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KSU Agriculture Today Radio Notes
Daniel O’Brien, Extension Agricultural Economist, Kansas State University
For Radio Program to be aired 10:00-10:15 a.m., Friday, January 13, 2017
I. Grain Futures Closes, Changes & Carry on Thursday, January 12, 2017
Corn Futures Soybean Futures Kansas HRW Wheat Futures
Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change Carry/mo Month Close Change
Mar 17 $3.58 ¼ $0.01 --- Jan 17 $10.32 $0.29 --- Mar 17 $4.44 ¾ $0.13 ---
May 17 $3.64 ¾ $0.0075 $0.0325 Mar 17 $10.40 ¼ $0.2875 $0.04125 May 17 $4.56 ¾ $0.1325 $0.06
July 17 $3.71 ¾ $0.0075 $0.0350 May 17 $10.49 $0.2850 $0.04375 July 17 $4.68 ¾ $0.14 $0.06
Sept 17 $3.78 ¾ $0.0075 $0.0350 July 17 $10.55 ¼ $0.2750 $0.03175 Sept 17 $4.82 ¼ $0.13 $0.0675
Dec 17 $3.86 $0.0075 $0.02417 Aug 17 $10.51 ½ $0.2550 No Carry Dec 17 $4.99 ¾ $0.1175 $0.05833
Mar 18 $3.94 ¼ $0.0025 $0.0275 Sept 17 $10.33 $0.22 No Carry Mar 18 $5.09 ¾ $0.1025 $0.03333
May 18 $3.99 ½ No Change $0.02625 Nov 17 $10.16 ½ $0.1850 No Carry May 18 $5.15 ¾ $0.0875 $0.03
July 18 $4.03 ¼ $0.0150 $0.01875 Jan 18 $10.19 ¾ $0.1750 $0.01625 July 18 $5.13 ¾ $0.0650 No Carry
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II. U.S. & World Drought Monitor, Moisture Accumulations & Forecasts (Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin)
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III. Corn Market Information Daily MARCH 2017 Corn Futures
Key Corn & Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Factors: U.S. Corn Exports: “Negative” short‐term MY 2016/17 U.S. corn export shipments with “positive” long term outlook total sales Weekly Export Shipments week of 1/5/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 27.3 mb
vs 45.75 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s January 12th projn of 2.225 bb exports
Total shipments through 1/5/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 669.5 mb i.e., 30.1% of 2.225 bb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
Total sales (1/5/2017) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 1.430 bb i.e., 64.3% of 2.225 bb USDA projn w. 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
U.S. Grain Sorghum Exports: “Positive” short term MY 2016/17 grain sorghum export shipments & “neutral‐positive” long term total sales Weekly Export Shipments wk of 1/5/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 7.1 mb
vs 5.4 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s January 12th projn of 250 mb exports
Total shipments through 1/5/2017 for MY 2016/17 = 67.4 mb i.e., 27.0% of 250 mb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
Total new sales (1/5/2017) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 120.0 mb i.e., 48.0% of 250 mb USDA projn w. 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Corn Supply‐Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Crop 2007/08 16.5% S/U 12.8% S/U $4.20 /bu 13.038 bln bu 2008/09 18.3% S/U 13.9% S/U $4.06 /bu 12.043 bln bu 2009/10 17.2% S/U 13.1% S/U $3.55 /bu 13.067 bln bu 2010/11 14.5% S/U 8.7% S/U $5.18 /bu 12.425 bln bu 2011/12 14.8% S/U 7.9% S/U $6.22 /bu 12.314 bln bu 2012/13 15.3% S/U 7.4% S/U $6.89 /bu 10.755 bln bu 2013/14 18.6% S/U 9.2% S/U $4.46 /bu 13.829 bln bu 2014/15USDA 21.4% S/U 12.6% S/U $3.70 /bu 14.216 bln bu 2015/16USDA 21.9% S/U 12.7% S/U $3.61 /bu 13.601 bln bu
2016/17USDA 21.5% S/U 16.2% S/U $3.40 /bu 15.148 bln bu 2017/18USDA na 15.8% S/U **$3.50 /bu 14.060 bln bu
U.S. Grain Sorghum Supply‐Demand Fundamentals 2014/15USDA 67.6 bu/acUS 4.0% S/U $4.03 /bu 433 mln bu
2015/16USDA 76.0 bu/acUS 6.4% S/U $3.31 /bu 597 mln bu
2016/17USDA 76.5 bu/acUS 7.9% S/U $2.90 /bu 480 mln bu 2017/18USDA 67.1 bu/acUS 9.6% S/U **$3.00 /bu 362 mln bu
MARCH 2017 Corn (Daily): $3.58 ¼ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
Monthly Corn Futures Continuation
Chart
MARCH 2017 Corn: $3.58 ¼ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
$3.58$3.46
$3.18$3.09 $3.15
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IV. Wheat Market Outlook Daily MARCH 2017 HRW Futures
Monthly Kansas HRW Wheat eFutures
Wheat Export Situation:
U.S. All Wheat Exports: “Bearish” Short Term Export Shipments with “neutral‐positive” long run export prospects in “new crop” MY 2016/17 total sales
– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 6.3 mb vs 21.3 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s January 12th projn of 975 mb exports
– Total shipments through 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 549.8 mb i.e., 73.3% of 975 mb USDA projn with 61.5% of MY complete (32/52 weeks)
– Total shipments + new sales 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 784.1 mb i.e., 80% of 975 mb USDA projn with 61.5% of MY complete (32/52 weeks)
U.S. Hard Red Winter Wheat Exports: “Bearish” Shipments with “neutral‐positive” long run prospects in “new crop” MY 2016/17 total sales
– Weekly Export Shipments wk of 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 3.3 mb vs 8.0 mb /wk needed to meet USDA’s January 12th projn of 400 mb exports
– Total shipments through 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 240.1 mb i.e., 60.0% of 400 mb USDA projn with 61.5% of MY complete (32/52 weeks)
– Total shipments + new sales 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 317.6 mb i.e., 79.4% of 400 mb USDA projn with 61.5% of MY complete (32/52 weeks)
“Negative” World & U.S. Wheat S/D Fundamentals
Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports
2007/08 20.8% S/U 611.7 mmt 13.2% S/U $6.48 /bu 1,263 mln bu
2008/09 26.5% S/U 683.7 mmt 28.7% S/U $6.78 /bu 1,015 mln bu
2009/10 31.2% S/U 687.0 mmt 48.6% S/U $4.87 /bu 879 mln bu
2010/11 30.4% S/U 679.3 mmt 36.4% S/U $5.70 /bu 1,291 mln bu
2011/12 28.6% S/U 696.9 mmt 33.4% S/U $7.24 /bu 1,051 mln bu
2012/13 25.7% S/U 658.3 mmt 29.9% S/U $7.77 /bu 1,012 mln bu
2013/14 28.1% S/U 715.1 mmt 24.2% S/U $6.87 /bu 1,176 mln bu
2014/15 30.8% S/U 728.3 mmt 37.3% S/U $5.99 /bu 864 mln bu
2015/16USDA 33.8% S/U 735.5 mmt 50.0% S/U $4.89 /bu 775 mln bu
2016/17USDA 34.2% S/U 751.3 mmt 53.3% S/U $3.80 /bu 975 mln bu
2017/18USDA na na 47.0% S/U $4.00 /bu 975 mln bu
MAR 2017 KC Wheat (Daily) $4.44 ¾ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
MAR 2017 KC Wheat$4.44 ¾ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
$4.45$4.71
Monthly KS HRW Wheat
Futures Continuation
Chart
$3.97
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VI. Soybean Market Outlook Daily MARCH 2017 Soybean Futures
Monthly Soybean eFutures
Daily MAR 2017 Soybeans $10.40 ¼ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
Key Soybean Supply‐Demand Issues:
U.S. Soybean Exports: “Bullish” short run export shipments in MY 2016/17 and “positive” total sales o Export Shipments for week of 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 52.6 mb
vs 23.0 mb/wk needed to meet USDA’s January 12th projn of 2.050 bb exports
o Total shipments through 1/5/2017 for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 1.269 bln bu i.e., 61.8% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
o Total new sales (1/5/2017) for “new crop” MY 2016/17 = 1,775.5 mb i.e., 86.6% of 2.050 bb USDA projn with 34.6% of MY complete (18/52 weeks)
World & U.S. Soybean Supply‐Demand Fundamentals Mktg Yr World % S/U World Crop U.S. % S/U U.S. $/bu U.S. Exports
2007/08 22.9% S/U 219.0 mmt 6.7% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.159 bln bu
2008/09 19.3% S/U 212.0 mmt 4.5% S/U $ 9.97 /bu 1.279 bln bu
2009/10 25.2% S/U 260.5 mmt 4.5% S/U $ 9.59 /bu 1.499 bln bu
2010/11 27.7% S/U 264.3 mmt 6.6% S/U $11.30 /bu 1.505 bln bu
2011/12 20.3% S/U 240.6 mmt 5.4% S/U $12.50 /bu 1.365 bln bu
2012/13 21.0% S/U 268.6 mmt 4.5% S/U $14.40 /bu 1.328 bln bu
2013/14 22.4% S/U 282.5 mmt 2.7% S/U $13.00 /bu 1.638 bln bu
2014/15 25.9% S/U 319.8 mmt 5.0% S/U $10.10 /bu 1.842 bln bu
2015/16USDA 24.5% S/U 313.5 mmt 5.0% S/U $ 8.95 /bu 1.936 bln bu
2016/17USDA 24.9% S/U 337.9 mmt 10.2% S/U $ 9.50 /bu 2.050 bln bu 2017/18USDA na na 8.0% S/U *$ 9.55 /bu 2.100 bln bu
JAN 2017 Soybeans $10.40 ¼ on Th., Jan. 12, 2017
$10.40
$8.44 ¼ $7.76 ¼
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