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Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

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Preliminary results on the assessment of impacts of climate change on global plant diversity. Presented at Tyndall Centre, Norwich, UK, by Julian Ramirez
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Towards the Wallace Initiative: Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT Bioversity International
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Page 1: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Towards the Wallace Initiative:

Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant

biodiversityJulián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis

International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, CIAT

Bioversity International

Page 2: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

The Wallace Initiative framework:

1. Assessment of impacts of climate change on species distributions to:

– Determine refugia– Improve knowledge of risks of exceeding certain

levels of change by means of determining extinction rates

2. Map potential corridors for species3. Potential refugia, carbon dist., and design of

REDD mechanisms4. Driving of protected area design in the 21st

century5. Provide critical conclusions to aid the

development of adaptation plans

Page 3: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

1. Impact of climate change on species distributions

Data: GBIF inputs• Very preliminary approach using 33,004 taxa

– Using the entire GBIF database– Selecting species with at least 10 unique data points– 67,039 species (15,215,524 occurrences)– Correcting georreferences

• Is the record in land or sea?• Is in the country/department/locality it says it is?• Is within the environmental niche of the species?

– 65,991 selected species (14,157,497 occurrences)– Run for 33,004 (time matters)– Further taxonomical/geographic corrections to be

implemnetdSource: Conservation International

Page 4: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

The data: current and future climates

• Current climates from WorldClim– 19 bioclimatic indices at 10 arc-minutes

• Future climates from downscaled GCM outputs– 18 models at 10 arc-minutes spatial resolution– For 2050s– Under the A2a emission scenario– 19 bioclimatic variables as for WorldClim– Control run with the average climate of all

GCMs

Page 5: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

The approach• Maximum entropy as a very accurate algorithm for

niche modeling• 10 or more points for each of the 33,004 taxa• Only one future projection (control future scenario)• Current: two extreme migration scenarios

– Unlimited migration– Null migration

• Measures of diversity and area loss– Per AVOID region and globally

• Within Protected Areas• Overall

• Current extent of conserved biodiversity within protected areas (in situ gap analysis)

Page 6: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: distribution of protected areas

• Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)

• Holding a great amount of biodiversity

Page 7: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: protected areas per AVOID region

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

International protected area (%)

Nat

ion

al p

rote

cted

are

a (%

)

Europe

Central America

Germany

Saudi Arabia

Brazil

Caribbean

South Korea

Mexico

Proportion of nationally and internationally protected area

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

Maximum hotspot overall

Ma

xim

um

ho

tsp

ot

wit

hin

PA

s Complete representativeness

Average representativeness

UK

World

Mexico

US

South AfricaNorth Africa

Middle eastSaudi Arabia

West Africa

BrazilCurrent extent of in situ conservation

Some issues in highly diverse areas… Global biodiversity currently well conserved

Page 8: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Modeling approach

• Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm– Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous

communities in the Amazon

Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates

NULL MIGRATION

UNLIMITEDMIGRATION

Potential habitatexpansion

NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION

Page 9: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

CURRENT

Results: Current and future predicted species richness

• Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa

• Displacement and loss of niches

NULL MIGRATIONUNLIMITED MIGRATION

Page 10: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: changes in species richness

• Null migration: losses everywhere

• Unlimited migration: mostly displacement

Page 11: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: changes within AVOID regions

• Changes in species richness under both migration scenarios

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Ru

ssia

Sa

ud

i Ara

bia

Re

st o

f Ce

ntr

al A

sia

Ind

on

esi

a

Ch

ina

Ca

na

da

Mid

dle

Ea

st

No

rth

Afr

ica

Jap

an

Ind

ia

Re

st o

f So

uth

Asi

a

So

uth

Afr

ica

Re

st o

f Ea

st A

sia

Po

lan

d

Wo

rld

We

st A

fric

a

So

uth

ern

an

d E

ast

Afr

ica

US

Au

stra

lia

Eu

rop

e

So

uth

Ko

rea

Re

st o

f Au

stra

lasi

a

So

uth

Am

eri

ca

Me

xico

Italy

Bra

zil

Ca

rib

be

an

Ge

rma

ny

UK

Ce

ntr

al A

me

rica

Fra

nce

Null migration

Unlimited migration

Page 12: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC

• No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions

• There are regions with gains in species richness, but fairly due to displacement of niches

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Percent of area with loss within PAs [UM]

Ch

an

ge

in s

pe

cie

s r

ich

ne

ss

wit

hin

P

As

[U

M]

Caribbean

Central America

France

Germany

Australia

ItalyMexico

South AmericaEurope West Africa

South KoreaBrazilMiddle EastUS

Page 13: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC

• Expected changes within protected areas (PAs) sometimes occur at a greater extent

• Current gaps in in situ conservation to be larger in changing climates

• Current protected areas to be strengthened, expanded, or re-located if necessary

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

-1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0

Change in species richness [NM]

Ch

ang

e in

sp

ecie

s ri

chn

ess

wit

hin

Pas

[N

M]

South America

Central America

France

Australasia

Germany

CaribbeanBrazil

US

Globe

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400

Change in species richness [NM]

Ch

ang

e in

sp

ecie

s ri

chn

ess

wit

hin

Pas

[N

M]

France

Central America

Germany Caribbean

South Korea

NULL MIGRATION

UNLIMITED MIGRATION

Page 14: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC

• Loss in extent of in situ conservation

• Loss of suitable habitats for several species

• Opposite cases?

• Mixed conditions?

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

-1000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0

Change in species richness w ithin PAs [NM]

Ch

ang

e in

rep

rese

nta

tivi

ty [

NM

] (%

)

Saudi Arabia

Middle East

Central Asia

North Africa

CentraAmerica France Germany

Caribbean

Mexico

Europe

SouthAmerica

Globe

NULL MIGRATION

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200

Change in species richness within PAs [UM]

Ch

ang

e in

rep

rese

nta

tivi

ty [

UM

] (%

)Saudi Arabia

Middle East

CentralAmerica

France

Italy

MexicoGermany

Caribbean

Central Asia

China

UNLIMITED MIGRATION

(+)RPT(-)DIV

(-)RPT(-)DIV

(+)RPT(-)DIV

(+)RPT(+)DIV

(+)RPT(-)DIV

(-)RPT(+)DIV

Page 15: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Refugia identification

• Migration patterns– Population plasticity– Population migration rate

• Cellular automaton

• Select similar migration patterns

Page 16: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Refugia identification

• Intensification of deforestation processes: where and when to locate a reserve?

Cumulative detections between 2003 and 2009Counted as novelty when probability >= 0.9

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

6/2

6/2

00

3

9/2

6/2

00

3

12

/26

/20

03

3/2

6/2

00

4

6/2

6/2

00

4

9/2

6/2

00

4

12

/26

/20

04

3/2

6/2

00

5

6/2

6/2

00

5

9/2

6/2

00

5

12

/26

/20

05

3/2

6/2

00

6

6/2

6/2

00

6

9/2

6/2

00

6

12

/26

/20

06

3/2

6/2

00

7

6/2

6/2

00

7

9/2

6/2

00

7

12

/26

/20

07

3/2

6/2

00

8

6/2

6/2

00

8

9/2

6/2

00

8

12

/26

/20

08

3/2

6/2

00

9

Intense habitatdegradation period

Detections to 2009… but can be extrapolatedto 2100

Date

Number ofPixels with

LUC

Test area inBolivia

Page 17: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Conclusions

• In situ conservation needs to be oriented under the context of climate change– Areas to be strengthened (more control)– Areas to be expanded– Areas to be re-located (if migration does occur)

• Measuring impacts within each PA is required• Conservation must be focused on priority

protected areas– Amount of diversity– Predicted loss in suitable habitats– Number of species likely to be extinct and… most

important… WHEN?

Page 18: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Next steps… scientific rigor

• A far more detailed approach is required including– Individual GCM results– Other emission and policy scenarios– All GBIF species with more taxonomic and

georreferencing corrections– Other time slices: 2020s, 2030s, 2040s…– Validation metrics of Maxent models– Intermediate migration scenarios– Measure the number of extinct species for each

region

Page 19: Julian R - Evaluating the impact of climate change on global plant biodiversity

Next steps… analysis of policy implications

• Similarities/dissimilarities between regions– Do current criteria for PA selection stand up to

climate change?– What makes one protected area system more

effective than another in combating climate change? [Australasia vs. South America]

– What needs to change?

• What levels of biodiversity loss should be we preparing for? Which would be ‘acceptable’?


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