Karkheh Basin Focal Project: Synthesis of approach, findings

and lessons

Poolad Karimi on behalf of the BFP1 team

2nd International Forum on Water & Food

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

November 2008

BFP1- Basin Focal Project

Source: IWMI,2008

Work Package 2Water Availability

WP 2-Approach

1. Synthesis studies2. Time series meteorological and hydrological data collection from

secondary sources/relevant ministries3. Identification of information/data gaps and filling4. Quick understanding of hydrology and water balance, a simple

spreadsheet water account applied with help of Mac Kirby5. Detailed hydrological analysis

– Assessment of the spatial variability in land use classification, precipitation and actual evapotranspiration using surface energy balance model

– Time series analysis of stream flow mainly using Flow Duration Curves (FDC) approach

– Detailed sub-catchment level water balance analysis using HBV and SWAT1 models

SWAT1: Soil Water Assessment Tool

Spatial distribution of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration (2002-3)

Rainfall distribution in the Basin (2002-3)

Actual evapotranspiration in the Basin (2002-3)

Source: Lal Muthuwatta, IWMI

Percentage distribution of ETa from different land use classes

(year 2002-03, summary of SEBS results)

Irrigated crops11%

Rain fed crops29%

Orchards2%Forest

21%

Grass land7%

Bare Lands/urban

areas3%

Range Lands27%

Water7%

Bare Lands/Urban

areas27%

Irrigated crops39%

Other land classes

27%

(a) Upper Karkheh (b) Lower Karkheh

Source: Lal Muthuwatta, IWMI

WP 2 Findings

• Scarcity and Competing Demands Meeting the competing water demands is emerging as the key challenge in Karkheh mainly because of increasing allocations for irrigation

• Groundwater Overdraft Rapidly increasing reliance on groundwater use for agriculture, especially in upper Karkheh. Groundwater withdrawals have already exceeded the safe limits in Gamasiab and Gharsu sub-basins and pose a threat to agricultural sustainability.

• High Variability in ET1 Remote sensing analysis showed high inter- and intra-subcatchment level variability in evapotranspiration which is mainly attributed to fragmented and diverse land uses in Karkheh-possible opportunities

• Flow Variability and Planning FDC2 analysis reveals that planning on the basis of mean annual surface water availability could only provide a supply security in the range of 35-50%. There is a need to incorporate the natural variability of surface water availability in water resources development and allocation strategies, particularly for low flow years when meeting the competing water demands becomes more difficult.

ET1: Evapotranspiration

FDC2: Flow Duration Curve

Hawr Al Azim Swamp Devolution

Year 1973-76 Year 2000

7,600 Km2 of primary wetlands areas disappeared

Source: UNEP, 2001

Work Package 3: Water Productivity

WP 3 - Approach

1. Synthesis study

2a. Secondary data collection (district) Crop production, Livestock production, Forest production, Prices

2b. Remote sensing based analysis Land use classification, Yield estimation for major crops, RS determined Et (surface energy balance), RS interpolated yield

3. Farm Survey Sample survey, all sub-basins in Karkheh Small, medium, large farmers; rainfed, irrigated and mixed farms. data on factors of production

RS: Remote Sensing

Et: Evapotranspiration

Source: IWMI

A paper based on Water Productivity is submitted for BPF Special Session, 13 IWRA World Water Congress at Montpellier, France – September 2008. Source: IWMI

WP 3 Findings

1. Likely substantial room for water productivity through changed practices. Studies done for the project found that achievable increases in water productivity through reduced soil moisture loss and more efficient irrigation application could reduce irrigation requirements by 60 million m3 for the entire basin.

2. Likely substantial room for water productivity increase through reallocation, though our models not sufficient for analysis

3. Importance of Livestock (fish, others?)

Work Package 1Poverty

WP 1-Approach

1. Synthesis study

2. Use Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for Iran covering the last 2 decades and calculate urban and rural poverty lines for Iran

• We were lucky it existed

3. Re-categorize data to perform analysis on the Karkheh and its sub-basins

WP 1 Findings

1. Poverty in Iran and the Karkheh has dropped over the last 20 years, particularly in rural areas.

2. The Karkheh basin is less poor than is Iran as a whole.

3. Rural areas of the Karkheh are less poor than urban, when adjusted for differing costs of living

4. The poorest rural area of the Karkheh is the lower reach-based on 6 sub-basin breakdown

Work Package 4Institutional Analysis

WP 4- Approach

1. Examine the history of the basin-in terms of water use as well as the policy environment in which that use changed.

2. Gain an understanding of the formal institutions directly involved in the water sector within the Karkheh.

3. Look at those institutions within Iran in general and the Karkheh in particular which are directly related to the alleviation of poverty.

4. Look at some of the broader policy issues within Iran which are likely to influence both water use and poverty within the Karkheh.

WP 4 Findings

1. Basin has gone through a series of phases since 1900, the most recent of which has put substantial emphasis on wheat production, not water productivity. Questions of sustainability

2. “Standard” set of partially overlapping water management institutions

3. Large set of poverty alleviation institutions

4) Broader issues

• Fall of Shah, conflict with US/West and Iran-Iraq war made food self-sufficiency a national priority

• Ongoing wars on two borders and nuclear conflict with west given continued reason for policy

• Result is use of water for low productivity grains that could be imported

• Pricing and subsidy system that benefits mostly the urban sector and encourages waste-Iran now one of largest agricultural importers

• Implicit subsidy on fuel equal to 12% of GDP-targeted redistribution of about ½ would eliminate poverty

Work Package 5Water, Poverty and

Productivity Linkages(Analysis of Interventions)

PODIUMSim: 2025 Horizon

Three scenarios are developed:

1- Wheat Self-Sufficiency

2- “Sustainable” (environmental focus)

3- “Best Case” ScenarioFocus on tradeoffs and social optimums

(Food & Water Demand and Supply)

Source: Sara Marjanizadeh. 2008. Developing a “Best Case Scenario” for Karkheh River Basin Management (2025 Horizon); a Case Study from Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences of Vienna (BOKU) (March 2008). 185p

Table 5: Comparison of Different Scenarios using economic, environmental and societal criteria National economy Environment Local livelihood

Scenarios

Wheat Self Sufficiency

Other crops

Swamp Existence

GW Resources

SW Resources

Gross benefit

from crops

Spatial Distribution of Income

Wheat Policy Oriented Scenario ++ _ __ __ __ ++ +/-.

Sustainable Scenario _ _ ++ + + _ _

Values Scenario + + + + +/- + ++

++ positive impact; - negative impact; +/- neutral

Source: IWMI

WP 5 Findings

• No question that increase in water use has allowed expansion of area and increase in yields

• But now no direct connection between production and rural poverty

• Probably greater connection between production and urban poverty and/or national food security goals-which may be in opposition to WP maximization

Trends in poverty and agricultural production, Karkheh

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1983 1993 2004

000

Ha

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Harvested AreaPoverty Incidence

Source: IWMI

• the use of non-agricultural water measures is likely to be a more effective solution to remaining rural poverty in the Karkheh basin and Iran.

• In the short to medium term, agricultural water policy should focus on improvements in physical water productivity so as to improve the use scarce water resources for given national food security priorities. Promising options include:

• In the longer term, shift towards economic water productivity by moving water away from lower productivity grain production and towards higher value agricultural and other activities including hydropower generation and urban uses.

Karkheh Recommendations

• A compromise between food production, environmental goals and equity is possible.

• Coupled with, for example, improved irrigation management, a further decline of water resources because of increased food demand is not inevitable.

High Priority CP Research

1. What makes basin results comparable or not?– Agro-ecosystem similarity? – Economic similarity?– Political similarity?

The answer may change for given basins over time. 2. What are the national and global water impacts of food self-sufficiency

policies, such as those caused by food embargo threats? – especially applicable to the arid and generally water scarce states of the Middle

East/North Africa.– Not unreasonable to hypothesize that water productivity gains from policy change in this

arena could be as large or larger than those possible through technical intervention.

3. Is there a general framework to determine when and where (both within and across countries/basins) water is a cost effective poverty alleviation tool?

4. How to better consider surface/groundwater interaction and implement effective groundwater policy?

5. How best to capture livestock, fisheries, forestry and possibly other agricultural systems? How to easily move from average to marginal water productivity calculations for use in decision making?

Related Publications• Mobin Ahmad et. al, 2009, Karkheh BasinFocal Project Report, Unpublished

• Marjanizadeh,Sarah. 2008. Developing a “Best Case Scenario” for Karkheh River Basin Management (2025 Horizon); a Case Study from Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Ph. D. dissertation, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences of Vienna (BOKU) (March 2008). 185p

• Marjanizadeh, S., Qureshi, A.S., Turral, H., Talebzadeh, P. 2009. From Mesopotamia to the thirdmillennium: the historical trajectory of water development and use in the Karkheh RiverBasin, Iran. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 51p. (IWMI Working Paper 135), Forthcoming

• Ahmad MD, Islam A, Masih I, Lal M, Karimi P, Turral H. 2008. Mapping basin level water productivity using remote sensing and secondary data In Karkheh river basin Iran. Paper presented at the 13th IWRA World Water Congress on Global Changes and Water Resources, "Confronting the expanding and diversifying pressures", Montpellier, France, 1-4 September 2008. 13p.

• 2008. Water productivity mapping to identify opportunities to improve agricultural water management in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.I. Keynotes; Cross-cutting topics. pp.119-122. ISBN 978-92-990053-0-9

• Masih I, Ahmad MD, Turral H, Uhlenbrook S, Karimi P. 2008. Understanding hydrologic variability for better surface water allocations in Karkheh Basin Iran. Paper presented at the 13th IWRA World Water Congress on Global Changes and Water Resources, "Confronting the expanding and diversifying pressures", Montpellier, France, 1-4 September 2008. 15p. Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Ahmad MD, Maskey S. 2008. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: a case study from Karkheh river basin, Iran. Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 10, EGU2008-A-00226, 2008 EGU General Assembly 2008. Poster presentation at EGU General Assembly meetings, Vienna, Austria, 13 – 18 April 2008.

Related Publications• Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Ahmad, MD, Maskey S. 2008. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity

of the flow duration curve: a case study from Karkheh river basin, Iran. Presentation at the Boussinesq Center Workshop on Hydrologic science for an ever changing world: search for new hydrologic concepts, theories, models and practices, held on June 23-25, 2008, at Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. Available online at: http://www.boussinesqcenter.nl/act_masterclass_newtheorie.htm

• Masih, I., M.D. Ahmad, S. Uhlenbrook, H. Turral, P. Karimi 2008. Overview of streamflow variability and water accounts for the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.III. Water benefits sharing for poverty alleviation and conflict management; Drivers and processes of change. pp.32-37. ISBN 978-92-990053-2-3

• Muthuwatta, L.P., M.D. Ahmad, M.G. Bos, T.H.M. Rientjes 2008. Estimating the spatial variability of water consumption in the karkeh river basin, Iran using MODIS data. In: ACRS 2008 : proceedings of the 29th Asian Conference on Remote Sensing, 10-14 November 2008, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Colombo : Survey Department of Sri Lanka, Asian Association on Remote sensing, 2008. 6p.

• Muthuwatta, L.P., M.D. Ahmad, M.G. Bos, T.H.M. Rientjes 2008. Surface energy balance modeling to track water consumption by heterogeneous land uses in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. In Humphreys, E.; Bayot, R. S.; van Brakel, M.; Gichuki, F.; Svendsen, M.; Wester, P.; Huber-Lee, A.; Cook, S. Douthwaite, B.; Hoanh, Chu Thai; Johnson, N.; Nguyen-Khoa, Sophie; Vidal, A.; MacIntyre, I.; MacIntyre, R. (Eds.). Fighting poverty through sustainable water use: proceedings of the CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food, 2nd International Forum on Water and Food, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 10-14 November 2008. Colombo, Sri Lanka: CGIAR Challenge Program on Water and Food. Vol.I. Keynotes; Cross-cutting topics. pp.101-104. ISBN 978-92-990053-0-9.

• Muthuwatta, L.P., M.J. Booiji, T.H.M. Rientjes, M.G. Bos, A.S.M. Gieske, M.D. Ahmad 2009. Calibration of a semi-distributed hydrological model using discharge and remote sensing data. In Yilmaz, K. K.; Yucel, I.; Gupta, H. V.; Wagener, T.; Yang, D.; Savenije, H.; Neale, C.; Kunstmann, H.; Pomeroy, J. (Eds.). New Approaches to Hydrological Prediction in Data Sparse Regions: proceedings of Symposium HS.2 at the Joint Convention of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH), Hyderabad, India, 6–12 September 2009. Wallingford, UK: International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). 7p. (IAHS Publication 333).

Related Publications• Masih I, Uhelnbrook S, Maskey S, Ahmad MD, A Islam. 2008. Estimating ungauged stream flows based on model

regionalization: Examples from the mountainous, semi-arid Karkheh river basin, Iran. In Brhuthans J.; Kovar, K.; Hrkal, Z. (Eds.). Key note paper for HydroPredict'2008 Conference on Predictions for Hydrology, Ecology, and Water Resources Management: Using Data and Models to Benefit Society 15-18 September 2008, Prague, Czech Republic. pp 7-10.

• Ahmad, M.D., A. Islam, L.P. Muthuwatta, P. Karimi, H. Turral 2009. Mapping basin level water productivity using remote sensing and secondary data in Karkheh river basin Iran. Special Issue: Water, food and livelihoods in river basins. Water International 34(1): 119-133.

• Assadzadeh, Ahmad. Submitted. Poverty in the Karkheh Basin, Iran. Agricultural Economics and Development, Scientific and Research Quarterly Journal of the Agricultural Planning and Economics Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.

• Gamage, M.S.D.N; Ahmad MD; Karimi P. 2007. Estimating cropped area and yield using time series of MODIS imagery based vegetation index in Gamasiab Sub-Basin of Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Sri Lankan Journal of Geo-Informatics, 4: 39-55.

• Masih I, Uhlenbrook S, Maskey S., Ahmad MD. forthcoming. Regionalization of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on similarity of the flow duration curve: A case study from the semi-arid Karkheh basin, Iran. Journal of Hydrology.

• Masih, I, M.D. Ahmad, H. Turral, S. Uhlenbrook, P. Karimi 2009. Analysing streamflow variability and water allocation for sustainable management of water resources in the Karkheh river basin, Iran. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 34:329-340.

• Masih, I., S. Uhlenbrook, S. Maskey, V. Smakhtin 2010. Streamflow trends and climate linkages in the Zagros mountains, Iran. Climatic Change. 22p. Published online: 16 Janurary 2010. DOI 10.1007/s10584-009-9793-x.

• Muthuwatta LP, Ahmad MD, Bos MG., Rientjes T.H.M. 2010. Assessment of water availability and consumption in the Karkheh river basin Iran using remote sensing and geo-statistic. Water Resources Management 24(3):459-484

Thanks

For more information visit:

www.iwmi.org

www.waterandfood.org

N.B. This is not a form of technical output. Data and figures shown are subject to change.

Key suggestions for new BFPs

• Do quick assessments/reports on key issues• Take an historic perspective to understand how things got to the

current state• Take a broad view of policy and its effects on agriculture and water

use• Make sure any water productivity estimates are inclusive, e.g.

livestock-maintain difference between average and marginal• Think simultaneously about water as a means for overall economic

growth, reducer of poverty in general, and reducer of poverty in the agricultural sector and the tradeoffs between the three

• Put another way, don’t force the water poverty issue but think about water as a means for additional poverty alleviation

• MAKE THE PROJECT A TEAM EFFORT WITH EACH PACKAGE LEADER IS INVOLVED IN EVERY WORK PACKAGE