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July 16, 2008

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Alachua County Energy conservation strategies commission presentation to: the Alachua County Planning Commission. July 16, 2008. Contents. Background on the ECSC Community Challenges Rising Energy Costs, Climate Change, Peak Oil Community Opportunities - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Alachua County Energy conservation strategies commission presentation to: the east Gainesville Development Corporation

Alachua County Energy conservation strategies commission

presentation to:the Alachua County Planning Commission

July 16, 2008

1ContentsBackground on the ECSCCommunity ChallengesRising Energy Costs, Climate Change, Peak OilCommunity OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient community2Alachua County Commissionwants to do its part to reduce or mitigate the effects of Global Climate Change and promote the long-term economic security of its citizens through the implementation of policies that enhance energy efficiency

Resolution 07-18, March 27, 2007

MembershipTwelve energy conservation experts Possess demonstrated expertise and/or advanced training in the areas of energy demand side management, LEED or Green Building Code standards, renewable energy technologies, or a related field. One representative of the University of Florida One former elected Gainesville City Commissioner One former elected Alachua County Commissioner One alternate position

Dwight Adams, Ed Brown, Fred Depenbrock, Christopher Fillie, Ken Fonorow, Levin Gaston, Pattie Glenn, Harry Kegelmann, Tom Lane, Ruth Steiner, Eduardo Vargas, One Vacancy

University of Florida Representative VacancyFormer elected Gainesville City Commissioner Warren NielsenFormer elected Alachua County Commissioner Penny WheatAlternate Member Bill Shepherd

4Energy Conservation Strategies CommissionMISSIONTo draft a comprehensive report on energy use, its relationship to climate change and local socio-economic impacts, including actions that can be implemented by the Board of County Commissioners and the community at large.

ECSC final report due August, 2008. Will include potential local socioeconomic impacts of increased costs of energy for transportation & energy for buildings.

ECSC Subcommittees Land Use & TransportationLocally-applicable Alternative Energy OptionsResidential Buildings (inc. Low-Income Housing & Rental Properties)Waste & Energy Implications

5Community ChallengesEscalating energy costs for transportation & for buildingsClimate change: global and localA geologically abrupt change to long term weather patterns caused by emissions of heat-trapping CO2 through the burning of fossil fuels. Peak Oil production Peak Oil means not 'running out of oil', but 'running out of cheap oil'. For societies leveraged on ever increasing amounts of cheap oil, the consequences may be dire.Energy Bulletin: http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php

Escalating Energy CostsElectricity costs havespiked because of rising fuel costs. Coal has doubled in price just this past year. Since 1999, the cost of natural gas has also skyrocketed, by more than 400 percent. Coal and natural gas make up approximately 60 percent of Florida's electric generation. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission is predicting that summer power prices may increase even further, as high as 50 percent or more.Barry MolineExecutive director, Florida Municipal Electric AssociationJuly 2008

7Ripple effects-escalating energy costs Cost of oil (gasoline)Apr 2001: $22.86/barrel Feb 2001 $1.54/gallon gasApr 2008: $101.22/barrel Feb 2008 $3.08/gallon gasMonthly Cost of Food for a Family of 4Feb 2001: $599Feb 2008: $771Average residential retail price of electricity2001: 8.63 cents/kWh2007: 10.61 cents/kWh100%29%23%Data Available as of 04/22/08 These are national averages!

Cost of Oil: Apr 13, 2001 United States $/barrel of oil http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotusaw.htm Apr 11, 2008 United States $/barrel of oil http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotusaw.htm A barrel of oil has seen a 343% increase in cost since 2001.

Cost of Gasoline: Feb 2001 US City average for retail gasoline all types of gasincludes taxescost per gallon from EAI: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/merquery/mer_data.asp?table=T09.04 Feb 2008 US City average for retail gasoline all types of gasincludes taxescost per gallon from EAI: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/merquery/mer_data.asp?table=T09.04

Monthly Food Cost for a Family of 4: See http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/USDAFoodCost-Home.htm For Feb 2001 http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/FoodPlans/2001/CostofFoodFeb01.pdf Row: Family of 4 Couple 19-50 years and children 2-3 and 4-5 years; Column, Moderate cost plan For Feb 2008 http://www.cnpp.usda.gov/Publications/FoodPlans/2008/CostofFoodFeb08.pdf Row: Family of 4 Couple 19-50 years and children 2-3 and 4-5 years; Column, Moderate cost plan

Average residential retail price of electricity: 2001 from EAI: http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/esr/backissues.html See the excel spreadsheet here http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/FTPROOT/electricity/f8612001.xls and look at tab 4 01 Table 4. Average Retail Price for Bundled and Unbundled Consumers by Sector, Census Division, and State, 2001; Residential Column For 2007 see Current and Historical Monthly Retail Sales, Revenues, and Average Retail Price by State and by Sector (Form EIA-826) http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/page/sales_revenue.xls and look at tab Monthly Totals; Column P Avg Retail Price Residential at the bottom for 2007

8Energy & TransportationUS General Accountability Office Report GAO-07-283: released February, 2007

Crude Oil: Uncertainty about future oil supply makes it important to develop a strategy for addressing a peak and decline in oil production Source: http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

The US GAO Report covered the following:

U.S. economy depends heavily on oil, particularly in the transportation sector. World oil production has been running at near capacity to meet demand, pushing prices upward.

How long can world oil supply expand before reaching a maximum level of production -a peak- from which it can only decline? Study examined when oil production could peak.

Assessed the potential for transportation technologies to mitigate the consequences of a peak in oil production; and

Reviewed studies, convened expert panel, and consulted agency officials. Examined federal agency efforts that could reduce uncertainty about the timing of a peak or mitigate the consequence.

9United States Oil ImportsThis chart depicts the sources of American oil imports. While the United States gets about 45% of its oil from the Middle East and North Africa, these regions hold over two thirds of the oil reserves worldwide.

Driving the Future of Energy Security http://lugar.senate.gov/energy/graphs/oilimport.html

10From Energy Information Administration: How dependent are we on foreign oil?The United States imported about 60% of the oil we consumed during 2006. About half of these imports came from the Western Hemisphere. Our dependence on foreign oil is expected to decline in the next two decades.

The United States consumed 20.7 million barrels per day (MMbd) of petroleum products during 2006 making us the worlds largest oil consumer. The United States was third in crude oil production at 5.1 MMbd. In addition to crude oil, significant contributions to U.S. petroleum supplies came from natural gas plant liquids, refinery gain, and alcohol fuels. However, we still needed 13.7 MMbd of imported crude oil and petroleum products to meet U.S. demand. The United States also exported 1.3 MMbd of crude oil and petroleum products during 2006, so our net imports (imports minus exports) equaled 12.4 MMbd.


US Oil Production and ConsumptionOverview 1949-2006Million Barrels per DayEnergy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Governmenthttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/pdf/pages/sec5_4.pdf

US Consumption 20.59 MB/DayUS ProductionNet ImportsPoints of interest on the chart1970s oil embargo and the subsequent falling demand and the early 80s era of stagflation.11US General Accountability OfficeReport - Key FindingsPeak oil is real.

A decline in oil production, both conventional and unconventional, will occur sometime between now (February 2007) and 2040.

No one is sure of the exact date, because there is a wide variance in the data and methodology used by various research entities.No consistent government policy that acknowledges reality of peak oil & decline. Without a plan, the United States, perhaps more than any other nation, will be the most seriously harmed economically.

This lack of a strategy makes it difficult to gauge the appropriate level of effort or resources to commit to alternatives to oil and puts the nation unnecessarily at risk. (p.39)

Departments of Energy and the Interior generally agreed with the report and recommendations.

12US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsThe consequences would be most dire if a peak occurred soon, without warning, and were followed by a sharp decline in oil production because alternative energy sources, particularly for transportation, are not yet available in large quantities.

Such a peak would require sharp reductions in oil consumption, and the competition for increasingly scarce energy would drive up prices, possibly to unprecedented levels, causing severe economic damage.

The decline (in oil production) would be neither temporary nor reversible: the effects would continue until alternative fuel technologies to displace oil became available in sufficient quantities at comparable costs.

Oil production could decline even more each year following a peak. The amount of alternative fuels to replace oil would have to increase year by year. (p.33-4).

13US General Accountability OfficeSelected FindingsKey alternative [fuels] currently supply the equivalent of only about 1 percent of U.S. consumption of petroleum products.

USDOE projects that even under optimistic scenarios, by 2015 these alternative fuels could displace only the equivalent of 4 percent of projected U.S. annual consumption.

In 2004 the US consumed 140 Billion gallons of gasoline. In that same year we produced only 3.4 billion gallons of ethanol from biofuel crops. That is a drop in the nations gas tank (around 2.4%). But, hold on, ethanol doesn't have the same energy content as gasoline. We only get 70% of the bang for our buck with ethanol so, really we only produced the energy equivalent of 2.4 billion gallons of gasoline. That is a meager 1.7% of the total volume consumed. So, to kick the petroleum habit (just for cars remember) we have to make up 98.3% of the missing total. Let's take one of those future technologies. Here's one for cellulosic ethanol. It supposes that it can create 75 billion gallons (only 53 B gallons equivalent of gas) at some point in the future. IF it works, we still need to make up another 62% of just our 2004 consumption habit. What about current ethanol production technology? Can't we just ramp up what we're doing right now? Ok, one acre of bioenergy crops currently makes around 335 gallons of ethanol (energy equivalent of 234.5 gallons of gas). How many acres of farm land do we need to grow corn, switch grass and or other bioenergy crops to make the equivalent of 140 Billion gallons of gas? We would need 597 Million acres. Unfortunately, we might have annex a wee bit of Mexico and Canada to make the nut as we only have 434 million acres of farms and pastures (as of 2002). With that scenario, for the amount of farm land we have (and shrinking) we're almost there, needing only to find 27% more. So, we'll have a 2/3 full gas tank and an empty belly. Remember ALL pasture and crop land would have to be turned over to making fuel for the car.


Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient community

Invest in weatherization & energy efficiencyCreate employment & new local businessesDevelop sustainable mobility infrastructureMaximize local food productionMaximize renewable energy production

What are the major Community Opportunities? The ECSC recommends creating a resource efficient and resilient community in the following five opportunity areas:

Implement a county-wide weatherization & energy efficiency upgrade program.Create community employment opportunities & grow new local businesses (relocalization). Develop local economy based on low-energy consumption.Develop sustainable mobility infrastructure (focus on public transportation.)Maximize local food production.Maximize local, renewable (non-fossil fuel based) energy production (GO SOLAR).

15Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityGuiding Principles: (1), Practice conservation (reduce consumption); (2), make efficiencies in building envelopes and mechanical equipment; and (3), invest in renewable power generation.

90% of structures in Alachua County built prior to 1999. Minimum energy standards for new construction 1st adopted in 1993. Expect significant efficiencies from upgrades to all building envelopes, mechanical systems and appliances. To weatherize all substandard housing in the county, nearly 1500 houses need to be upgraded each year for the next ten years. Current combined efforts reach approximately 100 houses per year.Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityDr. Wendell Porter, Community Weatherization Coalition estimates that for the Greater-Gainesville area alone there is a need to upgrade 10,000 structures.

It is estimated that these improvements will save 20% in energy costs for the homeowner and ultimately for the city consumption. Average cost of improvements to a home is $750.

17Community weatherization/efficiency upgrade bank: Property owners could access this bank for efficiency upgrades only after meeting specific requirements (like an energy audit) of their building . This would allow a large portion of the community to:

Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityWhat would this weatherization bank cover?

Items could include:Add insulation where needed.Replace single-pane windows with energy-efficient windows.Replace old refrigerators & other appliances with new Energy Star appliances.Replace inefficient water heaters.Upgrade HVAC systems with smaller, more efficient units.Upgrade duct system. Florida Energy Office states that duct leaks in Florida can increase total energy use (cooling and heating) by about 33%.

18Weatherize all County buildings.Ensure optimum energy conservation measures used in construction or renovation where County funds are used.Distribute information about energy conservation and techniques, and related materials listing the advantages of each.Provide Energy efficient rating disclosure (HERS Home Energy Rating System). Optimize Swimming pool pumps.

Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityWeatherize all County buildings to the optimum extent possible. Take advantage of all GRU rebates and programs for commercial buildings.

Optimum energy conservation measures must be used in any new construction, or major renovation of any facility, in which County funds are used. Applications for building permits: Prepare and distribute (with every building permit application) information about energy conservation and techniques, and related materials listing the advantages of each.

Energy efficient rating disclosure (HERS Home Energy Rating System): provide as part of every real estate transaction (sale or rental) to disclose a homes total cost, including energy use.

Swimming pool pumps: set circulation pumps to operate during non-peak hours.

19New Employment and Business CreationTurn discards into raw materials for locally manufactured products.

Economic development of the Alachua County Transfer Station.

Issue a Request for Proposals (RFP) for industries to use discards in manufacturing or related activity. Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityAlachua County residents pay to transport to a landfill tons of discards that could be used to manufacture locally needed products.Economic development project: Further develop the Alachua County Transfer Station for use by waste-based industries. Make useful products from recycled materials.Issue a Request for Proposals (RFP) for industries to use discards in manufacturing or related activity. Match waste/discard to industry in order to locally produce (from otherwise discarded materials) items, produced elsewhere, that now require transportation to Alachua County.

20Carbon markets will soon become a reality.

Reduce Alachua County carbon liability.

Develop County organizational capacity to participate in carbon markets as a source of revenue.Develop Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) professional capacity within Alachua County

Community OpportunitiesCreate a resource efficient and resilient communityCarbon markets will soon become a reality in the US: will create carbon liability & opportunities. Reduce Alachua County carbon liability: maximize carbon sequestration throughout all County operations. Develop County organizational capacity to participate in carbon markets as a source of revenue, while minimizing the carbon credits that must be purchased for County government operations and power production.Develop professional capacity within Alachua County to evaluate Greenhouse Gas emissions (GHG) reductions and scoping of County lands for offset potential. Develop organizational and professional capacity for Alachua County to act as a carbon credit aggregator/broker for local agriculture and forestry operations, and conservation/preservation lands.

Dr. Stephen Mulkey (Formerly of UF) recent work, Opportunities for Greenhouse Gas Reduction Through Forestry and Agriculture in Florida points to the evolving challenges and opportunities of climate change. In Florida alone, managing lands for carbon sequestration could be valued at $340 million per year in a functioning carbon market.

21Contact the ECSCEmail: [email protected] Phone: Sean McLendon, 352-264-6800 Address: ECSC, 201 SE 2nd St., Suite 201, Gainesville, FL 32601ECSC meetings: 1st and 3rd Mondays of the month at 5:30 PM - County Administration Building, Second Floor, Grace Knight Conference Room.ECSC subcommittee meetings: Weekly on Tuesday & Wednesday (call for details.)

Resources Energy Bulletinhttp://www.energybulletin.net

Energy Information Administration; Official Energy Statistics from the US Governmenthttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html

CRUDE OIL: Uncertainty about Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production. United States Government Accountability Office, February 2007http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d07283.pdf

ResourcesThe New York Times Magazine: August 21,2005 The Breaking Point by Peter Maasshttp://www.petermaass.com/core.cfm?p=1&mag=124&magtype=1

National Geographic: The End of Cheap Oil by Tim Appenzeller http://magma.nationalgeographic.com/ngm/0406/feature5/fulltext.html