Home >Documents >KPCB Top 10 Mobile Trends

KPCB Top 10 Mobile Trends

Date post:02-Apr-2015
Category:
View:48,212 times
Download:0 times
Share this document with a friend
Description:
Presentation given by Kleiner Perkins partners Mary Meeker and Matt Murphy's to Google advertisers at the thinkmobile conference on 2/10/2011
Transcript:

TOP MOBILE INTERNET TRENDSMatt Murphy / Mary Meeker 2/10/11http://www.slideshare.net/kleinerperkins/kpcb-top-10-mobile-trends-feb-2011

Copyright 2011. All rights reserved. Duplication or redistribution of this presentation are prohibited without prior written authorization.

1

Mobile Trends Rapid Growth + Disruption

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.

Mobile Platforms Hit Critical Mass Mobile is Global Social Networking Accelerating Growth of Mobile Time Shifting to Mobile Usage Mobile Advertising Growing Pains But Huge Promise mCommerce Changing Shopping Behavior Emergence of Virtual Goods & In-App Commerce Not All Platforms Are Created Equal Change Will Accelerate, New Players Emerging Rapidly Summary Trends to Watch

2

MOBILE PLATFORMS HIT CRITICAL MASS

iPods Changed the Media IndustryiPhones Ramped Even FasteriPad Growth Leaves its Siblings in the DustFirst 3 Quarters Cumulative Unit Shipments, iPod vs. iPhone vs. iPad16,000 iPad 14,000 iPhone iPod

Global Unit Shipments (000)

12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 0 1 Quarters After Launch 2 3

Source: Apple.

4

iTunes Changed the Media IndustryApp Store Growth Leaves it in the DustCumulative Number of Downloads, iTunes Music / Video / Movie vs. Apps, First 10 Quarters10 Apps iTunes

8

# of Downloads (B)

6

4

2

0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Quarters After Launch 7 8 9 10

Source: Apple.

5

Android has Hit Critical MassFirst 9 Quarters Cumulative Android Unit Shipments80 Android Global Units Shipped 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 Quarters After Launch 6 7 8 9

Source: Gartner.

Global Cumulative Unit Shipments (MM)

6

Smartphone + Tablet > PC Shipments Since CQ4:10Global Unit Shipments of Desktop PCs + Notebook PCs vs. Smartphones + Tablets, 2005-2013E700,000

CQ4:10: Inflection Point Smartphones + Tablets > Total PCs

600,000

Global Unit Shipments (MM)

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0 2005 Desktop PCs 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E

Notebook PCs

Smartphones

Tablets

Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks. Source: Katy Huberty, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research. Data and Estimates as of 2/11

7

MOBILE IS GLOBAL

5 Countries = 46% of Internet Users China, USA, Russia, Brazil, India2009 1.8B Global Internet Users, +13% Y/Y(1); 18.8T Minutes Spent, +21% Y/Y(2)

Russia 60MM users; +31% Y/Y 42% penetration* USA 240MM users, +4% Y/Y 76% penetration*

China 384MM users; +29% Y/Y 29% penetration*

Brazil 76MM users, +17% Y/Y 39% penetration*

India 61MM users; +18% Y/Y 5% penetration*

Note: *Penetration is per 100 inhabitants. Source: 1) Internet user stats per International Telecommunications Union; pertime spent data per comScore global 12/09. time spent data per comScore global 12/09. Source: 1) Internet user stats 2) International Telecommunications Union; 2)

9

35% Y/Y Global Mobile 3G Subscriber Growth to ~726MM, CQ3CQ3:10 3G 3G Sub 3G Subs PenetraY/Y (MM) tion Growth 141 109 40 34 31 28 27 23 21 21 20 19 18 12 12 47% 95 79 40 41 28 48 50 11 33 2 10 66 50 5 27% 12 12 21 32 28 21 35 54 30 458 177 29 147 67 CQ3:10 3G 3G Sub 3G Subs PenetraY/Y (MM) tion Growth 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 42% 26 18 57 15 10 32 7 35 46 52 4 59 7 26 40% 23 50 43 36 160 27 98 8 30 18 707 48 34 28

Rank Country 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 USA Japan Korea Italy UK Germany Spain Poland Indonesia France China Brazil Australia Canada Russia

Rank 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Country Taiwan Malaysia Saudi Arabia Sweden South Africa Turkey Netherlands Philippines Portugal Austria Israel Vietnam Singapore Egypt Greece

Global 3G Stats:

Subscribers = ~726MM

Penetration = 14%

Growth = 35%

Note: *Informa reports a lower global 3G subscription # vs. Ovum due to the exclusion of 4G and the use of different sources. 3G includes CDMA 1x EV-DO and Rev. A/B, WCDMA, HSPA; Source: Informa WCIS+.

10

SOCIAL NETWORKING ACCELERATING GROWTH OF MOBILE

Different Types of Platforms = Facebook + Apple + Google

iPhone/iTouch/iPad

SOCIAL

662MM users +41% Y/Y 550K+ apps 500MM+ downloads

130MM+ users +103% Y/Y 350K+ apps 10B+ downloads

MOBILE

* 972MM users +8% Y/Y CQ4: CPCs +4% Q/Q paid clicks +18% Y/YSource: Company data, comScore global 12/10. *Google Android momentum especially strong too.

SEARCH

12

Emerging Types of Social NetworksMore to Come

INFORMATION SHARING

253MM unique visitors +85% Y/Y

130MM+ monthly active users +15% Y/Y

GAMING

51MM subscribers +25x Y/Y

Source: Groupon, Twitter, Zynga.

COMMERCE13

Zynga Proves that Great New Social Products for Old Users Can Ramp Extremely QuicklyDaily Active Users, FarmVille vs. CityVille, First 60 Days Since Product Launch

20 FarmVille Daily Active Users (MM) 16 12 8 4 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 Days After Launch 46 51 56 CityVille

Source: Zynga. Note that FarmVille launched in 6/09, CityVille launched in 12/10.

14

Real-Time Social Features Accelerating Mobile Usage Growth - Sharing + Location + Friending...

Location SharingFourSquare Whrrl Twitter

CommunicationTextPlus TextFree

Music SharingShazam Spotify

FB Connect for Mobile Built in Friend Connectivity, Share, ViralityInvite Friends Share Feed

15

KPCBs John Doerr Calls It SoLoMo

So Lo MoSocial Local Mobile16

TIME SHIFTING TO MOBILE USAGE17

Japan Social Networking Trends Show Importance of Mobile Mixi Mobile Page Views = 85% vs. 14% 4.5 Years AgoMixis (Japans Leading Social Network) Monthly Page Views, Mobile vs. PC, CQ2:06-CQ4:10 Mobile Page Views Desktop Page ViewsCQ3:09 Platform opened to 3rd-party developers85%

Monthly Page Views (MM)

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 14% 5,000 86% 0 2Q06 4Q06 2Q07

15% 4Q07 2Q08 4Q08 2Q09 4Q09 2Q10 4Q10

Note: Mixi is one of Japans leading social networking sites on PC and mobile with 20MM registered users as of 12/31/10. It monetizes mobile usage via sales of avatars, customized homepages and other premium services. Source: Company reports, Naoshi Nema, Morgan Stanley Research

18

60% of Time Spent on Smartphones is New Activity for Mobile UsersAverage Time Spent on Various Mobile Functions, 1/11 10 minutes (12%) Web/Web Apps NEW ACTIVITY

27 minutes (32%) Telephony Phone Skype Messages

40 minutes (47%) All Other Maps Games Social Networking Utilities More 7 minutes (9%) Mail App

Source: AppsFire, 1/11. Note that Android users show a higher % browsing activity.

19

Global Mobile Data Traffic Should Grow 26x Over Next 5 Years, ,

Global Mobile Data Traffic, by Type 2008 2015ETotalM2M*

2010-2015E CAGR5% 22% 92% 109%

Total Mobile Data Traffic (Tetabyte per month)

6,000,000 5,000,000

6%4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

Data

80%

File Sharing

62%

66%Video

104%

VoIP

42%

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Data Traffic Forecast, 2010-2015

20

Strong Mobile Trends for Leading Social Companies

200MM mobile active users vs. 50M in 9/09 2x more active than desktop-only users

Mobile = 50% of total active users, vs. 25% Y/Y Mobile = 40% of all tweets

Introduction of mobile product drove 2x conversion ratio from free to paying subscribers Mobile users = 25-30% total users in mature markets

100MM mobile users vs. 50MM Y/Y

Adding 3MM users per month 50% of all users subscribe on mobile21

MOBILE ADVERTISING GROWING PAINS BUT HUGE PROMISE

So Far, Difficult to Build Consistent Mobile Ad Revenue Owing to Lumpy Buys, Need for More Premium Advertisers

2010 Mobile eCPMs for 4 KPCB Portfolio Companies $ 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecSource: KPCB Companies23

A B C D

Yet the Efficacy of Mobile Ads vs. Other Media is CompellingRelative Efficacy of Mobile vs. Other Advertising Media, 1/11Reach Targeting90

Engagement70 801 0

Viral80 40

Transaction80 60

Mobile Internet TV Print Radio Outdoor

100

50

50

501 0

30

90

201 0

40

20

1 0

60

1 0

401 0

1 0

20

1 0

Source: Chetan Sharma, January 201124

Media Time Spent vs. Ad Spend Still Out of WhackInternet/Mobile (upside) vs. Newspaper/Magazine/TV (downside)

% of Time Spent in Media vs. % of Advertising Spending, USA 2009 Time Spent% of Total Media Consumption Time or Advertising Spending

Ad Spend

50% 40% 39% 30% 20% 10% 0% Print Radio TV Internet 12% 26% 16% 9% 31% 28%

~$50BGlobal Opportunity

13%

Note: Time spent data per NA Technographics (2009), ad spend data per VSS, Internet advertising opportunity assumes online ad spend share matches time spent share, per Yahoo!. Source: Yahoo! Investor Day, 5/10.

25 25

Advertising $s Follow Eyeballs Ad Revenue per User = $46 in 2009E vs. $0 in 1994E

1995E

2009E

Global Internet Ad Revenue

$55MM

$54B $46 1.2B

Ad Revenue per User

$9

Global Internet Users

6MM

Source: Global online ad revenue per Juniper Communications (1995), ZenithOptimedia (2009). Internet users per Morgan Stanley estimat

Click here to load reader

Embed Size (px)
Recommended