July 28, 2009 National Public Radio · 7/28/2009 · National Survey Results National Public Radio...

National Survey ResultsNational Public Radio

July 28, 2009

July 22 – 26, 2009

850 Likely voters

National Public Radio, July 2009

This survey was conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio and is the 28th survey in the NPR series.

These findings are based on a national telephone survey of 850 likely voters conducted July 22 – 26, 2009. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.

The survey

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 2 |


Direction of the Country



25 25 23 2316

3138

65 66 68 6863

54

3742

3637

6354

38

49 50

3737

34

424141424037

30

565154

48

25

34

50

39 41

5055

5651 51505054 54

64

80

Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09

Right direction Wrong track

2004 2004 ElectionElection KatrinaKatrina

2006 2006 ElectionElection

Generally speaking, do you think things in the country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?

Net Difference

-13 -22-8-9+10 -18+9-13-10+20+38-12-17 -9-10-11 -19 -18 -34 -40 -45-41 -45 -74

2008 2008 ElectionElection

-32

*Note: Shows nationwide surveys conducted in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio over the past 8 years.

-16

Direction of the country shows improvement since March


3433

Approve Disapprove

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove

Majority approve of job Obama is doing; intensity divided

42

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

53



42

7

Approve Disapprove

Strongly approve Strongly disapprove

61

33


Low approval rating for CongressAnd do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?


25

3336

22

35

28

69

6158

73

5965

Apr-07 Aug-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09

Total approve Total disapprove

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

2008 Election2008 Election

Congressional disapproval high

*Note: Shows nationwide surveys conducted in conjunction with Public Opinion Strategies for National Public Radio over the past 8 years.


3838

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate

Generic congressional vote a statistical tieI know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in the district where you live?

4342


Rep. +1


4

6

12

39

4

3

6

8

2

5

1

3

0 15 30 45 60

First Choice Second Choice

Which one of the following issues do you think the President and Congress should be paying most attention to? And which of the following is next most important to you in deciding how to vote?

Economy tops concerns, health care next

Taxes and spending

The economy and jobs

Energy and gas prices

Moral values

Health care

The war in Iraq

The federal deficit

5928

1814

13

129

5

8

Education

Terrorism and national security

Social Security and Medicare

The war in Afghanistan

11

7

Climate change 3

Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 9 | *Note: Issues ranked by first choice.

National Public Radio, July 2009 Greenberg Quinlan RosnerPage 10 |

8

4

2

2

2

2

2

0 20 40 60 80

Very Good Job (10) Good Job (6-9)

Neither party doing a good job, but Democrats doing betterNow, on a scale of 0 to 10, tell me how good a job you think the Democratic Party/Republican Party is doing addressing the country's priorities so far this year with 10 meaning a very good job and 0 meaning a very bad job. You can choose any number between 0 and 10.

Democrats 70 xx

Independents 28

Republicans 10

All Voters 24

Democrats 13

Independents 18

Republicans 42

All Voters 38 xx

Mean

2.5

4.4

6.6

3.7

5.2

3.9

3.1

3.7

The Democratic Party

The Republican Party


The Economy



49

Excellent/Good Not so Good/Poor

Excellent Poor

State of the economy not good

91

Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

9



24

3736

Starting to improve At bottom, but not gettingbetter

Will still get worse

Starting to improve At bottom, but not getting better Will still get worse

Voters split on if economy is starting to improve or will fall furtherNow, thinking about the nation’s economy, do you believe the economy has already bottomed out and is starting to improve, is at the bottom but is not yet getting any better or has not yet bottomed out and will still get worse?



67

50

10

37

24

4

Looking at the Past Looking to the Future

Better Worse About the same


Two-thirds believe economy will be better a year from nowLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now the economy will be better than it is now or worse than it is now?

Would you say that the economy right now is better than it was six months ago or worse than it was six months ago?


83

2420

39

6467

52

1471

44

Total Democrats Independents Republicans



Across political spectrum, most believe economy will improveLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now the economy will be better than it is now or worse than it is now?


5850

54

72

1014 13

2937

2027

4




Economy worse than it was six months ago to most votersWould you say that the economy right now is better than it was six months ago or worse than it was six months ago?


5053

23

13

2228

Looking at the Past Looking to the Future



Family finances in the recent past and near futureWould you say that right now you and your family are better off financially than you were a year ago or worse off financially than you were a year ago?

Looking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially or worse off financially than you are right now?


65

28 31

41

13 15 12 13

4750

37

14




Most believe their family’s finances will improve in a yearLooking ahead, do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially or worse off financially than you are right now?


26

53 5663

2330

21161922 20

42




Family finances compared to one year agoWould you say that right now you and your family are better off financially than you were a year ago or worse off financially than you were a year ago?


67

50 53

28

10

23

13

22

37

50

24

4

National Economy: Past6 months

National Economy:Year from now

Family Finances: Past 6months

Family Finances: Yearfrom now



Economic outlook: nationally, personally


2412

38

14

37

67

49

29

Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit Avert Crisis Record Deficit

First Statement Strongly Second Statement Strongly


Now I’m going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

Voters split on impact of Obama’s economic policies

First Statement: President Obama's economic policies helped avert an even worse crisis, and are laying the foundation for our eventual economic recovery.

Second Statement: President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.

Democrats Independents RepublicansTotal

21

4845

69

19

76

4941

+3 +48 +8 +57


3338

2934

26 272933

Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary Permanent Temporary




Lifestyle changes forced by recession perceived to be temporary

First Statement: This economic crisis has made me make lifestyle changes that are most likely permanent.

Second Statement: The lifestyle changes I've made due to the economic crisis are most likely temporary.


544942

3845 464742

+7 +16 +5 +1


39

2124 2838

81

49

11Bush

ResponsibleObama

ResponsibleBush

ResponsibleObama

ResponsibleBush

ResponsibleObama

ResponsibleBush

ResponsibleObama

Responsible




Bush continues to hold blame for current state of economy

First Statement: Former President Bush is more responsible for the current state of the economy.

Second Statement: President Obama is more responsible for the current state of the economy.


12

32

56

86

29

54

3346

+24 +74 +13 +25


Health Care and Energy


39

25

Favor Oppose

Strongly Favor Strongly Oppose

Slight plurality oppose Obama’s health care changes without description

As you may have heard, President Obama and the Democrats in Congress are preparing a plan to change the health care system. From what you have heard about this plan, do you favor or oppose Obama and the Democrats' health care proposal?

4742


Oppose +5


But Democrats win health care message debate

Republicans say we need to first control health care costs and require insurance companies to cover everyone so there is no reason to rush through a plan right now that has so many problems. Under this plan, people will have fewer choices. It will not only limit access to quality care and result in rationing, but it will bust the budget by increasing spending when we are already spending too much on unproven programs like the stimulus. We shouldn't have a government-run health care plan where patients can't go to the doctor they want and government bureaucrats decide who gets which treatments.

Republican Statement: Government takeover will bust budget

Democrats say if we don't reform the health insurance system, premiums will keep doubling every five years, more companies will drop coverage, and insurance companies will keep using the fine print to deny care when people need it. This plan shifts the power from the insurance companies to you and your doctor, gives you the peace of mind of knowing that you won't lose your coverage if you get sick or lose your job, and guarantees that if you like your doctor you can keep them. And it cuts costs by encouraging prevention and allowing people and businesses to comparison shop for the best and most affordable plan.

Democratic Statement: Insurance reform, affordability, peace of mind

37

Democraticstatement

Dem. StatementStrongly

36

RepublicanStatement

Rep. StatementStrongly

Now let me read you two statements about Obama and the Democrats' health care plan. After I read these statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.


5142


Democrats also win debate over energy

Republicans say this cap and trade bill is a 2,000 dollar per year hidden tax on average families. It puts a tax on companies that all Americans will end up paying every time they drive, flip on a light switch, or cool their house. Rather than help create new jobs, this hidden tax will make it even more difficult for American manufacturing businesses to compete, and will send jobs to countries like China and India who refuse to play by the same rules. This new tax hits those who can least afford it -- families and small businesses struggling to survive the recession.

Democrats say for too long we've relied on the same old, dirty energy sources. This bill will get America running on clean energy by rewarding companies that produce alternative energy and requiring companies to reduce their pollution. It will require more of our energy to come from alternative sources like wind and solar and it uses America's technological know-how to recharge our economy with new industries, creating 1.7 million new jobs while reducing our dependence on foreign oil and unstable parts of the world. It will cost families less than 15 dollars a month.

Democratic Statement:Recharge our economy

39

DemocraticStatement

Dem. StatementStrongly

32

RepublicanStatement

Rep. StatementStrongly

As you may have heard, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a major energy bill. I am going to read you two statements about that bill. After I read these statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.


Republican Statement: Hidden tax will send jobs overseas

53

40


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