual conditions, with daily mean
temperature anomalies with respect to the long-term
average (LTA) ranging from +2°C to +6°C (locally higher),
were observed in all regions surrounding the Baltic Sea,
the Scandinavian Peninsula, and north-western Russia.
Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were
observed in most other parts of Europe (except large parts
of south-eastern Europe), with daily mean temperature
anomalies of up to +2°C. The colder weather conditions at
the beginning of December mitigated the temperature
anomalies of November, which was the second warmest
November on record for most of Europe (after 2015) and
the warmest for the globe.
Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in most of
central, eastern and south-eastern Europe. In these
regions, total precipitation anomalies for the analysis
period ranged from -80% to -50% (with respect to the
LTA). Higher deficits were recorded in Turkey.
Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large
parts of Italy, southern Spain, Sweden and Finland. Total
precipitation anomalies were mainly up to +80%
compared with the LTA, but in north-eastern Italy and
southern Spain values above +140% were observed.
Severe wind events were reported in the UK in mid-
November, while floods, heavy rainfall and snowfall affected Italy (especially northern regions) at the
beginning of December, due to a deep stationary trough.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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2.2 Autumn review (September, October, November)
Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed
throughout Europe. The most distinct mean daily
temperature anomalies (+2 °C to +4 °C with respect to the
LTA) occurred in eastern and northern Europe, where this
year’s autumn was the warmest in our records (since
1979).
Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were
observed in the rest of Europe, with daily mean
temperature anomalies up to +2 °C.
Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in large
regions of south-eastern Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and
European Russia. In these regions, total precipitation
anomalies mostly ranged from -80% to -30%, with
respect to the LTA.
Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large
regions of eastern and northern Europe and in some areas
of western Europe. Anomalies recorded for total autumn
precipitation mostly ranged from +30% to +80% (with
respect to the LTA); locally even higher.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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2.3 Weather forecast (12-18 December 2020)
Weather conditions will be mainly determined by the
current trough over the central Mediterranean, moving
eastward at the beginning of the forecast period, and by
another one deepening into central Europe and the
Mediterranean after an anticyclonic break.
Warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast in Europe.
Daily mean temperature anomalies (with respect to the
LTA) predicted for most regions range from +2°C to +4°C.
In south-eastern Europe and in the Scandinavian
Peninsula, anomalies will range from +4°C to +6°C (locally
higher). In some regions of western and central Europe, in Italy and the UK, slightly warmer-than-usual-conditions are forecast, with daily mean temperature
anomalies up to +2°C.
Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of accumulated
precipitation, are expected in large parts of central-
eastern Europe.
Wet conditions, with accumulated precipitation ranging
from 40 mm to 60 mm (locally higher), are predicted in
large areas of the Iberian and Italian peninsulas, southern
France, the UK and Ireland, Norway, Greece and Turkey. Total precipitation of 10 mm to 40 mm is forecast in
other parts of Europe.
The long-range weather forecast for December,
January and February indicates that warmer-than-usual
conditions are likely to occur in most of eastern and
northern Europe, as well as the Mediterranean region.
JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 12 – 14 December 2020
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3 Atlas For more maps and graphs, consult the JRC MARS Explorer through https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
26 Oct Agromet analysis, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast
Vol. 28 No 10
23 Nov Agromet analysis, pasture analysis, sowing update, harvesting update
Vol. 28 No 11
14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12
The JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)
JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins
Analysis and reports A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, L. Seguini, L. Panarello, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, A. Zucchini
Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern
Edition M. van den Berg
Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)
Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.
Technical note:
The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.
Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.
Pre-press version. This is a pre-press version of the JRC MARS Bulletin, which, after final editing will be formally published by the Publications Office of the European Union.
