June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 1.

April 18, 2023 1st UNSTABLE Science Workshop18-19 April 2007

1

UNSTABLEThe UNderstanding Severe Thunderstorms and Alberta

Boundary Layers Experiment

Neil Taylor1, Dave Sills2, John Hanesiak3, Jason Milbrandt4

1 Hydrometeorology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada (EC)2 Cloud Physics and Severe Weather Research Section, EC

3 Centre for Earth Observation Science, University of Manitoba4 NWP Research Section, EC

Project OverviewFirst UNSTABLE Science Workshop

18-19 April, 2007


3

Outline

• Overview of UNSTABLE based on draft Science Plan

• Rationale• Goals and Deliverables• Introduce Science Questions• Experimental Design• Budget Requirements• Timeline / Milestones


4

Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts

Alberta Foothills experience more lightning days than anywhere else on the Canadian Prairies


5

Rationale: Socio-economic Impacts

Edmonton – Calgary corridor one of most densely populated regions in Canada and contains Canada’s 3rd (YYC) and 7th (YEG) busiest airports


6

Rationale:Socio-economic Impacts

Edmonton – Calgary corridor among fastest growing regions in Canada


7

Rationale:Socio-economic Impacts

• Frequent and Severe Thunderstorms + People + More People + Busy Airports = Potential Human and Economic Loss

• Since 1980 > $2B and > 40 lives lost in AB due to severe thunderstorms

• Improved understanding of processes leading to severe storms better warnings mitigate impacts of severe weather on Canadians


8

Rationale: Severe Wx Challenges

Forecasters face uncertainty with respect to:• ABL structure and evolution (especially vertical

water vapour profiles in ABL)• Role and importance of mesoscale boundaries /

circulations in foothills• Conceptual models for CI• Land surface – ABL interactions (sensible / latent

heat fluxes) in foothills and upstreamCompounded by:• Inadequate observation network to resolve the

above• NWP performance with respect to above


9

Rationale: EC Results Management Framework

• All of EC structured according to Outcome Project Plans (OPPs) – everything we do has an associated OPP

• UNSTABLE addresses 10 OPPs related to:– Monitoring atmospheric conditions– Weather prediction– Understanding, detection, and prediction of severe

and high-impact weather– Understanding the water cycle– Improved weather warnings, forecasts, and warning

preparedness– Aviation weather services


10

UNSTABLE Goals

• To improve understanding of atmospheric processes (especially in ABL) prior to and during CI and severe thunderstorm development

• To improve accuracy and lead time for severe thunderstorm watches and warnings

• To assess utility of GEM-LAM-2.5 to resolve physical processes over AB Foothills and ability to provide useful guidance for CI and severe thunderstorm forecasts

• To refine existing conceptual models describing CI and severe thunderstorm development over AB and the Western Prairies


11

UNSTABLE Deliverables

• Unique and high-resolution dataset of measurements from various platforms including surface, upper-air, and vertical profiles of atmospheric characteristics

• Peer-reviewed articles, presentations / posters at conferences and workshops

• Presentations / reference material targeting forecasters at SPCs with operational application

• Through RSD direct knowledge transfer to operational meteorologists in real time prior to and during high-impact weather events


12

UNSTABLE Science Questions

ABL Processes (Taylor/Sills)1. What are the contributions of ABL processes to the initiation of

deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills?

Land Surface – ABL Interactions (Hanesiak)2. What are the contributions of surface processes to the initiation of

deep moist convection and the development of severe thunderstorms in the Alberta Foothills?

Numerical Weather Prediction (Milbrandt)3. To what extent can high-resolution NWP models contribute to

forecasting the initiation and development of severe thunderstorms originating in the Alberta Foothills?


16

Experimental Design: Domain

• Study area designed to include existing SFC and radar stations given climatological CI and thunderstorm activity

• Primary domain defined by supplementary mesonet and FCA stations – main focus for mobile measurements

• Secondary domain to include FCA and other stations – still deploy mobile measurements for interesting cases


17

Supplemental Instrumentation

Fixed• Mesonet stations (10-20)• 2 radiosonde• Tethersonde• 2 WV radiometers• Profiling radiometer (H2O profile)• GPS PW sensors• Eddy Correlation Flux Tower(s)?• Additional Profiling Radiometer (T, RH)?

Mobile• AMMOS / Strong Mobile (T, P, RH)• MARS (PW, SFC wx, profile – wind, T,

RH) • 3 radiosondes• Aircraft• Photography

Locations of fixed radiometers, GPS sensors, tethersonde to be determined

19 Station Configuration


18

Experimental Design: Duration and IOP

UNSTABLE Study Period

• 1 June to 31 August

• Fixed mesonet stations to be deployed prior to June 1st 2008

• Mobile instrumentation / communications tests in 15 June to 31 June window

Intensive Observation Period

• Tentatively 9 July to 31 July (23 days) contingent on field participation, expendables,…

• UNSTABLE Field Plan to be developed this fall / winter


19

Budgeting Requirements

• EC UNSTABLE contributions thus far exceed $50K (not including ATMOS, AMMOS, tethersonde,…)

Item Cost ($)

Radiosondes / Expendables (350 sondes – 223 stockpiled)

25K / 20K

Research Aircraft 250K

ATMOS Station Communications 6K

Travel 2007 (conferences / meetings) 7K

Travel 2008 (meetings, field campaign) 20K+ (depends on number of field participants and duration of IOP)

Students 40K (EC) + Other

Shipping Equipment (ATMOS , AMMOS, Tethersonde, other)

15K

Training (OHS, Tethersonde, First Aid) 5K

Fencing Hardware for mesonet stations 7K

Radiometrics coefficients if necessary 4K

Vehicle rentals / fuel 5K

Total 400K +


20

Timeline and MilestonesDate Event

Summer 2006 Test of ATMOS and AMMOS

27-29 September 2006 Preliminary Mesonet Site Selection

March 2007 UNSTABLE website and leads for science questions 2 and 3

6 April 2007 Draft Science Plan distributed and posted

18-19 April 2007 First UNSTABLE Science Workshop

Spring / Summer 2007 Finalize Science Plan

2-4 May 2007 Mesonet Site Selection

31 May 2007 Presentations at 41st CMOS Congress

18 June – 13 July 2007 BAQS-Met: field use of ATMOS, AMMOS, tethersonde

1 Sept – 13 Nov 2007 Develop UNSTABLE Field Plan

27 Nov 2007 UNSTABLE Field Plan workshop

29 Feb 2008 UNSTABLE Field Plan finalized

31 Mar 2008 Finalize all land-use agreements

12-31 May 2008 Deploy fixed mesonet stations

1 June – 31 Aug 2008 UNSTABLE Study Period

9-31 July 2008 UNSTABLE IOP

1-19 Sept 2008 Remove mesonet stations, etc.

22 Sept 2008 Begin data QC

Fall 2008 UNSTABLE article for CMOS / BAMS

Funding Requests


21

Principal Investigators

Neil Taylor, HAL, ECScience Question 1 Co-Lead, Project Manager

Dave Sills, CPSWRS, ECScience Question 1 Co-Lead

John Hanesiak, CEOS, U of ManitobaScience Question 2 Lead

Jason Milbrandt, RPN, ECScience Question 3 Lead

Pat McCarthy, PASPC, ECPASPC Severe Weather Program Supervisor

Geoff Strong, Adjunct Professor, U of Alberta


22

Summary

• Planning continues for the UNSTABLE field campaign in 2008– science questions and planning document have been drafted

• This workshop an opportunity to refine the science plan (science questions, instrumentation and deployment strategies, etc.) – soliciting input from this group to make it better

• Final version to be submitted for funding within EC and externally for NSERC, other sources

• Still need to confirm some participation / collaboration – Instrumentation– Field participants– Funding– Data analysis / QC champions

• Research aircraft requires significant funding• Logistics for IOP to be developed in field plan this fall / winter


23

Date post:	19-Dec-2015
Category:	Documents
View:	215 times
Download:	0 times

June 2, 20151 st UNSTABLE Science Workshop 18-19 April 2007 1.

Documents