PROYECCIONES CLIMÁTICAS DE UN CONJUNTO DE MODELOS CLIMÁTICOS REGIONALES (RCMS) PARA EL PIRINEO: ANÁLISIS DE INCERTIDUMBRE E IMPACTOS ESPERADOS

JUAN IGNACIO LÓPEZ MORENOSERGIO M. VICENTE SERRANODPT. PROCESOS GEOAMBIENTALES Y CAMBIO GLOBALINSTITUTO PIRENAICO DE ECOLOGÍA, C.S.I.C.

STUDY OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES

- IT REMAINED UNSTUDIED- COMPLEX AREA FOR REPRODUCING CLIMATIC CONDITIONS: GOOD TEST FOR RCMS- IT IS A VALUABLE ECOLOGICAL SITE- POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE AND WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY

OBJECTIVE:-TO ASESS THE POSSIBLE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS-TO ANALYSE THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL PATTERNS OF EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN PYRENEES-TO CONDUCT IMPACT ANALYSIS

6 RCMS FROM PRUDENCE PROJECT: DMI, HC, METNO, ICTP, SMHI, UCM

Generalized Additive Models (GAMs)

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE

1.1 CREATION OF LAYERS OF REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES (1961-1990) FROM LOCAL OBSERVATIONS: Precip., Tmax., Tmin.,Tavg. At annual and seasonal basis

1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD

1.2 COMPARISON OF RCMSCONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

REFERENCE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION

REFERENCE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE MODELLED BY RCMS

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION MODELLED BY RCMS

1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD

1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD

Annual precipitation Annual temperature

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Error (ºC)Error (%)

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD

1.2 COMPARISON OF CONTROL RUNS (1961-1990) OF RCMS WITH REFERENCE CLIMATOLOGIES

1- VALIDATION OF RCMs FOR THE CONTROL PERIOD

MBE MAE MBE MAE MBE MAE MBE MAE

Winter -0,19 0,26 0,30 0,88 1,57 2,01 1,11 1,26

Spring 0,03 0,21 -0,45 1,10 0,97 1,21 0,27 1,16

Summer 0,08 0,26 0,22 1,18 1,46 1,58 0,85 1,38

Autumn -0,08 0,23 -0,20 0,83 1,37 1,50 0,61 1,19

Annual -0,04 0,24 -0,04 1,00 1,34 1,58 0,71 1,25

PRECIPITATION TMAX. TMIN. TAVG.

2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES

COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change in annual precipitation (A2) Change in annual temperature (A2)

Change precipitation (A2) Change in temperature (A2)

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

Change (%)Change (ºC)

P1

P2

P3

P4

PA

T1

T2

T3

T4

TA

DJF

MAM

JJA

SON

2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES

COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

2. MAGNITUDE OF THE PROJECTED CHANGES

COMPARISON OF CONTROL AND A2 AND B2 SCENARIOS RUNS IN ORDER TO ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2

Winter 1,45 -0,24 3,05 1,80 3,08 1,78 3,07 1,79

Spring -18,39 -6,88 3,17 2,01 2,82 1,77 2,99 1,89

Summer -43,71 -38,40 5,91 4,79 5,12 4,02 5,51 4,41

Autumn -7,05 -9,33 4,41 2,98 4,19 2,83 4,30 2,91

Annual -14,80 -10,73 4,16 2,90 3,81 2,61 3,99 2,75

PRECIPITATION TMAX. TMIN. TAVG.

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.2 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

DJF MAM

JJA SON

N

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.1 PRECIPITATION INTENSITY

DJFMAM

JJA SON

N

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.2 CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE

Expected change on surface with positive annual climatic water balance (mm):1960/1990 → 2070/2100

1960-1990(63.975km2)

2070-2100B2 (39.900 km-2)

2070-2100A2 (32.625 km-2)

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.3 Snow accumulation

Observed climate Modified climate

A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.3 Snow accumulation

MSWE (mm) Date of MSWE (days) Duration of snowpack (days)

units percentage units percentage units percentage

MSWE -245 mm 58.70% -211 mm 50.30% -225 mm 53.80%

Date of MSWE -34 days 21.80% -35 days 22.60% -32 days 20.50%

DSP -74 days 41.70% -67 days 37.70% -69 days 39.20%

units percentage units percentage units percentage

MSWE -245 mm 58.70% -211 mm 50.30% -225 mm 53.80%

Date of MSWE -34 days 21.80% -35 days 22.60% -32 days 20.50%

DSP -74 days 41.70% -67 days 37.70% -69 days 39.20%

Change in temperature and precipitation

Change in all variables

A2 scenario, central Pyrenees at 2060 m a.s.l

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.3 Snow accumulation

Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snow accumulation in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios

SRES B2 SRES A2

1500 m

2000 m

2500 m

3000 mNN

32 %

18 %

8%

5 %

8 %

5 %

70 %

46 %

22%

11 %

3. STUDIES OF IMPACTS

3.3 Snow accumulation

Projected change (HIRHAM model) in snowpack duration in the Pyrenees for B2 and A2 emission scenarios

SRAS B2 SRAS A2

44 %

20 %

14 %

11 %

78 %

49 %

23 %

10 %

1500 m

2000 m

2500 m

3000 m

FUTURE RESEARCH

To use transient RCMs at higher spatial resolution (ENSEMBLES and ACQWA projects)

Potential impacts of climate change on water resources availability (hydrological modelling)

More information in…..

-López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S. and Beniston M. (2008). Climate change prediction over complex areas: spatial variability of uncertainties and expected changes over the Pyrenees from a set of regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 28 (11): 1535-1550.

-López-Moreno, J.I., Goyette, S., Beniston, M., Alvera, B. (2008). Sensitivity of the snow energy balance to climatic changes: implications for the evolution of snowpack in the Pyrenees in the 21st century. Climate Research 36: 206-217.

-López-Moreno, J.I., García-Ruiz, J.M. and Beniston, M. (2008). Environmental Change and water management in the Pyrenees. Facts and future perspectives for Mediterranean mountains. Global and Planetary Change 66 (3-4): 300-312.

-López-Moreno, J.I. and Beniston, M. (en prensa). Daily intensity precipitation for the 21st century: seasonal changes over an Atlantic-Mediterranean gradient in the Pyrenean mountains. Theoretical and Applied Climatology.