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Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… ·...

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368.00 368.20 358.57 366.45 -0.05% 0.42% 878.8 886.9 986.0 950.4 -0.91% -7.53% 331.46 335.38 317.31 302.94 -1.17% 9.41% 0.2835 0.2840 0.3269 0.3374 -0.18% -15.98% 10.55 11.50 10.33 12.50 -8.22% -15.57% 564.80 555.05 436.66 451.95 1.76% 24.97% 1.535 1.435 1.557 1.555 6.93% -1.32% 1.611 1.544 1.579 1.694 4.34% -4.87% 14.91 14.56 14.88 16.35 2.40% -8.82% 2.324 2.307 2.081 2.668 0.74% -12.89% 1.135 1.112 1.210 1.162 2.12% -2.30% 1.776 1.731 1.759 1.827 2.55% -2.80% 0.3821 0.4463 0.4562 0.6207 -14.38% -38.44% 1.2533 1.4405 1.4067 2.4513 -13.00% -48.87% 1.0700 1.1100 1.2316 1.4700 -3.60% -27.21% 77.00 77.00 67.02 80.00 0.00% -3.75% 31.20 30.95 36.07 34.90 0.81% -10.60% 1.176 1.130 0.912 0.996 4.07% 18.07% 67.91 68.80 43.32 49.11 -1.29% 38.30% 202.70 202.70 127.08 153.20 0.00% 32.31% 322.30 322.60 230.22 258.10 -0.09% 24.87% 285.20 284.60 214.03 237.80 0.21% 19.93% 2.921 2.801 2.549 2.895 4.28% 0.90% 1.1543 1.1653 1.1068 1.1779 -0.94% -2.00% 1.2875 1.3087 1.3568 1.3003 -1.62% -0.98% 0.7385 0.7404 0.7438 0.7900 -0.26% -6.52% 1.3055 1.3001 1.3265 1.2688 0.42% 2.89% 6.836 6.820 6.639 6.681 0.23% 2.32% 0.995 0.991 0.985 0.967 0.31% 2.82% 25.72 26.05 27.62 24.80 -1.27% 3.71% 161.80 168.90 168.27 136.10 -4.20% 18.88% 1.0700 1.0775 1.3543 1.4030 -0.70% -23.73% * Used as the indexing unit of measure for this exchange rate On Highway Diesel Live Cattle Pork Bellies *Australian Dollar Eggs Large MW Course Ground Beef Live Hog Federal Reserve Chicken Breast Jumbo MW On Highway Gasoline Natural Gas Source: New York Mercantile Exchange Crude Oil Crude Peanut Oil Source: USDA NYMEX Futures & Retail Heating Oil No.2 Spot Cheddar Barrel Cheddar Block Milk Class III Source: CME Group USDA Weekly Prices Palm Oil Butter AA Soybean Oil Market Commentary *Euro Canadian Dollar Chinese Yuan Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York ICE Futures Sugar 16 Coffee Source: Intercontinental Exchange Swiss Frank *British Pound Orange Juice Wheat Rough Rice August 13, 2018 8/6/2018 This Week Last Week YTD Avg Last Year vs. Last Week Commodity Activity - Weekly Average CME Group Corn Soybean Soy Meal vs. Last Year 7/30/2018 Key Commodity Report Weekly Commodity Information: Commodity information found in this report is publically available. It can be found from numerous sources, all of which are noted. This report is for general informational purposes only. You should not rely upon the material or information in this report as a basis to make any hedging or buying decisions. Sysco makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, reliability, suitability, accuracy, or availability of the information contained in this report for any purpose and any reliance placed upon this information is done strictly at your own risk. Please note that rounding can affect the percent of change values.* U.S. Currency Index compares the U.S. Dollar 1.99 2.04 2.09 2.14 2.19 U.S. Currency Index 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.39 26 36 46 56 66 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Soybean Oil & Crude Oil Relationship Crude Oil Soybean Oil 26 36 46 56 66 76 86 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December Crude Oil - Average Weekly Price - NYMEX 350 355 360 365 370 This Week Last Week YTD Avg Last Year Corn 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75 This Week Last Week YTD Avg Last Year Cheddar Block 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 This Week Last Week YTD Avg Last Year Coffee Commentary: The USDA released it's WASDE report on Friday and they threw us a bit of a curve. The report increased the bushels per acre number quite a bit, from 48.5 to 51.6. This, along with export reductions due to levied tariffs, effectively forced the market lower due to a large amount of carryout for beans and soybean oil. The WASDE report actually added enough U.S. soybeans to the balance sheet greater than the amount of beans crushers can actually put into production. For soybean oil the overall food use demand has increased and the biodiesel demand stayed the same. Exports have increased for soybean oil to some countries other than China. For Canola, hot and dry weather has persisted in the prairies. For many the weather was bad during the flowering stage and this will impact the amount of tonnage coming from the fields and will impact the oil percentage from each seed. Canola is already tight, so expect cash values to continue to escalate. The good news is that we use the soybean futures to hedge Canola. With bean oil futures moving down, basis increases for Canola are keeping large increases at bay. Palm oil again is basically unchanged week over week. There is a lot of supply from Indonesia while Malaysian stocks are a little behind. This is historically when palm oil values are at their lowest each year.
Transcript
Page 1: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

368.00 368.20 358.57 366.45 -0.05% 0.42% 878.8 886.9 986.0 950.4 -0.91% -7.53% 331.46 335.38 317.31 302.94 -1.17% 9.41% 0.2835 0.2840 0.3269 0.3374 -0.18% -15.98% 10.55 11.50 10.33 12.50 -8.22% -15.57% 564.80 555.05 436.66 451.95 1.76% 24.97% 1.535 1.435 1.557 1.555 6.93% -1.32% 1.611 1.544 1.579 1.694 4.34% -4.87% 14.91 14.56 14.88 16.35 2.40% -8.82% 2.324 2.307 2.081 2.668 0.74% -12.89%

1.135 1.112 1.210 1.162 2.12% -2.30% 1.776 1.731 1.759 1.827 2.55% -2.80% 0.3821 0.4463 0.4562 0.6207 -14.38% -38.44% 1.2533 1.4405 1.4067 2.4513 -13.00% -48.87% 1.0700 1.1100 1.2316 1.4700 -3.60% -27.21% 77.00 77.00 67.02 80.00 0.00% -3.75% 31.20 30.95 36.07 34.90 0.81% -10.60% 1.176 1.130 0.912 0.996 4.07% 18.07%

67.91 68.80 43.32 49.11 -1.29% 38.30% 202.70 202.70 127.08 153.20 0.00% 32.31% 322.30 322.60 230.22 258.10 -0.09% 24.87% 285.20 284.60 214.03 237.80 0.21% 19.93% 2.921 2.801 2.549 2.895 4.28% 0.90%

1.1543 1.1653 1.1068 1.1779 -0.94% -2.00% 1.2875 1.3087 1.3568 1.3003 -1.62% -0.98% 0.7385 0.7404 0.7438 0.7900 -0.26% -6.52% 1.3055 1.3001 1.3265 1.2688 0.42% 2.89% 6.836 6.820 6.639 6.681 0.23% 2.32% 0.995 0.991 0.985 0.967 0.31% 2.82%

25.72 26.05 27.62 24.80 -1.27% 3.71% 161.80 168.90 168.27 136.10 -4.20% 18.88% 1.0700 1.0775 1.3543 1.4030 -0.70% -23.73%

* Used as the indexing unit of measure for this exchange rate

On Highway Diesel

Live Cattle

Pork Bellies

*Australian Dollar

Eggs Large MW

Course Ground BeefLive Hog

Federal Reserve

Chicken Breast Jumbo MW

On Highway GasolineNatural GasSource: New York Mercantile Exchange

Crude Oil

Crude Peanut Oil

Source: USDA

NYMEX Futures & Retail

Heating Oil No.2 Spot

Cheddar BarrelCheddar BlockMilk Class III

Source: CME Group

USDA Weekly Prices

Palm Oil

Butter AA

Soybean Oil

Market Commentary

*Euro

Canadian DollarChinese Yuan

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

ICE Futures

Sugar 16

CoffeeSource: Intercontinental Exchange

Swiss Frank

*British Pound

Orange Juice

Wheat Rough Rice

August 13, 2018

8/6/2018 This Week

Last Week YTD Avg Last Year

vs. Last Week

Commodity Activity - Weekly Average

CME Group

CornSoybeanSoy Meal

vs. Last Year7/30/2018

Key Commodity Report Weekly

Commodity Information: Commodity information found in this report is publically available. It can be found from numerous sources, all of which are noted. This report is for general informational purposes only. You should not rely upon the material or information in this report as a basis to make any hedging or buying decisions. Sysco makes no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, reliability, suitability, accuracy, or availability of the information contained in this report for any purpose and any reliance placed upon this information is done strictly at your own risk. Please note that rounding can affect the percent of change values.* U.S. Currency Index compares the U.S. Dollar

1.99

2.04

2.09

2.14

2.19

U.S. Currency Index

0.250.270.290.310.330.350.370.39

26

36

46

56

66

JanuaryFebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

berJanuaryFebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

berJanuaryFebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

berJanuaryFebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

ber

Soybean Oil & Crude Oil Relationship

Crude Oil Soybean Oil

26

36

46

56

66

76

86

JanuaryFebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

berJanuary

FebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

berJanuary

FebruaryM

archAprilM

ayJuneJulyAugustSeptem

berO

ctoberN

ovember

Decem

ber

Crude Oil - Average Weekly Price - NYMEX

350 355 360 365 370

This Week

Last Week

YTD Avg

Last Year

Corn

1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 1.70 1.75

This Week

Last Week

YTD Avg

Last Year

Cheddar Block

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50

This Week

Last Week

YTD Avg

Last Year

Coffee

Commentary: The USDA released it's WASDE report on Friday and they threw us a bit of a curve. The report increased the bushels per acre number quite a bit, from 48.5 to 51.6. This, along with export reductions due to levied tariffs, effectively forced the market lower due to a large amount of carryout for beans and soybean oil. The WASDE report actually added enough U.S. soybeans to the balance sheet greater than the amount of beans crushers can actually put into production. For soybean oil the overall food use demand has increased and the biodiesel demand stayed the same. Exports have increased for soybean oil to some countries other than China. For Canola, hot and dry weather has persisted in the prairies. For many the weather was bad during the flowering stage and this will impact the amount of tonnage coming from the fields and will impact the oil percentage from each seed. Canola is already tight, so expect cash values to continue to escalate. The good news is that we use the soybean futures to hedge Canola. With bean oil futures moving down, basis increases for Canola are keeping large increases at bay. Palm oil again is basically unchanged week over week. There is a lot of supply from Indonesia while Malaysian stocks are a little behind. This is historically when palm oil values are at their lowest each year.

Page 2: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

Term DefinitionUSDA United States Department of Agriculture

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)Trading platform where many commodities are bought & sold. Now known as the CME Group.

CME Group

Chicago Mercantile Exchange and CBOT mergedto create the CME Group. The largest trading platform globally.

Basis A premium or discount to the futures marketBoard Current futures price.Bull A trader who thinks the market will trend higherBear A trader who thinks the market will trend lowerShort A term used to identify selling a commodity or derivativeLong A term used to identify buyin a commodity or derivativeFront Month Current futures trading monthBack months Any trading month beyond the front month

Futures Contract

A legally binding agreement to buy or sell a commodity or financial instrument at a later date pursuant to the Rules of the Exchange

Forward Contract

A private, cash-market agreement between a buyer and seller for the future delivery of a commodity at an agreed price. In contrast to futures contracts, forward contracts are not standardized and not transferable.

Carryover Last year's ending stocks of a storable commodity

CorrectionWhen the market makes a full about face moving by 10% or greater

RetracementWhen the market makes an about face, but not as strong as a correction

CWT Centum Weight or 100 weight

Backwardation

A term used mostly in energy trading referring to inverted futures where prices currently are higher than in deffered months.

Long Refers to buyingShort Refers to selling

WASDE ReportRefers to the USDA World Agricutural Supply & Demand Estimates

Metric Tonne 2,204 pounds

Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)

Congress created the renewable fuel standard (RFS) program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and expand the nation’s renewable fuels sector while reducing reliance on imported oil. This program was authorized under the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. https://www.epa.gov/renewable-fuel-standard-program

bpa bushels per acre

Page 3: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 3

Corn - CBOT Weekly Futures Price

300

320

340

360

380

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440Ja

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Corn - CBOT Average WeeklyPrice - Dollars / Bushel

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 4: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 4

Soybeans - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / Bushel

750

850

950

1050

1150

1250

Janu

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Soybeans - CBOT Average WeeklyPrice Dollars / Bushel

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 5: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 5

Soybean Meal - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / US Ton

250

300

350

400

450

500

Janu

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Soybean Meal - CBOT Average WeeklyPrice Dollars / U.S. (short ton)

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 6: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 6

Soybean Oil - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Cents / Pound

0.255

0.275

0.295

0.315

0.335

0.355

0.375

Janu

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June July

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Soybean Oil - CBOT Average WeeklyPrice - Cents / Pound

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 7: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 7

Wheat - CBOT Weekly Average Price - Dollars / Bushel

350

400

450

500

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600

650

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Wheat - CBOT Average WeeklyPrice - Dollars / Bushel

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 8: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 8

Barrel Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Price / Pound

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

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Barrel Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Dollars per Pound

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 9: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 9

40 LB Block Cheddar - CME Average Weekly Price / Pound

1.2

1.3

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1.8

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Block Cheddar 40 #- CME Average Weekly Dollars per Pound

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 10: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 10

Milk Class III - CME Average Weekly Price CWT

12

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Milk Class III- CME Average Weekly Price cwt

2018 2017 2016 Average

Page 11: Key Commodity Report - bpaa.combpaa.com/portals/0/documents/KeyCommodityReportWeekly080620… · 24.80-1.27%; 3.71% 161.80; 168.90168.27; 136.10-4.20%; 18.88% 1.0700; 1.07751.3543;

[email protected] 11

Butter AA - CME Average Weekly Price lb

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

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Butter AA- CME Average Weekly Price lb

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 12

Live Cattle - Average Weekly Price USDA - 6 State Average

0.95

1.05

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1.45

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Live Cattle - Average Weekly Price

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 13

USDA Coarse ground 81% Steer & Heifer Source

1.400

1.600

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USDA Coarse ground 81% Steer & Heifer Source

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 14

USDA Live Hogs - Average Weekly Price

0.22

0.27

0.32

0.37

0.42

0.47

0.52

0.57

0.62

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Live Hogs - Average Weekly Price - Iowa/Minnesota

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 15

USDA PM Belly, Derind 9-13# FOB Plant

0.75

0.95

1.15

1.35

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USDA PM Belly, Derind 9-13# FOB Plant

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 16

Chicken - Midwest Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Tender Out

1.02

1.12

1.22

1.32

1.42

1.52

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Midwest Jumbo Boneless/Skinless Breasts Tender Out

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 17

Shell Eggs - White Large, Midwest

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1

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2.5

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Shell Eggs - White Large, Midwest

2018 2017 2016 Average

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[email protected] 18

USDA Weekly Price - Crude Peanut Oil

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55

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65

70

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USDA Weekly Price - Crude Peanut Oil

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Weekly Price - Cash Palm Oil

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

Janu

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Weekly Price - Cash Palm Oil

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Crude Oil - Average Weekly Price - NYMEX

27

32

37

42

47

52

57

62

67

72Ja

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Crude Oil - Average Weekly Price - NYMEX

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Heating Oil - Average Weekly Spot Price - NY Harbour

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220Ja

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Heating Oil - Average Weekly Spot Price - NY Harbour

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Diesel - Average Weekly Highway Price

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340Ja

nuar

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Febr

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April

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Diesel - Average Weekly Highway Price

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Gasoline Unleaded - Average Weekly Highway Price

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

310Ja

nuar

y

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

April

May

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Gasoline - Average Weekly Highway Price

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Natural Gas Futures - New York Mercantile Exchange

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

Janu

ary

Febr

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April

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Natural Gas Futures - New York Mercantile Exchange

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Sugar #16 - New York Board of Trade (ICE)

22

24

26

28

30

32Ja

nuar

y

Febr

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Mar

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April

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Sugar #16 - New York Board of Trade (ICE)

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Orange Juice - (OJ) NYBOT ICE Weekly Price - Dollars per CWT

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00Ja

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y

Febr

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Orange Juice - (OJ) ICE Average Weekly Price

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Coffee - (KC) NYBOT Average Weekly Price - Dollars per Pound

1.0000

1.1000

1.2000

1.3000

1.4000

1.5000

1.6000

1.7000

1.8000

1.9000

2.0000Ja

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Coffee - (KC) NYBOT Average Weekly PriceDollars / Pound

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Euro, EMU Members

1.04

1.06

1.08

1.1

1.12

1.14

1.16

1.18

1.2

1.22

1.24

Janu

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Febr

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Mar

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Euro, EMU MembersFederal Reserve Bank of New York

2018 2017 2016 #REF!

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Canadian Dollar

1.1

1.15

1.2

1.25

1.3

1.35

1.4

1.45

Janu

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Febr

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Mar

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April

May

June July

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Canadian DollarFederal Reserve Bank of New York

2018 2017 2016 Average

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Australian Dollar

0.65

0.67

0.69

0.71

0.73

0.75

0.77

0.79

0.81

0.83

0.85

Janu

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Febr

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Foreign Exchange Rate - Australian DollarFederal Reserve Bank of New York

2018 2017 2016 Average


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