Kazakhstan Energy Infrastructure
Long-Term PlanningBrian H. Bowen
Global Partnerships, Power Pool Development Group
Energy Center at Discovery Park
PURDUE UNIVERSITY
West Lafayette, IN, USA
Kazakhstan Visiting Team to Purdue Energy Center
May 6, 2009
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Purdue’s Energy Center at Discovery Park
http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/
• SUFG forecasts & modeling
• PPDG, Global Partnerships
• Forecasting is critical for long-term modeling
• Reliable cost/performance data
Includes 10 centers - we represent 3 of them
CCTR, Center for Coal Technology Research
SUFG, State Utility Forecasting Group
PPDG, Power Pool Development Group
2
Electricity Power Markets
What is Wanted?
Benefits from greater system integration Lower reserve requirements & Load diversity
Economies of scale & Joint planning
Identifies likely markets for power & reserves
for projects, reduces perceived risk for investors
Resulting market discipline has “energizing effect”
on cost effectiveness, wheeling charges
Examples of Power Pools (Tight vs Loose)
NordPool, MISO/PJM, SAPP/WAPP
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Power Grids & Infrastructure Modeling
• Many good commercial technical software packages
• What are we wanting from our models?
• Purdue’s long-term model simultaneously expands
generation & transmission
• Purdue’s Long-Term model trades in
energy (MWh) & reserves (MW)
• Purdue model is primarily economic
but has detailed station & line specific data
• Best planning option is to use as many models as possible
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MISO Models ~ New Transmission, Coal, Wind
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http://www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/CCTR/byTopic.php
Investment in transmission is
vital for infrastructure development,
security, reliability, & success
of wind expansion
MISO = Midwest Independent System Operator
New 765 kV line costs $5 Million per mile
MISO & Indiana implementing wind
Nuclear only under environmental scenario
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Kazakhstan &
Regional
Infrastructure
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Crucial Value ~ Electricity Demand Growth Rate
2%, 4%, 8% or more?
Electricity planning is dominated by this variable
The Purdue model considers two values: 4% & 8%
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Purdue Long-Term Power Grid Modeling
High Level Planning
MW Unservedof
Costy Opportunit
WaterofCost
y Opportunit
Generators New
Expanding ofCost
Generators New
for Cost Fixed
Generators Existing
Expanding ofCost
Generation
ofCost
ValuePresent Cost Total
Objective ~ Cost Minimization
Capital Costs & Operational Costs
Typically ~ 20 year Planning Horizon
Purdue & Africa’s Developing Power Pools
Existing Powerlines
Proposed powerlines
(Southern Africa)
Possible Alternative
Powerlines (Northern Africa)
Potential future African Grid
Existing Powerlines
Proposed powerlines
(Southern Africa)
Existing Powerlines
Proposed powerlines
(Southern Africa)
Possible Alternative
Powerlines (Northern Africa)
Potential future African Grid
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Long-term Vision
USAID funding
for Purdue
modeling team
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RSA – Republic of South Africa
DRC – Democratic Republic of Congo
Purdue Modeling
with the Southern
African Power
Pool, SAPP
SAPP power pool planners wanted to make maximum use
of the regional hydropower (existing & proposed) & so reduce
South Africa’s thermal power capacity. The Purdue model
consistently recommended construction of the Western
corridor (from DRC to Angola to Namibia) - now under construction.
12 countries of the Southern
African Development
Community, SADC
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Purdue Modeling with
the West Africa African
Power Pool, WAPP
• WAPP Free Trade cost
savings = 15%-19%
• Cost of improved reliability
is low (2% with free trade)
14 countries of the Economic Community
of West African States, ECOWAS
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West African Gas Pipeline
Natural Gas from Nigeria to Ghana
Estimates from Transmission
Maps (kV) published by
Regional Power Committees
> 2000 MW
1-5, Delhi-Haryana
7-8, Uttar Pradesh-Uttranchal
2008, India 22 Node Model - State Peak Demand
Existing Transmission Network
Transmission
Scenario 4
Free Trade
8% Demand Growth
With 8% demand growth
there are huge line
expansions are needed to
meet reserve requirements
across the country
- multiple major high
voltage lines are required
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Benefits from an Integrated Indian Grid,
2008-2028 ($Million)
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Transmissions Expansion Options Facing MISO:
(a) U.S. Eastern Interconnect or (b) MISO Centric?
Transmission Coloring
Increased concerns in U.S. about transmission
congestion especially on east and west coasts.
What are the most vital new lines for Kazakhstan?
MISO, Midwest Independent System Operator
CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Duke Energy & American Electric Power (AEP)
have formed a 50-50 wholly-owned joint venture to build & operate
240 miles of 765 kV transmission lines & related facilities in Indiana.
The project, called Pioneer Transmission LLC, would link Duke
Energy’s Greentown Station (Kokomo, Indiana) with AEP’s Rockport
Station (Evansville, Indiana).
The project will expand extra-high-voltage transmission to improve
the reliability of the nation’s transmission grid & enhance the
efficiency & reliability of the region’s transmission operators –
Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) & PJM
Interconnection.
It’s estimated costs are approximately
$1 Billion (for 240 miles = $4Million/mile)
Duke Energy and AEP Form Joint
Venture to Build TransmissionAugust 11, 2008
http://www.duke-energy.com/news/releases/2008081101.asp
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18http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Kazakhstan/images/kaz_elecmap_lg.gif
Kazakhstan’s Infrastructure Development
Transmission & Gas Pipelines
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Kazakhstan/MapsTable.html
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Kazakhstan’s Infrastructure Planning
BIG QUESTIONS FOR PLANNERS
• What is Kazakhstan’s electricity demand growth rate?
• What is the most economical fuel supply?
• What are the roles of coal, natural gas, environment?
• What type of coal station, PC, USPC, IGCC?
• Where to locate the new power stations?
• What are the expansion plans for
transmission & gas pipelines?
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Kazakhstan’s Infrastructure Development
& Purdue Energy Center Modeling Team
WHAT NEXT?
• Can the Purdue team work with the nation’s planners?
• How can the Purdue high level generation & transmission
modeling – is this the right timing?
• Is there a need to prioritize new generation options?
• Are the gains from trade and the benefits of a more
integrated infrastructure being considered?
• Should Purdue partner with Kazakhstan for quantitative
analysis of some of the nation’s energy infrastructure
plans?
