Kelowna Real Estate Lots and Acreages for sale - Christine Wolter, … · 2014. 12. 14. · Alberta...

Kelowna Housing Markets

Outlook and Trends

CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

Today's Topics

BC OverviewEconomic UpdateImplications for Housing Market

Kelowna Overview The EconomyHousing Markets


Components of Economic Growth Remain Positive

Consumer spending +

Residential investment +

Business investment +

Net Exports -

Government spending +


Some Industry Sectors Performing Better

ConstructionResidentialNon- Residential

MiningConsumer services Finance, insurance and relatedHealth and education

Growth Sectors

ForestryTourismRetail Trade

Challenged Sectors


03 04 05 06 07 08

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500U

S D

olla

rs/m

bf

Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite Prices

Tax Zone

Source: Random Lengths.

May 14, 2005$463

Jan. 18, 2008$248

Forest Products Industry Faces Challenging Year


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007F 2008F0

1

2

3

4

5

Per

cen

t

BC Canada

Source: Statistics Canada. *CMHC Forecast.

BC Economy Sees More Moderate Growth in 2008

Annual Growth in Real GDP


01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08F-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Thou

sand

s

Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey.

BC Sees Solid Employment Growth

Persons Employed (Thousands)


2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 20072

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10P

er c

ent

Alberta BC Ontario

Ontario

BCAlberta

Source: Statistics Canada.

BC's Low Unemployment Rate Approaches Alberta's

Unemployment Rate


Incomes Growing in British Columbia

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07F 08F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9P

er c

ent

Year-over-year percentage change in wagessalaries and supplementary labour income

Source: Statistics Canada. CMHC Forecast.


01 02 03 04 05 06 0790

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Source: Conference Board of Canada

Energy PriceSpike

15 Year HighQ1 2006

British Columbians More Cautious in 2008

Consumer Confidence Index 1991 = 100


Job Opportunity and Lifestyle Attract Migrants to BC

2007 2008

International 37,700 40,000Inter-Provincial 12,000 12,800Total 49,700 52,800

100,000 People Come toBC in 2007 and 2008

CMHC Forecast.


Alberta

Sask.

Man.

Ont.

Que.

Atlantic

Territories

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Thousands

BC Net Inter-Provincial Migration By Province - January - September 2007


Coming and Going

7,245

-608

961

2,560

915

-270

137


00 01

02 03 04 05 06 07F

08F

4

5

6

7

8

9Pe

r ce

nt

Mortgage Rate Outlook Flat

Posted One and Five Year Residential Mortgage Rates

Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast.


Solid economic growth.Rising Wages.Strong employment growth.Low interest rates.Migration.Aging population/Search for lifestyle.

Demand Outlook Remains Positive


US housing and economic slowdown.High Canadian Dollar.Consumer confidenceLabour shortage.Alberta real estate markets cool down.

The Bottom Line

Risks to the Outlook

Migration, economy and labour market developments support ongoing high levels of housing activity.Monetary conditions remain favourable.Risks greater in 2008, but generally on the downside.

So ....

Kelowna Housing Markets


Central OkanaganNanaimo

Sunshine CoastFraser Valley

Northern RockiesCowichan Valley

Squamish-LillooetGreater Vancouver

CapitolPeace River

Comox StrathconaNorth Okanagan

Columbia-ShuswapOkanagan Similkameen

Thompson-NicolaAlberni-Clayoquot

Powell RiverEast Kootenay

Central KootenayFraser Fort GeorgeKootenay Boundary

CaribooBulkley-Nechako

Kitimat-StikineSkeena- Queen Charlotte

Mount WaddingtonStikine

Central Coast

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15


BC = 5.3%

Percent

Diversified economy =robust employment growth.In-migration of retirees and lifestylers

Per cent Increase 2001/2006

Kelowna Sees BC's Strongest Population Growth

Regional District


02 03 04 05 06 0750

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100Th

ousa

nds

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Per

cen

t

Employment Unemployment Rate


Employment Unemployment Rate

Employment Growth Boosts Demand for Housing


Ninth busiest in Canada.Passenger volumes up42% since 2003.Direct Employment: 1,250.

Kelowna Flightcraft: 550.$300 million in annualeconomic activity.Industry/institutional partnerships.

Airport Expansion Key to Growth


Student enrollment projected toreach 7,500 by 2009 from 3,987in 2006.Direct employment forecast todouble to 760 by 2009.$334 million in new constructionactivity since 2005. $490 millionprojected by 2009.$300 million in annualeconomic activity.

New UBC Okanagan Major Economic Driver


Westside Incorporation Boosts Regional Economy

Town centre redevelopment.Infrastructure.Public buildings.More services and prospects of newbridge across Lake Okanagan attractmore home buyers to Westbank area.

Kelowna CMA Welcomes New Municipality in 2008


The Search For Lifestyle

Retirees and Resort Markets Sources of Housing Demand

Aging Population"Wealth Factor" Equity gainsinduce spending.Hot BC and Alberta EconomiesClimate, settingServicesAccessHousing choices


Source: OMREB Data seasonally adjusted.

97 99 01

03 05 07

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350U

nits

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Uni

ts

Listings

Sales

Sales - Detached Units Listings - Detached Units

Sales of Existing Homes Rebound in 2007


00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*0

1

2

3

4

5

6T

hous

ands

Multi-family Detached

Source: OMREB. Multiples: Apartment and all Townhouses. CMHC Forecast.

Sales Moderate - Remain at High Levels in 2008

MLS® Sales - Units


99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 080

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Uni

ts

Source: OMREB.

Singles Active Listings 1999-2008 (January)

Ten Year Average 995 Listings

Supply of Singles Listings at Six Year High


94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01

02 03 04 05 06 07

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500Th

ousa

nds

Dol

lars

Kelowna House Prices Continue to Trend Up

Median Price - Detached Units

Source: OMREB. Data Seasonally Adjusted.


01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600T

hous

ands

Source: OMREB * CMHC Forecast.

Annual Median MLS® House Price

1.1% 6.8%17%

21%

$177,000$189,000$221,500

$267,000

$310,00016%

$373,50020%

$440,00018%

$475,0008%

Expect Smaller Price Increases in 2008 and 2009

$500,0005%


98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000U

nits

Multiples Single Detached

Source: CMHC * CMHC Forecast

Housing Starts Stay Near Record Highs in 2008

Total Housing Starts - Kelowna CMA


96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

Tho

usan

ds

Source: CMHC * CMHC Forecast

Rising land, land development and other costs push up new home prices. Move-up and retiree markets seek quality, lifestyle-oriented homes.

Price of New Detached Units Doubles in Five Years

Annual Median New Home Price


98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08*0

500

1000

1500

Uni

ts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Per

Cen

t

Condo Starts % Total Starts

Source: CMHC. CMHC Forecast.

Retiree and Resort Condos Fastest Growing Markets

Condominium Starts Stay at High Levels


New Resale

Detached $539,955 $440,000

Apartment Condo One Bed $259,900 $197,950Two Bed $322,900 $255,250All $304,900 $245,000

Townhouse Condo Two Bed $348,500 $259,500Three Bed $529,900 $335,000All $348,500 $297,500

Median New and MLS® Price - 2007

Source CMHC, OMREB.

More First-time Buyers Turn to Multi-family Housing

"Price" Key Driver


Apartment Condominiums Under Construction

Lifestyle, resort-oriented - more upscale units focus remain of demand.More first-time buyers are turning to new condo market. 79% of 2,505 units underconstruction presold.Condo market increasingly competitive in 2008 and 2009.Market seeing more speculationBalancing presale activity with escalating costs key challenge for developers.

Pre - sold

Source: CMHC. August 2007.

Condominium Pre-sales Remain Strong


Source: CMHC

Absorption remains strong, keeping inventories low.

00 01

02 03 04 05 06 07

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

Uni

ts

Single-Family

Semi, Row, Condo

Inventories Remain Low By Historical Standards

Inventory of Complete and Unoccupied Units


Strong demand for new, resale and rental housing this year and next. Expect sales activity to ease back from 2007's record high. Housing starts stay at near record highs. Multi-family sector, both new and resale, continues to see strongest growth in demand. Sustained upward pressure on prices - both new and resale units. Expect smaller price gains in 2008 and 2009.Low vacancy rates/rising rents.

Kelowna - What to Expect in 2008


Affordability, Affordability, AffordabilityRising Costs

Building lotsMaterialsLabour

Shortage of skilled tradesRental Housing

Kelowna - Challenges

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Kelowna Real Estate Lots and Acreages for sale - Christine Wolter, … · 2014. 12. 14. · Alberta...

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