Preparing Our Children for Their

FutureKathy Hrabluk

Associate SuperintendentArizona Department of Education

The new reality…

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates that today’s learner will have 10-14 jobs . . .

By the age of 38.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor . . .

1 out of 4 workers today is working for a company they have been employed by for less than one year.

More than 1 out of 2 are working for a company they have worked for for less than five years.

The top 10 in-demand jobs in 2010 didn’t exist in 2004.

We are currently preparing students for jobs that don’t yet exist . . .

Using technologies that haven’t been invented . . .

In order to solve problems we don’t even know are problems yet.

Our new reality…

We are living in exponential times.

There are over 2.7 billion searches performed on Google each month.

To whom were these questions addressed B.G.?(Before Google)

The number of text messages sent and received every day exceeds the population of the planet.

There are about 540,000 words in the English language . . .

About 5 times as many as during Shakespeare’s time.

More than 3,000 new books are published . . .

Daily.

Our new reality…

It’s estimated that a week’s worth of New York Times . . .

Contains more information than a person was likely to come across in a lifetime in the 18th century.

It’s estimated that 1.5 exabytes (that’s 1.5 x 1018) of unique new information will be generated worldwide this year.

That’s estimated to be more than in the previous 5,000 years.

The amount of new technical information is doubling every 2 years.

That means for a student starting a four-year technical or college degree . . .

Half of what they learn in their first year of study will be outdated by their third year of study.

Our new reality…

47 million laptops were shipped worldwide last year.

The $100 laptop project is expecting to ship between 50 and 100 million laptops a year to children in underdeveloped countries.

Predictions are that by 2013 a supercomputer will be built that exceeds the computation capability of the Human Brain . . .

By 2023, a $1,000 computer will exceed the capabilities of the Human Brain . . .

First grader Abby will be just 19 years old and beginning her post secondary experience. . .

And while technical predictions farther out than about 15 years are hard to do . . .

Predictions are that by 2049 a $1,000 computer will exceed the computational capabilities of the human race.

What does it all mean?

Shift Happens.

Whether we’re ready or not.

Agrarian Age Schools (19th century)◦ One room multi-age◦ Curriculum dominated by memorizing◦ Little writing or computation◦ Attendance optional

Industrial Age Schools (20th century)◦ Increased uniformity in school programs◦ “Academic” and “terminal” tracks◦ Carnegie units applied rigid structure of time◦ Standardized tests

Selection system for “thinkers” and “doers” worked◦ Delivered workforce society needed in the proper

proportions

How did we get here?

Workforce needs are reversed

Extremely competitive global economy

Employees required to acquire and interpret information, add value, innovate

Low-skill/high wage jobs are gone

A complete education is now a basic requirement for success

The bar has been raised from universal attendance to universal student achievement

J Vollmer

Where are we today?

Knowledge Age Schools (21st century)◦ Information, media and technology skills

Information literacy Media literacy IT literacy

◦ Learning and innovation skills Critical thinking and problem solving Creativity and innovation Communication and collaboration

◦ Learning is the constant, time is the variable

New Phase of Education

"... employers are seeking workers who are prepared to acquire new skills quickly. To be successful today workers must be able to work with less supervision but be able to identify sophisticated problems and make crucial decisions. Employers seek employees skilled in problem solving, listening, negotiating, and knowing how to learn.“

Jerry Yaffe; Public Personnel Management, Vol. 21

What has changed?

In the last 30 years manufacturing , logging and mining have decreased from almost 40% of the workforce to 12%.

Over 4.4 million jobs requiring only basic literacy skills are gone

21st century jobs will require information processing skills

Fundamental shift from production to information management

Information and technology skills identified as 2 essential competencies for employment

Trends in Workforce

WHY the urgency?

WHAT are we doing about it?

HOW will we move forward?

Critical Questions and Conversations

“Adolescents entering the adult world of the 21st century will read and write more than at any other time in human history. They will need advanced levels of literacy to perform their jobs, run their households, act as citizens and conduct their personal lives.”

Richard Vacca

Literacy Counts

25 fastest growing professions have far greater than average literacy demands

25 fastest declining professions have lower than average literacy demands

Approximately 70% of new jobs will require post secondary education

Approximately 90% of the fastest-growing jobs require at least 2 years of post secondary education

Rising Literacy Demands

Essential Big 6 Skills for the 21st Century

1. Task definition• Define and identify information needed

2. Information seeking strategies• Determine range and evaluate different possible sources

3. Location and access• Locate and find information within sources

4. Use of information• engage and extract important information

5. Synthesis• Organize and present information

6. Evaluation• Judge the effectiveness and efficiency of the problem solving

process

Contemporary Literacy

4X 88% 89%Students who cannot read by the end of the 3rd grade are four times more likely to drop out of high school

Eighty-eight percent of students who failed to earn a high school diploma were struggling readers in 3rd grade

Eighty-nine percent of low-income students who achieved proficient reading skills by the 3rd grade graduated.

Reading By 3rd Grade Matters

50

Children who fall behind in 1st grade have a 1:8 chance of ever catching up to grade level, without extraordinary and time consuming intervention efforts

74% of children who are poor readers in 3rd grade remain poor readers in 9th grade

Academic success, as defined by high school graduation, can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by a 3rd grader’s reading skills. An unskilled reader is unlikely to graduate high school.

The Education Commission of the States (2001)

When our children struggle…

“The link between academic failure and delinquency, violence and crime is welded to reading failure.”

U.S. Department of Justice

Arizona 2003 IES study Approximately 500,000 adults (16 years old +) do

not have basic literacy skills

Nationally 3 of 4 welfare receipts are illiterate 70% of prison inmates cannot read beyond a 4th

grade level $73 billion in unnecessary medical expenses every

year due to poor reading skills

Impact of Illiteracy

Pathways to the American DreamBrookings Institute, Pew’s Economic Mobility Project, Opportunity Nation (2011)

Early Childhood 0-5 years◦ Prereading and math skills◦ School appropriate behavior◦ No major health problems

Middle Childhood 5-12 years◦ Basic reading and math skills◦ Self-regulated behavior

Adolescence 12-19 years◦ High school diploma with GPA above 2.5◦ Not convicted of a crime◦ No teenage pregnancy

Transition to Adulthood 19-29 years◦ Post secondary degree or equivalent

85% chance of being a member of the middle class if benchmarks achieved

33% chance of being a member of the middle class if benchmarks not reached

54

Necessary Focus on Literacy instruction

Tina Pelletier, 2010

10-15

Elementary grades 3-8 Reading results (2011 AIMS)◦ All students – 488,882

77% passed – 376,439 students 23% failed - 112,442 students

In our K-12 Public School System…

Grade Passed Failed

3rd 75% 25%

4th 76% 24%

5th 78% 22%

6th 81% 19%

7th 81% 19%

8th 71% 29%

High School Reading results (2011 AIMS)◦ All students – 96,619

In our K-12 Public School System…

Cohort Passed Failed

2013 (10 graders)

78% 22% (16,707 students)

2012 (11 graders)

48% 52% (7,286 students)

2011 (12 graders)

29% 71% (3,600 students)

WHY the urgency?

WHAT are we doing about it?

HOW will we move forward?

Critical Questions and Conversations

The Common Core State Standards Initiative

To date, forty-seven states and the District of Columbia have adopted the Common Core State Standards (CCSS),

a consistent set of English language arts (ELA) and mathematics expectations that are designed to prepare students for college and career options

States have committed to implement the new standards by the 2014-15 school year

This is an aggressive timeline that will require a strategy that draws on state policymakers, district and school officials, and classroom teachers to ensure a successful and efficient implementation and transition

58

Why Common Core State Standards?

59

Preparation: college-and career-ready

Competition: internationally benchmarked

Equity: consistent for all

Clarity: focused, coherent, and clear

Collaboration: across states and districts, pooling resources and expertise

College and career readiness is the acquisition of the knowledge and skills a student needs to enroll and succeed in credit-bearing, first year courses at a postsecondary institution (such as a two or four year college, trade school, or technical school) without the need for remediation.

-- ACT definition, adopted by Common Core

What is College and Career Readiness?

Focus on results

Integrated model of literacy

Research and media skills blended into standards

Shared responsibility for students’ literacy development

Focus on college and career readiness

Key Design Considerations of the 2010 ELA Document…

1. K-5 – requires 50% informational text2. 6-12 – literacy in social studies, science

and technology3. Text complexity matters4. Text dependent questions5. Writing – argument with evidence6. Academic vocabulary that pervades

academic text Read like a detective Write like an investigative reporter

Shift in ELA Standards

College and CareerReadiness Anchor Standards

K-5 English Language Arts (includes Social Studies, Science

and Technical Text)

6, 7, 8, 9-10, 11-12

ELAContent

6-8, 9-10, 11-12Literacy in

History/Social Studies, Science, and

Technical Subjects

2010 ELA Document Organization

Appendices A, B, and C

WHY the urgency?

WHAT are we doing about it?

HOW will we move forward?

Critical Questions and Conversations

Food for thought…

“Everything’s changed except the way we think”

Albert Einstein

Fixed ideas often create a grand illusion of safety and permanence in an ever-changing and challenging world.

50 % RIGOROUS CONSISTENCY

50 % WILLINGNESS TO CHANGE

T Woods

The Path to Excellence is…

Put order in a complex world

Use respectful stewardship to guide

the work

Strive for Balance amidst Change

We are better when

we talk with each otherMargaret Wheatley

Count on Collective Wisdom

Operational decisions begin with sound research findings

Teaching operates in a local condition

Evidence based best practices are to be used wisely

Includes incorporating a teacher’s discretionary intelligence

SBRR informs judgment and provides a solid foundation for responsive, sound decisions

Ownership is essential

Anchor the Work in Evidence

A Gigantic Distinction Learning is the fundamental business of a

school. Teaching is the process to accomplish our

mission.

Therefore the 3 driving questions are:

1. What do students need to learn?2. How will we know they have learned the necessary

knowledge and skills?3. How will we respond when students experience

difficulty?

Recognize and support the significance of teaching

and if needed

Rescue the significance of teaching

The Main Thing IS the Main Thing

73

Leadership in Action

There is frequently a chasm between what we know to be the best action and what we

do. The connecting tissue is often the courage to act.

Effective leaders act with heart. In the final analysis, their decisions are informed by judgment, but emanate from their core

purpose, values, and intention. They act with a Courageous Leadership Imperative.

A. M. Blankstein

When we teach a child to read, we teach a child to think, to reflect, to engage with the world.

World change starts with educated children.

A sound education for all our children is the single most important thing we have to get right.

Our Responsibility and Our Legacy