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Kivi Niria jaarcongres, 23 november 2011 Transatlantic Academy 12 January 2012 Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty - Some Lessons for Effective Resource Policies Stephan Slingerland
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Kivi Niria jaarcongres,23 november 2011Transatlantic Academy12 January 2012
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty - Some Lessons for Effective Resource Policies
Stephan Slingerland
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
2
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
3
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
A different discussion
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
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3 Lessons for effective resource policies
A different discussion
Transparent goals and interactions
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
5
3 Lessons for effective resource policies
A different discussion
Transparent goals and interactions
A balanced mix of options
Kivi Niria jaarcongres,23 november 2011Transatlantic Academy12 January 2012
Resource scarcity:1. A different discussion2. Transparent goals3. Balanced options
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Resource scarcity is of all times…
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
The current discussion has more dimensions
Source: PBL, 2011
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use …
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use …
Climate change
Source: PBL, 2009
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Not only depletion, but also indirect physical effects of resource use …
Biodiversity lossClimate change
Source: PBL, 2009 Source: PBL, 2011a
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… short-term price peaks…
Source: PBL, 2010
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… short-term price peaks…
Source: PBL, 2010
Scarcity Resources too expensive
Abundance (environ-mental degradation):Resources too cheap
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
… and resource security.
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Most severe effects in developing countries.
In PBL, 2011
Kivi Niria jaarcongres,23 november 2011Transatlantic Academy12 January 2012
Resource scarcity:1. A different discussion2. Transparent goals3. Balanced options
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
20
Resource policies can have several objectives
1. Security of supply2. Affordability3. Environment4. Development
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
21
Objectives can conflict: choices are required
Source: PBL, 2011
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
Environment track / Resource efficiency– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
Security of supply track / Raw materials– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
Environment track / Resource efficiency– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
Security of supply track / Raw materials– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
Where are priorities?
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Current EU policy goals
Environment track / Resource efficiency– Flagship initiative ‘Resource Efficient Europe’ (January
2011)– ‘Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe’ (October 2011)
Security of supply track / Raw materials– ‘Tackling the challenges on commodity markets and on raw
materials’ (February 2011)
Where are priorities? Where is development?
Kivi Niria jaarcongres,23 november 2011Transatlantic Academy12 January 2012
Resource scarcity:1. A different discussion2. Transparent goals3. Balanced options
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
26
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
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Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
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Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling
Rebound effect
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
29
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling
Rebound effect
Other necessary directions – Substitution– Behavioural changes
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
30
Resource efficiency is not a silver bullet
Relative decoupling is not absolute decoupling
Rebound effect
Other necessary directions – Substitution– Behavioural changes
Involve other actors
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
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3 Lessons for effective resource policies
Integrate all dimensions of the new resource discussion
Be transparent about trade-offs between goals
Develop a balanced set of policy options
Kivi Niria jaarcongres,23 november 2011Transatlantic Academy12 January 2012
Thank you!
www.pbl.nl
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Literature - PBL reports used
2009 Growing within Limits
2010 Scarcity and Transition
2011 Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
2011a The Protein Puzzle
2011b Rethinking Global Biodiversity Strategies
2011c EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global
Context
2011d The Energic Society
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
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Efficiency will not achieve climate goals
Source: PBL, 2011c
12 January 2012 Transatlantic Academy
Resource Scarcity in a Sea of Plenty
Trade-offs need to be considered…
Competing additional claims on land in 2050 Agriculture Energy crops Protected area Other ecosystem services Forestry Potentially lost due to degradation
7-31 million km2 available 17 million km2 Source: PBL, 2011a
