Kevin M. Wilson, ChFC, PhDPresident/CEO/CIO
Dheenu Sivalingam, MBAAVP/CCO/Senior Analyst
1314 E. Superior StreetSuite 2Duluth, MN 55805
Office: 218-464-4399 Toll Free: 877-327-5062
Fax: 218-464-4397Email: [email protected]
www.bluewatercapitaladvisors.com
Monthly Market Review
“Groundhog Day 2012: Déjà vu All Over Again”February 16, 2012
Ted A. Pavlovich, WMSVP Wealth Management
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INTRODUCTION
TED A. PAVLOVICH
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US SITUATION REPORT
TED A. PAVLOVICH
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The Job Train Has Jumped The Tracks
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Good News On Short Term Unemployment Data
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Tax Data (Down) Do Not Agree With Gov’t. Unemployment Data (Down) – Why?
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Changing Need for Temp Workers Boosting Recovery But Making Data Hard To Interpret
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Housing May Be Nearing The Bottom At Last
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This Trend Can’t Be Sustained, So It Won’t Be (i.e., Profits Will Fall & Wages Will Rise)
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Market May Be Topping Out Soon
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Apples To Apples on Market Earnings Growth (“NBA”)
MARKETS SEE THEIR SHADOWS
DHEENU V. SIVALINGAM
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Economic Surprises About Used Up
S&P 500 S&P 500 Started 2011& 2012
1257
Current Level 1340
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AAII Sentiment
2012: 02/09/12Bullish: 51.64%Bearish: 20.19%8 Week Bull Moving Avg: 41%Bull Bear Spread: 31.5%S&P 500 Weekly Close: 1349.96
2011: 02/10/11Bullish: 49.40%Bearish: 26.91%8 Week Bull Moving Avg: 52%Bull Bear Spread: 22.5%S&P 500 Weekly Close: 1324.57
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NYSE Short Interest
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USD At Same Levels
$DXY 79 Level
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VIX Trading at Same Levels
VIXBelow 20 Level
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GLOBAL ECONOMY AT PIVOT POINT
KEVIN M. WILSON19
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IMF Forecasting Global Slowdown
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China Slowdown Is Bigger Than Many Think
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Fighting Inflation Has A Cost
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Chinese Mfg. = Exports = GDP*
*Note That Electricity Demand Has Fallen 7.5% in a Month(Example: Allete Sells Less Power If Mines Slow Down)
Asian Exports Plummeting
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Euro-Zone Entering A Recession(In Spite of “De-Coupling We Might Too”)
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Euro-Zone Unemployment Soaring As Austerity Plans Kick Into Gear
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Euro-Zone Deficits Are Structural
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Only Money Printing Has Held Off Another US Recession
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Massive Money Printing Has NotProduced Massive Money Supply/Inflation
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Other Signs Of Strain for Households
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Industrial Production (=Exports) Has Been Pretty Good…
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…And QE Has Made Dollar Fall, Which Is Good For Exports
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Auto “Sales” & Inventory Data Imply A Recession Is Near
(Floor Plan Lending)
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…Falling Fuel Demand May Be A Negative Sign Though
(Ships, Trains, Trucks, Autos)
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Dollar Is In Short Term Up Trend
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Treasuries Still Indicate Trouble Ahead
SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
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KEVIN M. WILSON
-Risk/Reward Very Dangerous, But Market Still Wants To Go Up Near Term
-Economic Data and Earnings Should Cause Big Doubts Going Forward
-We are Ready For Either Case, But Currently Positioned Against Risk
-If Market Sells Off, Risk/Reward Will Be VG & Huge Opportunity Awaits
This report is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or commodity and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time without notice. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, for its accuracy and interpretation are not guaranteed.
Investing in securities involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance should not be taken as an indication of guarantee of future performance and no representation, express or implied, is made regarding future performance.
The firm does not provide tax advice; clients should contact their attorney, accountant, or other tax adviser regarding tax matters.
Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is an SEC registered investment advisor. Not FDIC insured. No bank guarantee. May lose value. Not a deposit. Not insured by any federal government agency. Blue Water Capital Advisors, LLC is not affiliated with National Bank of Commerce or NATCOM Bancshares, Inc.
Disclaimer
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