Key Trends in the Washington Region:Shifting Fundamentals and Headline-Makers
Jeannette ChapmanDeputy Director and Senior Research Associate
Stephen S. Fuller InstituteSchar School of Policy and Government
George Mason University
January 31, 2019
IREM 2019 Industry Forecast & Trade Show
Washington Region:Major Trends
1. Fundamentals:• Improving mix of jobs•Aging population & workforce•Aging business cycle
2. Headline-makers:•Federal disruptions•Amazon
1. Improving Mix of Job Growth
117.1
41.1
8.7
55.070.5 64.2
51.6
24.0 13.0
-50.8
11.1
42.9 39.227.6
17.2
55.7 59.2 50.9 52.1
(60.0) (40.0) (20.0)
- 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0
100.0 120.0 140.0
2000-2017 Avg: +38,790
Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2018 (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Preliminary
0.5
-1.6
8.5
3.0 3.80.9 1.4
-0.4
6.7
12.8
18.9
2.4
-4.4 -5.0
-10.7
1.9 3.5
-0.1
-5.7
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Federal Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2018 (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Preliminary
25.713.8 12.7 16.4 17.4 19.2 20.1
(10.0) -
10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0
Private, Office-Using All Other
Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2018 (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Preliminary
2007-2014: +15,650 Office-Using
0.80.2
3.30.6
2.25.3
2.52.5
9.17.2
-5.78.2
16.0
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
ManufacturingWholesale Trade
Transportation & UtilitiesInformation Services
Financial ActivitiesConstruction
Other ServicesRetail Trade
Leisure & HospitalityState & Local Govt
Federal GovtEducation & Health Services
Professional & Business Services
Washington MSA Job Change by Sector 2017 - 2018
Ranked by Size in 2017 (000s) Total = 52,100
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2. Aging Population and Workforce
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
U.S.
Washington Region & U.S.Share of Population Aged 55+
1980 – 2017 – 2026
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (1980 & 1990 Decennial Census, 2000-2010 Intercensal & v17 Population Estimates); U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsThe Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU NOTE: Population 15+ (WMSA) or civilian, non-institutional population, aged 16+ (US)
Washington Region
0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%
100.0%
16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90+
Male Female
Labor Force Participation Rates by AgeWashington Region, 2014-2016 Average
Sources: 2014, 2015, 2016 ACS Microdata (Average); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
55
65%66%67%68%69%70%71%72%73%74%75%
Forecast
Labor Force Participation RateWashington Region, 1997-2027
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; U.S. Census (2014-2016 ACS); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
2.5% 2.5%2.3%
1.6%1.8%
1.7%1.4%
2.3%1.9%
1.8%
1.1% 1.2%
2.0%
1.7% 1.5%
1.0%1.1%
1.4%1.1% 1.1% 1.0%
0.8% 0.7% 0.8%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2010-2011
2011-2012
2012-2013
2013-2014
2014-2015
2015-2016
2016-2017
D.C.
NorthernVirginiaWashingtonRegionSuburbanMaryland
Population Growth by Sub-State AreaWashington Region, 2010 to 2017
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (v2017 Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3.1%
2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2%
1.5% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.0%0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
0.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
US: +1.3%
Percent Change in 25-34 Years OldsLargest 15 Metros, 2016 - 2017
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (Vintage 2017 &2000-2010 Intercensal Population Estimates); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
3. Aging Business Cycle
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2018 – 2022
(Annual % Change)(%)
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit (January 2019), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMUForecast as of January 2019
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Washington
U.S.
U.S. GDP and Washington MSA GRP 2007 – 2018 – 2022
(Annual % Change)(%)
Forecast
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Markit (January 2019), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMUForecast as of January 2019
5. Federal Government Disruptions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
VA
MD
DC
Shutdown
Initial Claims for Unemployment by State
Sources: U.S. Department of Labor, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
(000s)
The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy
Local Serving Activities
38.0%
Non-Local Serving
Business15.5%
Other Federal
9.4%
Fed Wages & Salaries
7.4%
Procurement14.1%
Total Federal30.9%
Local Serving Activities
39.3%
Non-Local Serving
Business18.5% Total
Federal26.5%
Health/Ed5.5%
Other Federal7.8% Fed Wages &
Salaries6.2%
Procurement12.5%
2018 2030
Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 2019
6. Amazon
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Washington MSA
Seattle MSA
Density by Metro Area: Jobs Per Land Square Mile
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
400
1,180
1,964
1,439
2,6652,352
1,643
2,207
3,000 3,000
2,305
3,595
2,100
3,900
3,100 3,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000Phase II:12,850
Phase I:25,000
HQ2 Employment Schedule
Sources: Commonwealth of Virginia MOU; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
8.7
55.070.5 64.2
51.6
24.013.0
-50.8
11.1
42.9 39.227.6
17.2
55.7 59.250.9 52.2
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0 HQ2 Avg: +2,366 over 16 years( = 7% of 2002-2017 net change)
Job Change in the Washington Region2000 – 2018 (in thousands)
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*First ten months
Amazon-Related Renters in Select Jurisdictions Assumes 37,850 HQ2 jobs, includes indirect & induced effects
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau (2016 ACS Microdata); The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU*Includes the cities of Fairfax and Falls Church ** Includes the cities of Manassas and Manassas Park
Renters at Full Build-Out
Renters in 2016
Total % Increasefrom 2016
VirginiaArlington County 4,792 57,133 8.4%Alexandria City 1,528 41,808 3.7%Fairfax County* 4,893 134,425 3.6%Prince William County** 1,087 49,891 2.2%Loudoun County 716 25,552 2.8%
D.C. 2,968 169,875 1.7%Maryland
Montgomery County 625 132,098 0.5%Prince George's County 396 121,333 0.3%
The Economic Outlook
Employment Change by Sub-State Area(000s)
Source: BLS, IHS Economics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU (forecast as of January 2019)NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.; Sub-state areas re-weighted to sum to region-wide total *Preliminary
Average Annual Change 2000-2017 = 38,800
2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019 2020 2021 2022
D.C. 15.7 14.5 8.9 6.9 4.6 5.0 4.2 5.2
Sub. MD 10.5 14.2 15.2 13.9 11.0 9.1 7.1 9.3
No. VA 29.5 30.6 26.8 31.3 22.3 17.6 16.0 17.5
REGION 55.7 59.2 50.9 52.1 38.2 31.8 27.4 32.1
4.8%
5.4%
36.3%
-1.7%
3.6%
7.4%
12.0%
0.1%
5.2%
27.8%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Information Services
Financial Activities
Construction
Other Services
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hospitality
State & Local Govt
Federal Govt
Edu. & Health Services
Prof. & Business Services
All Jobs: +11.4%
Job Change in the Washington Region Select Sectors: 2018 - 2030
Source: IHS Economics; The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU
Thank YouFor monthly reports on the
Washington region’s economic performance go to
sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu@FullerInstitute
