Knowledge creation

in foresight

a practice- and

systems-oriented view

Mikko Dufva

Lectio praecursoria

22.1.2016

2 25/01/2016

Knowing about the future

Heinrich Leutemann: The Oracle of Delphi Entranced

3 25/01/2016

Foresight

4 25/01/2016

Linear view of knowledge creation in foresight

Experts Foresight process Futures knowledge

5 25/01/2016

Futures knowledge

Codified Articulated Embodied Out-of-radar

6 25/01/2016

Knowledge creation in workshops

Challenging assumptions & reframing topics

7 25/01/2016

Broader view: foresight as a system

Process

knowledge Relations Capabilities

Mediating events Metaphors

Memory objects

Cognitive schemes

Agents Mental models about

other agents,

interactions, system

Shared perceptions

Knowledge about the futures

Strategic objects

8 25/01/2016

Futures knowledge as a network

9 25/01/2016

Knowledge creation in foresight:

Changes in the network

Economic growth

(sustainability)

Responsible

economy and

sustainable growth

Economic growth is

sustainable due to

decoupling of

material growth

Sustainable growth

Survey Feedback on themes

by the government

Thematic group

work

Knowledge

Responsible

Know-how

Jobs

Global

Company

Productivity

Productivity

Finland

Finland

International

International

Welfare

Welfare Sustainable

Sustainable

Growth

Growth

Productivity

Productivity

Finland

Finland

International

International

Welfare

Welfare Sustainable

Sustainable

Growth

Growth

Changes in emphasis Reframing

10 25/01/2016

Knowledge creation in foresight: two views

Knowledge conversions Shaping of a network

Out-of-radar

knowledge

Embodied

knowledge

Articulated

knowledge

Codified

knowledge

Sharing and

articulating

Abstracting and

synthesizing

Reflecting visions

against experience

Connecting

and reflecting

Learning

Broadening

and associating

Data

Experience

Jobs

Global

Company

Productivity

Finland

International

Welfare

Sustainable

Growth

Productivity

Finland

International

Welfare

Sustainable

Growth

Knowledge

Responsible

Know-how

Productivity

Finland

International

Welfare

Sustainable

Growth

Productivity

Finland

International

Welfare

Sustainable

Growth

11 25/01/2016

Foresight: from process to system

Input

Foresight

Output

Foresight processes

Model of sustainable growth

Report on the future

Model of national foresight

Agents Concept network

Steering

group

Ministerial

working

group

Project

group

Government

in office

”Stakeholders”

Thematic

groups and

ambassadors

Company

Society

Finland

Global Welfare

Growth

Sustainable

Economy

Government

Innovation system

Foresight system

Processes shape the

concept network

Agents interact in

foresight processes

Assessment of the foresight phase

12 25/01/2016

Participation: from experts to diverse network

Pictures: Heidi Auvinen

13 25/01/2016

Futures knowledge: from block to network