No part of this report may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution without prior written approval from KenGen. All the information contained herein was prepared for information to the German Parliamentarians visiting Kenya
26 February 2015, Kenya
CONFIDENTIAL
Albert Mugo, MD & CEO, KenGen
Disclaimer:
Kenya’s Geothermal Journey
1
OUTLINE:
Discussion3
Kenya’s Geothermal Journey2
Preamble – Geothermal Potential in Africa and Kenya1
2Source: TMO; Internet Sources; Argeo
>20,000MW potential
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Kenya> 10,000MW
Ethiopia>5,000MW
Rwanda>700MW
Tanzania > 650MW
Uganda > 450MW
DRC - ?
Comoros - ?
Zambia - ?
Malawi - ?
Mozambique - ?
Djibouti - ?
Eritrea - ?
Burundi - ?
Sudan - ?
1
Kenya
Huge Geothermal Potential in Africa but very little has been tapped…
3
Kenya’s Geothermal Potential 10 GW in over 23 sites…
Source: TMO; Internet Sources; Argeo
• Suswa,• Longonot,• Olkaria,• Eburru, • Menengai,• Arus-Bogoria,• Lake Baringo,• Korosi,• Paka,• Lake Magadi,• Badlands,• Silali,• Emuruangogolak,• Namarunu• Barrier• Mwananyamala• Homa Hills• Nyambene Ridges• Chyulu Hills
> 10,000MW in over 23 sites
1
Olkaria Block(1,200MW)(i)Developing 350MW(ii) Drilling for 560MW (the first 324MWe commissioned)
Menengai Block (1,600MW)
(Drilling Ongoing)90MWe tender awarded to private developers
Private developers already licensed at Olkaria, Akiira and Longonot fields
4
OUTLINE:
Discussion3
Kenya’s Geothermal Journey2
Preamble – Geothermal Potential in Africa and Kenya1
5Source: TMO; BDS Division
1956-59 1967-70 1971-76 1976-85 1986-98
• Two Exploratory wells drilled to a depth of ~950m
• GoK & UNDP entered into an agreement to extensively undertake geothermal resource assessment
1999-2006
This decision was the turning point in Geothermal Development in Kenya …
• Six wells were drilled with positive results.
• Decision was taken to concentrate Geothermal Development at Olkaria area (~80km2).
• Drilling was accelerated and about 23 wells drilled
• 45 MW (Olkaria I) commissioned between 1981-1985
• Most financing was from World Bank
• Drilling continued in Olkaria II Steam field ~ 30 wells drilled by 1992
• From 1992, financiers pulled out and no major works undertaken until 1999
• Exploratory/ Discovery wells drilled in 1999 in Olkaria IV field
• Production drilling & commissioningOlkaria II 70MW in 2003
• Thro’ GoKfunding, appraisal drilling started in 2006
• Concession given to Orpower 4 in Olkaria III field in 1998
GEOTHERMAL: DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA TO-DATE3
6
2007 - date
• Production drilling started in Olkaria I&IV (about 57 wells drilled with over ~ 370MW capped)
• Olkaria I & IV 280MW - 2014
• Olkaria II 3rd Unit 35MW commissioned
• Over ~US$1,065m committed by development partners over the years in Olkaria
About US$ 1,065 million have been committed by DFIs in Olkaria Field
Current total Geothermal Capacity for Kenya is ~
579MW
Source: SBP; BD Division
GEOTHERMAL: DEVELOPMENT IN KENYA TO-DATE (Cont.)23
Olk. I 45MW
[1981-85]
Olk. II 70MW [2003]
Olk. I 3rd Unit (35MW) [2010]
Olk. I&IV (280MW)
[2014] TotalIDA (US$ 'm) 118 108 29 120 375EIB (US$ 'm) 8.8 39 50 108 205.8KfW (US$ 'm) 11 12 - 99 122CDC(£ 'm) 15.5 - - - 15.5AfD (US$ 'm) - - 28 118 146JICA (US$ 'm) - - - 201 201
7
Milestones
1985
Olkaria I - 45MW
KENYA GEOTHERMAL: MILESTONES OVER THE YEARS
2003
Olkaria II – 70MW
2009
Orpower II – 36MW
2
Orpower I –13MW
1998
2010
Olkaria II unit 3 – 35MWOserian – 2MW
2013
Commencement of Olkaria I&IV 280MW WellHeads75MW
2012
Pilot Wellhead – 5MWOrpower III – 61MW
2011
Eburru – 2.5MW
2014
Olkaria I & IV – 280MWWellheads – 40MW
8Source: TMO; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothermal_electricity
KENYA’S POSITION IN THE GEOTHERMAL DEVELOPMENT GLOBALLY
011813152728425697104163204208
579664895901980
1,333
1,894
3,389
537
Aus
tralia
Eth
iopi
a
Thai
land
Aus
tria
Ger
man
y
Fran
ce
Chi
na
Por
tuga
l
Gua
tem
ala
Pap
ua N
ew G
uine
a
Rus
sia
Nic
arag
ua
Turk
ey
El S
alva
dor
Cos
ta R
ica
Japa
n
Ken
ya
Icel
and
New
Zea
land
Italy
Mex
ico
Indo
nesi
a
Phi
lippi
nes
USA
• World Geothermal Installed Capacity ~ 12,239MWe
Kenya is 9th with ~ 579MWe (4.7%)
3
9Source: KenGen
KENYA’S GEOTHERMAL JOURNEY FROM 1956 to DATE
240
220
172162
144
128114
106103
101100999694918779
6759
504641363127242115119743
2012
2011
2010
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1988
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
2013
2009
2008
2007
1999
1998
1997
1996
+126%
1980
1979
1978
1975
1974
1973
1956
2014
Little activity for ~15yrs. No funding for geothermal.
3
4
10
GOVERNMENT DRILLING COMMITMENTS OVER THE YEARS
Source:KenGen, TMO
380
200
1,278
33
200
160
4580
170
Total20132010
10
2012201120082004 2005 2006 2014
US$ ‘m
GoK has committed over US$ 1.2bln to mitigate
drilling risk
3
11Source: KenGen;
955
17,615
InterestDuring
Construction
Admin-stration
685
Consul-tancy
500
Substation&
Transmission
585
PowerPlant
6,600
SteamField
2,810
Drilling
5,480
Total
US$ million
Approximately US$ 18billion required to
develop the projected 5GW of
geothermal by 2030
ESTIMATED INVESTMENT IN GEOTHERMAL BY 2030
12
Thank You
