9 2 2534

1 (Modern World) (Cycles) (Economic Life) Kitchin 2-3 (Joseph Kitchin) Juglar 6-10 (Clement Juglar) Kuznets 15-20 (Simon Kuznets) Kondratieff 45-60 (Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratieff) Logistic Trend Sculaire 150-300 (Taylor, 1988) Kondratieff 2460 Trotsky (1923) 45-60 (Kondratieff, 1979) 3

1 (Modern World) 16 (Wallerstein, 1974)

? ? 40-60 ? ? 1. ? ? Nikolai Dmitrievich Kondratieff 2435 2474 () Kondratev Kondratiev 2473 (Working Peasants Party) 2474 2460 25 Kerensky Moscow Business Conditions Institute 2463-2471 (Peasant Indices) 2462-2471 Tugen-Baranovsky 2465

24682 2471 Moscow Business Condition Institute 1

3 Joseph A. Schumpeter (Business Cycles) 2482 2. ? 50-60 Major Cyvle, Long Swings, Long Wave, Long Cycle, Trend Cycle, Trade Cycle, Secular Trend, Secondary Secular Movement, Secondary Deviation, Trend Period Movement de Longue Dure Kondratieff Cycle Long Wave cycle Alexander Helphand Parvus 2444 2456 J.Fedder4 Socialist Monthly 2 The Long Waves in Economics Life, Review of Economics and Statistics 17 (1935): 105-115 Review 2 (1979) : 519-562. 3 This theory is wrong and reactionary Gulag Archipelago (Solzhenitsyn, 1974) (Garvy, 1953) 4 J. Fedder Van Gelderen Kondratieff Van Gelderen De Wolf Kondratieff (Barr, 1979)

Jevons (1884), Wicksell (1898), Aftalion (1913), Lenoir (1913) tugen-Baramovsky (1894) 54 (Clarke, 1847) 2465 (Kondratieff, 1922) 2468 10 Review of economics and statistics 24785 2323-2463 2323 (Konfratieff, 1979) Schumpter 16 2330-2385 (Schumpter, 1939, Vol.I) 2323 2343 Delbeke (1982) 9 6 7 5 Archiv fur Aozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, LVI, 3(1926), 573-609 W.F.Stolper 6 Juglar Trade Cycle 7

140 2 2323-24638 1

1 2323-2463

I II

III

Upswing Downswing Upswing

Downswing Upswing

Downswing

2323-2353/60 2353/60-2387/94 2387/94-2413/18 2413/18-2433/39 2433/39-2457/63

2457/63-?

60

47 -

: Kondratieff (1935) Upswing Downswing 25 2467 (Wavelike Movements) (Equilibrium Path) 1 2 3 Alfred Marshell (Garvy, 1943) ( 2323-2463) () (Kondratieff, 1935) Van Gelderen (1913) De Wolff (1924) 5

(1)

8 (Reversible) (Non-Reversible Trend)

(2) (Downswing) 2410 1

(3) (Downswing) (Inventions) (Innovation Cluster)

(4) (Upswing)

(5) (Upswing)

5 5 5 (Exogeneous shocks)

(Long Duration Investment Cycle) 10 Tugen-Baranovsky (1894) (Free Lonanable Funds) Upswing

De Wolff (1924)

38 18 (Solomou, 1987)

(Tentative Explanation) Upswing (Trend Line) Downswing 3. 9 4 (Modeliski, 1978)

(1) ? (2) ? () (3) ? (4)

?

2

70 2465 2470 2490 1 9 Barr (1979)

? (Glismann, et.al., 1980) (Mandel, 1980) Rostow (1975) Dupriez (1978) Massachusetts Institute of Technology Forrester (1981) 2520 (Kondratieff Cycles) Upswings 3.1 ? 4 (Van Ewijk, 1981)

(1)

(2) 40-60 (3)

(4)

1 2323-2463

3 2460 2480 1 2 3

3.11 : ?

(Anderson, 1929; Bagdanov, 1928; eventov, 1929; Garvy, 1953; Gerzstein, 1928; granovsky, 1929; guberman, 1927; Herzenstein, 1928; Oparin, 1930; Pervushin, 1926; svetlov, 1929; trostsky, 1921; 1923;1926;1945)

(Motyleff, 1923)

Leon Trotsky 20 1 2465 (Trotsky,1921)

(Periodical Cycles) (Separate Historical Periods) (Internal regulator) 10 (External Conditions) Superstructural order 2

10 3.2

2

Day (1976) (Basic Curve) (Kondratieffs Trend Line) (Cyclical Curve) A B C D E Superstructural Events 2391 2448 2 2468 The Long Cycles of the Conjuncture 2469 2465 Least Squares Technique (OLS) Trend Line

Juglar Trade Cycle 9 2343-2463 ( 3)

4

(Trend Line) (Single Equation)

George Garvy (Garvy, 1943) 1 Garvy

2 140 25 4 4 2 1 1 11 1 ( 2)

2

2 2 1 1

4 -

4 -

3 3

3 8

15

21 4 4 6 11 36 : Garvy (1935) () 21 11 Smooth Smooth Unsmooth George Garvy (Schumpter, 1939)

3.12 : 2454

(Beenstock, 1984)

2477 (Schumpter, 1934) 2482 (Schumpter, 1939) 2470 3 (Kuznets, 1930; Mitchell, 1927) Kondratieff Cycles

Kitchin Cycle 3 Juglar Cycle 9-10 55 2330-2482 3

3

2330-2482 Prosperity Recession Depression Revival

1. Industrial Revolution Kondratieff (Cotton Textiles, Iron and Steam Power) 2330-2343 2344-2356 2357-2370 2371-2385

2. Bourgeois Kondratieff (Railroadization) 2386-2400 2401-2412 2413-2428 2429-2440

3. Neomercantilist Kondratieff (Electricity, Automobiles, Chemical) 2441-2454 2455-2468 2468-2482 ?

: Maddison (1982) ( 3 ) Juglars 6 Juglar Kitchin 3 5 2330-2485 2386-2440

2441

3.13 :

Rostow (1975a; 1975b; 1978; 1979) Upswing Downswing 5 2333-2515 6 2 Shock

2333-2515 4 5 4 5

4 2533-2515

(Slump) (Boom) I II III IV V

2333-2358 2391-2416 2439-2463 2476-2494 2515 - ?

2358-2391 2416-2439 2463-2476 2494-2515

58 48 37 39

: Beenstock (1984) Kondratieff, Schumpeter Kuznets 5 (Rostow and Kennedy, 1979; Rostow, 1975a)

3.2 : ? ? ? ? ? 3.21 : 2465 (Kondratieff, 1922) (Eklund, 1980) De Wolff (1924) (Fixed Capital) Upswings Downswings 50-60

? 3.22 : (Business Cycles) (Causality) (Innovation) (Technical Innovation) 11 (Kondratieff, 1935) 2490

(1) (Product and Process Cycles)

(2) (3)

1 19 (Technological Revolutions) Kondratieff Cycles Upswing Downswing (Schumpeter, 1939) 2323 2385 Lancashire 2386 2440 2441 11 5 5 (Kondratieff, 1979)

(Innovation Cluster) 3 Darby Watt Bessemer Brunels and Stephensons 12 (Innovations and Inventions)

(Process of Creative Destruction) (Enterpreneur)

Kuznets (1940) 12 Invention Scientiic Discovery Innovation Invention Invention Innovation Invention Innovation Innovation (Schumpter, 1939)

50

Juglars Kitchins Cycle

3 Kuznets (1940)

3.23 : Simon Kuznets

Kuznets Swings Kuznets Cycle 15-25 (Kuznets, 1930) Kuznets Swings Kuznets (Transatlantic migration) Kuznets 2413-2519 5

5

2413-2519 (% ) (GDP)

I 2413-2456 (Boom) II 2456-2493 (Slump) III 2493-2513 (Boom) IV 2513-2519 (Slump)

2.5 1.9 4.9 3.0

1.0 0.8 1.1 0.6

: Madison (1977) Kuznets 1

Kuznets Kuznets Swings 2500 (Hichman, 1963; Abramovits, 1968; Adelman, 1965) 2323-2483 2500 7 ( 2355 2403 1 2 2490 ) 3.24 : 13

13 Rowthorn (1976), Dav (1976), Eklund (1980) Marshall (1987)

Ernest Mandel 1 Late Capitalism Long Waves of Capitalist Development Mandel (1972; 1980) 2490 (Rate of Profits) 14 (Organic Composition of Capital) 15 Triggering Factors Upswing 16

/ v v)14 rq c= vq c /(c= + c = v = () 15 5 1 8 (Working Day) 5 8 3 Surplus Value 16 r = s / (c+v) r = s = c = v =

v

s s Irc v v I q

= = + + (Marx, 1962) 2 ( )vq (s)

triggering Factors () ( ) 4 2 4 Downswing Kuznets (1940) Garvy (1943) (Eklund, 1980) (Proxies) Capital-Output Ratios 2 (Eklund, 1980) (Rowthorn, 1976)

50 (Day, 1976) Downswing Upswings Maddison (1982) 3.4 2.7 3.25 : Walt Rostow (Rostow, 1975a; 1975b; 1978; 1979; 1985) ( ) Upswing Downswings 5 ( 4) Shocks Eclectic Upswing (Rostow, 1975a) (Eklund, 1980; Beenstock, 1984) 3.3 :

? (Freeman, 1987) 2465 Downswing 2515 17 (Basic Innovation) (Innovation Clusters) 2342-2498 (Mensch, 1975; 1979) 2470 Jewkes, et. al. (1969) 6 Mensch (1979) Neo-Schumpeterian18 Mensch (1979) 127 2283-2498 3

6

2443-2512

2443-2452 2453-2462 2463-2472 2473-2482 2483-2492 2493-2502 2503-2512

5 6 5 15 15 10 4

: Jewkes et. al. (1969) 17 Mensch (1979) Basic Innovation Improvement Innovation Basic Innovation Improvement Innovation 18 Freeman (1987) 2520

1 2356-2370 2 2414-2428 3 2469-2481

Mensch 8 3 9 (A Wood-Burning Wave) (A Coal-Burning Wave) (A Petroleum and Natural Gas Wave) Mensch 9 (Energy Resource and Development Administration, 1976)

Mensch (1979) Technology Stalemate Improved Innovation Pseudo-Innovations Basic Innovations Mensch (1979) George Ray Mensch Improvement, Pseudo Basic Innovations 19 (Diffusion of an Innovation) (Speed of an Innovation) (Ray, 1980) 19 (Process Innovation) (Mansfield, 1987)

Mensch (1979) 20 (Solomou, 1986) Jewkes, et.al. (1969) Jewkes, et.al. (1969) 60 ( 70 2) Mensch Jewkes, et.al. (1969) 20 2470 Jewkes, et.al. (1969) Mensch (1979) Jewkes, et.al. (1969) Van Duijn (1981; 1983) 10 11

20 5 (Schumpeter, 1939)

Van Duijn (1981) 81 2383-2514 10

Van Duijn (1983) 160 7

7 2383-2514

1 %

49 20 10 9

56 23 11 10

: Van Duijn (1981) : 1 Solomou (1986) Mensch (1979) Van Duijn (1983) 8

8 Mensch Van Duijn (1983)

2415-2493 x

2415-2428 2429-2456 2457-2468 2469-2481 2482-2493

1.14 1.11 1.05 1.77 1.75

1.23 1.28 1.20 2.05 2.00

: Solomou (1986 : Table 7) ( 2415-2456 2469-2493) 2470 2483 2415-2468 Van Duijn Mensch Innovation Cluster

Mensch 2415-2435 24 2435-2456 23 2456-2472 11 2472-2491 38 2456 1 2 2456 2472 (Hopkins and Walterstein, 1987) Van Duijn (1981; 1983) () Freeman, et.al. (1982) Innovation Clusters Depression-Trigger Hypothesis Mensch (1979) Van Duijn (1981; 1983) () Freeman, et.al.(1982) Mensch (1979) (Product Innovation) (Process Innovation) Kleinknecht (1981; 1984) Mahdavi (1972) 20 3 SI = (Scientific Instrument Innovations)

IP = (Improvement and Process Innovations)

PI = (Product Innovations)

(Radical Breakthrouth Innovation) (Major Technological Shift Innovation) (Improvement Innovation) (Imitation) (Degree of Radicalness of the Innovation) SI Innovation IP Innovation PI Innovation PI Innovation Basic Innovation Mensch Van Duijn (New Products) (Precess Innovation) IP Innovation (Solomou, 1986)

Neo-schumpeterian Mensch-Jewkes Freeman, et.al. (1982) 2420 ( ) Improvement Process Innovation ( Modet T) (Anti-Knock Petrol) 2478 (Continunous catalytic Petrol Craching) 2480 2460 (Causality)

(Rosenberg and Frischtak, 1984) Sussex (Freeman, et.al., 1982) (Rosenberg and Frishtak, 1984) 4. (Garvy, 1943) Lewis (1978) ( ) Spectral Analysis Van Ewijk (1981; 1982) Kondratieff Cycle Beenstock (1984) Van Ewijk Taylor (1988) 6 ( ) Stepwise Polynomial Regression 2408-2518 Agnew (1987) 2343-2523 Jocobsen (1984) Metz (1984)

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