Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis

A systematic problem solving

& decision making method

Submitted to : Aswani Sir

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Credits …

What is it??? ► Kepner Tregoe decision making is a

structured methodology for gathering information and prioritizing and evaluating it. It was developed by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe in the 1960s.

► This is a rational model that is well respected in business management circles. An important aspect of Kepner Tregoe decision making is the assessment and prioritizing of risk.

► So the idea is not to find a perfect solution but rather the best possible choice, based on actually achieving the outcome with minimal negative consequences.

► It is marketed as a way to make unbiased decisions in that it is said to limit conscious and unconscious biases that draw attention away from the outcome.

The Basic steps of Kepner Tregoe Problem

Analysis {KTPA} :

► Situation Appraisal► Problem Analysis► Decision Analysis► Potential Problem

(Opportunity) Analysis

Situation Appraisal • Situation Appraisal is used to separate,

clarify and prioritize concerns. When confusion is mounting, the correct approach is unclear, or priorities overwhelm plans, Situation Appraisal is the tool of choice.

• Situation Appraisal clarifies and keeps the issues that matter visable. It can create understanding of how concerns should be handled and priorities set, and it tracks the involvement of others through to resolution.

When it applies??? complex situations which require a deeper

understanding before effective action can be determined; situations where there is conflict

Mistakes which generally lead to its use!!!

being too general; delay or procrastination;

conflict isn’t adequately surfaced and addressed;

too much focus on unimportant (easily addressable) things;

too little focus on more important (but not as easily addressed) issues

Situation Appraisal improves:

Shift changes and hand-offs Staff and project status meetings Daily planning Crisis management Project planning and status

reporting Taskforce and steering committee

planning Conflict resolution and negotiation Department or function planning

Basic Steps: See the Issues

Clarify the Issues Assess Priorities Name Next Steps

Situation Situation

Appraisal is also Appraisal is also

known as known as SCAN SCAN

because of the because of the

steps used for steps used for

its Operationits Operation

Problem Analysis

• Problem Analysis is used to find the cause of a positive or negative deviation. When people, machinery, systems, or processes are not performing as expected, Problem Analysis points to the relevant information and leads the way to the root cause. The process is used to gather and analyze just the information needed to find and correct the true cause of a problem, making it particularly effective in today’s data-rich environment. This promotes rapid and accurate issue resolution.

• Problem Analysis complements and enhances use of statistical quality tools and data. It is used by organization’s worldwide in their path towards Lean and Six Sigma and helps to maintain customer and supplier relationships by clarifying where problems and solutions lie.

When it applies: when there is a deviation between what

should be happening and what is actually happening; when expectations are not being met

Mistakes which generally lead to its use!!! finger-pointing and blame-fixing; taking action based on assumptions rather than

facts; not using or misusing data; not addressing causes having to FIX the same problem repeatedly

Problem Analysis improves:

Manufacturing quality Maintenance and repairs Customer care Product reliability Handling people issues Sales and marketing performance Investigation and documentation of deviations Incident reporting and record keeping

Basic Steps: Focus on the Problem

Identify IS and IS Not

Name Possible Causes

Determine True Cause and Verify

Problem Problem

Analysis is Analysis is

also known as also known as

FIND FIND because because

of the steps of the steps

used for its used for its

OperationOperation

Decision Analysis

• Decision Analysis is used for making a choice. When the path ahead is not clear, when there are too many choices, or the risk of making the wrong choice great, Decision Analysis clarifies the purpose and balances risks and benefits to arrive at a solid and supported choice.

• This step-by-step process marries logic, expertise, creativity, and factual information to reveal choices that have the right balance of acceptable risk and reward. By clarifying the thinking behind the decision, highly complex, controversial, or emotionally charged decisions can be made faster and with greater confidence.

When it applies: when a choice must be made; when there is

disagreement about which alternative is best; when there is a need to create new alternatives

Mistakes which generally lead to its use!!!

no upfront clarification of or agreement about objectives;

conflict about alternatives; implementation may be difficult or

impossible

Personnel selection Procurement and make vs. buy Product and project portfolio management Selecting a fix Site selection Product design Budgeting and capital investment Process redesign

Decision Analysis improves:

Basic Steps:

State the Decision to be made

Establish Criteria List Options Evaluate Options Consider Risks

Trust Your Work

Decision Decision

Analysis is also Analysis is also

known as known as

SELECT SELECT because because

of the steps of the steps

used for its used for its

OperationOperation

Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis

• Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis is used to protect and leverage actions or plans. When a project simply must go well, risk is high, or myriad things could go wrong, Potential Problem Analysis reveals the driving factors and identifies ways to lower risk. When one action is taken, new opportunities arise that can help you benefit from that action.

• Potential Problem/Opportunity Analysis directs experience and creativity to prepare for the future and manage acceptable risk. The analysis helps you deploy resources in a way that ensures the greatest chance of success.

When it applies: in preparing to implement a new initiative,

policy, change or decision; in preparing for a significant upcoming event

Mistakes which generally lead to its use!!! focus on contingent actions (what to do after

the problem occurs) rather than on preventive actions (how to keep the problem from occurring);

not planning for implementation Just “hoping” everything goes well

Planned shutdowns Process and system

changes Project management Relocation logistics Leadership transition Event planning Product launches

Equipment Installation and - supplier changes

Basic Steps: Predict Potential problem List likely causes Agree on Preventative actions Note Contingent actions

Potential Potential

Problem Problem

Analysis is also Analysis is also

known as known as PLAN PLAN

because of the because of the

steps used for steps used for

its Operationits Operation

Sales and marketing planning Safety Compliance risk reporting

Potential Problem Analysis improves:

20% 20% 20% 20% 20%100

%

OptionAttribut

e 1Attribut

e 2Attribut

e 3Attribute

4Attribute

5 Score

Option A 0

Option B 0

Option C 0

Option D 0

Option E 0

Step 1: List options as rows

Step 2: Determine important attributes and add/remove columns, as appropriate

Step 3: Assign relative weights to each attribute in row 9 (i.e. an 8 would be twice as important as a 4)

Step 4: Assign objective 0-100 scores for each attribute across options (best to do this on an attribute-by-attribute basis)

Step 5: Options with the higest scores should be considered

Easy Decision Making in Excel Format :

4 4 5 4 3 2 3 2516% 16% 20% 16% 12% 8% 12% 100%

OptionWater View Trees Seclusion Contour

Neigh-bour

Lot Size Cost Score

Land 1 100 60 60 40 40 80 40 60

Land 2 60 40 40 60 40 60 60 50

Land 3 80 100 100 100 100 80 60 90

Here’s an example of decision matrix from

excel This example is about a Person who is willing to buy a land but is confused in selecting the most suitable land from his list of BEST 3

Following is his workout decision analysis :-

Example number 2 :

A per son Uses Kepner Tregoe analysis to get a conclusion on which car to buy :-

That was it!!! Any Questions???

Thank You!!!