Ageing and attitudes

Justyna Salamońska

Migration Policy Centre, EUI

Forum on Migration, Citizenship and Demography: Conference on Demography

4-5 February 2016

108/02/2016 MPC - www.migrationpolicycentre.eu

Context and overview

• Europe is ageing

• Immigration seen as one of the solutions to ageing

• Attitudes towards immigration may be affected by ageing– Overview of survey data on attitudes by age group

– Determinants of attitudes at micro and macro level (regressions)

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Projected changes in the structure of population in the EU by age (EC 2015)

General conceptual framework on attitudes…

• Immigrants as a threat (group threat theory: Blalock 1967; Blumer 1958; Meuleman et al. 2009; Quillian 1995; Sides and Citrin 2007)– Competition over resources (jobs, but also access to services etc.), in particular

among socially and economically vulnerable

– Threat more pronounced in contexts with scarce resources: economic conditions, size of outgroup.

– Also a threat to collective identity and homogeneity of the society

– Threat: real or perceived

• BUT intergroup contact theory explains how interactions may reduce negative sentiments (Allport 1954; Schneider 2008)

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…and impact of ageing

• Attitudes differ depending on individual and contextual characteristics:– Several studies found that older people more likely to hold negative

attitudes (Card et al. 2005; Ceobanu and Escandell 2010)

– Demographic characteristics of the country (Ceobanu and Koropeckyj-Cox 2013)

– Political-ideological climate (Semyonov et al. 2008)

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Evidence

Eurobarometer:DV1: Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) (totally disagree/tend to disagree)

[EB 81.2, March 2014]

DV2: What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment? Immigration (mentioned)

[EB 83.3, May 2015]

DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently solve the problem of Europe's ageing population (tend to disagree/it depends)

[EB 66.3, November/December 2006]

� Micro (individual) level (I)

� Macro (country) level (II)

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Micro (individual) level (I)

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‘Migrants don’t contribute’

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Country/Year 2003 2006 2008 2012 2014

Italy 0.52 0.56 0.61 0.52 0.63

Greece 0.60 0.57 0.56 0.68 0.63

Belgium 0.74 0.61 0.63 0.61 0.57

Austria 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.51 0.56

France 0.56 0.52 0.47 0.49 0.52

Spain 0.52 0.52 0.27 0.47 0.48

Germany 0.68 0.68 0.61 0.45 0.42

Denmark 0.59 0.54 0.41 0.40 0.41

Netherlands 0.57 0.44 0.42 0.37 0.40

Ireland 0.54 0.39 0.37 0.43 0.36

UK 0.66 0.51 0.53 0.40 0.33

Portugal 0.28 0.31 0.28 0.31 0.32

Finland 0.40 0.44 0.39 0.34 0.30

Luxembourg 0.52 0.51 0.44 0.25 0.27

Sweden 0.32 0.17 0.15 0.10 0.08

‘Migrants don’t contribute’ by age group

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‘Migrants don’t contribute’ by age group (2014)

Country/age

group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older

Greece 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.62 0.68

Italy 0.63 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.70

France 0.52 0.55 0.46 0.45 0.59

Austria 0.56 0.47 0.51 0.55 0.64

Netherlands 0.40 0.42 0.48 0.42 0.32

Belgium 0.57 0.41 0.57 0.52 0.68

Denmark 0.41 0.40 0.37 0.40 0.45

Spain 0.48 0.40 0.41 0.48 0.57

Germany 0.42 0.31 0.42 0.45 0.43

Portugal 0.32 0.27 0.29 0.35 0.34

Luxembourg 0.27 0.26 0.25 0.35 0.23

UK 0.33 0.25 0.35 0.29 0.37

Finland 0.30 0.25 0.23 0.31 0.34

Ireland 0.36 0.21 0.37 0.37 0.41

Sweden 0.08 0.08 0.03 0.09 0.10

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Migration as a concern for the country by age group (2015)

Country/age

group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older

Germany 0.47 0.49 0.42 0.50 0.46

Denmark 0.36 0.37 0.26 0.33 0.43

Italy 0.31 0.34 0.27 0.32 0.32

Sweden 0.27 0.33 0.18 0.25 0.33

Netherlands 0.23 0.32 0.27 0.18 0.20

Austria 0.31 0.27 0.25 0.32 0.37

Luxembourg 0.14 0.26 0.10 0.11 0.16

Belgium 0.24 0.22 0.22 0.23 0.26

UK 0.36 0.19 0.29 0.35 0.48

France 0.12 0.12 0.06 0.09 0.18

Finland 0.05 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05

Greece 0.10 0.06 0.12 0.13 0.09

Spain 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.08 0.05

Ireland 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.08

Portugal 0.03 0.02 0.06 0.02 0.02

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‘Migration doesn’t solve the ageing

problem’ by age group (2006)

Country/age

group Total 18 to 24 25 to 39 40 to 54 55 and older

Greece 0.74 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.77

France 0.66 0.72 0.65 0.65 0.65

Luxembourg 0.63 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.54

Austria 0.73 0.71 0.70 0.74 0.77

Ireland 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.71

Italy 0.64 0.67 0.64 0.60 0.66

UK 0.74 0.64 0.77 0.73 0.77

Germany 0.68 0.64 0.70 0.69 0.68

Portugal 0.58 0.62 0.54 0.61 0.58

Netherlands 0.63 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.62

Sweden 0.46 0.57 0.38 0.50 0.43

Belgium 0.70 0.57 0.77 0.70 0.70

Finland 0.47 0.44 0.46 0.49 0.48

Denmark 0.52 0.36 0.51 0.53 0.58

Spain 0.39 0.36 0.38 0.33 0.45

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Individual level determinants of attitudes

Binomial logistic regression

DV1: Immigrants contribute a lot to (OUR COUNTRY) (totally/tend to disagree)

DV2: What do you think are the two most important issues facing (OUR COUNTRY) at the moment? Immigration (mentioned)

DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently solve the problem of Europe's ageing population (tend to disagree/it depends)

IVs: age, education, occupation, left-right political scale, gender, city dwelling, country dummies

Hypothesis:Negative feelings towards immigration and immigrants more likely among older individuals, political right voters

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Binomial logistic regression models

DV1: Migrants don't contribute to the

country (2014)

DV2: Immigration an important issue for

the country (2015)

DV3: Migrants don't solve ageing

problem (2006)

IVs Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z|

Age when education

finished -0.067 0.004 0.000 -0.018 0.004 0.000 -0.030 0.004 0.000

Status

(reference:

at work)

Unemployed 0.282 0.065 0.000 -0.134 0.092 0.146 0.063 0.087 0.469

In education -0.301 0.093 0.001 0.287 0.107 0.007 -0.290 0.090 0.001

Other 0.186 0.053 0.000 -0.120 0.064 0.060 0.009 0.054 0.866

Males -0.021 0.037 0.562 0.019 0.043 0.656 0.020 0.039 0.602

Age -0.002 0.002 0.288 0.009 0.002 0.000 -0.002 0.002 0.250

Position

right-left

scale

(reference:

left and

centre)

Right 0.689 0.061 0.000 0.368 0.068 0.000 0.291 0.062 0.000

Undefined 0.440 0.055 0.000 0.011 0.071 0.876 0.345 0.057 0.000

City dwellers (reference:

others) -0.221 0.043 0.000 -0.118 0.051 0.020 -0.191 0.044 0.000

Country

dummies (not shown)

Constant 1.318 0.133 0.000 -1.929 0.155 0.000 1.279 0.129 0.000

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Binomial logistic regression models

IVs

DVs

DV1:

Migrants

don't

contribut

e to the

country

(2014)

DV2:

Immigrati

on an

important

issue for

the

country

(2015)

DV3:

Migrants

don't

solve

ageing

problem

(2006)

Age +Position right-left scale

(reference: left and centre)

Right + + +Undefined + +

Age when education finished - - -

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Macro (country) level (II)

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Individual and country level

determinants of attitudes

DV3: The arrival of immigrants in Europe can efficiently solve the problem of Europe’s ageing population (tend to disagree/it depends)

Micro IVs: concern about pensions, elderly care, left-right political scale positioning, age, education, occupation, left-right political scale, gender, city dwelling, country dummies

Macro IVs: GDP, unemployment, share of foreign born, share of aged 65+

Hypotheses:A. Negative feelings towards immigration more likely among older persons,

political right voters and not concerned with pensions and elderly care

B. Negative perception of immigration in countries where population ageing less pronounced (share of aged 65+)

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Binary logistic regression, DV3: ‘Migration

doesn’t solve the ageing problem’

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Model 1 (micro) Model 2 (macro)

IVs Coef. Std. Err. P>|z| Coef. Std. Err. P>|z|

Age when education finished -0.029 0.003 0.000 -0.029 0.003 0.000

Status (reference: at work) Unemployed 0.079 0.067 0.242 0.081 0.067 0.230

In education -0.211 0.071 0.003 -0.212 0.071 0.003

Other 0.046 0.044 0.287 0.048 0.044 0.273

Pensions important issue 0.013 0.032 0.689 0.015 0.032 0.637

Elderly care important issue -0.177 0.038 0.000 -0.178 0.038 0.000

Males 0.001 0.031 0.968 0.002 0.031 0.961

Age 0.001 0.001 0.444 0.001 0.001 0.457

Position right-left scale (reference:

left and centre)Right 0.216 0.047 0.000 0.215 0.047 0.000

Undefined 0.271 0.042 0.000 0.270 0.042 0.000

City dwellers (reference: others) -0.163 0.035 0.000 -0.161 0.035 0.000

Country dummies (not shown)

GDPpc -0.029 0.007 0.000

Unemployment -0.067 0.039 0.083

Share of foreign citizens 1.481 1.245 0.234

Share aged 65+ -4.230 3.888 0.277

Constant 1.148 0.116 0.000 3.019 0.720 0.000

Binary logistic regression, DV3: ‘Migration

doesn’t solve the ageing problem’

IVs

DVs

Model 1 (micro) Model 2 (macro)

Individual level

Age

Pensions important issue

Elderly care important issue - -

Position right-left scale

(reference: left and centre)

Right + +

Undefined + +

Age when education finished- -

Country level

GDPpc -

Share aged 65+

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Conclusions

• Large between country variation in attitudes

• Views on immigration shifted with now majority perceiving immigrants as contributing to their countries; however migration is also a source of concern

• Conventional assumption of older people being more negative towards immigration needs to be problematised

• Lack of longitudinal data to examine the individual level effects

• Further developments: interactions between age and political right vote, voting outcome at the country level

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