Key Findings and Long-Term Issues - NERC Highlights and Minutes/It… · Key Findings and Long-Term...

Long-Term Reliability Assessment Key Findings and Long-Term Issues

John Moura, Director of Reliability Assessment

2 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY

Topics Covered Today

• Background on NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment

• Emerging and Long-Term Reliability Issues

• Highlights and Key Findings from 10-Year Projections

• Resource Adequacy Assessments

– Reserve Margins

– Probabilistic Indices


Background

• Peak demand forecasts

• Resource adequacy

• Transmission adequacy

• Key issues and emerging trends impacting reliability

Technical challenges

Evolving market practices

Potential legislation/regulation

• Regional self-assessment

• Ad-hoc special Assessments


Reliability Assessment Timeline

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

LTRA Data

Request

Open

Workshop

PC Comment &

Endorsement BOT Approval

Publish LTRA

RAS Peer

Review

NERC

Management

Review

MRC Review

& Comment Oct Apr May Jun

BOT Approval

Publish

Summer

Assessment

RAS

Peer

Review

NERC

Management

Review

MRC Review &

Comment

Data

Receive

Summer

Assessment Data

Request

PC Endorsement

BOT Approval

MRC Review &

Comment

PC Endorsement

NERC

Management

Review

RAS

Peer

Review Data

Receive

Winter Assessment

Data Request

Jun Oct Nov Dec

Publish

Winter

Assessment

Publish

Winter

Assessment

5 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY

Assessment Areas

Assessment Areas based on planning and operating functions

6 RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY

Long-Term Reliability Issues

• Change in Resource Mix Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements: Capacity and Security Issues

Increasing Variable Generation: Planning and Operating Challenges

Demand-Side Management: Demand Response and Energy Efficiency

Transmission Needs: Siting and Permitting, Alignment with Generation

• Environmental Regulations Air, Water, and Waste Regulations

Potential C02 Regulations

Other RPS requirements

• Potential Operational Risks Associated with Interaction of Special Protection Schemes/Remedial Action Schemes

• Global Supply Chains and Fuel Reliability

• Assessment of Fault-Induced Delayed Voltage Recovery (FIDVR)

• Aging Infrastructure

• Coordinated Cyber / Physical Attacks on Critical Infrastructure*


Key Finding: Fossil-Fired Generation Retirements

Significant Fossil-Fired Generator Retirements Over Next Five Years

• Cumulative retirements between 2012 and 2022

• Slightly larger impacts than our 2011 generator retirement study

6 13

18 23

37 42 42 43 43 44 44 45

1

4

5

9

12

22 23 24 25 25 26

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gig

aw

att

s (

GW

)

Confirmed Unconfirmed



0

5

10

15

20

25

GW

2022 Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements

• Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions




1.6%

6.2%

11.0%

13.1%

1.7%

6.0%

1.7%

11.9%

5.1% 5.1% 4.8%

0

5

10

15

20

25

GW

2022 Confirmed Retirements 2022 Projected Retirements Percentage of 2013 Anticipated Resources (Peak Season)

• Assessment Area view reveals high-impact regions

• MISO, MRO-SaskPower, PJM projected to retire over 10% of all capacity resources



Key Finding: Generation Retrofits

Long-Term Generator Maintenance Outages for Environmental Retrofits Can Impact Reliability During “Shoulder Months”

59

34

21 20

8 6 5 4 1 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

GW

Confirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW) Unconfirmed - Total Peak Capacity (MW)

NERC Total: 158,434 MW, 339 Electric Generation Units

Note: Unconfirmed retrofit outages include projections of 316(b) of the Clean Water Act compliance activities


Key Finding: Natural Gas Dependency

Increased Dependence on Natural Gas for Electricity Generation

47%

48%

49%

50%

51%

52%

53%

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 % G

as C

apac

ity

Co

mp

ared

to

To

tal I

nte

rnal

D

eman

d

GW

Conceptual Future-Planned % Gas Capacity


Key Finding: Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gig

aw

att

s (

GW

)

Projected Coal/Oil Capacity Net Reductions: -35 GW

Projected Gas-Fired Capacity: +40 GW

Unconfirmed Coal/Oil Capacity Retirements : -25.7 GW

Coal-to-Gas Fuel Switching in Progress and Continues in the 10-year Horizon


Key Finding: Increase in Renewables

Renewables Represent Largest Growth of Installed Capacity Introducing New System Planning and Operational Challenges

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gig

awat

ts (

GW

)

Growth in Expected On-Peak

Capacity

Hydro

Pumped Storage

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

Solar


Accommodating High-Levels of Variable Generation

Reliably integrating these resources into the bulk power system will require significant changes to traditional methods used for system

planning and operation

Forecasting

• Variable Fuels Must Be Used When Available

• Forecast is only information; operator must make informed decisions

• “It’s the ramps, not the ripples”

• Methods for calculating expected on-peak capacity

Flexibility

• More Ancillary Services

• Larger Balancing Authorities

• Flexible Resources

• Storage

• PHEV

• Leverage fuel diversity of other variable resources

Transmission

• Interconnect variable energy resources in remote areas

• Construct/site/permit transmission to deliver power across long distances


• Completed Tasks – 1-1 Standards Models of Variable Generation

– 1-2 Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy Planning

– 1-4 Flexibility Requirements and Metrics for Variable Generation

– 1-5 Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources

– 1-8 Reliability Impacts of Distributed Resource

– 2-1 Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations

– 2-3 Ancillary Services and BA Solutions

– 2-4 Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools

IVGTF - Completed Steps


Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

ANTICIPATED PROSPECTIVE ADJUSTED POTENTIAL NERC REFERENCE

Increased Risk of Capacity Deficiencies in ERCOT; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins


Key Finding: Resource Challenges in Texas

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

GW

Anticipated Capacity Resources Peak Demand

2.35% Peak Demand Annual Growth Rate

ERCOT has a High Risk of Capacity Deficiencies; More Resources are Quickly Needed to Minimize Risk of Firm Load Shedding and Increase Reserve Margins


Key Finding: Demand-Side Management

840850860870880890900910920930940950960970980990

1,0001,0101,0201,030

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Gig

awat

ts (

GW

)

DR (Load-Modifying) DR (Resource) Energy Efficiency Net Internal Demand Total Internal Demand

• Total Internal Demand to increase by 113,000 MW• Demand Response increases by 26,000 MW• Energy Efficiency increase by 13,800 MW

• DSM offsets 6 years of growth

• Total Internal Demand to increase by 113 GW • Demand Response increases by 26 GW to 61 GW • Energy Efficiency increase by 20 GW

Significant Increases in Demand‐Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators


Key Finding: Demand-Side Management

Significant Increases in Demand‐Side Management Continue to Offset Future Resource Needs while Providing More Flexibility for System Operators

7.0% 7.5% 8.7%

11.6%

7.1% 8.0%

4.0% 4.6%

3.0% 2.9%

7.0% 7.0%

1.9% 2.2% 2.2% 2.7% 3.9% 3.5%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022 2013 2022

PJM MISO NPCC SERC WECC FRCC ERCOT SPP MRO

Me

ga

wa

tts (

MW

)

Total Peak Demand Response (Supply and Demand-Side) Percent of Total Internal Demand


Key Finding: Transmission

Overall Growth of Transmission Infrastructure Responding to Increased Plans to Integrate and Deliver New Resources

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000

90-94 91-95 92-96 93-97 94-98 95-99 96-00 97-01 98-02 99-03 00-04 01-05 02-06 03-07 04-08 05-09 06-10 07-11 08-12 09-13 10-14 11-15 12-16

Cir

cuit

Mile

s

5 Year Outlook Actual Miles Added Over 5-Year Period

Historical average of transmission built within any given consecutive 5-

year period between 1990 and 2012 is

approximately 7,000 miles

Industry continues to meet higher-than-average 5-year plans


Key Finding: Resources Generally Sufficient

-5% 0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%

Anticipated Prospective Adjusted Potential NERC Reference Margin Level

In Most Areas, Resources are Sufficient to Meet Reliability Targets; Some Uncertainties Remain in the Latter Years of the Assessment Period

2022


Probabilistic Indices: A Next Step for the LTRA

NEW ENGLAND

Report 2010 Report 2012 Report

2011 2014 2014 2016

LTRA Anticipated Reserve Margin 18.8% 21.6% 30.8% 21.2%

Prospective Reserve Margin 20.0% 22.6% 30.8% 21.2%

ProbA

Forecast Planning Res. Margin 10.9% 12.2% 21.9% 13.1%

Adjusted Planning Res. Margin 30.5% 21.0%

EUE (MWh) 63.40 1.50 0.80 6.70

EUE (ppm) 0.45 0.01 0.01 0.04

LOLH (hours/year) 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.01

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2011 2014 2014 2016

2010 Report 2012 Report

LTRA Anticipated Reserve MarginLTRA Prospective Reserve MarginProbA Adjusted Planning Res. Margin

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

2011 2014 2014 2016

2010 Report 2012 Report

MW

h/T

Wh

ho

urs

/ye

ar

LOLH (hours/year) EUE (ppm)


Next Steps

• 2013 Long-Term Reliability Assessment is in Development – Preliminary Data and Information has been submitted to NERC

• Launching the Long-Term Reliability Issues Survey and Risk Assessment (July) – Tool for “crowd sourcing” SMEs across NERC’s Planning and Operating

Technical Committees

– Identify key insights on long-term challenges from stakeholders

– Informs NERC of focus areas for LTRA, as well as follow-on special assessments, task force formation, risk priorities for RISC.

• Technical Committee Review (September)

• Report Published (November)

Questions?


Existing Reports and Background

• Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation, http://www.nerc.com/files/Special%20Report%20-

%20Accommodating%20High%20Levels%20of%20Variable%20Generation.pdf

• Standard Models for Variable Generation

http://www.nerc.com/files/Standards%20Models%20for%20Variable%20Generation.pdf

• Flexibility Requirements and Potential Metrics for Variable Generation,

http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF_Task_1_4_Final.pdf

• Potential Reliability Impacts of Emerging Flexible Resources,


• Variable Generation Power Forecasting for Operations,

http://www.nerc.com/files/Varialbe%20Generationn%20Power%20Forecasting%20for%20Operations.pdf

• Methods to Model and Calculate Capacity Contributions of Variable Generation for Resource Adequacy

Planning, http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF1-2.pdf

• Ancillary Service and Balancing Authority Area Solutions to Integrate Variable Generation,

http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF2-3.pdf

• Operating Practices, Procedures, and Tools, http://www.nerc.com/files/IVGTF2-4.pdf

• Interconnection Requirements for Variable Generation:

http://www.nerc.com/files/2012_IVGTF_Task_1-3.pdf

• Reliability Standards for the Bulk Electric Systems of North America,

http://www.nerc.com/files/Reliability_Standards_Complete_Set.pdf

http://www.nerc.com/files/Special Report - Accommodating High Levels of Variable Generation.pdf



http://www.nerc.com/files/Standards Models for Variable Generation.pdf



http://www.nerc.com/files/Varialbe Generationn Power Forecasting for Operations.pdf













http://www.nerc.com/files/Reliability_Standards_Complete_Set.pdf

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