Date post: | 22-Nov-2014 |
Category: |
Economy & Finance |
Upload: | citywirewebsite |
View: | 854 times |
Download: | 0 times |
Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund
April 2013Colin Finlayson – Investment Manager Fixed IncomeColin Finlayson Investment Manager, Fixed Income
Introducing Kames Capital
• Specialist investment management business
• 267 employees, including 83 investment
g p
Our investment capabilities
267 employees, including 83 investment professionals in Edinburgh, London and the Netherlands
F nds nder management of €64 billion*
Fixed income Equities
Property Multi asset• Funds under management of €64 billion*
• Expertise in four principal areas: fixed income, equities, properties and multi-asset
Property Multi-asset
Our clients
• Clients in the UK, Europe and Asia
• Wholly-owned subsidiary of AEGON NV, one of
Our clients
• Corporate pension funds• Public funds
the world’s leading financial services businesses • Financial institutions• Charities/foundations• Wealth managers
Source: Kames Capital as at 31 March 2013. *As at 31 December 2012
• Financial advisers
2
Our investment capabilitiesp
Team*Total
client funds Retail
pooled funds Products and services
Fixed income 24 €35.1 billion €5.0 billion
• Credit• High-yield• Strategic bond
• Core plus• Absolute return• Ethical
Equities 23 €19.3 billion €1.3 billion• All companies• High dividend• Smaller companies
• Unconstrained• Absolute return• Ethical
Property 14 €1.2 billion -• Direct (pooled and segregated)• Indirect• Specialist e.g. healthcare
Multi-asset 11 €4.0 billion €0.5 billion• Asset Allocation Service• Inflation Linked• Strategic Assets
Source: *Kames Capital as at 31 March 2013. AUM as at 31 December 2012. In addition, Kames Capital manages €4.7 billion in cash and other assets in categories not attributable to the asset classes shown.
3
Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund
• We aim to generate returns while limiting downside volatility and preserving capital
• Performance target: 3 month GBP LIBOR +2-3% p.a. net of fees over rolling 3 yearsPerformance target: 3 month GBP LIBOR 2 3% p.a. net of fees over rolling 3 years
• Primary alpha sources:
– Rates – duration neutral cross market and yield curve relative value positioning
– Credit – market neutral stock and sector selection
• No alpha derived from currency risk
• Offers investors low risk NOT no risk
Positive returns + low volatility + uncorrelated to underlying marketsPositive returns low volatility uncorrelated to underlying markets
4
Performance since launch
4.0
4.5 Total since launch
Total return (net) 4.15%
2 5
3.0
3.5
wth
Benchmark total return 1.23%Difference (net) 2.92%Total return (gross) 5.17%
1.5
2.0
2.5
% g
row
Best month (Oct 2011) 0.60%Worst month (May 2012) -0.06%Up months 14/18
0.0
0.5
1.0 Down months 4/18
Maximum Drawdown -0.32%
Volatility 0.71%
Sep
11
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12
Feb
12
Mar
12
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
12
Jul 1
2
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13Fe
b 13
Mar
13
Kames Absolute Return Bond B GBP Acc LIBOR GBP 3 Months
Sharpe Ratio 2.71%
5
Source: Lipper as at 29 March 2013. NAV to NAV total return with income reinvested. Local currency B (Acc) GBP class. Launch 30 September 2011.For table – All Fund Returns based on Cumulative Noon Lipper data. Gross Returns based on Lipper data grossed up for AMC. Benchmark is at close. Risk Statistics based on Annualised Monthly returns. Maximum Drawdown period based on Monthly Returns
Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund - lower volatility opportunityy pp y
30%
Annualised Volatility
8%
Fixed Income Asset Classes -Annualised Volatility
15%
20%
25%
4%5%6%7%8%
0%
5%
10%
0%1%2%3%4%
0%
KA
RB
Glo
bal I
G
Glo
bal H
Y
Gov
ernm
ent
Gov
ernm
ent
GB
P IG
Gov
ernm
ent
FTS
E 1
00
DA
X
0%
KA
RB
Glo
bal I
G
Glo
bal H
Y
Gov
ernm
ent
Gov
ernm
ent
GB
P IG
Gov
ernm
ent
US
G
Eur
opea
n G
UK
G
US
G
Eur
opea
n G
UK
G
Source: Kames Capital, BoAML , Bloomberg. Based on annualised standard deviation of daily returns - 30 September 2011 – 31 March 2013.
6
Delivering returns uncorrelated to the underlying marketg y g
1.30%
4 00%
4.50%
KARB Total Return vs 10yr US Treasury Yields140
4 00%
4.50%
KARB returns vs Credit market spreads
1.50%
1.70%3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
%)
160
1803.00%
3.50%
4.00%
%)
1.90%
2.10%1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
Tota
l ret
urn
(%
Yield (%
)
200
220
1 50%
2.00%
2.50% bps
Tota
l ret
urn
(%
2.30%0.50%
1.00%240
2600.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.50%0.00%
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12Fe
b 12
Mar
12
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
12Ju
l 12
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13Fe
b 13
Mar
13
KARB Total Return % UST 10yr Yields %
2800.00%
Oct
11
Nov
11
Dec
11
Jan
12Fe
b 12
Mar
12
Apr
12
May
12
Jun
12Ju
l 12
Aug
12
Sep
12
Oct
12
Nov
12
Dec
12
Jan
13Fe
b 13
Mar
13
KARB IG OAS (RHS)
Source: Kames Capital, Bloomberg and BoAML as at 31 March 2013
7
( )
Three key components
Carry module
y p
Credit Rates d lmodule module
Kames Absolute
Return BondReturn Bond Fund
8
Three investment modules
• Carry Module
– Minimum weighting of +20% within the overall fund
– Diversified range of investment grade quality bonds - maximum 2 years to maturity only
Credit Module• Credit Module
– Primary alpha focus on credit neutral relative value positions
– Net exposure limited to +/-50% within the overall fund
• Rates Module
Primary alpha focus is on duration neutral relative value positions– Primary alpha focus is on duration neutral relative value positions
– Duration range: -2.5 to +2.5 years – neutral position of 0 years’ duration
9
Carry module
• Diversified range of investment grade quality bonds
• Maximum 2 years to final legal maturity only
y
Maximum 2 years to final legal maturity only
• Minimum weighting of +20% within the overall fund
Net exposure 48%Net exposure 48%
Holdings 42
Credit module
Carry module
Rates module
Average credit rating A
Modified duration 0.7 years
Kames Absolute Return
Bond Fund
Activity since launch 28 bonds have matured2 positions sold1 RV trade
Source: Kames Capital as at 31 March 2013
10
Bond Fund
Credit module – long non-financials/short financials – via CDS
• ECB's OMT Program fuels risk rally
• Financials outperform non-financials
g
80
iTraxx Main vs. iTraxx Senior Financials - 5yr CDS
Financials outperform non financials
• Good news looks to be "priced in“
• Action - October 201240
60
spre
ad (b
ps)
Entered trade @ +27bps
– Long risk non-financials (iTraxx Main)
– Short risk financials (iTraxx Snr Fins)0
20
enio
r Fin
anci
als
• Result
– Spread widens and position reviewed
– Financials weaken post Italy/Cyprus60
-40
-20
Trax
x M
ain
-Se
Closed trade at -12bps
p y yp
– Target hit and position closed
– Low risk alpha generated for fund-80
-60
ay 1
2
un 1
2
Jul 1
2
Aug
12
ep 1
2
Oct
12
ov 1
2
Dec
12
an 1
3
eb 1
3
Mar
13
Apr
13
i T
Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 2 April 2013
11
M J J A S O N D J F M A
Credit module – long Intesa Sanpaolo/short Banco Popolare – via CDSg p p
• Italian banks mired in Euro Crisis
• Spread between stronger and weaker325
350
Intesa Sanpaolo vs Banco Popolare - 5yr CDS
Spread between stronger and weaker banks is too narrow given mounting risks
Market has mispriced relati e credit risk275
300
325
221bps of spread tightening
• Market has mispriced relative credit risk
• Action – via 5yr CDS
– Long Intesa Sanpaolo risk200
225
250
Spr
ead
(bps
)
Long Intesa Sanpaolo risk
– Short Banco Popolare risk
• Result150
175
200 Closed Trade @ 215bps
– Spread widened 95bps
– Value of Banco Popolare protection fell 2.9% relative to Intesa Sanpaolo
100
125
n 12
b 12 r 1
2
r 12
y 12
n 12
Entered Trade @ 120bps
– Alpha added without taking explicit view on market directionSource: Kames Capital and Bloomberg as at 21 June 2012. For illustrative purposes only.
Jan
Feb
Ma
Ap
May Ju
n
12
Rates module – long 10yr Australia /short 10yr US Treasuriesg y y
• Australia offers a “safe haven” alternative to core rates markets200
Australia vs US treasury - 10yr yield spread
• But the easy money has been made
• Discipline needed to add further al e
180
190
ld s
prea
d (b
ps)
value
• Action – July and August 2012
– Buy Australia Government 2022 Bonds160
170
AU
ST
vs U
ST
yiel
Entered trade @ 159bps
Entered trade @ 162bpsCheap
Buy Australia Government 2022 Bonds
– Sell 10yr US Bond Futures
• Result140
150
10yr
A
Fair
– Two trades successfully undertaken
– Cumulative excess total return of 3.56%
– Low risk alpha generated for portfolio120
130
12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12Closed trade @ 141bps
Closed trade @ 137bpsRich
p g p
Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 10 October 2012. For illustrative purposes only.
Apr
Apr
Apr
May
May
Jun
Jun
Jul
Jul
Aug
Aug
Sep
Sep
Oct
13
KARB investment modules – allocation since launch
200%
KARB Module Allocation - Gross exposure
90%100%
KARB module allocation - Net exposure
120%
140%
160%
180%
osur
e %
40%50%60%70%80%
sure
%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Gro
ss e
xpo
0%10%20%30%40%
Net
exp
os
0%
20%
40%
ct 1
1ov
11
ec 1
1an
12
eb 1
2ar
12
pr 1
2ay
12
un 1
2ul
12
ug 1
2ep
12
ct 1
2ov
12
ec 1
2an
13
eb 1
3ar
13
-30%-20%-10%
ct 1
1ov
11
ec 1
1an
12
eb 1
2ar
12
pr 1
2ay
12
un 1
2ul
12
ug 1
2ep
12
ct 1
2ov
12
ec 1
2an
13
eb 1
3ar
13
Carry Credit Rates Cash Total Carry Credit Rates Cash Total
Oc
No
De Ja Fe Ma
Ap
Ma Ju Ju Au
Se Oc
No
De Ja Fe Ma
Cash Carry Credit Rates
Oc
No
De Ja Fe Ma
Ap
Ma Ju Ju Au
Se Oc
No
De Ja Fe Ma
Rates Cash Carry Credit Net Exposure
Source: Kames Capital as at 31 March 2013
14
AVERAGE 41% 48% 50% 19% 158% AVERAGE 41% 24% -6% 19% 78%
Aggregate Fund positioninggg g p g
Gross exposure +166%
Net exposure +98%Net exposure 98%
Modified duration +0.8 years
Number of holdings 86
Unhedged currency exposure 1.38%
Average credit rating A+
VaR 0.40%
Spread duration 0.81 years (non-beta adjusted)
Correlation to Government yields 0 12Correlation to Government yields 0.12
Correlation to Credit spreads -0.07
Source: BoAML, Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 31 March 2013. Correlation based on daily returns since launch using BoAML UK Gilt Index and BoAML Global Corporate Index. VaRcalculated at 95% over 1 month.
15
Balanced risk profilep
0.8%
Parallel Moves0.8%
Credit Spreads
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
nd re
turn
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
d re
turn
-0.4%
-0.2%
0.0%
Est
imat
ed fu
n
0 4%
-0.2%
0.0%
stim
ated
fund
-0.8%
-0.6%
bps
bps
bps
bps
1bp
1bp
bps
bps
bps
bps
E
-0.8%
-0.6%
-0.4%
Credit Credit Credit Credit CreditE
Prl
-100
b
Prl
-50b
Prl
-30b
Prl
-10b
Prl
-1
Prl
+1
Prl
+10b
Prl
+30b
Prl
+50b
Prl
+100
b Credit Spreads
Down 50%
Credit Spreads
Down 25%
Credit Spreads Up 25%
Credit Spreads Up 50%
Credit Spreads Up 100%
Source: Kames Capital as at 4 April 2013
16
Why invest in Kames Absolute Return Bond?
• Award winning fixed income team
Proven fixed income investment process
y
• Proven fixed income investment process
• Three module investment approach
• A core investment, targeting low risk cash plus returns
17
Appendicespp
18
Kames Absolute Return Bond FundLaunch date 30 September 2011Fund manager Stephen Snowden and Colin FinlaysonInvestment policies Invest in diversified portfolio of fixed interest investmentsPrimary performance target Performance target 3 month GBP LIBOR + 2%-3% net of feesExpected volatility < 5% VaR – (99% 1 month VaR)
Government 0-95%Investment Grade Corporate 0-95%
Asset allocation ranges: Bonds High Yield 0-20%Emerging Market 0-20%Cash >5%Government -75%-95%I t t G d C dit 50% 95%
Asset allocation ranges: Bonds + DerivativesInvestment Grade Credit -50%-95%High Yield Credit -20%-20%Emerging Market Credit -20%-20%Carry Module > 20%; Minimum BBB- & <2yrs maturityC dit M d l / 50% HY EM / 20%
Fund restrictionsCredit Module +/-50%; HY+EM = +/-20%Rates Module +/-75%; Duration range -2.5 to +2.5yrs Unhedged currency 0-5%Cash > 5%
B UK St li
19
Base currency UK SterlingHedged share classes Sterling, Euro, US Dollar
Know what fund you are not buying
• What Kames Absolute Return Bond is…
– Fund offering returns in line with risk budget
y y g
• And what it is not…
– Offering unrealistic returns given the risk limitsFund offering returns in line with risk budget
– Targeting a positive total return for investors
– Making use of six sources of alpha
Offering unrealistic returns given the risk limits
– Guaranteeing a given return for investors
– Focusing on a single asset class
– Sticking to what we know and are good at – Taking currency risk to generate performance
20
Absolute Return Bond Fund vs. Strategic Bond Fund
Absolute Return Bond Strategic Bond
g
Performance source Alpha + Beta Beta + Alpha
Management focus Absolute returns Total returns
Return measurement Actual return Peer group relative
Default duration Zero Positive
Credit risk Limited Unlimited
High yield limit Max 20% Up to 100%
21
Kames Absolute Return Bond fund – monthly returns since launchy
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20112011 0.60% 0.30% 0.49%
2012 0.20% -0.01% 0.37% -0.02% -0.06% 0.26% 0.44% 0.32% 0.09% 0.50% 0.02% -0.03%
2013 0 12% 0 24% 0 28%0.12% 0.24% 0.28%
Source: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 29 March 2013. Fund launched 30 September 2011
22
Credit module – long Veolia/ short Casino– via CDSg
• Both French companies70
s)
Credit Module - long Veolia / short Casino - via CDS
• Both defensive industries
• No material reason for divergence40
50
60
S s
prea
d (b
ps
Entered trade @ +46 bps
• Mean reversion trade20
30
sion
5yr
CD
S
-10
0
10
Veol
ia v
s C
as closed trade @ +15 bps
-20
Dec
11
Feb
12
Apr
12
Jun
12
Aug
12
Oct
12
Dec
12
V
Source: Bloomberg, Markit & Kames Capital as at 31 December 2012. For illustrative purposes only.
23
Rates module – long UK 10yr Index Linked Gilts /short 10yr UK Gilts
• Sharp underperformance of Index Linked Gilts vs. Conventional Gilts
g y y
285bps)
UK Index Linked vs. Conventional Gilt - 10yr Spread
• Risk-off and CPAC fears the main drivers
Market nder al ing inflation protection
275
d yi
eld
spre
ad (b
• Market undervaluing inflation protection
• Action - July 2012
– Buy UK Index Linked Gilt 2022 Bonds255
265
KT
Inde
x Li
nked
Closed trade @ 252bps
Buy UK Index Linked Gilt 2022 Bonds
– Sell 10yr UK Bond Futures
• Result235
245
T yi
eld
-10y
r UK
– Spread rewidens – reversing underperformance
– Index Linked bond excess return of 1% 225
235
v 11
c 11
n 12
b 12
ar 1
2
pr 1
2
y 12
n 12
ul 1
2
g 12
p 12
10yr
UK
T
Entered trade @ 239bps
– Low risk alpha generated for portfolioSource: Bloomberg and Kames Capital as at 11 September 2012. For illustrative purposes only.
24
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Ma
Ap
May Jun
Ju Aug
Sep
Important informationThis presentation has been prepared solely for this Citywire Event. This document and information contained herein is confidential and has been prepared and is intended for use on a confidential basis. It may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other persons or published in whole or in any part for any purpose. It is strictly for private use by its holder and may not be passed on to any third parties or otherwise publicly distributed.
p
This document is not intended for retail distribution and is directed only at investment professionals. It should not be distributed to, or relied upon by, private investors. All data in this presentation is sourced to Kames Capital unless otherwise stated. The views expressed and information provided is accurate at the time of writing. The views expressed in this document represent our understanding of the current and historical positions of the market. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and is not guaranteed. g p g
While the investment objective of absolute return funds is to achieve a positive return in all market conditions, this is not guaranteed in any way.Investment professionals must ensure that they meet their obligations in relation to their understanding of this product and the risks involved, and the extent to which this product meets the needs of their clients. Please refer to the Full Prospectus.
This document is accurate at the time of writing but can be subject to change without notification. Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc, is an umbrella type open-ended investment company with variable capital registered in the Republic of Ireland (Company Number 442106), registered office at 25-28 North Wall Quay, International Financial Services Centre, Dublin 1. Board of Directors: Andrew Bell (UK), Mike Kirby (Ireland) and Bronwyn Wright (Ireland). Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Kames Capital is an Aegon Asset Management company and includes Kames Capital plc (Company Number SC113505) and Kames Capital ManagementKames Capital is an Aegon Asset Management company and includes Kames Capital plc (Company Number SC113505) and Kames Capital Management Limited (Company Number SC212159). Both are registered in Scotland and have their registered office at Kames House, 3 Lochside Crescent, Edinburgh, EH12 9SA. Kames Capital plc is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, (FCA reference no: 144267). Kames Capital plc is the Investment Manager and Marketing Agent for Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc. Kames Capital Management Limited is an appointed representative of Scottish Equitable plc (Company Number SC144517), an Aegon company, whose registered office is 1 Lochside Crescent, Edinburgh Park, Edinburgh EH12 9SE (PRA/FCA reference no: 165548)Edinburgh, EH12 9SE (PRA/FCA reference no: 165548).
25
Important informationThe Kames Absolute Return Bond Fund is registered in the UK, Channel Islands, Ireland, Netherlands, Switzerland, Luxembourg and Malta.
For Investors in Luxembourg - Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc is a UCITS collective investment scheme registered in Luxembourg by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier. The Prospectus, Supplement and Key Investor Information of Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland)
p
plc are available from CACEIS Bank Luxembourg 5, allée Scheffer, L-2520 Luxembourg.
For Investors in the Netherlands - Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc is a UCITS collective investment scheme registered in the Netherlands by the Netherlands Authority for Financial Markets in Amsterdam. The Prospectus, Supplement and Key Investor Information of Kames Capital Investment Company (Ireland) plc are available free of charge from our website www.kamescapital.com (Dutch edition of the Key Investor Information only). p y ( ) p g p ( y y)
The Funds may not be offered directly or indirectly in the Republic of France. This presentation has not been submitted to the Autorité des marchés financiers, nor any offering material, Prospectus or information contained therein relating to the Funds, may be supplied in connection with any offer of the Funds in the Republic of France
The offering of this Fund has not been and will not be notified to the Belgian Financial Services and Markets Authority (Autoriteit voor Financiële Diensten en Markten/Autorité des Services et Marchés Financiers) nor has this document been, nor will it be, approved by the Financial Services and Markets Authority. The Fund may be offered in Belgium only to a maximum of 99 investors or to investors investing a minimum of €250,000 or to professional or institutional investors, in reliance on Article 5 of the Law of August 3, 2012. This document may be distributed in Belgium only to such investors for their personal use and exclusively for the purposes of this offering of this Fund Accordingly this document may not be used for any other purpose nor passed on to any other investor in Belgiumfor the purposes of this offering of this Fund. Accordingly, this document may not be used for any other purpose nor passed on to any other investor in Belgium.
FP ID: 2013/15622
26