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GoalsFramework for Viral Communications ResearchAnalogy and insight from viral systems in biologyDefining and finding a metric for measuring viralnessProvide guidelines and foresight in designing viral radios, systems and applications
Viral Systems
ScalableSuccessful Adoption
Viral
Ad-Hoc
Grassroots
Biological VirusesSurface receptor molecules (Openness, API’s, User Interface)
Enable them to initiate infection by binding to specific host-cell membrane molecules
Antibody (Incompatibility, Difficulty in Adoption)Prevents the binding of viral particles to host cells
Viral control (Immunity, Pricing, Regulations)Cell mediated immune mechanism
Interfere host defenses (Cascades, Social Influences)Proteins that enable viruses to replicate more effectively amidst host antiviral defenses
New infectious strains (Replication, Reinvention)Mutations that escape immune attack by constantly changing their antigens (AIDS, 65 times faster than influenza virus)
Viral ArchitectureHost
Nodes and connections (wireless, wired, social, mixture)Protocol between nodesExtra layers for viral communication
VirusApplications, devices, technologiesGrassroots: edge driven, no central control
ReplicationNot only technical but also socialScalability: Increasing rate of participating entities or social adoption
ImmunityControllability of reproduction/survival ratesLaw, policy, pricing
Cascade/Chain ElementsMore cell phones More SMS Use Cheaper SMS Services802.11 Laptops
Open Endedness/ReinventionExtensible, modifiable, plug-ins
Our WorkCooperative radios - building a hostVidTorrent - layering a host on top of the Internet Radio Flash - building an ad-hoc host for small data apps and local collaborationSoftware Radios - a way to build a host wireless network, allowing viral apps over wireless, viral use of spectrum
Viral Architecture
ApplicationSystem
Physical Network
Social Network
Cooperative RadiosRadio Flash
NetworkVidTorrentPeers Network
TV Program Sharing
TV Program Fans
Software Radio
Viral Architecture
1, 2. Host - Virus3. Replication4. Immunity5. Cascade/Chain Elements6. Open Endedness/Reinvention
1,2. Host-Virus Relationship
BloggingEmail/WebInstant MessagingSkypePeer to Peer mechanismsSMS/IM on Cell phonesMP3’s, MP3 Players
WebInternetInternet/PCBroadband/PCBroadbandCellphonePC/Disk Space
VirusHost
Altair 8800 and Basic (1975)
SMS
250 billion25 billion2004150 billion1.65 billion20.5 billion200350 billion1.3 billion16.8 billion200210 billion1.202 billion12.2 billion20012 billion992 million6.2 billion2000
705 million1 billion1999ChinaFinlandUK
SMS Messages
1998 2001 2002 2003
China
Other countries such as US, developing countries
Intercarrier capability
1 bil
300 bil
50 bil
100 bil
150 bil
200 bil
MMS, other data services
3. ReplicationEasy in software
Days for turn aroundDifficult in hardware unless centralized
Infrastructure investment is 10 year turn aroundMedia Lab pioneering personal fabrication
Protocols needed for replication and scalabilityNot JUST replication, but interested in communication of replicated partsSoftware Radios – programmability to radiosMore replication, more gain, more scalable
Blogs
New Blogs
Mainstream Media vs. Blog
4. ImmunitySystem level
Incompatibility Preventing/controlling of spread and replicationEx: FirewallsEx: Mobile Devices - Lacking common platform: Symbian, PocketPC, Embedded Linux, Proprietary
Social levelLaw/policy, price, culturePrivacyReluctance for changeDifficulty in deployment by individuals
FireFox Web Browser
Browser War
5. Cascade Elements
Breaking the Immunity BarrierLaptop – 802.11Telephones – Cell phonesE-mail – Instant Messaging – VoiceSMS – E-mail – BlackberryWeb Content – Search enginesBroadband – Music, Video sharing
Blackberry Adoption
1999 2001 2002 2003
GPRS integration
CDMA, iDen
Mobile E-mail Access50,000
1 mil
100,000
500,000
This is a device!
Better input UI, Nokia Devices, WLAN
3G, EDGE
2004
6. Openness and ReinventionInherent programmabilityOpen source software
GNU Linux OS, Apache WebserverGoogle, Yahoo Search API’sPersonalization
Mini HomepagesBlogs
Web applications – content and applicationsInstant Messaging – User management, expressivenessSMS – New expressions, link with other applications
Raw
Mini Hompages
Viral Architecture
1, 2. Host - Virus3. Replication4. Immunity5. Cascade/Chain Elements6. Open Endedness/Reinvention
CasesPast/Present/Future?PresentPast
May beViralNot Viral
Kind of√Reinvention
√√Immunity
maybe√Cascade
√√hardwareReplication
√√√Virus
√√√Host
VoIPSkypeTelephone
Telephony before 1969Host
Telephone circuit switched network (long term investment)Virus
PhoneReplication
HardwareCascade
NoneImmunity
No immunity. It was the only way.Reinvention
None
Key Turning Points at the end of the Bell Monopoly
1957 – Hushaphone Decision
1968 – Carterphone Decision
Allows non-telcoequipment to be added
to the network
Opened the door for competition, answering
machines, fax machines, modems,
etc.
From Jamie Cooley
Telephony after 1969Host
Telephone circuit switched network (long term investment)Virus
Voice, Fax, ModemReplication
HardwareCascade
Dial up InternetImmunity
It was the only way, now mobile phonesReinvention
Answering machine (end user)Call forwarding (central)
SkypeHost
Peer to peer network, PC’s, PDA, InternetVirus
Skype ApplicationReplication
Software download, multi platformCascade
Broadband, PC, Laptop, Instant MessagingImmunity
Mobility, pay to call out, reliabilityReinvention
Up to 5 user conferencing (better than 3 way calling)API availableVideo4skypeSoftware
Skype
Broadband
PC Laptop
P2P
Skype Usage Graph (2003)
Skype Statistics
Feb 2005100 million downloads35 million registered users9.9 billion minutes served
VoIPHost
Broadband, cellular, telephone networkCell Phones, Blackberry (business user oriented), WiMax
VirusVoIP phone
ReplicationDevice manufacturer, infrastructure (access point)Asterisk Open Source soft PBX, DUNDi Open Source P2P call routing
CascadeWiFi, WiMax – VoIP?
ImmunityDon’t want multiple phones, roamability, no relative advantage
ReinventionSoft switch, new applications on phoneOpen source software
Phone Cell
VoIP
WiFi WiMax?
VoIP MarketCascade on Cable/DSL, WiFi, WiMaxSoftswitches
4.1 million VoIP subscribers by end of 2005These subscribers will spend around $1 billion on their VoIP home servicesWorldwide softswitch revenue is up 4% from 4Q04 and 63% from 1Q04
Can we go beyond lowering price? New audio based services?
Viral Systems
ScalableSuccessful Adoption
Viral
Ad-Hoc
Grassroots
Social Factors Viral AdoptionIndividual Needs and Tastes
Relative Advantage, PriceGeneral user interface (Complexity)TrialabilityFashion, Self expressionAdopter category (innovator, early adopter, early majority, late majority, laggards)
Social InfluencesObservabilityPeer pressure (from friends)People’s need to communicate (Aisling)Networked/Connectedness of the host – existence of communication channelsCommunities/Support groups (developers/users)
Cultural CompatibilityHomophily and Heterophily (Compatibility)Going with crowd (the need to keep up with the crowd)Family (values, relationships, openness)Nationality (cell phones)Traditions (more willing to share, less willing to share)Organizational - Corporations (i.e. adopting wireless)
Future WorkModels based on epidemiology that model the dynamics of viral systemsLessons that can be used to exploit the wireless spectrumViral system implementation based on viral architectureLatent viruses?Open for suggestions, extensions, modifications
ConclusionViral system design principles from biological viral system
1. Host2. Virus3. Replication4. Immunity5. Cascade/Chain Elements6. Open Endedness/Reinvention
Social considerations for successful viral adoption and innovation (viral in a good way).Business success does not require opening up everything, but for future continual growth, opening up is necessary for viral innovation and adoption.
QuestionsCan we predict viralness?How is it distinguishable from evolutionary development (just scaling)?
End user contributionCan we come up with a measurement of viralness?
Adoption rate doubling every regular time frame?Can we design for viralness?
Viral architectureCan we capitalize on it?
New opportunities always created when things are more open for innovation
