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Kazakhstan Credit Research

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  • Equity ResearchBasic Industries | European Mining

    14 October 2013

    Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.

    Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

    This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.

    PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 13.

    Kazakhmys

    More risks than rewards We retain our UW rating on Kazakhmys and cut our price target to 192p, based on a 25% discount to what we believe is a reasonable scenario 50kt of high cost copper production cut from mid-2014, lower cash costs and perfect delivery of the growth projects. We believe a 25% discount is appropriate to underwrite the risks of delivery combined with extreme prospective gearing levels (e.g. -107% FCF yield in 2014, 9x ND/EBITDA) and minimal near-term valuation support.

    Tough times call for tough decisions: Kazakhmys is reviewing options for restructuring the core copper business to stem cash outflows in the current price environment. The Zhezkazgan hub is likely to be the focus based on management action taken to date: it sits at the 97th percentile of the cost curve, producing 48% of KAZs copper output but carrying 60% of the 56k headcount and 66% of copper division maintenance capex.

    Various scenarios for restructuring: If management can close or transfer out of the group 100kt of the highest cost mine capacity within Zhezkazgan, we calculate it would deliver a 22% reduction in cash costs post-by products, and leave the stock on 0.65x P/NPV. However, the odds of that being achieved appear slim given the affected assets within Zhezkazgan hold c.50% of the employee base. A base case scenario would be closing 50kt of capacity (similar to 2009, -55kt YoY), which we estimate would deliver a 9% cost saving and result in P/NPV of 0.97x.

    Priced for perfection: at 0.97x P/NPV the share price implies the company successfully cuts 50kt of production from mid-2014 and delivers its two growth projects on time and budget. However, with risks to both of these outcomes and gearing on the cusp of rising dramatically, we believe a material discount is warranted. Meanwhile 2014 earnings metrics (negative), FCF yields (heavily negative), dividend yield (zero) and EV/EBITDA multiples (in line with Antofagasta) are broadly unsupportive.

    Risks to Thesis: Material upside to the copper price (we assume $2.90/lb in 2014), the successful sale of the Ekibastuz power business to the government (required to keep gearing under control), delivering better than expected restructuring (i.e. >50kt) and successful execution on the growth projects are the main upside risks. EPS upgrades to 2013 reflect reduced cost guidance at H1 results; downgrades to 2014-15E reflect the sale of the ENRC which is now excluded from our model.

    KAZ.L: Financial and Valuation Metrics USD

    FY Dec 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

    EPS 2.92A 1.22A 0.33E -0.06E 0.75E

    Previous EPS 2.92A 1.22A 0.26E -0.02E 0.87E

    Consensus EPS 2.76A 0.85A 0.21E 0.35E 0.67E

    P/E 1.4 3.3 12.4 N/A 5.4

    Source: Barclays Research. Consensus numbers are from Thomson Reuters

    Stock Rating UNDERWEIGHTUnchanged

    Industry View NEGATIVEUnchanged

    Price Target GBp 192.0lowered -18% from GBp 235.0

    Price (10-Oct-2013) GBp 255.0Potential Upside/Downside -25%Tickers KAZ LN / KAZ.L

    Market Cap (GBP mn) 1333Shares Outstanding (mn) 523.72Free Float (%) 50.4752 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.7Dividend Yield (%) 2.8Return on Equity TTM (%) -36.62Current BVPS (USD) 9.83Source: FactSet Fundamentals

    Price Performance Exchange-LSE52 Week range GBP 8.40-2.28

    Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

    European Mining Amos Fletcher +44 (0)20 7773 2225 [email protected] Barclays, London

    David Butler +44 (0)20 3134 5756 [email protected] Barclays, London

    Ian Rossouw +44 (0)20 3555 2620 [email protected] Barclays, London

    Lourina Pretorius +44 (0)20 3555 4423 [email protected] Barclays, London

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 2

    European Mining Industry View: NEGATIVE

    Kazakhmys PLC (KAZ.L) Stock Rating: UNDERWEIGHT

    Income statement ($mn) 2012A 2013E 2014E 2015E CAGR Price (10-Oct-2013) GBp 255.0Price Target GBp 192.0Why Underweight? Kazakhmys' production profile is flat at best until 2015, FCF will be negative throughout that time and balance sheet gearing will increase. Meanwhile cost inflation in Kazakhstan is above industry average and the prospects of a large capital return from ENRC sell-down appears remote.

    Upside case GBp 266.9The upside case for KAZ is driven by commodity prices with copper the most important by far. Assuming a 20% higher copper price curve and taking a 10x FY2 PE multiple (the average for the last 4yrs is 7.5) delivers the upside case.

    Downside case GBp 117.1Conversely assuming a 20% lower copper price curve and applying a 10x FY2 PE multiple (the average for the last 4yrs is 7.5) delivers the downside case.

    Upside/Downside scenarios

    POINT Quantitative Equity Scores

    Source: POINT. The scores are valid as of the date of this report and are independent of the fundamental analysts' views. To view the latest scores, click here.

    Revenue 5,287 3,983 3,151 4,002 -8.9%EBITDA 1,364 739 626 1,217 -3.7%EBIT 1,054 425 304 864 -6.4%Pre-tax income -2,117 -980 -26 437 N/ANet income -2,272 -969 -27 336 N/AEPS (adj) ($) 1.22 0.33 -0.06 0.75 -15.0%Diluted shares (mn) 524 524 447 447 -5.2%DPS ($) 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.07 -13.9%

    Margin and return data AverageEBITDA margin (%) 25.8 18.5 19.9 30.4 23.7EBIT margin (%) 19.9 10.7 9.7 21.6 15.5Pre-tax margin (%) -40.0 -24.6 -0.8 10.9 -13.6Net margin (%) -43.0 -24.3 -0.9 8.4 -14.9ROIC (%) 15.4 5.6 0.9 6.6 7.1ROA (%) 7.4 4.6 2.8 6.5 5.3ROE (%) 7.3 2.7 -0.6 7.7 4.3

    Balance sheet and cash flow ($mn) CAGRTangible fixed assets 3,062 3,625 5,257 6,196 26.5%Intangible fixed assets 64 64 64 64 0.0%Cash and equivalents 1,761 1,761 1,761 1,761 0.0%Total assets 9,835 8,416 10,177 11,575 5.6%Short and long-term debt 2,798 3,388 5,289 6,311 31.1%Other long-term liabilities 2,540 3,130 5,031 6,053 33.6%Total liabilities 3,570 4,052 5,840 6,902 24.6%Net debt/(funds) 1,037 1,627 3,528 4,550 63.7%Shareholders' equity 6,259 4,362 4,335 4,671 -9.3%Change in working capital 70 52 43 -28 N/ACash flow from operations 918 334 165 528 -16.8%Capital expenditure -1,195 -1,779 -1,953 -1,292 N/AFree cash flow -402 -1,450 -1,902 -1,021 N/A

    Valuation and leverage metrics AverageP/E (adj) (x) 3.3 12.4 N/A 5.4 7.0EV/EBITDA (x) 3.6 7.5 11.9 6.9 7.5FCF yield (%) -18.8 -68.0 -104.7 -56.2 -61.9P/Sales (x) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5P/BV (x) 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4Dividend yield (%) 2.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.1Net debt/capital (%) -11.4 -21.0 -36.6 -41.4 -27.6

    Selected operating metrics (k) CAGRProduction volumes (in kt) Copper production 294.4 291.7 285.2 304.0 1.1%Molybdenum 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 N/AZinc production 151.7 125.0 120.1 115.4 -8.7%Production volumes (in koz) Gold 129.1 100.8 116.4 176.2 10.9%Silver 12,630.0 12,000.0 12,287.3 11,800.7 -2.2%Cost (in $/lb) Cu C1 cash costs 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.3 9.1%

    Source: Company data, Barclays Research Note: FY End Dec

    Value

    Quality

    Sentiment

    Low High

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 3

    Difficult times call for difficult measures Kazakhmys management discussed at the interim results it is reviewing options for restructuring the core copper business. This is driven by an increasingly urgent need to stem the business negative FCF position based on the companys cost guidance for 2013. Since we initiated on Kazakhmys we have clearly flagged that in forming a valuation for the company we needed to assume an arbitrary 25% reduction in cash costs for the core copper business in 2016 and a halving of the maintenance capex spend, otherwise the NPV of the business is negative. Kazakhmys has reduced costs by that sort of scale in the past: in 2009 they were reduced 17% (39% post by-products) during the financial crisis while production fell by 55kt YoY. We think a similar sense of urgency needs to be brought to bear on the cost base now.

    If management can close or transfer out of the group 100kt of the highest cost mine capacity within Zhezkazgan a best case scenario in our view we estimate that would deliver a 22% reduction in cash costs post-by products and a $230m sustaining capex saving. In turn we estimate it would leave the company trading on 0.65x P/NPV. However, we believe the likelihood of that being achieved is slim given the social impact (the affected assets within Zhezkazgan account for c.50% of the employee base we estimate). A base case scenario could be closing 50kt of capacity (similar to 2009), which we estimate would deliver a 9% cost saving and result in P/NPV of 0.97x.

    FIGURE 1 NPV under various production cut scenarios (GBp/sh)

    FIGURE 2 2014 EPS under various production cut scenarios ($/sh)

    Source: Barclays Source: Barclays

    0

    50

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    350

    400

    450

    100kt cut 50kt cut No cut

    NPV (GBp/sh)

    0.19

    0.04

    -0.06-0.10

    -0.05

    0.00

    0.05

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    0.15

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    100kt cut 50kt cut No cut

    2014 EPS $

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 4

    Restructuring the core business what are the options?

    Focus on reducing unprofitable production We show below Wood Mackenzies assessment of the cost position of Kazakhmys regional hubs. Zhezkazgan is the highest cost hub sitting at the 97th percentile of the cost curve with a C1 unit cost of $3.22/lb implying it is EBITDA breakeven at the current copper price. This reflects the relatively low grades of the mines in this region as well as employee costs which are significantly higher than Kazakhmys other regional hubs largely for historical reasons. Zhezkazgan in total accounts for 48% of total copper output, but carries 60% of copper division headcount (56,000) and 66% of division maintenance capex.

    FIGURE 3 Kazakhmys cost position by region (2013E)

    Mine Production (2013E, kt) Percentile

    Cash Cost (C1)(c/lb)

    Sustaining Capex (c/lb)

    All-in cost

    (c/lb)

    East Mines 85 36% 127.0 14.4 141.3

    Balkhash 40 76% 191.1 115.7 306.8

    Karaganda 27 89% 235.0 63.5 298.5

    Zhezkazgan 141 97% 322.0 104.3 426.3Source: Wood Mackenzie, Barclays.

    Zhezkazgan restructuring already under way Kazakhmys began restructuring the Zhezkazgan hub in H1, suspending Satpayev concentrator (23.5kt of copper in concentrate produced in 2012) followed by Zhezkazgan smelter in August (111kt cathode produced in 2012). This will contribute towards cost savings of c.$80m annualised from H2-13 onwards, as discussed by management at the H1 results. As a result Kazakhmys will be long copper concentrate which is likely to be sold to Kazzinc and Chinese smelters. However, we understand the company is still carrying the cost of c.2500 people employed at these assets. Achieving full closure of the plants and removing associated headcount would have a more material impact on costs and maintenance capex, given the age of the facilities plus associated power infrastructure which would no longer be required.

    Best case scenario: closing 100kt of lossmaking capacity at Zhezkazgan Within the Zhezkazgan region, we believe the high grade Zhomart mine (1.35% Cu head grade plus 9g/t silver) is lower cost than the other mines and therefore could continue production. If Kazakhmys closed down all Zhezkazgans production apart from Zhomart we estimate metal in concentrate production would fall by 100kt. The key issue is whether the company would be able to close mines given the social impact of redundancies. This will come down to a negotiation with the government hence we expect any final decisions on further restructuring to take time. Assuming the split of headcount is equal to the split of ore production, we estimate Zhezkazgan ex-Zhomart accounts for ~50% of the copper business headcount i.e. ~28,000 people.

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 5

    FIGURE 4 Reserve grades of individual mines within Zhezkazgan region (% Cu proved & probable)

    Source: Company

    While closing down EBITDA neutral operations would not have a material impact on profits in absolute terms (other than lower D&A after writedowns), the impact on cashflow through reduced maintenance capex is much more significant. Based on Wood Mackenzie data, Zhezkazgan region maintenance capex is estimated at $324m in 2013E or 66% of the total, despite producing only 48% of total copper output. Overall maintenance capex within the core copper business has been running at 3x depreciation in 2011-12, which is unsustainable in our view.

    FIGURE 5 Copper division 2013E maintenance capex split by region

    FIGURE 6 Maintenance capex to depreciation is very high

    Source: Wood Mackenzie, Barclays Source: Barclays, Company data

    Various scenarios for costs and production in 2014 Given the various options for optimisation under consideration, there is a large degree of uncertainty both at the corporate level and in the market over Kazakhmys likely production and unit cost levels next year. We show a variety of scenarios below split between a best case (100kt of production cut), base case (50kt cut) and no cuts. In a best case outcome of 100kt of production cuts from Zhezkazgan assuming a cash cost of $3.50/lb for the closed mines and $230m capex saving proforma from H2 2014 onwards, P/NPV would be 0.65x. In addition that assumes no costs of implementation and a 10% WACC.

    0.54 0.54 0.560.62 0.64 0.68

    1.35

    0.0

    0.2

    0.4

    0.6

    0.8

    1.0

    1.2

    1.4

    1.6

    North West East Stepnoy South Annensky Zhomart

    Copper reserve grades (%)

    Zhezkazgan66%

    Balkhash21%

    Karaganda8%

    East Mines5%

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    2005 2007 2009 2011 2013E 2015ECopper division capex ($M) Capex/depreciation

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 6

    FIGURE 7 Best case outcome for 2014E production and costs

    Copper production

    (kt)Cash cost post by-

    product (c/lb )

    COGS

    ( $m)

    2013E 292 245 1577

    Capacity reduction 100 350 772

    2014E 192 190 806

    2014 Group EBITDA resulting $m 731

    Sustaining capex saving $m 230

    P/NPV resulting x 0.65x

    2014 EPS resulting $/sh $0.19 Source: Barclays

    A base case is shown below assuming a 50kt production cut which in turn delivers an estimated $115m capex saving and resulting P/NPV multiple of 0.97x.

    FIGURE 8 Base case outcome for 2014E production and costs

    kt c/lb COGS $m

    2013E 292 245 1577

    Capacity reduction 50 350 386

    2014E 242 230 1191

    2014 Group EBITDA resulting $m 656

    Sustaining capex saving $m 115

    P/NPV resulting x 0.97x

    2014 EPS resulting $/sh $0.04 Source: Barclays

    MET changes unlikely An additional option for Kazakhmys to cut its cost base could include renegotiating the MET regime with the government, either to suspend MET payments altogether or change the formula to profit-based rather than the current revenue-based measure. However, we view this as unlikely as the government would potentially need to extend similar concessions to other mining companies in the country.

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 7

    Project execution another key issue for the balance sheet While the core business is in need of urgent attention, the company is also building two significant growth projects in Bozshakol and Aktogay. While both projects are proceeding to budget and timeline currently, the scale of the projects is significant in operational terms (effectively doubling the earthmoving capacity of the business) and financial terms (the remaining capex to be spent is 158% of market capitalisation). Given the companys limited experience of major greenfield project development we remain wary around the risks of delays and potential capital cost increases to these projects. Delays in particular could have follow-on implications as the company has to start repaying capital as well as interest on its debt facilities from 2015 onwards see chart.

    FIGURE 9 Interest payments set to step up from 2015 onwards ($m)

    FIGURE 10 At a point when the balance sheet is already stretched

    Source: Company Source: Company. Note covenant is 3.5x for the $1bn PXF facility. The Bozshakol and Aktogay facilities have undisclosed balance sheet covenants attached.

    The risk of delay is greater than that of a major cost overrun in our view. There is limited scope for overrun in contract arrangements other than the cost of the owners team, with prices fixed for most key elements. While we expect management to have been conservative on timelines given to the market, the scale of the project and to some extent the influence of the weather in Kazakhstan presents the main risks in our view.

    107 107

    197 227 227229

    66120 120

    0

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    2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Avg to 2025

    Bozshakol $2.7bn facility Aktogay $1.5bn facility

    169

    1037

    1627

    3528

    4550 4612

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    2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016ENet debt ($m) ND/EBITDA (covenant basis)

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 8

    Valuation pricing in a reasonable outcome, but no discount for risks We show below the NPV under the various scenarios outlined. It highlights the extent of the potential downside risk to the share price in the event the company does nothing. It also suggests the market is pricing in what we view to be the most likely outcome i.e. a 50kt cut to production and perfect execution on the growth projects. However, we believe any investment in Kazakhmys at this point requires a material discount to NPV to underwrite the risks presented by the prospective balance sheet gearing and execution risk. We set our revised price target of 192p based on a 25% discount to the 50kt cut scenario.

    FIGURE 11 NPV under various scenarios of production cuts (GBp/sh)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    350

    400

    450

    100kt cut 50kt cut No cut

    NPV (GBp/sh) Current share price

    Source: Barclays.

    Looking at conventional earnings and FCF-based multiples, Kazakhmys is trading close to parity on EV/EBITDA with Antofagasta in 2014E which combined with heavily negative FCF yields in 2013-15E is not particularly attractive to us. As noted above we would ideally like to see a significant discount to NPV and peer multiples in the near-term to account for the various risks.

    FIGURE 12 Copper pure plays valuation comparatives

    Source: Barclays, Bloomberg. Priced as of 10 October.

    Bid dynamics not a big upside risk Kazakhmys is one of the most heavily shorted mining stocks with 60m shares on loan across the market, a mixture of directional and merger arbitrage shorts, representing ~31% of the free float. The merger arbitrage funds will close on or around the 10 November when the cash and share proceeds from the ENRC consortium offer are likely to be received. The total Kazakhmys shares to be issued to the Kazakhmys minority holders is 62m which almost exactly matches the outstanding short position and as a result there is unlikely to be significant short-covering upon closure of the deal, in our view.

    Company Price Rec M.Cap NPV P/NPV PT Upside($m) 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2013E 2014E 2015E (/sh) (x) (/sh) (%)

    Antofagasta 8.54 EW 13,412 13.8 18.0 12.7 7.8 9.6 7.1 3.6 4.8 11.3 2.5 1.9 2.8 7.61 1.12 9.00 5%Kazakhmys 2.55 UW 2,129 12.4 (66.1) 5.4 7.5 11.9 6.9 (68.0) (104.7) (56.2) - - 1.7 1.81 1.41 1.92 -25%First Quantum 11.14 EW 10,492 20.7 24.9 10.4 10.1 11.1 6.5 (15.9) (11.7) (2.6) 0.7 0.6 1.4 12.50 0.89 11.25 1%Average 15.6 (7.7) 9.5 8.4 10.9 6.8 (26.8) (37.2) (15.8) 1.1 0.8 2.0 1.14 -6%

    P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FCF Yield (%) Div Yield (%)

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 9

    Financials and key assumptions

    FIGURE 13 P&L ($M)

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

    Mining 2404 3237 3548 3362 2882 2531 3225 3772

    Power 238 261 426 459 506 620 777 777

    MKM 1038 2098 1665 1466 595 0 0 0

    Total revenue 3680 5596 5639 5287 3983 3151 4002 4548

    Mining 1027 1715 1808 1160 529 334 841 1170

    Power 120 144 176 208 239 315 420 420

    MKM 76 81 26 48 -2 0 0 0

    Petroleum/gold 23 28 -1 0 0 0 0 0

    Corporate -35 -36 -50 -52 -27 -23 -44 -56

    EBITDA (ex-ENRC) 1211 1932 1959 1364 739 626 1217 1534

    Margin 33% 35% 35% 26% 19% 20% 30% 34%

    D&A -287 -268 -264 -310 -314 -322 -353 -421

    EBIT 924 1664 1695 1054 425 304 864 1113

    Net income from share of ENRC 223 522 466 127 89 0 0 0

    Interest & tax in power JV 0 -28 -26 -29 -30 -30 -30 -30

    Impairments & exceptionals -344 -181 -628 -2913 -1141 0 0 0

    MET charge -164 -236 -280 -260 -218 -188 -240 -286

    Operating profit 639 1741 1227 -2021 -875 86 594 797

    Net interest 169 -76 -79 -96 -105 -113 -156 -173

    PBT 808 1665 1148 -2117 -980 -26 437 624

    Tax -255 -215 -218 -154 11 -1 -102 -155

    Rate ex-MET 25% 15% 15% 19% -6% 23% 23% 23%

    PAT 553 1450 930 -2271 -969 -27 336 469

    Minority interests 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0

    Net income - reported 554 1450 930 -2272 -969 -27 336 469

    Net income - underlying 898 1631 1558 641 172 -27 336 469

    Fully diluted shares outstanding (m) 535.1 534.8 533.8 524.5 523.7 446.7 446.7 446.7

    EPS - headline $ 1.04 2.71 1.74 -4.33 -1.85 -0.06 0.75 1.05

    EPS - underlying $ 1.68 3.05 2.92 1.22 0.33 -0.06 0.75 1.05

    DPS $ 0.00 0.22 0.28 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.17 Source: Barclays, Company

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 10

    FIGURE 14 Cashflow statement ($m)

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

    EBITDA ex-associates, post MET 851 1471 1477 848 282 123 556 828

    Change in inventories -133 -145 -67 -40 130 137 -50 -44

    Change in debtors -89 -107 -77 52 30 19 -20 -13

    Change in creditors 46 107 78 171 -108 -114 41 36

    Change in provisions/other 4 102 236 -113 0 0 0 0

    Cashflow from Operations 679 1428 1647 918 334 165 528 808

    Interest paid (net) -53 -40 -57 -70 -105 -113 -156 -173

    Dividends from associate (ENRC/Power) 84 62 113 87 0 0 0 0

    Income tax paid (ex-MET) -144 -365 -341 -142 100 -1 -102 -155

    Net cash from operating activities 566 1085 1362 793 329 52 270 480

    Capex (net) -426 -720 -706 -1195 -1779 -1953 -1292 -479

    Free cash flow 140 365 656 -402 -1450 -1902 -1021 1

    Acquisitions/disposals 463 -107 102 -14 902 0 0 0

    Equity dividends paid 0 -80 -129 -121 -42 0 0 -63

    Purchases/issuance of own shares -7 -4 -83 -88 0 0 0 0

    Movement in liquid investments/debt -396 -15 -457 851 0 0 0 0

    FX/other -59 -1 5 -1 0 0 0 0

    Net cash movement in cash 141 158 94 225 -590 -1902 -1021 -62 Source: Barclays, Company

    FIGURE 15 Key assumptions

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

    Copper - LME ($/lb) 2.34 3.40 4.01 3.61 3.30 2.90 3.40 3.00

    Realised price ($/lb) 2.28 3.41 3.97 3.66 3.28 2.90 3.40 3.00

    Premium/(discount) to LME -3% 0% -1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

    Moly ($/lb) 11.1 14.7 16.4 12.8 10.3 12.0 12.0 12.0

    Gold ($/oz) 973 1219 1570 1669 1418 1400 1400 1400

    Silver ($/oz) 14.63 19.81 35.25 31.19 22.77 20.00 20.00 20.00

    Zinc ($/lb) 0.75 0.98 1.00 0.89 0.86 0.92 1.00 0.95

    KZT/USD 148 147 147 149 152 153 153 153

    Total copper production (kt) 326 306 301 294 292 285 324 428 Source: Barclays, Company

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 11

    FIGURE 16 Balance sheet ($M)

    2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E

    Intangible Assets 510 509 53 64 64 64 64 64

    PP&E 2022 2470 2793 3062 3625 5257 6196 6254

    Investment in Associates 3869 5098 5438 2954 1225 1510 1900 2291

    Other non-current investments 7 9 10 532 532 532 532 532

    Deferred Tax Asset 0 9 61 87 87 87 87 87

    Total Fixed Assets 6408 8095 8355 6699 5533 7450 8779 9227

    Inventories 500 585 744 750 620 483 532 576

    Prepayments & other current assets 325 155 227 380 380 380 380 380

    Current Tax Assets 4 45 71 30 30 30 30 30

    Receivables 150 264 190 122 92 73 92 105

    Current Asset Investment 58 356 810 515 515 515 515 515

    Cash and Equivalents 903 1113 1102 1246 1246 1246 1246 1246

    Assets held for sale (net) 1155 82 78 93 0 0 0 0

    Total Current Assets 3095 2600 3222 3136 2883 2727 2796 2852

    Total Assets 9503 10695 11577 9835 8416 10177 11575 12079

    Trade and Other Payables 935 403 498 622 514 400 442 478

    Short term borrowings 518 519 525 29 29 29 29 29

    Taxes payable 60 33 7 1 1 1 1 1

    Dividend payable 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0

    Provisions 17 35 66 48 48 48 48 48

    Total Current Liabilities 1532 992 1097 700 592 478 520 556

    Long term debt 1132 1300 1368 2439 3029 4930 5952 6014

    Deferred tax liabilities 99 16 6 1 1 1 1 1

    Post employment benefits 50 58 188 330 330 330 330 330

    Long term provisions 95 110 86 100 100 100 100 100

    Long term liabilities 1376 1484 1648 2870 3460 5361 6383 6445

    Ordinary Share Capital 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200

    Share Premium 2648 2648 2650 2650 2650 2650 2650 2650

    Reserves -994 -739 -840 -932 -932 -932 -932 -932

    Retained Earnings 4728 6097 6815 4341 2444 2417 2753 3158

    Total Shareholders equity 6582 8206 8825 6259 4362 4335 4671 5076

    Minority Interest 13 13 7 6 6 6 6 6

    Total Liabilities and Equity 9503 10695 11577 9835 8420 10181 11579 12083

    check 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -4 -4

    Net Debt/(Cash) 739 408 169 1037 1627 3528 4550 4612

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 12

    ND/total capital 10% 5% 2% 14% 27% 45% 49% 48%

    ROIC 11.8% 32.7% 31.6% 15.4% 5.6% 0.9% 6.6% 8.2%

    ROE 12.8% 22.1% 18.3% 8.5% 3.2% -0.6% 7.5% 9.6% Source: Barclays, Company

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 13

    ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION(S):

    We, Amos Fletcher, Ian Rossouw and Lourina Pretorius, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

    The POINT Quantitative Equity Scores (POINT Scores) referenced herein are produced by the firms POINT quantitative model and Barclays hereby certifies that (1) the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the firm's POINT Scores model and (2) no part of the firm's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    Barclays Research is a part of the Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). For current important disclosures regarding companies that are the subject of this research report, please send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10019 or refer to http://publicresearch.barclays.com or call 212-526-1072.

    The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities.

    Research analysts employed outside the US by affiliates of Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of the member firm and therefore may not be subject to NASD Rule 2711 and incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analysts account.

    Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from acceptingpayment or reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.

    In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://live.barcap.com/publiccp/RSR/nyfipubs/disclaimer/disclaimer-research-dissemination.html. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: http://group.barclays.com/corporates-and-institutions/research/research-policy.

    The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays produces a variety of research products including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis, quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of research product may differfrom recommendations contained in other types of research products, whether as a result of differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.

    Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

    Kazakhmys (KAZ.L, 10-Oct-2013, GBp 255.0), Underweight/Negative, D/F/J/K/L/N

    Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)

    Antofagasta (ANTO.L, 10-Oct-2013, GBp 852.0), Equal Weight/Negative, C/D/J/L

    First Quantum Minerals (FQM.L, 10-Oct-2013, GBp 1114.0), Equal Weight/Negative, J/K/N

    Disclosure Legend:

    A: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has been lead manager or co-lead manager of a publicly disclosed offer of securities of the issuer in theprevious 12 months.

    B: An employee of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a director of this issuer.

    C: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by this issuer or one of its affiliates.

    D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12 months.

    E: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the next 3 months.

    F: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of equity securities of the issuer as of the end of the month prior to the research report's issuance.

    G: One of the analysts on the coverage team (or a member of his or her household) owns shares of the common stock of this issuer.

    H: This issuer beneficially owns 5% or more of any class of common equity securities of Barclays Bank PLC.

    I: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has a significant financial interest in the securities of this issuer.

    J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of this issuer.

    K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from this issuer within the past 12 months.

    L: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

    M: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

    N: This issuer is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 14

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    O: Barclays Capital Inc., through Barclays Market Makers, is a Designated Market Maker in this issuer's stock, which is listed on the New YorkStock Exchange. At any given time, its associated Designated Market Maker may have "long" or "short" inventory position in the stock; and its associated Designated Market Maker may be on the opposite side of orders executed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in the stock.

    P: A partner, director or officer of Barclays Capital Canada Inc. has, during the preceding 12 months, provided services to the subject company for remuneration, other than normal course investment advisory or trade execution services.

    Q: The Corporate and Investment Banking division of Barclays Bank PLC, is a Corporate Broker to this issuer.

    R: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the past 12months.

    S: Barclays Capital Canada Inc. is a market-maker in an equity or equity related security issued by this issuer.

    Guide to the Barclays Fundamental Equity Research Rating System:

    Our coverage analysts use a relative rating system in which they rate stocks as Overweight, Equal Weight or Underweight (see definitions below) relative to other companies covered by the analyst or a team of analysts that are deemed to be in the same industry (the "industry coverageuniverse").

    In addition to the stock rating, we provide industry views which rate the outlook for the industry coverage universe as Positive, Neutral or Negative (see definitions below). A rating system using terms such as buy, hold and sell is not the equivalent of our rating system. Investorsshould carefully read the entire research report including the definitions of all ratings and not infer its contents from ratings alone.

    Stock Rating

    Overweight - The stock is expected to outperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

    Equal Weight - The stock is expected to perform in line with the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

    Underweight - The stock is expected to underperform the unweighted expected total return of the industry coverage universe over a 12-month investment horizon.

    Rating Suspended - The rating and target price have been suspended temporarily due to market events that made coverage impracticable or tocomply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain circumstances including where the Corporate and Investment Banking Division of Barclays is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.

    Industry View

    Positive - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are improving.

    Neutral - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are steady, neither improving nor deteriorating.

    Negative - industry coverage universe fundamentals/valuations are deteriorating.

    Below is the list of companies that constitute the "industry coverage universe":

    European Mining

    African Barrick Gold (ABGL.L) African Minerals Ltd. (AMIq.L) Anglo American plc (AAL.L)

    Antofagasta (ANTO.L) ArcelorMittal (ISPA.AS) BHP Billiton plc (BLT.L)

    Bumi Plc (BUMIP.L) Eurasian Natural Resources (ENRC.L) Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO.L)

    First Quantum Minerals (FQM.L) Fresnillo (FRES.L) Glencore Xstrata (GLEN.L)

    Hochschild Mining (HOCM.L) Kazakhmys (KAZ.L) London Mining Plc (LOND.L)

    Polymetal International (POLYP.L) Polyus Gold (PGIL.L) Randgold Resources (RRS.L)

    Rio Tinto plc (RIO.L) Vale (VALE) Vedanta Resources plc (VED.L)

    Distribution of Ratings:

    Barclays Equity Research has 2456 companies under coverage.

    44% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 50% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    39% have been assigned an Equal Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 45% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    14% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 41% of companies with this rating are investment banking clients of the Firm.

    Guide to the Barclays Research Price Target:

    Each analyst has a single price target on the stocks that they cover. The price target represents that analyst's expectation of where the stock will trade in the next 12 months. Upside/downside scenarios, where provided, represent potential upside/potential downside to each analyst's price

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 15

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    target over the same 12-month period.

    Guide to the POINT Quantitative Equity Scores:

    The POINT Quantitative Equity Scores (POINT Scores) are based on consensus historical data and are independent of the Barclays fundamental analysts views. Each score is composed of a number of standard industry metrics.

    A high/low Value score indicates attractive/unattractive valuation. Measures of value include P/E, EV/EBITDA and Free Cash Flow.

    A high/low Quality score indicates financial statement strength/weakness. Measures of quality include ROIC and corporate default probability.

    A high/low Sentiment score indicates bullish/bearish market sentiment. Measures of sentiment include price momentum and earnings revisions.

    These scores are valid as of the date of this report. To view the latest scores, which are updated monthly, click here.

    For a more detailed description of the underlying methodology for each score, please click here.

    Barclays offices involved in the production of equity research:

    London

    Barclays Bank PLC (Barclays, London)

    New York

    Barclays Capital Inc. (BCI, New York)

    Tokyo

    Barclays Securities Japan Limited (BSJL, Tokyo)

    So Paulo

    Banco Barclays S.A. (BBSA, So Paulo)

    Hong Kong

    Barclays Bank PLC, Hong Kong branch (Barclays Bank, Hong Kong)

    Toronto

    Barclays Capital Canada Inc. (BCCI, Toronto)

    Johannesburg

    Absa Capital, a division of Absa Bank Limited (Absa Capital, Johannesburg)

    Mexico City

    Barclays Bank Mexico, S.A. (BBMX, Mexico City)

    Taiwan

    Barclays Capital Securities Taiwan Limited (BCSTW, Taiwan)

    Seoul

    Barclays Capital Securities Limited (BCSL, Seoul)

    Mumbai

    Barclays Securities (India) Private Limited (BSIPL, Mumbai)

    Singapore

    Barclays Bank PLC, Singapore branch (Barclays Bank, Singapore)

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 16

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    Kazakhmys (KAZ LN / KAZ.L) Stock Rating Industry ViewGBP 2.55 (10-Oct-2013) UNDERWEIGHT NEGATIVE

    Rating and Price Target Chart - GBP (as of 10-Oct-2013) Currency=GBP

    Date Closing Price Rating Price Target

    26-Jul-2013 2.69 2.35

    14-May-2013 3.68 3.00

    18-Mar-2013 5.06 4.70

    14-Jan-2013 7.86 Underweight

    12-Oct-2012 7.16 Equal Weight 7.65

    12-Jul-2012 7.02 9.10

    12-Mar-2012 9.56 Overweight 11.80

    07-Jun-2011 12.71 Drop Coverage

    Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

    D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Kazakhmys in the past 12 months.

    F: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of equity securities of Kazakhmys as of the end of the monthprior to the research report's issuance.

    J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of Kazakhmys.

    K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from Kazakhmys within the past 12 months.

    L: Kazakhmys is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

    N: Kazakhmys is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of Barclays Bank PLCand/or an affiliate.

    Valuation Methodology: Our 192p target price for Kazakhmys shares is based on a 25% discount to NPV assuming the company cuts 50kt ofhigh cost production from H2-2014 onwards. We believe the discount is appropriate to reflect the risks in delivering this restructuring to the corebusiness and the growth projects as well as the company's high levels of gearing over the coming years.

    Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Risks include commodity price demand and pricing, relativelyhigh leverage, operating and capital cost inflation, project delivery, exchange rate movements, political risk in Kazakhstan and M&A risk.Corporate governance is also a risk given shareholder structure.

    Closing Price Target Price Rating Change Drop Coverage

    Jan- 2011 Jul- 2011 Jan- 2012 Jul- 2012 Jan- 2013 Jul- 2013

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 17

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    Antofagasta (ANTO LN / ANTO.L) Stock Rating Industry ViewGBP 8.52 (10-Oct-2013) EQUAL WEIGHT NEGATIVE

    Rating and Price Target Chart - GBP (as of 10-Oct-2013) Currency=GBP

    Date Closing Price Rating Price Target

    14-May-2013 9.40 9.00

    30-Jan-2013 11.10 10.45

    12-Jul-2012 9.88 12.82

    02-Apr-2012 10.95 11.06

    12-Mar-2012 12.06 Equal Weight 11.87

    07-Jun-2011 12.25 Drop Coverage

    07-Feb-2011 14.20 16.14

    Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

    C: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate is a market-maker and/or liquidity provider in securities issued by Antofagasta or one of its affiliates.

    D: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Antofagasta in the past 12 months.

    J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of Antofagasta.

    L: Antofagasta is, or during the past 12 months has been, an investment banking client of Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate.

    Valuation Methodology: Our 900p target price for Antofagasta shares is based on a P/E of 15x our CY13 EPS estimate.

    Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Risks include commodity price demand and pricing, operatingand capital cost inflation, project delivery, exchange rate movements, political risk in countries Antofagasta operates and M&A risk. Corporategovernance is also a risk given shareholder structure.

    Closing Price Target Price Rating Change Drop Coverage

    Jan- 2011 Jul- 2011 Jan- 2012 Jul- 2012 Jan- 2013 Jul- 2013

    6

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

    18

  • Barclays | Kazakhmys

    14 October 2013 18

    IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CONTINUED

    First Quantum Minerals (FQM LN / FQM.L) Stock Rating Industry ViewGBP 11.14 (10-Oct-2013) EQUAL WEIGHT NEGATIVE

    Rating and Price Target Chart - GBP (as of 10-Oct-2013) Currency=GBP

    Date Closing Price Rating Price Target

    26-Jul-2013 10.76 11.25

    14-May-2013 11.64 12.75

    12-Oct-2012 13.62 14.35

    12-Jul-2012 10.67 12.40

    02-Apr-2012 12.06 13.50

    12-Mar-2012 13.28 Equal Weight 14.40

    Link to Barclays Live for interactive charting

    J: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate trades regularly in the securities of First Quantum Minerals.

    K: Barclays Bank PLC and/or an affiliate has received non-investment banking related compensation from First Quantum Minerals within the past12 months.

    N: First Quantum Minerals is, or during the past 12 months has been, a non-investment banking client (non-securities related services) of BarclaysBank PLC and/or an affiliate.

    Valuation Methodology: Our 1125p target price for First Quantum shares is based on 0.9x NPV, which reflects increased risks as a result of theInmet acquisition.

    Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Price Target: Risks include commodity price demand and pricing, operatingand capital cost inflation, project delivery, exchange rate movements, political risk in countries First Quantum operates and M&A risk.

    Closing Price Target Price Rating Change

    Jan- 2011 Jul- 2011 Jan- 2012 Jul- 2012 Jan- 2013 Jul- 2013

    8

    10

    12

    14

    16

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    20

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