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Redistricting Technology By Kimball Brace Election Data Services, Inc.
Redistricting Technology
By Kimball BraceElection Data Services, Inc.
Legislators – Raise you handsKeep them raised if you were in Legislature in 2000?
Staff – Raise you handsKeep them raised if you were involved in redistricting
in 2001?
Cameras do not make the pictures,
Photographers do
What does Photography have to do with Redistricting?
“Computers are just a tool.”
George Meier
Staff Director,
Florida House Redistricting Cmte.
“Software can’t create a plan,
Humans do”
A wise man once said:
History of Redistricting Technology• 1980
− Mainframe• PC’s were not invented until 1981
− Paper Maps• GIS was mainframe only• First PC GIS system created in 1983
− Developed by Jimmy Carter’s son− Blocks in urban areas
• (provided block numbers didn’t fall off map)• Enumeration Districts in rural areas
− Best commodities:• Large wall space• Lots of acetate
− Had to wait overnight to see impact of plan drafting
− Software cost: $60-100K− Created 10s of plans during legislative session
History of Redistricting Technology• 1990
− Mini-computers and limited PCs• GDT’s GeoDistrict Program
− First spatial spreadsheet• Illinois – wired together two PCs to get a 25mhz system
large enough to show entire state− First TIGER files used
• Came out in 1989• Tied together the urban DIME files with USGS data in rural
areas• Had block level data for entire nation, first time
− Best commodities:• Large plotters
− No longer needed color pencils• Got to see color concentrations on computer
− Red areas vs blue areas− Minority concentration
• Lead to crazy looking district shapes− Got immediate (dependent upon processing speed)
response of district characteristics− Software cost $10K− Created 100s of plans during legislative session
History of Redistricting Technology• 2000
− PCs widely used• Current software creators got their start in redistricting
− Caliper – Maptitude for Redistricting− Digital Engineering Corp
• Now “citygategis” -- autoBound− TIGER files still in use− Databases got bigger
• Multi-race categories ballooned race data from 12 columns in 1990 to 336 in 2000
• More election results• SF1 & 3 files came out quicker, added demographic
characteristics− Hispanic sub-groups− Citizenship
− Best Commodities:• Hard disk space
− Thank heavens if was getting cheaper• Colorization of political data
− Lead to crazy looking districts for political purposes− Very quick response on district characteristics− Software cost: $3K− Created ~1000s plans during legislative session
History of Redistricting Technology• 2010
− PCs and networked GIS?• Fast speed of getting graphic images to monitor• Smaller devices to see maps
− Revise your glasses prescription now • Same two vendors
− TIGER files• Adjusted for ground truth
− Allows for aerial photographs to be used as background• Members finally see “that church on the corner”
• States can put in real precincts, no longer have to follow block boundaries
− Databases more complex• Statewide voter registration files• Election process changing as more absentee & early
votes being cast• Census ACS data can add more demographics sooner
− New ways to determine “communities of Interest”− How to Deal with 1, 3, & 5 year averages?
History of Redistricting Technology2010
− Best Commodities• People• Support• ?
− Response time for district characteristics
• ?− Software costs – early indications:
~$10K• Inflation• Vendors realized more support needed
− How many plans will we create?• Heaven help us all
Lessons Learned …. The Hard Way
• Don't design and build the plane as it's rolling down the runway.
• Start planning now.• The sooner you get behind, the
longer you have to catch-up• An error here, can sink your whole
ship• Database building -- Most
important activity of whole process
Census Political
TIGER/Line® Files
Precinct and
Electoral District
Boundaries
Redistricting Summary
(PL 94-171) & ACS Files
Election Returns
and Voting Statistics
Tabular
Spatial
Redistricting Data Cube
© Election Data Services, Inc.
Source of data
Type
of
Dat
a
New TIGER problems
Election Returns Issues• Change in precinct configurations
over decade• Impact of voting equipment purchases
on precinct configurations− Dramatic reduction in number of
precincts− Will you have enough returns for
area?• Impact of “vote centers” on return
data− Don’t make Colorado’s mistake
before they changed their law to require data reported by precinct.
Data Possibilities
• Availability of Statewide Voter Registration files−Geo-code down to
block.•Accuracy, Everyone
placed?− Is state archiving a copy
of file to correspond with election day?
Turn-out
• Still don’t know total number of people who participated in 2004 general election.− Definitions of turn-out,
ballots cast, ballots counted.
903 Jurisdictions in 21 states
have same number of people turning out,
as that voted for President of the US
Returns Issue• How is this data being reported in
your state?− Do your counties report all absentee
and/or early votes in a single county-wide precinct?
− Or− Do they distribute the votes out to the
precincts?
− You want the latter.
Closing• Learn from History
− “If I’m going to make a mistake, let it be an original one.
− I haven’t learned anything if I make the same error that someone else already made”
− Marie Garber− Montgomery County, Md Elections Director
Thank you
Kimball BracePresident
Election Data Services, Inc.6171 Emerywood Court
Manassas, VA 20112(703-580-7267 or 202-789-2004)
[email protected] or [email protected]
www.electiondataservices.com
