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Jupiter European Opportunities SICAV Cédric de Fonclare Citywire Fund Selector, Berlin 16 th -18 th November 2011 November 2011 Picking Winners Through the Market Cycle
Transcript
Page 1: Jupiter

Jupiter European Opportunities SICAV

Cédric de Fonclare

Citywire Fund Selector, Berlin

16th-18th November 2011

November 2011

Picking Winners Through the Market Cycle

Page 2: Jupiter

Agenda

Our philosophy and process

Current positioning

Portfolio data

Stock picking in a macro-driven environment

1

Page 3: Jupiter

2

Investment philosophy

Stock picking

Growth

Pragmatic approach

Performance driven

Focus on fundamentals

Structural vs cyclical

Valuation in context of cycle

Focus on risk-adjusted return

Direct company contact – know what you invest in

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3

Investment process

Stock selection

1. Company meetings 2. Validation

4. Position monitoring 3. Valuation

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4

Risk control

Monitoring

Performance review

Active risk ex post /

ex ante analytics (Barra)

Central dealing desk

(Charles River)

Portfolio analytics (FactSet)

Formal Informal

Deal sheets

Team framework

Index awareness

Investment process

Liaise with risk analytical team

Page 6: Jupiter

Agenda

Our philosophy and process

Current positioning

Portfolio data

Stock picking in a macro-driven environment

5

Page 7: Jupiter

6

Portfolio information

Top twenty holdings % Portfolio features

Source: Jupiter as at 31.10.11. Past performance is no guide to the future.

Investable market cap split

Number of holdings 58

Equities 95.0.%

Cash 5.0%

Top 10 holdings 29.3%

GlaxoSmithKline 3.7

Fresenius Medical Care 3.3

Sanofi. 3.2

SAP 3.1

Syngenta 2.8

HSBC 2.8

Reed Elsevier 2.7

Bayer 2.6

Linde 2.6

Zodiac Aerospace 2.5

SES 2.5

British American Tobacco 2.4

Intertek 2.1

Experian 2.0

Swatch 2.0

DNB NOR 1.9

Novo Nordisk 1.9

Adidas 1.8

Essilor International 1.8

Safran 1.7

Small: below €1bn

Mid: €1bn-5bn

Large: €5bn+

Excludes cash

Page 8: Jupiter

Top 20 active positions

7

Name Active weight % Name Active weight %

Fresenius Medical Care 3.3 Bayer 2.0

Reed Elsevier 2.7 Experian 2.0

Zodiac Aerospace 2.6 Swatch 1.9

Syngenta 2.6 DNB Nor 1.9

SES 2.5 Dufry 1.8

SAP 2.4 Adidas 1.7

Linde 2.4 Safran 1.7

GlaxoSmithKline 2.3 Essilor 1.7

Intertek 2.2 Smiths Group 1.6

Sanofi 2.0 Vallourec 1.6

Source: Barra as at 31.10.11.

Page 9: Jupiter

8

Portfolio breakdown

Geographical breakdown Sector breakdown

Source: Jupiter, FactSet as at 31.10.11.

Page 10: Jupiter

Relative positioning

9

Sector weightings relative to FTSE World Europe

Source: Jupiter, FactSet as at 31.10.11.

Page 11: Jupiter

Relative positioning

10

Country weightings relative to FTSE World Europe

Source: Jupiter, FactSet as at 31.10.11.

Page 12: Jupiter

11

Examples of investment themes

Unique assets Galp

Market leaders ASML

Demographics Syngenta

Outsourcing SGS

Investment themes

Globalisation Zodiac

Emerging Markets Nokian Tyres

Energy demand Vallourec

Page 13: Jupiter

Agenda

Our philosophy and process

Current positioning

Portfolio data

Stock picking in a macro-driven environment

12

Page 14: Jupiter

Portfolio analysis

13

Source: Credit Suisse HOLT 9.11.11. *CFROI = Cashflow Return on Investment. **Leverage = Debt / (Debt + Equity).

Fund FTSE World Difference

Sales Growth 5yr 7.41 6.69 0.72

CFROI* (3yr Median) 11.77 8.62 3.15

CFROI 2011e 11.67 8.50 3.16

CFROI 2012e 11.88 9.05 2.84

Leverage** 25.58 35.27 -9.69

P/E 2011e 13.16 11.60 1.56

EV/EBITDA 2010 10.21 9.06 1.15

Premium for quality not significant

Page 15: Jupiter

Jupiter European Opportunities SICAV

14

Calendar year performance

On 10.10.2005 the benchmark for this Fund was changed from the FTSE Actuaries World (Euro) to FTSE World Europe Index (Euro), all benchmark figures are using the new benchmark. Source: FE, tax gross, fees net, bid – bid, EUR, Total Return to 31.10.11. Sector: FO Equity – Europe inc UK. Past performance is no guide to the future.

YTD % 2010 % 2009 % 2008 % 2007 % 2006 % 2005 % 2004 %

European Opportunities SICAV -10.33 16.46 27.69 -38.72 1.28 32.21 29.69 18.39

FTSE World Europe -9.07 11.70 33.14 -43.23 3.61 20.69 26.80 12.59

Position in sector 111 / 193 48 / 188 122 / 186 32 / 177 85 / 150 7 / 133 30 / 121 12 / 105

Page 16: Jupiter

Jupiter European Opportunities SICAV

15

Performance

On 10.10.2005 the benchmark for this Fund was changed from the FTSE Actuaries World (Euro) to FTSE World Europe Index (Euro), all benchmark figures are using the new benchmark. Source: FE, tax gross, fees net, bid – bid, EUR, Total Return to 17.08.01. to 31.10.11. Sector: FO Equity – Europe inc UK. Past performance is no guide to the future.

1 year % 3 years % 5 years % Since inception %

European Opportunities SICAV -4.86 29.52 -12.55 23.30

FTSE World Europe -5.56 21.56 -17.79 12.45

Position in sector 92 / 190 63 / 179 37 / 149 15 / 78

Page 17: Jupiter

Stock contribution to return

16

Top 20 contributors to return

Source: Jupiter/FactSet, 31.10.10 to 30.10.11. Highlighted stocks no longer held. Buy and hold basis and excluding cash. Past performance is no guide to the future.

Company

Contribution to

return % Company

Contribution to

return %

GlaxoSmithKline 0.58 Adidas 0.25

SAP 0.51 CGG Veritas 0.25

Synthes 0.47 Wolseley 0.25

British American Tobacco 0.43 Telenor 0.21

ASML 0.40 Prudential 0.20

Syngenta 0.37 Sanofi 0.19

Fresenius Medical Care 0.36 Intertek 0.18

Linde 0.27 Nestle 0.18

Experian 0.27 SGS 0.17

Zodiac Aerospace 0.27 Sage 0.13

Top 20 Total 5.94%

Page 18: Jupiter

Stock contribution to return

17

Bottom 20 contributors to return

Company

Contribution to

return % Company

Contribution to

return %

BNP Paribas -1.08 Nordea Bank -0.32

Vallourec -0.99 Actelion -0.31

YIT -0.74 Bayer -0.31

Nyrstar -0.71 HSBC -0.30

Lloyds Banking -0.57 Smiths Group -0.25

ING -0.41 Inmarsat -0.24

Credit Suisse -0.40 Allianz -0.22

Nobel Biocare -0.39 Ageas -0.20

Metro -0.38 Philips -0.18

Deutsche Boerse -0.37 AMEC -0.16

Bottom 20 Total -8.53%

Source: Jupiter/FactSet, 31.10.10 to 30.10.11. Highlighted stocks no longer held. Buy and hold basis and excluding cash. Past performance is no guide to the future.

Page 19: Jupiter

Agenda

Our philosophy and process

Current positioning

Portfolio data

Stock picking in a macro-driven environment

18

Page 20: Jupiter

Outlook

19

Deleveraging will take years, leading to a low growth environment

and further market volatility

Page 21: Jupiter

20

The scale of European debt

Source: IMF Sept 2011. *Most recent data divided by annual GDP (projected for 2011). Nonfinancial corporates’ gross debt includes intercompany loans and

trade credit, and these can differ significantly across countries. **World Economic Outlook projections for 2011. Net general government debt is calculated as

gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments. ^Gross government debt shown.

Page 22: Jupiter

10-year sovereign yields under stress

21

Source: Bloomberg November 2011.

Greece Italy

Portugal Ireland

Page 23: Jupiter

GDP growth forecasts are falling

22

2008 2009 2010 2011e 2012e 2013e

Private

consumption 0.3 -1.7 1.0 0.4 0.4 1.1

Public

consumption 2.3 2.0 0.7 0.3 -0.2 0.1

Low growth environment set to continue

Source: European Commission November 2011

Page 24: Jupiter

Steps in the right direction?

What has been agreed so far (in principle)?

Bank recapitalisation plan

EFSF “leverage” via bond insurance

50% Greek haircut

What hasn’t happened yet?

Need for even greater bank recapitalisation?

Implementation of austerity – actions not words…

Will the ECB need to be more aggressive?

23

Page 25: Jupiter

Outlook

24

Even so, European companies have global reach and strong

balance sheets, while equity valuations are supportive

Page 26: Jupiter

25

Average international sales exposure by region

Source: Goldman Sachs Research estimates, Quantum database.

Europe is one of the most export-focused regions

Page 27: Jupiter

26

Net income margins driven by operating margins

Source: I/B/E/S, Datastream, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, May 2011

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

EBITDA Net income (RHS)Margins:

Page 28: Jupiter

27

Operating costs have fallen sharply in recent years

Source: I/B/E/S, Datastream, Worldscope, Goldman Sachs Global ECS Research, May 2011

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

Depr. & Amort. Interest Tax Operating costs (RHS)Different costs as a % of sales:

Page 29: Jupiter

28

Cash* on MSCI Europe* balance sheets

Source: Worldscope. *Bottom-up aggregated, ex-financials and companies with short record.

Page 30: Jupiter

29

Leverage across sectors

European sector net debt/EBITDA 2012E

Source: Citigroup, DataStream, CIRA 2012 estimates.

Page 31: Jupiter

Cyclically adjusted P/E

30

Source: Citigroup 08.11.11.

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

European PE - on 10yr Average Earnings European P/B, RHS

Page 32: Jupiter

Trailing P/E ex financials

31

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

73 78 83 88 93 98 03 08

Pan Europe ex Financials - Trailing P/E

Source: Citigroup 28.10.11.

Page 33: Jupiter

Valuation dispersion in Europe

32

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10

12m Fwd P/E (Most Expensive/Cheapest Quintile)

Source: Citigroup 20.10.11.

Page 35: Jupiter

Outlook

No quick solution to the eurozone

debt crisis…

…but politicians are taking steps in

the right direction

Domestic growth likely to remain

weak for longer…

…but European companies are

global players

Earnings expectations are falling… …but equities are cheap on

historical multiples

34

Volatility to continue, but high quality businesses can still prosper

Page 36: Jupiter

35

Disclosure

Jupiter Asset Management Limited („JAM‟) is registered in England and Wales (no. 2036243). The registered office is 1 Grosvenor Place, London

SW1X 7JJ. JAM is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority whose address is 25 The North Colonnade, Canary Wharf,

London E14 5HS.

This presentation is intended for investment professionals and not for the benefit of private investors. However any one attending the presentation

or who has the opportunity to view the accompanying slides should bear in mind that the value of an investment in a unit trust and the income from

it can go down as well as up. It may be affected by exchange rate variations and you may not get back the amount invested. Initial charges are

likely to have a greater proportionate effect on returns if investments are liquidated in the shorter term. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Current

tax levels and reliefs will depend on the nature of the holding and details are contained in the key features documents. Past performance should

not be seen as a guide to future performance.

This document contains information based on the FTSE World Europe and the FTSE 100 Indices. 'FTSE®' is a trade mark jointly owned by the

London Stock Exchange Plc and The Financial Times Limited and is used by FTSE International Limited („FTSE‟) under licence. The FTSE World

Europe and the FTSE 100 indices are calculated by FTSE. FTSE does not sponsor, endorse or promote the product referred to in this document

and is not in any way connected to it and does not accept any liability in relation to its issue, operation and trading. All copyright and database

rights in the index values and constituent list vest in FTSE.

This document contains information based on the MSCI Europe ex Financials Index. Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to

compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the

results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness,

merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI,

any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect,

special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further

distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI‟s express written consent.

For your security we may record or randomly monitor all telephone calls. If you are unsure of the suitability of an investment please contact your

financial advisor. Any data or views given should not be construed as investment advice. Every effort is made to ensure the accuracy of the

information but no assurance or warranties are given.

2511_SCV_EUR OPPS_CDF.


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