INTERNATIONAL REPUBLICAN INSTITUTEBALTIC SURVEYS/THE GALLUP ORGANIZATION
Kazakhstan Presidential Election
EXIT POLL RESULTS
December 4, 2005
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 2
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
• This report is based on exit poll data collected by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization in cooperation with the Social and Political Research Center (Kazakhstan) during the Presidential election of December 4, 2005.
• A total of 23,780 voters at 283 polling stations were interviewed.
• The margin of error is +/- one percent.
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 3
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE
4.38.3
1.43.1
30.3
52.6
5.714.0
18.421.219.721.0
51.148.9
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
Male
Female
18-29
30-39
40-49
50-59 60
+No a
nswer
Kazak
hRuss
ianUkr
ainian
Uzbek
Other
No answ
er
Gender Age Group Ethnicity
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 4
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
REGIONAL COMPOSITION OF THE SAMPLE
2.4
6.5 5.2 5.17.3 6.0
8.8
4.0 5.22.7 2.2
10.8
4.5 5.8
13.8
9.9
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.016.018.020.0
Asta
na ci
tyAl
mat
y city
North
Kaz
kahs
tan
obl.
Pavlo
dar o
bl.
Kosta
nai o
bl.Ak
mola
obl.
Karag
anda
obl.
Weste
rn K
azak
hsta
n ob
l.
Akty
ubin
sk ob
l.At
yrau
obl.
Mangis
tau
obl.
Alm
aty o
bl.
Kyzylo
rda o
bl.
Zham
byl o
bl.
Sout
h Kaz
akhs
tan
obl
East
ern
Kazak
hsta
n ob
l.
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 5
MAIN RESULTS
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 6
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
WHICH OF THESE CANDIDATES DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
M. Eleussizov1.4%
N. Nazarbayev83.2%
Y. Abylkassymov1.2%
A. Baimenov3.2%
Zh. Tuyakbai9.9%
Spoiled the ballot1.1%
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 7
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Today9.3% A week ago
8.0%
A month ago13.1%
Earlier62.2%
No answer7.4%
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 8
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?
Paper 75.1%
Electronic18.1%
No answer6.8%
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 9
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?
Yes62.7%
No27.6%
No answer9.7%
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 10
DETAILED POLL RESULTS
83.2
9
4.1
1.4
1.3
1
N. Naz
arbay
ev
Zh. Tuya
kbai
A. Baim
enov
M. Eleu
ssizo
v
Y. Aby
lkass
ymov
d the ballot)
83.2
10.1
3.2
1.3
1
1.2
82.9
10.5
2.6
1.7
1.3
1
83.3
10.2
3.2
1.2
0.9
1.2
9.9
1.7
1.5
1.5
0.8
84.5
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Age groups
81.3
11.7
3.4
1.4
1.2
0.9
N. Nazarbayev
Zh. Tuyakbai
A. Baimenov
M. Eleussizov
Y.Abylkassymov
Other (spoiledthe ballot)
87.3
7
2.3
1.2
0.9
1.3
75.1
14.3
5.5
3.2
1
0.9
4.7
1.9
1.5
2
0.2
89.6
8.8
3.5
1.9
1.4
1.6
82.8
Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other
WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Ethnic groups
80.3
11.9
3.8
1.5
1.4
1.1
N. Nazarbayev
Zh. Tuyakbai
A. Baimenov
M. Eleussizov
Y.Abylkassymov
Other (spoiledthe ballot)
86.1
8
2.6
1.4
1
1.1
Male Female
WHICH CANDIDATE DID YOU VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
61.1
13.9
13.3
7.8
4
Earlier
Amonth
ago
Today
A weekago
Noanswer
62.2
14.5
9.8
9
4.5
64.8
15
7.7
7.9
4.6
63.6
13.3
8.9
9.3
4.9
9.8
6.4
5.8
3.5
74.6
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Age groups
62.9
15.4
9.3
7.9
4.4
Earlier
Amonth
ago
Today
A weekago
Noanswer
68.6
10.8
8.6
7.3
4.7
60.7
10.7
10.9
11.3
6.3
62.5
11
10.1
10.6
5.7
11.5
11.8
9.9
9.2
57.7
Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other
WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
Ethnic groups
58.6
13.4
10.8
9
8.2
Earlier
A monthago
Today
A weekago
Noanswer
65.6
12.8
7.9
7
6.6
Male Female
WHEN DID YOU DECIDE WHICH CANDIDIATE YOU WOULD VOTE FOR IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
71.6
25.3
3.1
Paper(usual)
Electronic
Noanswer
75.9
20.6
3.5
81.5
14.4
4.1
78.5
18.2
3.3
11.2
4.3
84.5
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?
Age groups
78.3
17.7
4
Paper(usual)
Electronic
Noanswer
74.4
21.1
4.4
77.6
18.2
4.2
80.8
17.3
1.9
15.3
8.2
76.5
Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other
WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?
Ethnic groups
75.5
17.5
7.1
Paper(usual)
Electronic
Noanswer
74.6
18.8
6.6
Male Female
WHICH VOTING SYSTEM DID YOU USE IN THE ELECTION?
50
44.4
5.6
Yes
No
Noanswer
66.4
27.6
6
72.3
22
5.7
70.9
23.4
5.8
23.1
5.4
71.4
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?
Age groups
66.5
26.9
6.5
Yes
No
Noanswer
62.3
31.2
6.5
60.5
31.6
7.9
64.8
29.8
5.4
28
8.7
63.3
Kazakh Russian Ukrainian Uzbek Other
DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?
Ethnic groups
62.7
26.7
10.6
Yes
No
Noanswer
62.6
28.5
8.8
Male Female
DID YOU VOTE IN THE 2004 MAJILIS (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS?
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 23
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLLMETHODOLOGY
• The sample design was based on the following criteria:• Representative of the entire country – the poll was done in all 14
regions (oblasts), Astana, and Almaty;• The number of polling stations selected in each oblast and both cities
was proportional to the share of polling stations of each oblast/city in the country’s total number of polling stations;
• The number of polling stations selected reflected the share of registered voters in each oblast/city;
• The sample composition represented the urban-rural distribution of the voting population;
• The selection of sampling points (polling stations) was based on official data regarding voter turnout in the districts (okrugs) in the 2004 Majilis (parliamentary) elections – districts with extremely low and extremely high turnout were excluded and the medium turnout figure of all locations, included in our sample, reflected the medium turnout figure for the whole country.
IRI, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization Kazakhstan presidential election exit poll, December 4, 2005 24
KAZAKHSTAN EXIT POLL
METHODOLOGY
• The interviews were conducted near the exit from the polling station but at least 10 meters from the doors, as required by law.
• Every 10th voter leaving the polling station was approached.
• The interviewers started interviewing at 7:30 a.m. and finished at 8:00 p.m.
• Data entry, calculations, and analysis were done in Almaty by Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization.
21.4%
30-4940%
50+31%
18-29 29% Male
46%Female
54%
KAZAKHSTAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS EXIT POLL, December 4, 2005
REFUSAL RATE
Refusals include voters who refused to be interviewed after leaving the polling station and those who did not answer the question about which candidate they voted for.
Structure of refusals by age
Structure of refusals by sex
Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization