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8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 13
1 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
Key Facts About Florida
Voting DemographicsHow Changing Demographics and DAPA-Affected Voters
Could Impact the 2016 Elections
By Charles Posner and Lizet Ocampo December 11 2015
Te Unied Saes is undergoing a hisoric demographic shif People o color are
expeced o make up a majoriy o he populaion by 2044 bu he poliical implicaionsare already being el1 By 2016 demographic shifs will be influenial in shaping elec-
oral oucomes in many saes including Florida as voers o color become an increas-
ingly significan share o he elecorae
Moreover DAPA-affeced voers991252US ciizens o voing age living wih unauhor-
ized amily members who would be eligible or emporary relie rom deporaion
under Presiden Barack Obamarsquos Deerred Acion or Parens o Americans and Lawul
Permanen Residens or DAPA program991252will comprise sizable and poenially
decisive porions o key and emerging batleground sae elecoraes across he counry
including in Florida
The electoral impacts of a changing elec torate
In Florida voters of color comprise a larger portion of the electorate each year
bull Te whie elecorae dropped rom 81 percen o eligible voers in 1980 o 667 per-
cen in 2012 I is projeced o decrease urher o 645 percen by 20162
bull In 1980 4 percen o eligible voers in he sae were Laino in 2012 166 percen
were By 2016 he Florida elecoraersquos share o Laino eligible voers is expeced o
have increased by anoher 16 percenage poins o 182 percen3
8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 23
2 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
Floridarsquos changing demographics are making it lean more toward Democratsmdash
but it is still a toss-up
bull In 2004 Republican presidenial candidae George W Bush had a 12-percenage-
poin advanage over Democraic candidae John Kerry among Laino voers lead-
ing 56 percen o 44 percen4 In 2012 Democraic candidae Barack Obama won
60 percen o Laino voes while Republican Mit Romney received 39 percen a21-poin margin5
bull I Democras are able o hold ono 2012 levels o suppor rom voers o color
and urnou raes remain he same in 2016 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 1) he
Democraic margin o vicory in Florida could yield a Democraic vicory o 507
percen o Republicansrsquo 488 percen in he presidenial elecion6
bull I voersrsquo pary preerences revered back o wha hey were in 2004 (see Figure 1
2016 Simulaion 2) when Republicans had higher levels o suppor rom voers o
color Republicans would see he presidenial race in Florida swing in heir avor win-ning by 515 percen o 488 percen7
bull I voers o color have pary preerences o 2004 and whie voers have pary
preerences o 2012 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 3) Republicans will perorm
he sronges Te margin o vicory or a Republican candidae would be nearly 9
percenage poins
Source Anna Chu and Charles Posner How the Rising Share of Latino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Elections (Washington Center for AmericanProgress Action Fund 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmigrationreport20151209126852
how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections
FIGURE 1
Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida
Democratic and Republican shares of votes in presidential elections
Democrats
2004
2012
2016 Simulation 1
2016 Simulation 2
2016 Simulation 3
Republicans
47
50
507
488
455
52
49
488
515
541
8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33
3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
The poli tical power of deferred action
In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters
comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate
bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han
59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8
Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant
economic gains for Florida
bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion
were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-
lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more
han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9
Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund
Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of
changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate
In 2016 there will be
more than 59000
DAPA-affected voter
in Florida
Endnotes
1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change
2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060
3 Ibid
4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)
5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)
6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections
7 Ibid
8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters
9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion
8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 23
2 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
Floridarsquos changing demographics are making it lean more toward Democratsmdash
but it is still a toss-up
bull In 2004 Republican presidenial candidae George W Bush had a 12-percenage-
poin advanage over Democraic candidae John Kerry among Laino voers lead-
ing 56 percen o 44 percen4 In 2012 Democraic candidae Barack Obama won
60 percen o Laino voes while Republican Mit Romney received 39 percen a21-poin margin5
bull I Democras are able o hold ono 2012 levels o suppor rom voers o color
and urnou raes remain he same in 2016 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 1) he
Democraic margin o vicory in Florida could yield a Democraic vicory o 507
percen o Republicansrsquo 488 percen in he presidenial elecion6
bull I voersrsquo pary preerences revered back o wha hey were in 2004 (see Figure 1
2016 Simulaion 2) when Republicans had higher levels o suppor rom voers o
color Republicans would see he presidenial race in Florida swing in heir avor win-ning by 515 percen o 488 percen7
bull I voers o color have pary preerences o 2004 and whie voers have pary
preerences o 2012 (see Figure 1 2016 Simulaion 3) Republicans will perorm
he sronges Te margin o vicory or a Republican candidae would be nearly 9
percenage poins
Source Anna Chu and Charles Posner How the Rising Share of Latino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Elections (Washington Center for AmericanProgress Action Fund 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmigrationreport20151209126852
how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections
FIGURE 1
Electoral impact of demographic changes in Florida
Democratic and Republican shares of votes in presidential elections
Democrats
2004
2012
2016 Simulation 1
2016 Simulation 2
2016 Simulation 3
Republicans
47
50
507
488
455
52
49
488
515
541
8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33
3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
The poli tical power of deferred action
In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters
comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate
bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han
59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8
Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant
economic gains for Florida
bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion
were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-
lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more
han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9
Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund
Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of
changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate
In 2016 there will be
more than 59000
DAPA-affected voter
in Florida
Endnotes
1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change
2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060
3 Ibid
4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)
5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)
6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections
7 Ibid
8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters
9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion
8202019 Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
httpslidepdfcomreaderfullkey-facts-about-florida-voting-demographics 33
3 Center for American Progress Action Fund | Key Facts About Florida Voting Demographics
The poli tical power of deferred action
In addition to the overall demographic shifts in Florida DAPA-affected voters
comprise a significant proportion of the statersquos electorate
bull In 2016 Florida voers who are personally affeced by DAPA will number more han
59000 Te projeced number o Floridarsquos DAPA-affeced voers in 2016 is 80 perceno Presiden Obamarsquos 2012 margin o vicory in he sae8
Full implementation of the deferred action initiatives would result in significant
economic gains for Florida
bull I DAPA Deerred Acion or Childhood Arrivals or DACA and DACA expansion
were all implemened Floridarsquos gross domesic produc would increase by $94 bil-
lion Florida residensrsquo cumulaive incomes would increase by $62 billion and more
han 11000 jobs would be creaed all cumulaively over 10 years9
Charles Posner is the Policy Manager at the Center for American Progress Action Fund
Lizet Ocampo is the Associate Director of Immigration at the Action Fund
Correction December 15 2015 Tis fact sheet has been updated to clarify the effect of
changing demographics on Floridarsquos voting electorate
In 2016 there will be
more than 59000
DAPA-affected voter
in Florida
Endnotes
1 Ruy Teixeira William H Frey and Rob Griffin ldquoStates ofChange The Demographic Evolution of the American Elec-torate 1974ndash2060rdquo (Washington Center for American Prog-ress Brookings Institution and American Enterprise Insti-tute 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementreport20150224107261states-of-change
2 Rob Griffin William H Frey and Ruy Teixeira ldquoInteractive The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate1980ndash2060rdquo Center for Americ an Progress February 242015 available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesprogressive-movementnews20150224107166interactive-the-demographic-evolution-of-the-american-electorate-1980-2060
3 Ibid
4 NBC News ldquoExit Poll - Decision 2004 - Exit poll - presidentFloridardquo available at httpwwwnbcnewscomid5297152 (last accessed December 2015)
5 Florida exit poll data from CNN ldquoAmericarsquos Choice 2012Election Center President Floridardquo available at httpwwwcnncomelection2012resultsstateFLpresident (lastaccessed December 2015)
6 Anna Chu and Charles Posner ldquoHow the Rising Share ofLatino Voters Will Impact the 2016 Electionsrdquo (WashingtonCenter for American Progress Action Fund 2015) availableat httpswwwamericanprogressactionorgissuesimmi-grationreport20151209126852how-the-rising-share-of-latino-voters-will-impact-the-2016-elections
7 Ibid
8 Manuel Pastor Tom Jawetz and Lizet Ocampo ldquoDAPA Mat-ters The Growing Electorate Directly Affected by ExecutiveAction on I mmigrationrdquo (Washington Center for AmericanProgress 2015) available at httpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationreport20151119125787dapa-matters
9 Silva Mathema ldquoInteractive State-by-State Analysis of theEconomic Impact of DACA DAPA and DACA ExpansionrdquoCenter for American Progress June 15 2015 available athttpswwwamericanprogressorgissuesimmigrationnews20150615114894state-by-state-analysis-of-the-economic-impact-of-daca-dapa-and-daca -expansion