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Juba Regions
Deyr 2010/11
January 26, 2011
Information for Better Livelihoods
Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit
Somalia
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage
Field Access and Field Data Locations
- Normal access in Buale, Sakow, north of Jilib district of M. Juba and Afmadow, Hagar, Jammame, Kismayo districts in L. Juba;
- Key informants in south Jilib including Jilib town and the entire Badhadhe district
Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agropastoralists) Southern Agropastoral are more Agro pastoral Afmadow, L. Juba, than those in the M.
Juba and Jammame (L.Juba) who are more agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases
Lower Juba Agropastoral are more pastoral. Main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases.
Riverine (M. and L. Juba)• Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection
of bush products) • Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase
Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income
• 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) Primary sources of income of poor: sale of
livestock & livestock products Primary sources of food of poor: purchase Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel,
cattle, sheep/goat
• Start of Season: started late, 1st dekad of November. However, some light showers were received in 3rd Dekad of October 2010.
• Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell in November-December months.
• Amount of Rainfall: Insignificant
ClimatePerformance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall
ClimateVegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
ClimateVegetation Conditions
Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover
Civil Security Situation:
• Relatively stable but tense
Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition:
• High impact • Drastically reduced humanitarian
access and interventions.• Pull out (August-Sept) of 2 major
international NGOs (World vision and Horn relief) mainly implementing health and nutrition, wash and livelihood interventions.
Civil Insecurity
Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster
AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Estimates
Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates
Districts
Deyr 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealDeyr 2011 as
% of Deyr 2010
Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr
PWA(1995-2009)
Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum
Afmadow 32 - 32 26% 15% 78%
Hagar - - - - - -
Badhaadhe - - - - - -
Jamaame 75 75 7% 14% 32%
Kismaayo 20 20 14% 10% 9%
Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total
127 0 127 7% 9% 18%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Cereal Production Estimates
DistrictsDeyr 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealDeyr 2011 as
% of Deyr 2010
Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr
PWA(1995-2009)
Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2005-2009)Maize Sorghum
Bu'aale 60 - 60 3% 6% 6%
Jilib 60 - 60 2% 5% 8%
Saakow 40 - 40 1% 2% 1%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total
160 0 160 2% 4% 4%
AgricultureCereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize
Juba Hoose (Lower) Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season
Districts Deyr 2011 Production in MT Total CerealDeyr 2011 as
% of Deyr 2010
Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA
(1995-2009)
Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2005-2009)
Afmadow32 - 32 26% 15% 78%
Hagar - - - - - -
Badhaadhe - - - - - -
Jamaame 115 115 5% 14% 12%
Kismaayo 20 20 14% 10% 9%
Juba Hoose (Lower) Deyr 2011 Total
167 0 167 5% 10% 12%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Off-Season Cereal Production Estimates plus Off-Season
Districts
Deyr 2011 Production in MT
Total CerealDeyr 2011 as
% of Deyr 2010
Deyr 2011 as % of Deyr PWA
(1995-2009)
Deyr 2011 as % of 5 year
average(2005-2009)
Maize Sorghum
Bu'aale100 - 100 3% 6% 6%
Jilib 120 - 120 2% 5% 8%
Saakow 68 - 68 1% 2% 1%
Juba Dhexe (Middle) Deyr 2011 Total
288 0 288 3% 6% 5%
AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates
(L/M Juba)
Deyr Cereal Production Estimates in Somalia
Regions
Deyr 2010 Production in MT
Rice Cowpea Sesame OnionsOff-Season
CowpeaOff-Season
SesamePepper Total
Juba Dhexe (Middle)
0 50 150 0 50 150 0 400
Juba Hoose (Lower)
0 50 250 0 0 100 0 400
TOTAL 0 100 400 0 50 250 0 800
Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Middle Juba
Regional Trend in
Deyr Cereal Production
(Middle Juba)
Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus
Off-season (Middle Juba)
Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Middle Juba
Regional Trend in
Annual Cereal Production
(Middle Juba)
Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Plus Off season in
Lower Juba
Regional Trend in
Deyr Cereal Production (Lower Juba)
Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Lower Juba)
Agriculture Annual Cereal Production in Lower Juba
Regional Trend in
Annual Cereal Production
(Lower Juba)
AgricultureDeyr 2010 Assessment Photos
Planted Farms Not Germinated, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Recede Cultivation in Dhesheks, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Planted Farms Not Germinated, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Insignificant recede cultivation, Jambarow Jammame, L. Juba, Dec ‘10.
Deyr ’10/11 Local Cereal Flow: Cereals come from Juba riverine (maize) and Sakow agropastoral (sorghum) into the interior of the region.
Agriculture
AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions
Regional Trend in cereal prices (maize) -
Middle Juba
Regional Trend in
Cereal Prices (maize) in Lower Juba
Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010
Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010, R=1.
Factors influencing cereal prices:
• Poor maize and sorghum production in agropastoral
• High maize demand (Juba inland)
Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability
Factors Influencing Wage Labor rates in agricultural districts.
Availability:
• Reduced agricultural activities following the seasonal rainfall failure.
•Limited agricultural inputs, which curtailed irrigational infrastructure
•Low capital for investments hindering employment opportunities.
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions
Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010
Middle Juba
Lower Juba
Factor Influencing ToT decline:
• Significant increase in maize prices.
•Decreased daily labour wage rates
LivestockRangeland Conditions and
Livestock Migration, Dec ’10
• Poor pasture across the region except river banks which is infested with tsetse fly.
• Poor water availability in the key pastoral areas.
• Poor livestock body conditions except camel.
Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production
Region Conception (Deyr ’10/11)
Calving/ kidding (Deyr ’10/11)
Milk production (Deyr ’10/11)
Expected calving/ kidding Jan-June ‘11
Trends in Herd Size (Deyr ’10/11)
Livelihoods Livestock species
Juba Camel: LowCattle: Low to NoneSheep/Goats: None to low
Camel: MediumCattle: High to Medium Sheep/Goats: Medium to High
Cattle: Very PoorCamel: Average
Camel: Medium to LowCattle: MediumSheep/Goats: None to Low
Southeast Pastoral
Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11
Southern Inland Pastoral
Camel: Same as Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 and expected to sustain unchanged till Jun. ‘11Cattle: Below Baseline. Sustained unchanged between Jun – Dec ’10 with the similar pattern expected till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Below Baseline. Decreased by 9% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to increase by 3% till Jun ‘11
Juba Agro-pastoral
Cattle: Same as Baseline. Increased by 6% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 11% till Jun. ‘11Sheep/goats: Above Baseline. Increased by 3% between Jun – Dec ’10 but expected to decline by 3% till Jun. ‘11
Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos
Poor Cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Afmadow, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10
Cattle Migration from North Sakow to Jilib Riverine, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘’10
Poor Lactating Cattle Body Condition. Jilib, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 10.
LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions
Regional Trend in Cattle Prices
in Middle Juba
Regional Trend in Cattle Prices
in Lower Juba
Middle Juba.
Lower Juba.
Factors Influencing local cattle prices:
•Disruption of Garissa market due to poor Deyr 2010/11 rainfall performance resulting in poor pasture and shortage of water along the livestock trekking route to Garissa market.
•Poor livestock body condition
Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade
Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions
Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Middle Juba
Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Lower Juba
Factors influencing Terms of Trade (cattle to maize):
• High cereal prices
• Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and low demand
• Disruption of Garissa market
Trends in Imported Commodity Prices
Factors Influencing Commercial Import Price Increases (last six months)
• Increasing global prices
• Increased taxation on commercial imports due to growing illegal tax collections
• Failed local cereal production and the need to import more commercial goods.
Markets
NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions
Region NutritionSurveys
(Oct - ec10)
Rapid MUAC Screening (%
<12.5cm & <11.5 cm)
Health Information System Info
TFC/OTP/SFC
Other relevant information – Key driving factors
Summary of analysis and
change from Gu 10
ML Juba Juba PastoralGAM =30.7% SAM =7.8% .5% (FSNAU & partners, December ’10, R=1)
Juba RiverineGAM =29.7% SAM = 6.4%
(FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)
Juba Agro-pastoralGAM =26.1% and SAM of 6.2% (FSNAU & partners, December10, R=1)
Kismayo IDP -N=1185MUAC<12.5cm or oedema= 12.4%. R=2
MUAC<11.5cm or oedema= 0.7%. R=2
HIS data show high (>20%) and fluctuating number of acutely malnourished children reported in facilities in all livelihood s( Source: SRCS , AFREC, HIS Data , Sept- December 10 R=3)
OTP admission show mixed trends, in the number of severely malnourished children admitted in OTP –with high and increasing trends in pastoral, high and stable number in agro-pastoral and high and fluctuating in the riverine livelihood ‘s facilities ( Source: SRCS , AFREC, MSF, HIS Data , Jan-June’10 R=3)
Aggravating factors-High morbidity – 21.8%,22.6% and 39.4% reportedly ill in pastoral, agro-pastoral and riverine livelihoods respectively-616 cases of AWD reported in November10 in the two regions-Limited access to food due to drought and insecurity- Increasing food insecurity at the HouseholdLimited/disrupted humanitarian assistance-Poor child feeding practice-Poor access to safe water and sanitation facilities-Reduced milk access due to outmigration and low livestock productionNegative impact of the withdrawal of INGO providing health and nutrition services in Aug.’10Restricted immunization activities
Mitigating factors-Limited social support from the local community & I/LNGOSale of fodder among riverine provides income for food/non-food itemsIncreased charcoal burning for income (but with long term negative impact on environment)
Juba Pastoral – Very Critical- deteriorated from Serious in Gu10
Juba RiverineVery Critical –No change from Gu’10.
Juba Agro-pastoral: Very Critical –Deteriorated from Critical levels in Gu10
NutritionNutrition Situation Estimates
Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011
Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010
IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation
Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Riverine – Sakow, Jilib & Jamame (HE: 100%P, AFLC: Middle 50%M); Buale (HE: 100%P, AFLC: 25%M); Agropastoral and S.E Pastoral – High Risk, HE: 25%P, AFLC: 75%P.
• Acute malnutrition: Critical to Very Critical• Food Access: Limited access of food and availability are average except Juba Riverine • Water Access: Severe water shortage• Destitution/Displacement: Emerged destitutions and seeking refuge to Kenya Refugee camps• Coping: Distress coping strategies• Livelihood Assets: Good production in Agropastoral areas and livestock recovery in terms of body condition
and livestock reproduction and holdings
• Main Causes: Consecutive seasons of average rainfall poor crop productions in Agropastoral areas Poor livestock production due to limited pasture and water availability South-East Pastoral, Lower Juba Agropastoral and southern Agropastoral: deteriorated due to poor livestock
and crop production, low livestock prices and relatively low ToT between cereals and local quality goats Juba Riverine: Crop production failure due to severe moisture stress
MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONESMAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts
Affected Regions and District UNDP 2005 Rural Population
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Middle Juba Bu'aale 45,901 0 7,000 8,000 9,000
Jilib 83,464 5,000 11,000 12,000 13,000
Saakow/Salagle 54,773 4,000 6,000 10,000 8,000
SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000
Lower Juba Afmadow/Xagar 44,212 0 0 7,000 3,000
Badhaadhe 32,828 0 0 7,000 2,000
Jamaame 106,734 6,000 14,000 12,000 17,000
Kismaayo 77,334 0 0 9,000 6,000
SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000
GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000
IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones
Affected Regions and Livelihood ZoneEstimated
Population by Livelihood Zones
Assessed and High Risk Population in AFLC and HE
Gu 2010 Deyr 2010/11
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis
(AFLC)
Humanitarian Emergency
(HE)
Middle Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 10,984 0 0 0 0
Juba Pump Irrigated Riv 17,297 4,000 6,000 3,000 6,000 Lower Juba Agro-Past 8,780 0 0 2,000 1,000 South-East Pastoral 18,232 0 0 4,000 1,000 Southern Agro-Past 46,816 0 0 12,000 4,000 Southern Inland Past 22,725 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 59,304 5,000 18,000 9,000 18,000 SUB-TOTAL 184,138 9,000 24,000 30,000 30,000
Lower Juba Coastal pastoral: goats & cattle 33,354 0 0 0 0
Lower Juba Agro-Past 70,183 0 0 14,000 7,000 South-East Pastoral 38,810 0 0 9,000 3,000 Southern Agro-Past 11,637 0 0 3,000 1,000 Southern Inland Past 50,119 0 0 0 0 Southern Juba Riv 57,005 6,000 14,000 9,000 17,000 SUB-TOTAL 261,108 6,000 14,000 35,000 28,000
GRAND TOTAL 445,246 15,000 38,000 65,000 58,000
TOTAL AFFECTED POPULATION IN AFLC & HE 53,000 123,000
District UNDP 2005 Urban Population
Acute Food and Livelihood Crisis (AFLC)
Deyr 10/11
Humanitarian Emergency (HE)
Deyr 10/11
Total in AFLC or HE as % of Urban population
Deyr 10/11
Middle Juba
Bu'aale 13,588 0 7,000 52
Jilib 29,951 0 15,000 50
Saakow/Salagle 11,200 0 4,000 36
Sub-Total 54,739 0 26,000 47
Lower Juba
Afmadow/Xagar 7,122 2,000 0 28
Badhaadhe 5,812 2,000 0 34
Jamaame 22,415 8,000 0 36
Kismaayo 89,333 16,000 0 18
Sub-Total 124,682 28,000 0 22
IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District
The End