Juvenile Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee
September 1, 2010DAS Exec. Building 155 Cottage, BAM Conference
Torri Lynn (Chair) Linn County Juvenile DepartmentMark Eddy, Ph.D. Oregon Social Learning CenterDonna Keddy Oregon Department of Human ServicesDavid Koch Multnomah County Juvenile DepartmentJeffrey Lichtenberg Jefferson County Juvenile DepartmentColette Peters Oregon Youth Authority<Vacant>
• Welcome, Introductions (Torri, Damon)
• Review July 29 small group meeting (Torri)• Progress on demand using community youth (Damon)• Population trends, Forecast tracking (Damon)• Roundtable – Juvenile Justice Issues• Next Steps: October forecast, model work• Next meeting:
Wednesday, September 22, 2010, 1:30 – 3:30 p.m. (same place)
Small Group Meeting Review• Met July 29, 2010• Review of OYA data for 2005 – 2010 Parole and
Probation Youth (felony adjudications)• Mirror population of high risk youth in communities
closely resembling the risk population in YCF.• Group consensus that youth being supervised in the
community by counties and OYA is a primary feeder into the YCF and should be part of the formula.
• Goal for the full committee meeting was to run the previously unrepresented probation populations of youth supervised by both counties and OYA as part of the formula to determine the juvenile closed custody forecast.
Small Group Meeting Review
• Follow-up Work, Progress:• New data needed/wanted:
– Need county supervision – who, where, when, why.– Want new predictors: detention, probation violations– Want risk assessments: Damon is confused – JCP,
RNA, etc.
• Data received from OYA. (No good PV data.)• In progress: Development of model based on
the community placements.• Most data work completed, but preliminary
model not yet functional.
Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth
• Current referral-based approach:– Drop in demand more than practitioners’ observations– Assessment of all criminal referrals
• How can the model ‘see’ the practitioner viewpoint?– Kids on probation or parole - “community youth”– County or OYA supervision– … versus “anyone who’s ever been referred”
• Risk pool– Cleaner: better defined, more consistent– More closely tied to actual behavior since reviewed– Keep until adult? – Handles repeat entries (half or more)
Concepts: Demand Using Community Youth
• Potential Factors to Include– Referral information (same info as current)
• Most recent referral• History of referrals for youth
– Probation violations – no data– Detention episodes– Current supervision (esp. Parole)
Population Trends and Tracking
• Close Custody Populations• PSR steadily reducing • DOC 2007 2008 increasing, 2009 2010 flat or
slightly down • DOC and PSR Trends
– DOC and PSR – actual beds vs. forecast– DCC population – demand index vs. forecast
• Referrals
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
Discertionary (DCC) Adult Court (DOC) Public Safety Reserve (PSR)
Population Trends and TrackingClose Custody Populations – past decade
Population Trends and TrackingClose Custody Populations – past decade
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
Discertionary (DCC) Adult Court (DOC) Public Safety Reserve (PSR)
Population Trends and Tracking
• Forecasts---• DOC and PSR populations, forecast:
– Following expected trends– Forecast: No significant change expected
• Demand forecast– Based on demand index
Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Long Term
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
Jan
2019
Jan
2020
Jan
2021
Adult Court (DOC) FCST Adult Court (DOC)
Public Safety Reserve (PSR) FCST Public Safety Reserve (PSR)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013
Adult Court (DOC) FCST Adult Court (DOC)
Public Safety Reserve (PSR) FCST Public Safety Reserve (PSR)
Population Trends and Tracking DOC and PSR Populations – Actual, Forecast
Error: +1.6% (Forecast is high by 6 beds)
Error: +5% (Forecast is high by 4 beds)
Population Trends and Tracking• DCC: Discretionary bed demand forecast
– Based on demand index (no actuals to compare)– Compare to changes in demand index
• Demand from
past forecasts
• Demand index is down 15% since Jan. 2010• Graphs: Demand index and other referral trends
Forecast Date DCC Demand
April 2008 800 and almost flat
Oct. 2008 740 and decreasing
April 2009 550 and increasing
Oct. 2009 550 and increasing
April 2010 500 and flat
Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand (Discretionary Bed Demand)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC Demand Index
Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Number Referrals Monthly
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC Demand Index Referrals
Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Felony Referrals
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC Demand Index Felonies
Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Youths’ Past Felony Referrals
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC Demand Index Past Felonies
Population Trends and Tracking DCC Demand and Referral Trends
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC Demand Index Referrals Felonies Past Felonies
Roundtable
• Juvenile Justice Issues
• Observed Trends
• …
Next Steps
• Committee Decisions
• October forecast– Determination of demand for discretionary
• Continue work on community model?
Adjourn Meeting
• Thank you• Please call or email with any other comments,
ideas, issues, etc.• Torri Lynn 541-967-3853• Damon Bell 503-378-5732
• Next Meeting: Wednesday, September 22 at 1:30 pm
(same place)
EXTRA GRAPHS
Population Trends and Tracking Length of Stay for Releases
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC DOC PSR
N=53
N=23
Population Trends and Tracking Average Age in Population
16
17
18
19
20
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
DCC DOC PSR
Number of Juveniles
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
Parole Community Parole Home
Number of Juveniles
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
Probation OYA Community Probation OYA Home
Number of Juveniles
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Probation OYA Community Probation OYA Home Probation County [RIGHT AXIS]
Number of Juveniles
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Probation County Detention [RIGHT SIDE AXIS] Detention (not smoothed)
THE FOLLOWING SLIDES ARE FROM THE FEBRUARY 24,
2010 COMMITTEE MEETING
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
8,395 7,566 6,999 6,770 6,581 6,335 6,065 6,021 5,208 4,468
21,664 20,127 19,321 18,546 17,583 17,088 17,692 17,014 16,672 15,369
23,38121,665
19,959 19,678 18,725 18,703 19,400 19,48216,807
15,433
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Year
Nu
mb
er
FEL MIS OTH
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Year
Nu
mb
er
FEL MIS OTH
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
8,395 7,566 6,999 6,770 6,581 6,335 6,065 6,021 5,208 4,468
21,664 20,127 19,321 18,546 17,583 17,088 17,692 17,014 16,672 15,369
23,38121,665
19,959 19,678 18,725 18,703 19,400 19,48216,807
15,433
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Year
Nu
mb
er
FEL MIS OTH
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
• Referrals (felony, misdemeanor, violation, other)
• Population adjusted rate shows a stronger decline
Year Amount of Reduction
2000 2009 Number Percent Annual Percent
Felonies 8,395 4,468 3,927 47% 6.8%
Misdemeanors 21,664 15,369 6,295 29% 3.7%
Violations 23,381 15,433 7,948 34% 4.5%
Total 53,440 35,270 18,170 34% 4.5%
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals by Year and Class
2,335 2,054 1,724 1,751 1,696 1,432 1,428 1,333 1,183 1,086
953865
815 770 848763 823 796 687 639
5,100
4,6464,460 4,249 4,033
4,137 3,813 3,8883,333
2,741
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
C
B
A
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
• Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other
2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576
6,1565,395
4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053
3,4212,892
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Person Related Other
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals – Person Related / Other
2,239 2,171 2,136 2,135 2,152 2,150 1,989 1,968 1,787 1,576
6,1565,395
4,863 4,635 4,429 4,1854,076 4,053
3,4212,892
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
Person Related Other
Person Related: Sex Offense Assault Homicide Related Weapons Robbery Person Other
Other: Arson Burglary Theft Criminal Mischief Substance/Alcohol Other
53% Drop
30% Drop
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Felony Referrals -- Race and Type
African7%
Hispani12%
Other6%
White75%
African6%
Hispani18%
Other7%
White69%
African11%
Hispani13%
Other7%
White69%
African13%
Hispani26%
Other9%
White52%
2000 2009
Other
Person Related
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Misdemeanor Referrals
• Violations/other are similar to misdemeanors referrals in overall number and in change from 2000 to 2009
Statistical SummariesDecade 2000
Misdemeanor Referrals by Year and Class
11,445 10,506 9,946 9,180 8,759 8,640 9,225 8,819 8,568 7,700
2,9472,809 2,965
2,905 2,935 2,7582,925 2,728 2,636
2,334
7,1916,692
6,2606,319
5,753 5,5435,437
5,374 5,3445,271
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2,000 2,001 2,002 2,003 2,004 2,005 2,006 2,007 2,008 2,009
C
B
A
Juvenile Incarceration RateState Comparisons
• Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement• http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/asp/State_Facility_Operation.asp
• Number of committed juveniles – total• Includes state, local, public, private
• Calculated Rate: number per 100,000• Using ages 9-17 for denominator • http://ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezapop/asp/comparison_selection.asp
• Rates and change in rates: 1999 and 2006“Includes juveniles in placement in the facility as part of a court-ordered disposition. Committed juveniles may have
been adjudicated and disposed in juvenile court or convicted and sentenced in criminal court.”
Sickmund, Melissa, Sladky, T.J., and Kang, Wei. (2008) "Census of Juveniles in Residential Placement Databook."
Online. Available: http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/cjrp/
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Rate per 100,000 – Year 1999
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ver
mon
tH
awai
iW
est
Virg
inia
New
Mis
sour
iM
aryl
and
Mas
sach
uset
tsN
orth
Car
olin
aC
onne
ctic
utM
aine
New
Jer
sey
Neb
rask
aM
onta
naId
aho
Mis
siss
ippi
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Y
ork
Ark
ansa
sIll
inoi
sK
entu
cky
Pen
nsyl
vani
aG
eorg
iaD
elaw
are
Dis
tric
t of
Was
hing
ton
Min
neso
taA
laba
ma
Ten
ness
eeIo
wa
Nor
th D
akot
aC
olor
ado
Uta
hN
evad
aW
isco
nsin
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Ariz
ona
Ohi
oT
exas
Rho
de I
slan
dV
irgin
iaK
ansa
sM
ichi
gan
Indi
ana
New
Mex
ico
Flo
rida
Cal
iforn
iaS
outh
Car
olin
aO
rego
nA
lask
aLo
uisi
ana
Wyo
min
gS
outh
Dak
ota
213
311
Juvenile Incarceration RatesState Comparisons
• Rate per 100,000 – Year 2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Ver
mon
tM
issi
ssip
piH
awai
iC
onne
ctic
utM
aryl
and
Nor
th C
arol
ina
New
Jer
sey
Mas
sach
uset
tsN
ew H
amps
hire
Mai
neM
isso
uri
Neb
rask
aG
eorg
iaIll
inoi
sW
ashi
ngto
nN
ew M
exic
oA
rizon
aT
enne
ssee
Okl
ahom
aN
ew Y
ork
Loui
sian
aS
outh
Car
olin
aD
istr
ict
of C
olum
bia
Wis
cons
inV
irgin
iaD
elaw
are
Mic
higa
nM
onta
naU
tah
Ken
tuck
yU
nite
d S
tate
sN
evad
aC
alifo
rnia
Min
neso
taA
rkan
sas
Idah
oO
hio
Tex
asA
lask
aW
est
Virg
inia
Kan
sas
Ala
bam
aP
enns
ylva
nia
Iow
aO
rego
nIn
dian
aR
hode
Isl
and
Flo
rida
Col
orad
oN
orth
Dak
ota
Wyo
min
gS
outh
Dak
ota
173
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