This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions. What you need to know for the week ending June 12, 2020 While fundamentals remained mostly unchanged this week, technical trading took over as managed money traders tried to defend their bearish position against a market trying to churn seasonally higher. Funds are now net short over 300,000 contracts of corn, only the second time they’ve ever went over the 300K mark, last year being the other. The large unsold old crop balance nationwide paired with a small new crop book could allow a chunk of the funds to “get out free” if they so choose, but as I mentioned last week, they need a reason to get out and as of now weather is fine for crop development. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show mostly mild temps and adequate precipitation. All eyes will be on the extended forecasts as we move through next week’s heat and lack of moisture, which is generally fine for now but could be a stressor if it drags on. Thursday’s WASDE report was mostly a non-event as new crop corn ending stocks were raised 5 million bushels while bean stocks were cut by 10 million bushels. A reduction in old crop exports and an increase in old and new crop crush was the main news for soybeans while the corn balance sheet saw a 0.4 bpa reduction in 2019 yield but a nearly identical reduction in corn for ethanol of 50 million bushels. It is notable that USDA left their Brazilian corn and soybean estimates unchanged while the majority of private agencies and experts have lowered theirs over the past month or so due to dry weather across parts of the safrinha corn area. NOPA crush is up late Monday morning, followed by crop conditions in the afternoon. The Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports are 2 ½ weeks away on June 30, which also happens to be July futures First Notice Day. The 100-day moving average proved to be a tough mark for November soybeans every day this week until the contract finally pushed through and barely closed above the resistance point today. July beans touched their 100-day moving average today before immediately retracting and closing about 2 cents below the mark. November soybeans have a gap from $9.00-$9.03 ½, but the stochastics are pointing to overbought conditions on the short-term daily charts. Corn found nice support at the 50-day M.A. this week and tried to push higher into the close but couldn’t generate much steam. $3.34 ¾ July futures sticks out as resistance followed by the 100-day M.A.. The U.S. dollar had two big up days to end the week while the Brazilian Real was starting to move lower before today, breaking the trend we’ve enjoyed the past few weeks. July ‘20 Dec ‘20 $3.30 $3.43 -$0.01 ¼ -$0.02 ¼ July ‘20 Nov ‘20 $8.71 ¼ $8.79 ¾ +$0.03 ½ +$0.00 ¼ July Option Expiration July First Notice Grain Stocks & Acreage SPREADS (From Nov & Dec 2020 Futures) July ’21 SOYBEANS July ‘21 CORN WEEKLY CLOSES & CHANGES AT-THE-MONEY CALL OPTIONS CORN SOYBEANS July $3.30 $0.0500 July $8.70 $0.0925 Aug $3.35 $0.1125 Aug $8.70 $0.1825 Sep $3.35 $0.1500 Sep $8.70 $0.2625 Dec $3.50 $0.1700 Nov $8.80 $0.3500
Transcript
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
What you need to know for the week ending June 12, 2020 While fundamentals remained mostly unchanged this week,
technical trading took over as managed money traders tried to
defend their bearish position against a market trying to churn
seasonally higher. Funds are now net short over 300,000 contracts
of corn, only the second time they’ve ever went over the 300K mark,
last year being the other. The large unsold old crop balance
nationwide paired with a small new crop book could allow a chunk
of the funds to “get out free” if they so choose, but as I mentioned
last week, they need a reason to get out and as of now weather is
fine for crop development. The 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts show
mostly mild temps and adequate precipitation. All eyes will be on
the extended forecasts as we move through next week’s heat and
lack of moisture, which is generally fine for now but could be a
stressor if it drags on.
Thursday’s WASDE report was mostly a non-event as new crop corn
ending stocks were raised 5 million bushels while bean stocks were
cut by 10 million bushels. A reduction in old crop exports and an
increase in old and new crop crush was the main news for soybeans
while the corn balance sheet saw a 0.4 bpa reduction in 2019 yield
but a nearly identical reduction in corn for ethanol of 50 million
bushels. It is notable that USDA left their Brazilian corn and soybean
estimates unchanged while the majority of private agencies and
experts have lowered theirs over the past month or so due to dry
weather across parts of the safrinha corn area. NOPA crush is up
late Monday morning, followed by crop conditions in the afternoon.
The Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports are 2 ½
weeks away on June 30, which also happens to be July futures First
Notice Day.
The 100-day moving average proved to be a tough mark for
November soybeans every day this week until the contract finally
pushed through and barely closed above the resistance point today.
July beans touched their 100-day moving average today before
immediately retracting and closing about 2 cents below the mark.
November soybeans have a gap from $9.00-$9.03 ½, but the
stochastics are pointing to overbought conditions on the short-term
daily charts. Corn found nice support at the 50-day M.A. this week
and tried to push higher into the close but couldn’t generate much
steam. $3.34 ¾ July futures sticks out as resistance followed by the
100-day M.A..
The U.S. dollar had two big up days to end the week while the
Brazilian Real was starting to move lower before today, breaking the
trend we’ve enjoyed the past few weeks.
July ‘20 Dec ‘20
$3.30 $3.43
-$0.01 ¼ -$0.02 ¼
July ‘20 Nov ‘20
$8.71 ¼ $8.79 ¾
+$0.03 ½ +$0.00 ¼
July Option
Expiration
July First Notice Grain Stocks &
Acreage
SPREADS (From Nov & Dec 2020 Futures)
July ’21
SOYBEANS
July ‘21
CORN
WEEKLY CLOSES & CHANGES
AT-THE-MONEY CALL OPTIONS
CORN SOYBEANS July $3.30 $0.0500 July $8.70 $0.0925 Aug $3.35 $0.1125 Aug $8.70 $0.1825 Sep $3.35 $0.1500 Sep $8.70 $0.2625 Dec $3.50 $0.1700 Nov $8.80 $0.3500
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
USELESS FACT OF THE WEEK
Ilha da Queimada Grande, a small island off the coast of
Brazil, is home to 1 snake per square meter.
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
U.S. WEATHER (6-10 & 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS)
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
U.S. WEATHER (DROUGHT MONITOR AND 5-DAY PRECIPIATATION FORECAST)
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
BRAZIL PRECIPITATION (30-DAY PRECIP ANOMALY & 7-DAY FORECAST)
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
JULY 2020 CORN
TECHNICALS
20-Day Moving Average $3.24 ¼ Slow Stochastic Status Neutral
50-Day Moving Average $3.24 ¼ Stochastic %K 67.78%
100-Day Moving Average $3.50 ¼ Stochastic %D 67.04%
Contract High $4.78 Next Gap Higher N/A
Contract Low $3.09 Next Gap Lower N/A
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
JULY 2020 SOYBEANS
TECHNICALS
20-Day Moving Average $8.52 Slow Stochastic Status Overbought
50-Day Moving Average $8.49 ½ Stochastic %K 87.31%
100-Day Moving Average $8.73 Stochastic %D 82.74%
Contract High $10.25 Next Gap Higher N/A
Contract Low $8.18 ½ Next Gap Lower N/A
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
MANAGED MONEY FUND POSITION
CORN
SOYBEANS
Position
-301,873
Change From LW
-15,666
Position
+19,132
Change From LW
+11,998
This communication may contain confidential and/or proprietary information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed. If the reader of this communication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. The information contained herein is accurate to the best of our knowledge and belief. This report and any views expressed herein are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as an inducement to buy or sell. Farmward Cooperative does not accept any liability for any loss or damage howsoever caused to anyone trading in reliance upon such information. Any prices indicated are subject to change with market conditions.
