Known Unknowns: The Problem with GMO Research

U. Minnesota 29 Sept 2011

Glenn Davis StoneAnthropology and Environmental Studies

Washington University

India Research 2000-2010 funded by:

NSF Grant 0314404 NSF Grant 0078396

Wenner-Gren Foundation for Anthro. ResearchWashington University

Bt Cotton in India

• Larger context of one crop’s yields

• Why we haven’t been able to measure it

• Still 2 well established (if wildly contradictory) narratives

• This case tells us less about the performance of a specific technology than about how we create and authenticate narratives about technology

recombinantbacteria

GMplants

US: Flavr Savr tomato

US: cotton, soy, maize

Europe: soy

collapse of Euro markets

3W framing

Global GMO debates

Spring 2000: Council for Biotech Info

Focus: “Small Scale Third World” farmers

NY Times, Dec 2000

Time, July 2000

Farm size of all soy planters (no data on GM planters) • overall 72 ha. • 501 ha in Mid-West where most soy expansion

(R. Zanon & M. Saes 2010, “Soybean Production in Brazil: Main Determinants of Property Sizes”, IGBE)

Farm size of HT soy planters• overall 496 ha. • early adopters 1,084 ha; late adopters 316 ha

(Qaim & Traxler 2005 Agric. Econ. 32:73–86; Finger et al. 2009 AgBioForum, 12[3&4], 404-411)

3W Smallholders Planting GM Crops

Opportunities Challenges

• Largest cotton acreage

• 17 million cotton farmers

• Lepidopteran crisis

• Scientific establishment & biosafety regulation

• Hybrid seeds

• Strong NGO sector

• Free & vigorous press

• Monsanto reputation

• Complex agro-entomology

14

15

1998 Suicide Crisis, Warangal (Andhra Pradesh)

Family after father committed suicide by drinking pesticide

16

Bt cotton approved 2002; rapid adoption 2005-2008

Narrative : Failure and Disastercausing widespread farmer suicide

“On average, Bt-adopting farmers realize pesticide reductions of roughly 40%, and yield advantages of 30–40%” (Sadashivappa & Qaim, 2009:172).

Narrative : Remarkable Successfastest adopted farm technology in history

Ongoing Contestationscontinued focus on field-level findings

The write up was re-print of a story from the Times of India, Nagpur edition, October 31, 2008 and it was being published under the TOI’s “Consumer Connect Initiative”, a benevolent nomenclature given to paid news… “The trip to Yavatmal was arranged by Mahyco Monsanto Biotech”…

Sub-Door to Door survey Bhamraja and Antargaon of Bt,cotton farmers in order to counter False advertising campaign by Mahyco Monsanto Biotech .

This sudden spate of fraudulent advertisements is because the Biotechnology Regulatory Authority of India (BRAI) Bill is shortly coming up in Parliament. There is deliberate intent here of Monsanto to mislead members of Parliament into favouring its utterly dishonest claims about Bt cotton. Mahyco Monsanto has been on this offensive for sometime now, with various … Hence very serious survey of these villages is must hence we have decided to do door to door survey of these villages to expose and we will do it in this week

Data collection details • Farmer’s details family member details and income source and land holding, irrigation facility and crop pattern followed for last six year.• The changes in income pattern, cultivation cost, use of pesticide, expenses on public health.net cotton production and income growth.• Water level in last six year and data on water consumption for cotton cultivation…

Dec. 2002 meeting & farmer open mike by Deccan Development Society

Anti-GMO Empirics

Failure Narrative and the Reciprocal Authenticity Dynamic

[collusion between international and local NGO’s] prevent confrontationwith empirical findings … and simultaneously reinforce diffusion of a consistent narrative to the international advocacy network. GM Watch [UK-

based anti-GM group] learns that there are GMO catastrophes in India from the Deccan Development Society. These networks of course have deep interests in promulgating their findings to journalists so as to broaden communication. Through these flows, a reciprocal authenticity dynamic develops: ex-colonial powers and their press authenticate global narratives for local networks; local reports legitimated by indigeneity provide confirmation for global narratives.

Herring, R. (2009) Persistent narratives: Why is the "failure of Bt cotton in India" story still with us? AgBioForum 12(1):14-22.

•But GMO critics do collect data and publish empirical findings (albeit with credibility problems)

•And empirical findings authenticated through conventional channels have their own credibility problems…

Success Narrative and the Scientific Expertise Dynamic

2003 Science 299:900-902

Success Narrative and the Scientific Expertise Dynamic Field studies yield contradictory results from contested data. To investigate explanations for this phenomenon, a team of social and natural scientists* visited Warangal district in December of 2006. Team composition was intentionally broad and consequential: we had linguistic competence… we had expertise in molecular biology, plant genetics, agronomics, political economy, rural administration and regulation. All these strands of expertise turned out to be useful.

•Kameswara Rao, S. Shantharam, Ronald Herring

Herring, R. 2008 Whose numbers count? Probing discrepant evidence on transgenic cotton in the Warangal district of India. Int Journal of Multiple Research Approaches 2:145–159.

Smale et al. 2006 :• Overall India balance sheet “promising “ but “mixed,” “inconclusive”

• Yield advantages vary by hybrid and by region and by year

Smale M, Zambrano P, Cartel M. 2006. Bales and balance: a review of the methods used to assess the economic impact of Bt cotton on farmers in developing economies. AgBioForum 9:195–212.

Tripp 2009 :

• highly variable yield advantage

Transgenic cotton: Assessing economic performance in the field, in Biotech-nology and agricultural development

Maharashtra: where studies show a “complex, confusing picture of farmers’ spraying behaviour and a startling degree of variability in their cotton output” (Bennett et al. 2006; Glover, 2009:16).

Conventional Scientific Empiricseven at face value: highly variable

Beyond Face Valueserious problems with the counterfactual

Selection Bias

Cultivation Bias

Early Effects Bias

Maize adopters in Turkey:•Higher educational level •Higher income•Larger farm size•More travels to nearest town•Greater use of extension personnel•More mechanization level•More credit use•Higher agricultural investmentsBoz & Akbay 2005 Factors influencing the adoption of maize in Kah. province of Turkey. Agric Econ 33:431-440.

Hybrid adopters in Iowa:•More formal education•Higher income•Larger farms•More cosmopolitan

Selection Bias

Precision farming adopters in U.S.:•Higher income•Larger farms•Higher expected yields

Daberkow & McBride 1998 Socio-economic profiles of early adopters of precision agriculture technologies. J. of Agribusiness 16(2):151-168.

2002-5 studies focus on early Bt adopters:

• Own 58% more land (Morse et al. 2007)

• Own 36% more land (Sadash. & Qaim 2009)

• More educated, diversified (Lalitha et al. 2009)

• Produce 29-43% more on non-Bt fields (Morse et al. 2007)

Selection Bias in Bt Adoption in India

Mohan Reddy, wealthy farmer and early Bt adopter in Saireddipally, Warangal, AP

Bt

Growing both Non-Bt only

29-43% higher yield

i.e., None

Data from Monsanto-Mahyco

probably None

Dev & Rao 2007 2004-5 None

Bt seeds initially Rs 1600 (cf. conventional Rs 400) Anecdotally:

Bt seeds on best soilsBt seeds get better water

Bt seeds get added attention & labor

Cultivation Bias

1st Bt adopters in Perkevedu village, Warangal Dist.

Early Effects Bias

Percentages of proprietary hirsutum hybrid cotton seeds

Rapid Adoption of Insecticides & Proprietary Hybrid Seeds

36

Caterpillars (Lepidoptera) Sucking pests (Hemiptera)

purugu domalu

Cotton aphids 99% sample farms sprayed for sucking pests at least once in 2007

Similar problems now in China with mirids; “secondary pests have completely eroded all benefits from Bt cotton cultivation” (Wang et al. 2006)

Species Country Crop Bt toxinYear

Commerc.Year

Detected Refs

Busseola fusca(maize stem borer) S. Africa corn Cry1Ab 1998 2006 Van Rensburg 2007, Kruger et al. 2009

Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm) Puerto Rico corn Cry1F 2003 2007 Storer et al. 2010

Pectinophora gossypiella(pink bollworm) India cotton Cry1Ac 2002* 2008

Dhurua and Gujar 2010; Monsanto 2010

Helicoverpa zea (bollworm) USA cotton Cry1Ac 1996 2004 Ali et al. 2006; Tabashnik et al. 2008

Helicoverpa zea (bollworm) USA cotton Cry2Ab 2003 2005

Ali and Luttrell 2007; Tabashnik et al. 2009; Tabashnik & Carriere 2010

Field-Evolved Bt Resistance

Bt cotton significantly increased cotton yields by an average of 18.2% over conventional cotton

reduction in insecticide costs over conventional cotton

Bt cotton producers earned a profit of $39.00 per ha, a $61.88 per ha increase in cotton income over conventional cotton

The India Case Helps to Authenticate Parking Lot Sciencea much-watched case of African small farmers:

2010

Characteristics of households … but no data on adopters vs. non-adopters

Measurements of yield advantages over conventional … but who were the conventional growers?

So what was the counterfactual? Why didn’t they explain it?Do journals now accept comparisons to unnamed counterfactuals?

- senior author, July 2011

working example of how African countries can enhance sustainability using modern, science-driven technology to increase production levels while reducing input use and energy consumption.

Can Its Impact Be Measured?well it can be measured better…

Reducing (not eliminating) problems in selection, cultivation and early effects bias

Stone, G. D. 2011 Field versus Farm in Warangal: Bt Cotton, Higher Yields, and Larger Questions. World Development 39(3):387-398.

GudeppadIndigenous population, range of castes

Black cotton soils commonHigh commitment to cotton (59% in 2003)

RavuruLargely tribal population

Poor, low education & info connectivity

KalledaIndigenous population, range of castes

Black cotton soils rareLow commitment to cotton (16% in 2003)

SaireddipallyImmigrant Andhras, mostly Kamma

Prosperous, high education & info connectivity

Panel Study 2003 - 2007

• Village populations stratified on land ownership (as index of wealth), sampled randomly

• Interview design, checking and collection done in collaboration with agricultural economist A. Sudarshan Reddy, Ctr. for Env. Studies

• 2003: only 5 of 243 cotton seed purchases by 144 hholds were Bt (excluded)

• 2007: virtually all Bt

• Avoids selection & cultivation biases

•Possibly confounded by different conditions in 2003-2007

65% farms in 4-village sample had irrigation

(the synchronic studies didn’t take differences in irrigation into account at all)

2003

(all conventional)

2007

(all Bt) Percentage

Increase

Significance (2-

tailed t test)

Village mean sd n mean sd n

Gudeppad 22.8 6.1 145 30.4 4.2 59 33.6%

<.01

Kallada 11.1 3.9 37 17.2 5.3 15 54.6%

<.01

Ravuru 11.4 6.2 30 18.3 5.5 59 60.1%

<.01

Saireddypally 24.8 9.1 26 22.4 6.5 48 -9.7%

.18

Total 19.7 8.2 158 23.3 7.5 181 18.0%

<.01

•Overall modest advantage but…

•Highly variable yield advantage

•Greatest in poorest villages

•How meaningful is the 18% average when yield advantage ranged from -10% to +60%?

2003excluding the 5 Bt planters

2007

Mean sd n Mean sd n % change

Gudeppad 11.9 4.4 145 5.1 1.4 59 -57.4%

Kallada 6.9 3.9 37 4.0 2.0 16 -41.5%

Ravuru 7.3 4.7 30 3.9 2.5 62 -46.7%

Saireddypally 10.7 3.1 26 5.5 1.9 56 -49.0%

Total 10.4 4.7 238 4.7 2.1 193 -54.7%

•Consistent sharp decline

•But rising problems with flies

Known Unknowns• Performance of Bt cotton in India was and is a headline issue

• Impact was very hard to isolate among other factors, and we never did it well

• Can’t do it now: non-Bt cotton seeds too rare for useful comparisons

• Moreover Bt seeds changing too quickly for meaningful analyses (by scientists or farmers)

• (But field peformance has been overrated anyway; “farm level” more important than “field level”)

• But this case can teach us much about the processes by which we create and authenticate narratives

thank you

Unused slides

Waltz, Emily 2009 Battlefield. Nature 461:27-32

Miller, H., P. Morandini and K. Ammann 2008 Is biotechnology a victim of anti-science bias in scientific journals? Trends in Biotech 26(3):122-125.

•(Klaus Amman, “working nearly day and night” attacking negative findings on GMO’s)•“investigator misconduct” … perpetuating the “big lie”

“When bad science is used to justify bad public policies, we all lose” says [Alan] McHughen, who says he is on a “campaign to make academic scientists a little less politically naive and a bit more careful in their scientific work”.

Rosi-Marshall, E. J., et al. 2007 Toxins in transgenic crop byproducts may affect headwater stream ecosystems. Proc. National Acad of Sciences 104(41):16204-16208.

Trends in Cotton Yields

Source: International Cotton Advisory Board

Source: International Cotton Advisory Board

Short-Term Ahistoric Studies are Misleading

Bt adoption in 2004-5 season: 5.7%(Sadashivappa, P. and M. Qaim 2009 Bt cotton in India: Development of benefits and the role of government seed price intervention. AgBioForum 12(2):172-183)

Source: International Cotton Advisory Board

In the preproduction villages, households were randomly selected to participate in the study. All of the farmers that were randomly selected did participate…

Rapid change in SeedsVendors in Warangal City:• collectively sold 125 cotton brands (61 companies) between 2003-05• of the 78 brands in 2005, only 24 had been around since 2003

Ever changing menu of hybrid seeds

Theorizing Agricultural Deskilling• Disruption of ongoing process of skilling (learning to perform with available technology)

• Proximate causes mostly from proprietary hybrid seed market:• Inconsistency (skilling is particularly hard with pest/pesticide variability in space

& time)• Unrecognizability (don’t even know what they are planting much of the time)• Rapid change in technologies & products (major departure from US technophile

ideal)

• Over-reliance on social learning when environmental learning is inaccurate / costly

• Reflected in pure social learning without environmental basis

Stone, G. D. 2007 Agricultural Deskilling and the Spread of Genetically Modified Cotton in Warangal. Current Anthropology 48:67-103.

Breakdown in Environmental Learning

`

Deskilling Reflected in Seed Fads

•Seed brands follow boom & bust cycles

•Villages have new favorites every year or two

•Neighboring villages often have different favorites

•No agro-ecological rationale