Custom-Built Cedar Log Home on 2.81 Acres One Mile from Sentara RMH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3193TaylorSpringLane.com
An analysis of real estate activity through May 31, 2020provided courtesy of Scott P. Rogers, Funkhouser Real Estate Group
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Real Estate Market Report
JUNE 2020
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Home sales declined significantly (-31%) in May compared to last May, largely due to fewer contracts being signed in March and April. Despite this significant decline in home sales in May, the year-to-date pace of home sales has only declined slightly (-2.84%) when viewing January through May sales this year as compared to last year.
The median sales price is also still rising, and more quickly than it was a year ago. The median sales price of $234,900 thus far in 2020 is 9.26% higher than the median sales price of $215,000 last year during the same timeframe. Finally, homes are selling 39% faster this year than last year in the first five months of the year.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County June 2020
All Residential Sales 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May 149 130 158 109 -31.01%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 481 480 493 479 -2.84%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 1,340 1,261 1,319 1,310 -0.68%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May $200,000 $221,500 $228,750 $249,900 9.25%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $189,000 $207,650 $215,000 $234,900 9.26%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $192,700 $205,300 $214,900 $230,000 7.03%
Median Days on Market 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 49 29 28 17 -39.29%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 47 30 24 15 -37.50%
Detached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 326 338 346 351 1.45%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 965 903 952 959 0.74%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $216,500 $224,108 $225,000 $250,000 11.11%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $219,000 $225,000 $229,000 $249,000 8.73%
Attached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 155 142 147 128 -12.93%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 375 358 367 351 -4.36%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $155,000 $164,950 $174,900 $192,000 9.78%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $150,000 $163,000 $171,500 $180,000 4.96%
HOME SALES REPORT
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The green charts above shows trends in detached home sales -- as compared to the orange charts which show attached home sales, comprised of duplexes, townhouses and condominiums. Over the past year the pace of detached home sales has risen only slightly (0.74%) to 959 sales per year while the pace of attached home sales has
fallen 4.36% to 351 sales per year. The median sales price of detached homes has risen 8.73% over the past year to $249,000 while the median sales price of attached homes has only risen 4.96% -- to $180,000 in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County June 2020
All Residential Sales 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May 149 130 158 109 -31.01%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 481 480 493 479 -2.84%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 1,340 1,261 1,319 1,310 -0.68%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May $200,000 $221,500 $228,750 $249,900 9.25%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $189,000 $207,650 $215,000 $234,900 9.26%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $192,700 $205,300 $214,900 $230,000 7.03%
Median Days on Market 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 49 29 28 17 -39.29%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 47 30 24 15 -37.50%
Detached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 326 338 346 351 1.45%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 965 903 952 959 0.74%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $216,500 $224,108 $225,000 $250,000 11.11%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $219,000 $225,000 $229,000 $249,000 8.73%
Attached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 155 142 147 128 -12.93%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 375 358 367 351 -4.36%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $155,000 $164,950 $174,900 $192,000 9.78%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $150,000 $163,000 $171,500 $180,000 4.96%
HOME SALES REPORT
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County June 2020
All Residential Sales 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May 149 130 158 109 -31.01%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 481 480 493 479 -2.84%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 1,340 1,261 1,319 1,310 -0.68%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
May $200,000 $221,500 $228,750 $249,900 9.25%
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $189,000 $207,650 $215,000 $234,900 9.26%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $192,700 $205,300 $214,900 $230,000 7.03%
Median Days on Market 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 49 29 28 17 -39.29%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 47 30 24 15 -37.50%
Detached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 326 338 346 351 1.45%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 965 903 952 959 0.74%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $216,500 $224,108 $225,000 $250,000 11.11%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $219,000 $225,000 $229,000 $249,000 8.73%
Attached Homes 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) 155 142 147 128 -12.93%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 375 358 367 351 -4.36%
Median Sales Price 2017 2018 2019 2020 % Change ('19 - '20)
Year-To-Date (Jan - May) $155,000 $164,950 $174,900 $192,000 9.78%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $150,000 $163,000 $171,500 $180,000 4.96%
HOME SALES REPORT
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Generally, each year, more than twice as many homes sell in Rockingham County as compared to the City of Harrisonburg. Over the past 12 months, that trend continued - and we have actually seen somewhat of a decline (-11.6%) in City home sales while we have seen an increase (+4.62%) in the pace of County home sales. The median
sales price of homes in the City and County have both increased - with a 9.87% increase in price in the City and a 7.33% price in the County. The median sales price is a good bit higher in the County ($241,500) than in the City ($206,000).
# Home Sales 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change
May 45 27 -40.00% 113 82 -27.43%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 431 381 -11.60% 888 929 4.62%
Median Sales Price 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change
May $184,900 $223,000 20.61% $235,900 $262,450 11.25%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) $187,500 $206,000 9.87% $225,000 $241,500 7.33%
Median Days on Market 2019 2020 % Change 2019 2020 % Change
May 14 15 7.14% 18 11 -38.89%
Last 12 Months (Jun - May) 16 9 -43.75% 29 18 -37.93%
HOME SALES REPORT :: BY AREACity of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
City of Harrisonburg
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Rockingham County
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[1] MARKET SUMMARY
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Monthly home sales this year (shown as a red line above) have been all over the place as compared to last year. We saw record breaking months of home sales in January as well as March - but home sales in February, Apri land May were all the lowest seen in the past several years. Home sales in the most recently concluded
month (May 2020) were significantly lower than last May - likely due to fewer contracts being signed in March and April. We are likely to see slower months of June and July as well this year because we have not seen a full resurgence of buyer and seller activity yet to bring us back up to 2019 (etc.) levels.
69 69
94100
149
138
117 119
10598 100
103
63
81
100106
130
174
131
116
100
120
83
102
65 67
91
112
158
145149
120
113 111
93 100100
63
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109
0
25
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
All R
esid
entia
l Sal
es (D
etac
hed
& A
ttach
ed)
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Month-By-Month Home Sales History
2017
2018
2019
2020
May 2020109 Home Sales
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[2] RECENT TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
This colorful graph offers another way to look at the overall sales trends for the past few years in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County housing market. As shown above, our local housing market experienced has seen steady growth over the past three years to a total of 1,324 home sales during 2019. This was the highest total
number of home sales seen in a single year for more than a decade. The pace of home sales in 2020 was the strongest ever -- through April -- but we have now fallen slightly behind at the close of May due to slower months of home sales in both April and May as compared to the same months last year.
56 49 67 69 63 65 100109 117 135 138 144 132
163167 189 220 232 244 223273248 282
321 332 350 335370355
392454 481 480 493 479466
526606 619 654 638
591634
721 736785 787
697760
879 855901 907
808857
1,008960
1,001 1,020
920962
1,1051,058
1,121 1,131
9881,041
1,2181,158
1,204 1,224
1,0851,125
1,3131,261
1,306 1,324
0
100
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400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
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1300
1400
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Monthly Cumulative Residential Sales
DEC
NOV
OCT
SEP
AUG
JUL
JUN
MAY
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[2] RECENT TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
This graph shows a rolling 12 month trend line of the number of homes sold in the Harrisonburg and Rockingham County area, as well as the median price of the homes that sold during these time frames. Each data point shows one year’s worth of home sales, which eliminates the volatility of evaluating sales figures on a monthly
basis. The annual pace of home sales had been rising steadily for about two and a half years but has started to decline over the past two months. Meanwhile, the median sales price keeps on climbing up to a median of $230,000 at this point for all home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County.
1,34
01,
326
1,32
81,
289
1,26
51,
266
1,25
31,
261
1,25
5 1,26
71,
273
1,27
91,
260
1,29
6 1,31
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1,30
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307
1,30
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1,29
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1,29
0 1,30
81,
312 1,32
51,
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1,32
61,
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91,
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374
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91,
310
$192
,700
$193
,000
$194
,500
$196
,500
$195
,000
$196
,125
$198
,250
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,500
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,882
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,000
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,000
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,000
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,000
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,600
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,000
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,000
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$214
,900
$214
,900
$214
,000
$213
,500
$214
,900
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,250
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,000
$219
,950
$223
,000
$223
,500
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,150
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,000
$229
,250
$230
,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Time-Adjusted Home Sales Trends :: All Residential Properties# Home Sales, Median Sales Price in each 12 Month Period
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[2] RECENT TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
This graph provides an overall indicator of the state of our housing market, showing both the number of homes being sold each year since 2005 (yellow bars) as well as changes in the median sales price during the same time period (blue line). Over the past nine years we have seen rather steady increases in the number of homes
sold each year in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County - up to 1,324 last year. The median sales price has also been consistently increasing for eight years now, up to an all time high last year of $223,000. Thus far in 2020, the median sales price seems to be ready to rise a good bit again!
1,669
1,438
1,248
967
870799
832900
1,067 1,0851,122
1,3091,260
1,306 1,324
479
$169
,900
$192
,983
$195
,100
$195
,000
$185
,000
$179
,900
$169
,900
$172
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,000
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,000
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,000
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,500
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,250
$211
,750
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,000
$234
,900
$0
$50,000
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0
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1,200
1,400
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2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsAll Residential Sales (Attached & Detached)
‐14%
‐13%
‐23%
+14%
+1%
‐10%
‐5%
‐8%
‐3%
+4%
‐6%+1%
+8%
+19%
+2%
+2%
+2%
+3%
+4%
+17%
+4%
‐4%
+3%
+3%
+7%
+5%
+1%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The single family home market in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County has improved rather steadily over the past nine years with increases almost every year in the number of homes sold. Technically, we saw a peak in 2016 that we have not yet matched, though there were slight increases between 2017 and 2018 as well
as between 2018 and 2019. The median sales price of these single family homes has also steadily increased over the past five years -- from $190,000 to last year’s median sales price of $240,000. The median sales price is showing signs of heading even higher this year, though we’re only working with four months of data thus far.
1,025
909
798
678
602 595653 672
813 819 818
978
890941 951
351
$210
,000 $226
,800
$223
,575
$215
,000
$203
,000
$195
,000
$184
,000
$195
,000
$192
,000
$190
,000
$200
,000
$214
,000
$224
,600
$228
,000
$240
,000
$250
,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsDetached Homes
‐11%
‐12%
‐15%
+8%‐1%
‐4%
‐11%
‐6%
‐1%
‐4%
+10%
‐6%
+3%
+6%
+21%
‐2%
+1%
‐1%+5%
+20%
+7%
‐9%
+5%
+6%
+2%
+5%
+1%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The pace of sales of attached homes (duplexes, townhouses and condos) rose steadily between 2011 and 2017 before declining slightly (-2%) in 2018 -- but then increasing slightly (+2%) in 2019. These recent years of declining numbers of sales is likely correlated to fewer new townhouses being constructed in this area. Over
the past three years, the median sales price of attached homes has steadily risen to the high of $175,200 that we saw in 2019 -- the highest median sales price on record for attached homes in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Thus far in 2020, the median sales price seems to be headed even higher!
644
529
450
289268
204179
228254
266
304331
370 361 370
128
$134
,950
$160
,850
$163
,800
$166
,635
$159
,545
$154
,250
$140
,500
$132
,750
$137
,250 $1
51,750
$151
,750
$149
,500
$159
,800
$167
,800
$175
,200 $1
92,000
$0
$20,000
$40,000
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$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales & Price TrendsAttached Homes (Duplexes, Townhomes & Condos)
‐18%
‐15%
‐36%
+19%
+2% +2%
‐7%
‐4%
‐24%
‐3%
‐12%
‐9%
+27%
‐6%
+11%
+3%
+5%
+11%
+14%
+9%
‐1%
+12%
+7%
‐2%
+5%
+4%
+2%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Most housing market analysts consider six months of inventory (active listings) to be an indicator of a balanced market (between buyers and sellers). The “BUYERS” trend line above is illustrating how many buyers are buying in a six month period. The “SELLERS” trend line above is illustrating how many sellers are in the market
(active listings) at any given time. Over the past several years we have seen a steady increase in buyers and a declining number of sellers. In June 2016, these two trajectories crossed, and there are now many more buyers buying in a six month period than there are homes for sale -- though the buying pace has leveled off.
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
484 491
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379
372
363
356
349
345
341
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298
292
285
279
275
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266
260
254
249
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243
239
100
200
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500
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800May‐14
Jul‐1
4
Sep‐14
Nov
‐14
Jan‐15
Mar‐15
May‐15
Jul‐1
5
Sep‐15
Nov
‐15
Jan‐16
Mar‐16
May‐16
Jul‐1
6
Sep‐16
Nov
‐16
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7
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Nov
‐17
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8
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Nov
‐18
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9
Sep‐19
Nov
‐ 19
Jan‐20
Mar‐20
May‐20
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Market Balance between Buyers and SellersAssuming Six Months of Housing Supply is a Balanced Market
Balance
SELLERS
BUYERS
SELLERS
BUYERS
Seller's Market
<‐ Buyer's Market
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
In addition to monitoring home values by overall median sales prices in our market, it can be insightful to examine the median price per square foot of homes that are selling. The graph above shows the median price per square foot of all single family homes sold over the past 15 years. The value trend captured by this graph is quite
similar to the trend shown in the single family home median sales price during the same time, which validates that assumed set of changes in home values. Over the past several years (2015 through 2019) we have seen increases in the median sales price as well as the median price per square foot of single family homes.
$210K
$227K $224K$215K
$203K$195K
$184K
$195K $192K $190K$200K
$214K
$225K $228K
$240K$250K
$116
$129 $127 $127
$117$113
$101 $103 $105 $106 $108$113
$118
$125$129
$138
$0
$20
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price vs. Price Per SF of Detached HomesMedian Price Price/SF
Median Price Per SF
Median Sales Price
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Price per square foot of single family homes certainly varies for many reasons, including the age, location, lot size and structural characteristics of each home sold. However, there are some similarities in homes of similar sizes. Looking at 2019 figures, this graph illustrates that the median price per square foot of larger homes
(2500+ SF) was a good bit lower ($116/SF) than that of homes with less than 1500 SF ($147/SF) during 2019. These values cannot be used as an absolute standard against which the value of any home can be measured, but they can provide some helpful guidance when trying to determine the value of a home.
$108$111
$115 $114
$121
$126
$132
$145$147
$154
$101$104 $105
$103
$106
$115
$119
$123
$128
$137
$96 $97 $98
$104
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$105$107
$109
$116
$112
80
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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median Price Per Square Foot by Home SizeSingle Family Homes
0 ‐ 1,499 SF 1,500 ‐ 2,500 SF 2,500+ SF
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
This graph shows the average list price to sales price ratio (red line) over the past 15 years as compared to the overall pace of home sales. At the peak of the housing boom (2004-2006) sellers were able to obtain a median of 99% of their asking price. Then, when the pace of home sales slowed (through 2010) this metric dropped
to 96%, where it stayed for three years. Sellers started selling for slightly more in 2013-2015 when they could obtain 97% of their list price. This increased to 98% in 2016 (remained there in 2017), and has been holding at 99% since 2018. So long as we continue to see low inventory levels, this will likely stay at or around 99%.
1,669
1,438
1,248
967
870799 832
900
1,067 1,0851,122
1,3091,260
1,306 1,324
363
99% 99%98% 98%
97%96% 96% 96%
97% 97% 97%98% 98%
99% 99% 99%
70.0%
75.0%
80.0%
85.0%
90.0%
95.0%
100.0%
0
250
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750
1,000
1,250
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2,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Median List Price to Sales Price Ratiowithin the context of Home Sales Pace
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
New home builders have been building more homes over the past four years (70 - 82 per year) than seen during the preceding six years. These figures, of course, only represent new homes being marketed through the MLS. Plenty of additional new homes are built by local home builders on lots already owned by the person who
will live in the home - and thus they do not show up in the new home sales metrics above. When looking just at these new home sales, we see a steady increase in the price per square foot of homes being built and sold over the past ten years.
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
4145
5147
38
54
8277
82
70
30
$130
$129
$128
$129 $1
36 $140
$141 $1
49 $151 $1
58 $165
0
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
New Construction Detached Home Sales TrendsNumber of Sales, Median Price Per Square Foot
[3] LONG TERM TRENDS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Contract activity was quite strong in January and February of 2020 with January marking the highest month of January contracts in the past three years, and the same in February. These strong early months of 2020 contract activity helped to offset what were then slower months of contract activity in March and April. In
fact, we usually see quite a significant jump in contract activity in March, but that didn’t happen this year. In May, however, we did see a reasonable uptick in contract activity, which helped to minimize the year-over-year decline in contract activity such that it has only declined 1% over the past year.
133132
97
111
87
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79
69
8590
128 128
171
124119
109102
111
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122126
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100 10196
58
95
109116
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139
0
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May‐17
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7
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9
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Buyers Per Month Commiting to Buy Properties
Annual Pace: 1,289 contracts
Annual Pace: 1,311 contractsAnnual Pace: 1,303 contracts
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[4] BUYER ACTIVITY
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Over the past several years, inventory levels have dipped lower and lower and lower. This has not, though, been accompanied by a decline in the pace of home sales. So -- if just as many (or more) buyers are buying, how are they doing it if inventory levels are so low? They’re doing it with speed. The pace of home sales
can increase, with inventory levels declining if the median “days on market” is also declining, which is definitely the case in our local market. So, plenty (maybe, maybe not) homes are being listed for sale, but they are then going under contract quickly, which keeps inventory levels low but the pace of home sales high.
394
393 41
840
939
635
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027
9 295 32
032
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6 236
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels(end of month)
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
This graph examines the differences in inventory levels over time when examining only single family homes as compared to attached dwellings (townhouses, duplexes, condos). The number of detached homes for sale has decreased by 25% over the past year, while the number of attached homes (townhouses, duplexes and condos)
for sale has actually risen by 14% over the past year. I was hopeful that we would start to see inventory levels rise as we get progressed through Spring this year -- but COVID-19 seems to be causing some sellers to wait to list their homes for sale.
327
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9 184
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98
69 72 66
56
46 49
5676
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90 88 86 83 87
75 70 72
64 60
48 49 48 45 43 49 43 40
31
39 37
47 52 56
0
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property TypeDetached Homes Attached Homes
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Inventory levels have fallen 24% in Rockingham County over the past year though City inventory levels rose 9% during the same timeframe. Of note -- there are more than twice as many home sales and homes for sale in the County as compared to the City. Low inventory levels are much more of an issue in the City right now if we
look at both sellers (supply) and buyers (demand). This is likely leading to the faster increases in median sales price in the City, and the lower median days on market in the City as compared to the same metrics in the County.
89
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88 85 79 76
64 58
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60 60 57 55 55 55 61 60
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45
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51
61 60
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163 17
5
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0
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Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Property LocationCity of Harrisonburg Rockingham County
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[5] INVENTORY LEVELS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Declining inventory levels are contributing to an overall decline in the time it takes to sell a home in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. The current median “Days on Market” is 15 days for homes that have sold in the past year. Remarkably, 62% of homes that have sold in the past year have gone under contract within 30 days
of having hit the market. Combine that with those that went under contract during the second month on the market, and you’ll find that 75% of homes that sell go under contract within 60 days. The graph to the right, above, shows the length of time that each active listing has been on the market for sale.
< 30 days81362%
30 ‐ 59 days16713%
60 ‐ 89 days816%
3 ‐ 6 months15012%
6 ‐ 12 months806%
> 1 year191%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Sold PropertiesResidential Listings Sold in the Past 12 Months
Median Days On Market: 15
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
< 30 days7031%
30 ‐ 59 days3515%
60 ‐ 89 days3917%
3 ‐ 6 months5223%
6 ‐ 12 months198%
> 1 year, 13, 6%
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Days on Market Analysis of Active ListingsActive Residential Listings
Median Days On Market: 67
[6] DAYS ON MARKET
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The pace of home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County varies significantly based on price range. The graph above shows the average number of home sales per month (given a 12-month average) as we have passed through the past two years. Home sales have been declining over the past several years in the “under
$200K” category -- though likely because of limited inventory, and fewer properties existing in this range based on increasing home values. We have seen year-over-year increases in all three of the other price ranges ($200K-$300K, $300K-$400K, $400K+) over the past year.
5049 49 49 48 48 48 48 49
47 47 4647 47 47 47 47 47 46
4445 46 45
44
40
34
37 37 38 38 39 38 38 38 39 39 40 4038 39 38 38 39 39
40 41 4041 42
41
13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18
8.0 8.4 9.0 8.7 8.9 9.3 9.4 8.8 8.8 8.3 7.7 8.0 7.8 8.0 7.9 8.3 8.5 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.9 10.0 10.5 10.3 10.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales by Price Range (Average of Past 12 Months)
$0 ‐ $200k $200k ‐ $300k $300k ‐ $400k $400k +
+20%
+35%
+2%
‐15%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Inventory levels shift up and down seasonally, so this graph (now) looks at changes in average inventory over a 12 month period. We are seeing different trends in inventory levels by price range with the most notable change being the 47% decline in inventory levels under $200K. The only price range where we are seeing increases
in average inventory levels is the over $400K price range where there are 13% more homes for sale now as compared to a year ago. Some of these changes are due to changes in market value (increases) over the past few years, but that cannot account for all of the changes in inventory levels.
107
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49
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75
5653
47
71
60 67
0
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120
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Inventory Levels by Price Range(trailing 12 months)
$0 ‐ $200k $200k ‐ $300k $300k ‐ $400k $400k +
‐47%
‐18%
+13%
‐12%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
With so many home sales (lots of buyers) and so few homes on the market (not so many sellers), there are low levels of supply in some price ranges in our local real estate market. The graph above illustrates that while it would take approximately seven months to sell all of the homes currently for sale over $400K if the same
number of buyers bought each month as have been buying (on average) over the past 12 months and if no new listings came on the market -- but it would only take one month (!!) to burn through the under $200K inventory. Many consider a six month supply to be a balance between buyers and sellers.
2.0 1.9
1.1
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4.5
3.8
2.9
10.3
7.07.4
0
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4
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8
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12
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Months of Housing Supply by Price Range(trailing 12 months)
$0 ‐ $200k $200k ‐ $300k $300k ‐ $400k $400k +
Entire Market: 2.2 Months of Housing Supply12‐Month Average of 239 Active Listings12‐Month Average of 109 Sales/Month
+6%
‐25%
‐21%
‐45%
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[7] MARKET SEGMENTS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
With the exception of 2016, we have seen between 78 and 90 lot sales of less than an acre for each of the past seven years. This is a sharp decline from the 260 - 400 lot sales seen in 2002-2005, but it is an improvement over where things were (58-64 sales) between 2009 and 2012. From a value perspective, the sales prices
of these “less than an acre” lots have also been rather stable between 2008 and 2018 -- fluctuating no further than between $53K and $60K -- but then increased to $73K in 2019. This rise to $73K seems dramatic until you look further back to the meteoric rise and then fall to/from $100K back in 2006.
64 62 63
83 8478
64
83 8287
34
$55,00
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Lot Sales & Median Pricesless than 1 acre
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[8] LOTS AND LAND
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The pace of sales of parcels of land larger than one acre in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County increased over the past nine years to 98 land sales -- marking the highest year of sales since 2005. The median price per acre declined in 2018 to $14,818 and again (slightly) in 2019 to $14,459. Of note -- some aspects of this
“median price per acre” calculation are affected by which parcels actually sell in a given year. The increase in buyer demand over the past nine years has not seemed to have created any upward lifting pressure on values to date.
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70
5866
73
88
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98
36
$13,95
7 $15,00
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0
$9,932
$15,17
1
$10,00
0
$15,82
7
$14,81
8
$14,45
9
$14,51
6
$0
$2,000
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$6,000
$8,000
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$16,000
$18,000
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Land Sales & Median Price Per Acre1 acre or more
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[8] LOTS AND LAND
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
The graph above is a comparison of two imprecise measures -- but the comparison can still be helpful. The blue bars show the number of home sales recorded in the HRAR MLS -- this does not include private sales that did not involve a Realtor, nor new home sales directly from a builder. The red bars show the number of recorded
Trustee Deeds. Some foreclosed properties then show up again as REO properties. The foreclosure rate in our local market area has been trending downward over the past nine years and is now at the lowest level seen anytime in the past 15 years!
1,669
1,438
1,248
936
816758
794864
1,0131,085
1,122
1,3091,260
1,306 1,324
479
86 93 97 118177
270223 252
222163 139 136 134
8556
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County
Home Sales vs. Trustee SalesHome Sales per HRAR MLS Recorded Trustee Deeds
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
As shown in the top graph above, for most of the past three years, home buyers have seen tremendously low interest rates -- almost always under 4.5%. Over the past 18 months those interest rates have then dipped even lower to the current historically low rate of 3.15%. Never have we seen rates this low. The second
graph above illustrates trends in the local unemployment rate -- which has shown a general downward trend over the past several years but which has skyrocked to 10.8% over the past month due to COVID-19. A (usually) low local unemployment rate and low mortgage interest rates help our local housing market remain stable.
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%
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%
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%
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%
3.83
%
3.94
%
3.90
%
3.99
%
4.15
% 4.40
%
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%
4.61
%
4.56
%
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%
4.54
%
4.52
% 4.72
%
4.86
%
4.81
%
4.55
%
4.46
%
4.35
%
4.06
%
4.20
%
3.99
%
3.73
%
3.75
%
3.58
%
3.64
%
3.78
%
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%
3.74
%
3.51
%
3.45
%
3.50
%
3.23
%
3.15
%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
5.50%
May‐17 May‐18 May‐19 May‐20
Average 30‐Year Fixed Mortgage Interest RateSource: Freddie Mac
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
3.3% 3.9% 4.2%
4.0%
3.9%
3.5%
3.3% 3.5%
3.0% 3.5%
3.2%
3.3%
2.7% 2.9% 3.5%
3.0%
3.1%
2.7%
2.7%
2.7%
2.4% 3.0%
3.1%
3.0%
2.4% 3.0%
3.1%
2.9%
2.7%
2.3%
2.2%
2.2%
2.1% 2.8%
2.4% 3.
3%10
.8%
1.50%2.50%3.50%4.50%5.50%6.50%7.50%8.50%9.50%
10.50%11.50%
Apr‐17 Apr‐18 Apr‐19 Apr‐20
Harrisonburg‐Rockingham MSA
Unemployment RateNot Seasonally Adjusted
[9] ECONOMIC INDICATORS
logo.indd 1 7/28/2008 3:10:30 PM
Published on June 15, 2020 by Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker, Funkhouser Real Estate Group, based on data from the Harrisonburg-Rockingham Association of REALTORS (R) MLS for the period of 01/01/2000 - 05/31/2020.
Scott P. Rogers, a professional, responsive, knowledgeable, friendly Associate Broker with Funkhouser Real Estate Group, began his real estate career in 2003 and has been working hard ever since to provide exceptional service to his buyer and seller clients in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County. Since 2010, Scott has been recognized each year by the Harrisonburg/Rockingham Association of Realtors as being in the top 1% of all area Realtors. A native of Montgomery County, Maryland, Scott earned a B.A. (2000) and M.Ed. (2002) from James Madison University, providing him formal education in graphic design, management and counseling -- all of
which he leverages on a daily basis to the benefit of his clients. Scott’s graphic design and web development background allows him to create and utilize high caliber technology and marketing solutions for his clients. Scott incorporates many innovative tools and technologies to serve his clients including: professional photography equipment, a quadcopter (drone), property websites for each of his listings and 3D Walk Through technology. He leads the local market in the adoption of new marketing techniques - for example, check out WalkThroughThisHome.com. In 2007, Scott began providing in-depth analysis and commentary on the local real estate market via his real estate blog, HarrisonburgHousingToday.com. Since that time, he created many other valuable online resources for the local community such as: HarrisonburgHousingMarket.com, HarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com, HarrisonburgAssessments.com, HarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com, HarrisonburgTownhouses.com, BuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com, SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com and HarrisonburgRealEstateResources.com. Scott and his wife, Shaena, live in Rockingham County with their two children, Luke and Emily. In his free time, Scott enjoys spending time with his family, traveling, coaching middle school volleyball and operating TakeThemAMeal.com and PerfectPotluck.com.
How To Navigate The Home Purchasing ProcessBuyingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
The Best Marketing Strategies For Selling Your Home SellingAHomeInHarrisonburg.com
Harrisonburg & Rockingham County Property SearchScottPRogers.com
Analysis and Commentary on our Local Real Estate MarketHarrisonburgHousingMarket.com
Daily Housing Market Analysis & CommentaryHarrisonburgHousingToday.com
Fast Access to All New Listings of Homes For SaleNewListingsInHarrisonburg.com
Historical Record of Area Home SalesJustSoldInHarrisonburg.com
Property Transfers in Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyHarrisonburgPropertyTransfers.com
Comprehensive Data on Single Family Home NeighborhoodsHarrisonburgNeighborhoods.com
Comprehensive Data on Area Townhouse CommunitiesHarrisonburgTownhouses.com
Analysis of Real Estate Investment Options in HarrisonburgHarrisonburgInvestmentProperties.com
The Most Realistic, Immersive Way to Experience a HomeWalkThroughThisHome.com
Analysis of Property AssessmentsHarrisonburgAssessments.com
Listings With Low List Prices Compared to Assessed ValuesBestDealsInHarrisonburg.com
Trustee Sales in Harrisonburg & Rockingham CountyHarrisonburgForeclosures.com
Questions? Contact Scott anytime....SCOTT P. ROGERS, Associate Broker540-578-0102 (mobile)[email protected]
Scott P. Rogers, Associate Broker
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[10] MEET THE ANALYST / REALTOR