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Knowledge-based Sustainable Management for Europe’s Seas Big picture science for the Ecosystem...

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  • Slide 1
  • Knowledge-based Sustainable Management for Europes Seas Big picture science for the Ecosystem Approach
  • Slide 2
  • A comprehensive scientific knowledge base and practical guidance for the application of the Ecosystem Approach to the sustainable development of Europes regional seas. Image from: www.gstaadlife.com/ Overall objective
  • Slide 3
  • Organisation 33 partners from 16 European countries 5.71 M 2008 -2013 2004 - 20072008 - 2013 NowEnd of project Legacy Prof Laurence Mee - Coordinator
  • Slide 4
  • Overall project design
  • Slide 5
  • The Ecosystem Approach A resource planning and management approach that integrates the connections between land, air and water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions. Definition adapted by KnowSeas Adapted from the Ministry of Natural Resources, Canada www.mnr.gov.on.ca/
  • Slide 6
  • COMPLEXITY Systems science
  • Slide 7
  • Wicked and Tame Problems Tame problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management Wicked problem involves moral judgements and value- based decisions: governance. Clear solutions no clear solution; there will be winners and losers First order fixes Hard choices Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem
  • Slide 8
  • Systems thinking: A method of rational inquiry Understanding of how human activities can impact marine environment Models for systems analysis Conceptual models describing pathways of socio-economic drivers and pressures Sensitivity of system to proposed policy options and socio- economic changes Information about relevant attributes of the system Metadata Requirements Data and narrative Validation Leads to improvements in Scenarios Helps devise
  • Slide 9
  • Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Social system Ecological system DPSWR (DPSIR revisited)
  • Slide 10
  • Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Social system Ecological system DPSWR - Where are the impacts? IMPACTS
  • Slide 11
  • Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Human climate change Natural system variability External factors DPSWR - External factors
  • Slide 12
  • Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES DPSWR and the MSFD indicators 1: Biological diversity 3: Population of commercial fish / shell fish 4: Elements of marine food webs 6: Sea floor integrity 7: Alteration of hydrographical conditions 8: Contaminants 9: Contaminants in fish and seafood for human consumption 10: Marine litter 11: Introduction of energy, including underwater noise 2: Non-indigenous species 5: Eutrophication
  • Slide 13
  • MISMATCHING SCALES AND UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS Science for policy
  • Slide 14
  • Decision space analysis TerrestrialLocalinshoreNationalEEZTrans-boundaryRegionalSeasEU Wide Global Within one year Within 1 political term (5 yrs) Before 2020 (Target for GEnS) By 2050 MSFDEEZ WFD
  • Slide 15
  • Implementation cycles and policies TerrestrialLocalinshoreNationalEEZTrans-boundaryRegionalSeasEU Wide Global Within one year Within 1 political term (5 yrs) Before 2020 (Target for GEnS) By 2050 MSFDWFD CAPCFP
  • Slide 16
  • Tim OHiggins - SAMS
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  • Slide 19
  • Seagrass as an indicator of GES spatial variability in response Linking measures under WFD with achieving GES under MSFD using models No recovery of Seagrass in the lower saxonian Wadden Sea (from 35km in 1960s to 8 km at present). Further reductions in nitrate loads required in Dutch & German rivers Seagrass recovery linked to nitrate reductions Delft 3D model Van Beusekom & Troost Dolch, Buschbaum, Reise, v. Beusekom (AWI), unpub. results
  • Slide 20
  • Cold-water reefs & fisheries interactions Implications for achieving GES Ghost net entangled in Lophelia pertusa coral at 1000m in EU waters Jason Hall-Spencer & Soffker The importance of coral reefs in supporting diverse fish communities has been highlighted in a recent study. However, the effects of damaging fishing techniques were also observed in video footage of the reefs studied, located off the coast of Ireland. 27 th January 2012 Damage to threatened species and associated biodiversity due to fisheries and seabed litter OSPAR UK Fishing value Coral distribution
  • Slide 21
  • THRESHOLDS, SURPRISES AND NON-LINEAR SCIENCE Science for policy 2
  • Slide 22
  • Regime shifts in all systems Thorsten Blenckner, Andrew Kenny, Peter Kershaw, Alberto Barausse, Georgi Daskalov, Maciej Tomczak, Alison Gilbert
  • Slide 23
  • Results- Drivers of regime shifts SystemDrivers% explainedNumber of years North SeaAMO***66%27 Baltic SeaTemperature * Fishing*** 75 %32 Adriatic SeaP load*** Fishing*** 80 %32 Methods: Regression Analysis on de-trended time-series of abiotic drivers vs. PC1s: Generalized Additive Model (GAM) The most parsimonious model was identified using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
  • Slide 24
  • Results- Drivers of regime shifts SystemDrivers% explainedNumber of years North SeaAMO***66%27 Baltic SeaTemperature * Fishing*** 75 %32 Adriatic SeaP load*** Fishing*** 80 %32 MSFD Non-MSFD
  • Slide 25
  • TRADE OFFS Ecological economics
  • Slide 26
  • Policy RESPONSE options Environ- mental STATE changes Human WELFARE change Socio- economic DRIVERS Environ- mental PRESSURES Social system Ecological system Trade-offs
  • Slide 27
  • Benefits Costs Net carbon saving Marine ecosystem impacts External emissions avoided compared to baseline generation mix welfare- positive changes, e.g. effective MCZs protecting biodiversity welfare- negative changes, e.g. threats to bird and cetacean populations Loss of consumer surplus Producer surplus from increased prices (lost demand + excess cost of consumption) Congestion competition for use of marine space, e.g. fisheries, maritime traffic increment compared to baseline generation mix Other policy outcomes Internal Priorities security of supply; development of exportable know- how; social capital from net job creation terrestrial impacts (e.g. grid connection infrastructure); loss of social capital from net job loss Costs and benefits of offshore-wind development Potential policy conflicts renewable energy and MSFD Philip Cooper et al. Renewable energy MSFD MSP IMP CFP Relevant Policy Dogger Bank Round 3 OWF cSAC
  • Slide 28
  • ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT Innovative policy tools
  • Slide 29
  • ASSESSMENT
  • Slide 30
  • SETTING THE VISION
  • Slide 31
  • Slide 32
  • DEFINING THE FIRST STEP
  • Slide 33
  • NECESSARY INDICATORS
  • Slide 34
  • MODELS to test
  • Slide 35
  • MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL
  • Slide 36
  • COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK
  • Slide 37
  • PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION
  • Slide 38
  • SUPPORT FOR DECISION MAKERS KnowSeas Information System
  • Slide 39
  • The Spatial Data Infrastrucutre architecture with the Data Storage Layer (left), the Business Logic Layer (centre left) and the Application Layer (right). Map of the DPSWR framework to represent indicators related with the ecotoxicological pollution from organochlorines in the trophic web Sarda et al - CSIC
  • Slide 40
  • COUPLED SOCIAL ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS Testing policy choices the case of Baltic Cod
  • Slide 41
  • Cod System components
  • Slide 42
  • Policies 50% reduction in N and P Costs Benefit s CBA Clear water Health effects Fish Conceptual model
  • Slide 43
  • Slide 44
  • THE PUBLIC VIEW KnowSeas Social Science
  • Slide 45
  • The communications gap
  • Slide 46
  • 1. Building trust in institutions (1)
  • Slide 47
  • CONCLUSIONS
  • Slide 48
  • Conclusions (1) Recognition of the sea as a complex coupled social ecological system requiring an ecosystem approach to management is an important policy development Our perceptions of the environment and human values are critically important for its management Complexity is difficult to grasp, whether a scientist or a decision maker
  • Slide 49
  • Conclusions (2) Adaptive management is one towards an ecosystem approach but there are pitfalls and risks. We should be planning for the next adaptive cycle of the MSFD Serious mismatches of temporal and spatial policy and legislation reflect sectoral silo thinking; big picture science helps to maintain an overall vision and context for the MSFD and GES Beautiful
  • Slide 50
  • Conclusions so far Severe non-linear changes regimes are detected in the three regional seas Potential drivers of such changes are: Climate (North Sea, Baltic Sea) Fishing pressure (Baltic Sea, Adriatic Sea) Nutrient loading (Adriatic Sea)
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