Retail implications: Against a very warm week last year, anticipate a cooler trend for most eastern and interior states depressing demand. Warmer temperatures to return late in the week.
• This week last year, the US was abnormally warm: Last year, the US had its 3rd warmest start to June in over 50 years. Conditions trended drier than normal in most regions.
• The East gets its rain, Texas gets rid of its rain: After a very dry trend in recent weeks, Northeast particularly can anticipate rainfall. Florida and the Southeast can expect showers and thunderstorms. A drier trend for Texas and Oklahoma allows for widespread cleanup; strong demand for pumps, generators, and chainsaws is expected.
• West warm, but still cooler than last year: A warmer trend is expected, but still cooler than strong warmth last year. Showers will fall during the week.
Impact on Retail
• Week of May 31–June 6: Cooler than last year temperature challenges demand for most regions. East gets needed rain, while saturated Texas and surrounding areas begin drying.
• Week of June 7–June 13: Strong warmth returns, bringing demand opportunities. Wetness remains in the East, while a drier Texas and Oklahoma allows for continued recovery.
Retail implications: A much warmer trend than last year for most regions is expected to drive demand for all manner of warm weather apparel, auto appearance, sun care, and air conditioners.
• Last year interior regions were coolest since 2009: The coolest 2nd week of June since 2009 for interior regions, and the wettest 2nd week of June since 2004 nationally.
• East to receive more beneficial rain: Following the prior week’s trend, anticipate the chance for showers and thunderstorms to continue for this dry area, aiding demand for lawn and garden items. Texas and surrounding areas continue to dry up.
• Cooler and wetter Southwest: California and the Southwest will be cooler compared to last year, lowering demand for cold drinks and air conditioners. Showers and thunderstorms are possible.
Retail implications: Cooler weather will continue from Britain to Ukraine, which hinders seasonal demand, while southerly winds will pump warmer Mediterranean air into central Europe, boosting demand like sandals and soft drinks.
• Rain along the coast: Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be relegated to western coastal areas while a few light showers drift inland to central Europe. An area of rain and thunder will form over western Turkey late in the week.
• Briefly warmer for the northwest: The warm air over central Europe will expand into Britain ahead of a cold front while the cool pool in the east remains. Light rain continues north and south but central areas stay drier.
Impact on Retail
• Week of May 31–June 6: Warmer Mediterranean air will enter central Europe. Demand for seasonal products can be expected in southern and central Europe.
• Week of June 6–June 13: Cooler than last year temperature and heavy showers will boost demand for products like raincoats and knitwear.
Retail implications: Cooler than last year temperatures across the west, and unseasonably cool across Eastern Europe boosting demand for knitwear, while limiting demand for ice cream.
• Warmer than normal, cooler than last year: Temperature is seasonable to warmer than normal, but still averaging cooler than last year, across the west. Eastern Europe is also cooler than last year, but is also unseasonably cool.
• Showers cover more area: Several bands of showers will move across the continent squeezing the dry into a band across north central regions. Heavier showers will develop over mountainous areas of the south possible causing localized flash flooding in the valleys.
