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Kathy Booth
Gregory Stoup
Terrence Willett
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and OutcomesWhat Course-Taking Analysis Reveals
Student Success ConferenceOctober 2012
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Session Outcomes1. Understand what’s driving the focus on completion
(defined as degree, certificate or transfer)
2. Recognize how student course-taking behaviors relate to completion and success
3. Become familiar with one approach to gathering non-completion data
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
3
WHY THE FOCUS ON COMPLETION?
The perfect storm of accountability and budget cuts
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Factors Driving the Focus on CompletionIt’s a value-added world
Major initiatives by the feds and foundations
Legislative demands for return on investment
Community demands for more equitable outcomes
Lack of resources/systems to gather more nuanced measures
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Student Success Task Force Recommendations & ActAvoided performance-based funding (for now)
Placed an emphasis on completion through:
• Setting enrollment priorities around pathways that lead to degrees, certificates and transfer
• Prioritizing structures that encourage students onto a completion pathway (e.g., educational plans, programs of study, basic skills, and mandatory assessment)
• Creating a public scorecard that will bring completion to the forefront
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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The Budget Crisis
Pushing colleges to review data on what departments, programs and services to keep or cut
• Some are pre-emptively following the Task Force direction
• All colleges are getting public pressure to justify their resource allocation
• Existing data primarily focuses on measures like completion and retention—most colleges don’t have other success measures available
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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What Gets Lost in the Completion Discussion?Not all of our students are seeking completion
Our completion rates are not equitable
• If we have to do more with less and completion is the measure, will our more vulnerable students be forced out?
The journey to completion is a very long one
• We need to understand what happens along the way to figure out where to focus our resources
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Discussion
• Is your college more focused on completion as a result of the Task Force and the budget crisis?
• How is that affecting who gets priority at your college?
• How is it affecting the sections that you are offering ?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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HOW ELSE CAN WE UNDERSTAND SUCCESS?
What student course-taking behaviors can tell us
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Peter Bahr’s Cluster AnalysisTracked 165,921 first-time students who enrolled in at least one credit or noncredit community college course in fall 2001
Followed course-taking patterns over 7 years
Did NOT use factors such as students’ race/ ethnicity, status as a credit/noncredit student or stated goal
Enables you to develop student profiles—it is not effective as a planning tool
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Key DefinitionsCompletiono Associate’s degreeo Certificateo Transfer
First Time Studento Had not previously attended college o Were not co-enrolled in high school or a four-year
institutiono Accounted for 70% of students who entered system in
fall 2001 and attempted four-fifths of units in 2001-2002
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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The ClustersCompletion-Directed Pathwayso Completion Likely (2 subgroups)
o Completion Unlikely
o CTE
Non-Completion Pathwayso Skills-Builders
o Noncredit
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Completion-Likely Continuum
Students Most Likely to Complete o Enroll full time, stay about 6 years o Attempt an average of 123 credits in transferrable
courseso Pass 73% of courses and have high completion rates
(68%)
Students Somewhat Likely to Completeo Enroll full time, stay about 4 yearso Attempt 66 transferrable credits, but fewer math,
physical & life sciences o Pass 73% of courses but have low completion rates
(31%)
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Completion Directed
Completion Unlikelyo Enroll part time, attend intermittently, stay about 2 yrso Attempt 16 transferrable credits, with more CTEo Pass 26% of courses and have very low completion
rates (10%)
Career Technical Education Students o Enroll full time, stay about 5 yrso Attempt 82 units in commercial services, engineering
and industrial technologies, health fields and public and protective services
o Pass 80% of courses but have low completion rates (35%)
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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African American,Latino and Native
American students are
more likely to be in our
less-successful clusters
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Discussion
• Were you surprised that it takes so long for students to prepare for transfer or a degree, even when they enroll full-time? What have you seen on your own campus about time to completion?
• Given the high number of units attempted by transfer students, what impact could credit caps or a three-strikes policy have on this group?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Non-Completion PathwaysSkills-Builder Students o Take one course a year for two years, on averageo Attempt 7 credits in transferrable humanities and CTE,
especially engineering and industrial technologieso Pass 94% of courses but have very low completion rates
(9%)
Noncredit Students o Enroll in about three courses a year for five yearso Take ESL, short-term vocational programs, health and
safety education and programs for older adultso Course completion data missing
Leadig Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Comparison of Pass and Completion Rates Among Clusters
What’s Completion Got to Do with It? – April 2012
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Noncredit*
Skills-Builders
CTE
Completion Unlikely
Completion Somewhat Likely
Completion Most Likely
Pass Rate Completion Rate
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Statewide Averages-What’s Your Guess?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
Comple-tion-
Likely38%
Completion-Unlikely28%
CTE3%
Skills-Builder
30%
Noncredit1%
First-Time Student Types, Based on Head Count
Bahr found that averages varied by college
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What About Those Non-Completers?A preliminary analysis of wage data found wage increases for skills-builder students.
It also found that CTE students who did not complete a certificate or degree earned more money than CTE students who did complete.
There are pathways through our colleges that we aren’t documenting or measuring.
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Our current measures don’t capture job training and may erroneously treat a third of our students as failures
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Discussion
• How will changes that your college is making to enrollment or course-scheduling likely affect skills-builder and noncredit students?
• How could colleges measure and document the success of skill-builder students and CTE students?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Discussion
• What other conclusions do you draw from this study?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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FROM THE STATE TO THE LOCAL
Applying Bahr’s Findings to Cañada College
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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WHAT CAN I DO WITH THIS INFORMATION?
Making the connection for your college
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Implementing Your Own AnalysisDownload a guide on the findings and instructions to replicate this study at www.rpgroup.org
Access technical support from the RP Group on implementing the methodology
Follow our next steps
• Doing a detailed wage study (you can ask EDD for this too)
• Recruiting colleges to do an analysis of specific course pathways for the clusters for a statewide report (later fall 2012)
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Think, Pair, Share
Pair up with someone else and discuss the following questions:
• What would it take to implement the course-taking analysis at your own college?
• How could you share the results of your own study or the statewide analysis with others?
Leading Conversations about Student Goals and Outcomes | October 2012
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Find Out MoreThe RP Group Websitewww.rpgroup.org
Terrence Willett, Course-taking [email protected]
Kathy Booth, Statewide Success [email protected]