Key findings and draft results from scenario forecasting
Jonty HaynesEnergy AnalystRegen
Agenda
Methodology and framework
- Modelling framework
- Forecasting
- Distribution
Draft results
- Gas for heat
- Gas for power
- Alternative vehicles
- Green gas supply
Carbon position
Analysis methodology and framework
Modelling the gas networkCategory Factor Element of Projection Projection Units
Sources of demand
Domestic heat demand
Properties Number (#)Annual heat demand Energy (kWh)
Heat delivery technologyProportion (%)Efficiency (%)
Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)
Commercial & industrial heat
Premises Number (#)Annual heat demand Energy (kWh)
Heat delivery technologyProportion (%)Efficiency (%)
Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)
Gas fired power generation
Sites Number (#)Power capacity Power (MWe)Annual energy generation Energy (kWh)Conversion efficiency Efficiency (%)Annual gas demand Energy (kWh)
Industrial processes (+/- SMR)Premises Number (#)Annual gas demand Energy (kWh)
Gas fuelled vehiclesVehicles Number (#)Annual fuel demand Energy (kWh)
Electric Vehicles (EVs)
Vehicles Number (#)EV charging stations Number (#)Power capacity Power (MWe)Annual demand Energy (kWh)
Alternative sources of supply
Green gas injection
Gas injection sites Number (#)Gas injection capacity Capacity (scm/h)Annual green gas entry Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas Proportion (%)
Hydrogen blendingAnnual hydrogen energy Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas demand Proportion (%)
Unconventional natural gas (coal
bed methane, shale gas)
Sites Number (#)Capacity Capacity (scm/h)Annual uncon gas entry Energy (kWh)Proportion of gas Proportion (%)
Methodology and framework
Forecasting process
Baseline Pipeline Projections Distribution
Baseline & Pipeline - Data & Evidence
• Connection and spatial data
• Gas fired generation register
• Biomethane site register
• New developments tracker
• CRM enquiry information
• Existing SW regional models
• SW gas fired power projections
• EV uptake modelling outputs
• Anaerobic Digestion projections
• Sub-national consumption data
• Renewable Heat Incentive data
• Heat networks delivery unit
• Feed in Tariff data
Baseline Pipeline Projections Distribution
Projection resources
Baseline Pipeline Projections Distribution
Distribution to GSAs
Baseline Pipeline Projections Distribution
Characterisation of GSAs•Each GSA is characterised
by up to ten relevantattributes for each analysis•Projections for the SW LDZ
are distributed down to 63GSAs•Granularity allows results
to be assessed to GSA, localauthority and linepack zonelevels
Green gas distribution, 2035
Draft results
Gas for heat - domestic
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Heat and fuel demand
Properties
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat demand – domestic
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat demand – domestic
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat delivery – domestic gas boilers
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat delivery – domestic ASHPs
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat delivery – domestic gas HHPs
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat delivery – domestic oil boilers
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Draft Results
Heat delivery – distribution
GSA factors used to inform distribution
•Existing baseline
•On-gas / off-gas proportions
•Urban / rural proportions
•House type breakdown – detached/semi-detached, flats, terraced
•Housing stock heat demand
•Tenure – home ownership, social rented etc.
•Affluence
Draft Results
Heat delivery – distribution, Bristol
Draft Results
Heat delivery – distribution, Cornwall
Draft Results
Heat-to-fuel conversion
Number of properties
Heat demand per property
Heat delivery technology
Heat-to-fuel conversion
• Conversion efficiency of each heating technology
• Improvements over time in every scenario as technologies improve and older stock is replaced
• Consideration of distribution losses for heat networks
Draft Results
Gas for heat – non-domestic
Commercial• Similar to domestic methodology
• Different baseline, around 50% of properties heated by gas boilers
• Different drivers and assumptions for heat demand and heat technology projections
Industrial• Significantly different to domestic and commercial, majority of heat delivered for processes rather than space and water heating
• Heat demand reduction based around reducing losses / heat recovery from process heat
• Harder to decarbonise and fewer alternative technologies, especially for higher temperature processes
Draft Results
Gas for power - baseline
South West Gas Fired Generation:• 13 sites operational across the SW LDZ• 305MWe installed capacity (average 23MW)• 36% OCGT/CCGT and 64% Recip. Engines• Interpolated 536GWh annual gas usage (2018)• Estimated 217GWh annual generation (2018)
Draft Results
Gas for power - pipeline
South West Gas Fired Generation Pipeline:•35 sites in near-term pipeline•347MWe capacity (average 10MWe)•All new projects reciprocating engines
Pipeline assessed for:•Planning applications / activity•Activity in the Capacity Market T1 & T4 auctions•Categorised as coming online or not and when, across 5 scenarios
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025
Community Renewables
305 MW
432 MW 611 MW
Two Degrees 395 MW 462 MW
Hybrid Accelerator 432 MW 520 MW
Consumer Evolution 432 MW 611 MW
Steady Progression 305 MW 462 MW
Draft Results
Gas for power - projections
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
305 MW
432 MW 611 MW 591 MW 556 MW
Two Degrees 395 MW 462 MW 437 MW 395 MW
Hybrid Accelerator 432 MW 520 MW 477 MW 429 MW
Consumer Evolution 432 MW 611 MW 637 MW 659 MW
Steady Progression 305 MW 462 MW 380 MW 277 MW
Draft Results
Gas for power – capacity factors
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
2.5%
2.4% 3% 1.2% 0.7%
Two Degrees 2.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
Hybrid Accelerator 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4%
Consumer Evolution 2.4% 2.9% 3.4% 1.6%
Steady Progression 2.4% 2.9% 2.6% 1.3%
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
12%
12% 12% 9% 7%
Two Degrees 14% 20% 20% 22%
Hybrid Accelerator 13% 16% 15% 15%
Consumer Evolution 13% 13% 10% 9%
Steady Progression 14% 19% 20% 20%
OCGT/CCGT
Reciprocating Engines
Draft Results
Demand for gas for power
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
536 GWh
1,009 GWh 1,374 GWh 959 GWh 810 GWh
Two Degrees 938 GWh 1,375 GWh 1,228 GWh 1,123 GWh
Hybrid Accelerator 1,072 GWh 1,313 GWh 1,183 GWh 1,118 GWh
Consumer Evolution 1,026 GWh 1,475 GWh 1,144 GWh 1,009 GWh
Steady Progression 638 GWh 1,400 GWh 1,139 GWh 933 GWh
Draft Results
Gas for power - distribution
Factors•Baseline and pipeline•Urban areas•Gas network proximity•Electricity network proximity
Draft Results
Gas vehicles in WWU SW
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
480
1432 4361 8303 13997
Two Degrees 1473 4628 8920 15031
Hybrid Accelerator 1453 4495 8612 14514
Consumer Evolution 959 2367 3913 5589
Steady Progression 977 2367 3914 5590
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
43
76 288 1047 3396
Two Degrees 75 287 1050 3461
Hybrid Accelerator 76 288 1049 3429
Consumer Evolution 68 210 629 1720
Steady Progression 68 198 627 1707
Gas and hydrogen HGVs
Gas and hydrogen buses
Draft Results
Gas vehicles distribution in WWU SW
Factors•Baseline sites•HGV registration data•HGV mileage data•Major road network•Gas network proximityDraft Results
Electric vehicles in WWU SW
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
19,196
88,805 385,324 1,037,817 2,198,153
Two Degrees 78,023 336,562 986,496 2,163,712
Hybrid Accelerator 83,414 360,943 1,012,157 2,180,933
Consumer Evolution 33,515 100,977 284,659 767,102
Steady Progression 33,198 100,814 290,883 789,251
Scenario Baseline 2018 By 2020 By 2025 By 2030 By 2035
Community Renewables
18,593
99,709 616,735 1,830,122 4,076,485
Two Degrees 91,298 546,515 1,759,283 4,028,775
Hybrid Accelerator 95,504 581,625 1,794,703 4,052,630
Consumer Evolution 37,032 148,738 505,346 1,441,231
Steady Progression 37,189 150,922 520,727 1,487,553
Electric vehicles, pure and hybrid
Electric vehicle energy demand (MWh)
Draft Results
Green gas supply – baseline & pipeline
Baseline Pipeline
18 sites (13 currently injecting)16,450 scm/h capacityPredominantly farms, some sewage and waste
8 sites with booked connections6,300 scm/h capacityAlmost all farmsScenario-based delays in connection date
Draft Results
Green gas supply - projections
Projections
Between 242% and 542% increase in green gas by volume by 2035Represents between ~5% and ~15% of the WWU SW LDZ supply in 2035Based on a Cadent feedstock availability study, between 5.3% and 10.0% of England’s biomethane from AD resourceConsiders increasing food waste collection by 2023, FES proportional year-by-year increase of green gas, existing baseline and pipeline
Draft Results
Green gas supply - projections
Projections
Between 242% and 542% increase in green gas by volume by 2035Represents between ~5% and ~15% of the WWU SW LDZ supply in 2035Based on a Cadent feedstock availability study, between 5.3% and 10.0% of England’s biomethane from AD resourceConsiders mandatory food waste collection by 2023, FES proportional year-by-year increase of green gas, existing baseline and pipeline
Draft Results
Green gas supply - distribution
Factors•Baseline and pipeline•Population centres (waste)•Agricultural land (energy crops)•Gas network•LPZ demand
Draft Results
Alternative gas supply - hydrogen
100% hydrogen networks• Not projected to occur within the WWU SW LDZ, within the timeframe of 2018-2035
• H21 project suggests beginning conversion of Bristol in 2036/37
Hydrogen blending• No blended hydrogen in any of the four FES scenarios
• Current allowable blending proportions are extremely low
• Must be below 20% by volume (6% by energy) for compatibility with current household appliances and distribution network
• Allowable volume blend for gas-fired power generation is even lower
• Production: SMR with CCUS, or electrolysis?
• Considered in the ‘Hybrid Accelerator’ scenario
Draft Results
Carbon positionDraft Results
Carbon emissions – domestic heat
Carbon calculation factors – domestic heat
• Number of each heating technology• Falling heat demand per household• Increasing efficiency of heating technologies• Falling carbon intensity of grid electricity• Falling carbon intensity of mains gas
Draft Results