l10 Strategic

8/13/2019 l10 Strategic

1/80

ESD.36J System & Project Management

Dynamics of Project Performance+-

Strategic Issues in ProjectPreparation and Planning

SD Class Five (10/7/03)Copyright 2003James M. Lyneis


2/80

+

- Topics

Homework Review and Module One

Wrapup

Project Management A StrategicView

Managing Project Dynamics -Project Preparation and Planning

Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 2


3/80

+

- Topics


Wrapup





4/80

+

- Homework Assignments HW1: Network Planning Techniques HW2: Task based DSM HW3: Design a Project Organization

HW4: SD verify Brooks law HW5: Case study comparison HW6: SD project adapation

Discuss MasterSolution



5/80

+

- HW1 SolutionUAV Project

Reducing Critical Path [Kerzner]: Transferring resources to critical paths Elimination of some parts of the project Addition of more resources Substitution of less time-consuming tasks Parallelization of activities Shortening critical path activities Shortening early activities Shortening longest activities

Shortening easiest activities Shortening activities least costly to speed up Increasing the number of work hours per day

(EF) June 4, 2008Copyright 2003

10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 5


6/80

+

- HW1 Solution (cont.)

(EF) June 6, 2008

GFEengineSetting target dates for

suppliers:

GFEday 29 Engineday 44 (51)

Probability of finishing byday 100

TE(m)=20, TV(m)=4 TE(n)=25, TV(n)=25 z=(100-110)/sqrt(29)=-1.86 Probability 3.1%



7/80

+

- HW2 Solution DSMItems 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

1! Requirement definition

1

l

b

2! Engine specification 1 c 1

3! Vehicle layout 1 d 14! GFE interface 1 e 1

5! Fuselage design 1 1 1 f 1

6! Wing design 1 g 1

7! Avionics design 1 1 h 1

8! Empennage design 1 i

9! Engine delivery 1 j

10! Vehicle integration 1 1 1 k

11! GFE delivery 1

12! Ground testing 1 m

13! Flight testing 1 n

Artifact of sequencingDesign processFeedback additions



8/80

-10/7/03 8

+

-

2003

HW2 Solution (cont.)BCDEFGHIJKLM

N

BCDE

FGHIJKLM

N

ESD.36J SPMCopyright

James M. Lyneis


9/80

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- HW2 Solution (cont.)Airframe Equipment

Design InstallationItems

1! Requirement definition

3! Vehicle layout

5! Fuselage design

8! Empennage design Unplanned6! Wing design Iterations4! GFE interface

7! Avionics design

2! Engine specification

9! Engine delivery

11! GFE delivery

10! Vehicle integration

12! Ground testing

13! Flight testing

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 13

b

1 d 1

1 f 1 1 1

1 i 11 g 1

1 e 1

1 h 1

1 c 1

1 j

1 l

1 1 1 1 k

1 1 1 m

1 1 1 n

Integration

and Test

PlannedIterations



10/80

+

-

Wrapup Discussion for Module 1(Methods and Tools)



11/80

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- Critical Path Method/PERT

critical path0 C,20 20 20

E,20 F,4040 40 80

Finish

S=0 A,0 0

Start

G,2080 H,0100 100 F=100

0 B,10 10 20 D,30 50



12/80

+

- What is CPM useful for?



13/80

1

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- Design Structure Matrix1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60Set customer targetEstimate sales volumesEstablish pricing directionSchedule project timelineDevelopment methodsMacro targets/constraintsFinancial analysisDevelop program mapCreate initial QFD matrixSet technical requirementsWrite customer specificationHigh-level modelingWrite target specificationDevelop test planDevelop validation planBuild base prototypeFunctional modelingDevelop product modules

Lay out integrationIntegration modelingRandom testingDevelop test parametersFinalize schematicsValidation simulationReliability modelingComplete product layoutContinuity verificationDesign rule checkDesign package

Generate masksVerify masks in fabRun wafersSort wafersCreate test programsDebug productsPackage productsFunctionality testingSend samples to customersFeedback from customersVerify sample functionalityApprove packaged productsEnvironmental validationComplete product validationDevelop tech. publicationsDevelop service coursesDetermine marketing nameLicensing strategyCreate demonstrationConfirm quality goalsLife testingInfant mortality testingMfg. process stabilizationDevelop field support planThermal testingConfirm process standardsConfirm package standardsFinal certificationVolume productionPrepare distribution networkDeliver product to customers

10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM 13

x x

x x x

x x

x

x x

x x

x x

x

x x x

x x x x x O O O O

x x x x x x x

x x xx x x x x x

x x x x

x x

x x x O O O O O O

x x x O

x x x

x x x x x x x x

x x x

x x

x x x x O O O O O

x x x x x x

x x

x x x x

x x

x x x

x x x x x O O O O

x x O

x x x

x x O

x

x

x x x x x O O O O

x x x

x x x

x x x x

x

x

x x

x x x x

x x

x x x x

x x x

x x

x x x

x x x x

x x x

x x x x x

x x x x x

x x x O O

x x

x x x

x x x

x x x x x x

x

x x

x x x

x x x x

x = Information Flows = Planned Iterations O = Unplanned Iterations = Generational Learning

Concurrent Activity Blocks

Potential Iterations

Generational Learning

Sequential Activities

x x x

x x x x

x x x x x

x x x

x x

O O O O

x x x x x x x x

x x x x

x x x x x x x x x x O O O O

x x x x x x

x x x x x x

x x

x x

x x x x x x x x

x x x

x x x

x x x x

x x x

x x x x

O O O

x x x

O O O

x x

x x x

x x x x

x x

x x

x x x x x x x x x x

x x

x x x x x

x x x x x


14/80

+

- What is DSM useful for?



15/80

+

-System Dynamics

External factors; management responses; side effects

ity

ApparentProgress

CustomerChanges Schedule

Acceleration

Work, Worksite

Congestion,CoordinationProblems,

Employee Skill

Fatigue,Burnout

Overtime

Hiring

ScopeGrowth

UndiscoveredReworkKnownRework

Work

Really Done

Work

To Be Done

Progress

ReworkDiscovery

People Productiv Quality

Out-of-Sequence

Morale Problems

Average

and Quality



16/80

+

- What is SD useful for?



17/80

+

- SPM Methods OverviewPERT DSM SD

CPM

(+)

strength

Detailed

Planning

Critical path

identification

Captures

iterations

Meta-tasks

Architecture-

task mapping

Explores

dynamic

drivers

Informs PM

actions

(-)weakness

No iterationsNo connection

to organization

Operationalplanning

individual taskmodels

impractical



18/80

Class

Schedule(refer to

syllabus)

ModuleBusiness2

+

-

12/4 Presentations 212/2 Presentations 1

11/25 No Class

11/20 Success Factors

11/13 Concurrency11/11 Veterans Day

11/6 Project Adaptation11/4 Project Tracking

10/30 Risk Management10/28 Critical Path

10/23 Case 3: H/W&S/W10/21 Case 2: H/W

10/16 Case 1: S/W10/14 ICE Methods

10/9 PDPs10/7 Strategic Issues

10/2 Managing9/30 Project Simulation

9/25 Feedback & Rework

9/18 Project Organization9/16 Iterations DSM

9/11 Task-based DSM9/9 Network Techniques

11/27 Thanksgiving

11/18 Project Metrics

Dynamics

9/23 System Dynamics 1

Trip

Note twoNo Class3-hour

classes

in

DecemberCopyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 18


19/80

+

-

System Project Management

ESD.36 Framework

ProjectPreparation Project

Planning

ProjectAdaptation

Project

Monitoring

Enterprise has

chosen what productor system to develop

Ref: J. Warmkessel



20/80

+

- Topics


Wrapup





21/80

+

- Framework

Project

Preparation

Project

Planning

Project

Execution

Project

Adaptation

Doing the right job

Doing the job right



22/80

+

-

What is strategy as it applies to

an individual project (vs. corporate

strategy as it applies to projectsand the project portfolio)?



23/80

+

-

Corporate Strategy for the Project

Determining the fit of the project to businessobjectives (the mission doing the right job)

features / scope of end product schedule milestones (time to market) delivered quality (defects) resources & budget (development cost)And the mix/timing of projects necessary to achieve

corporate strategy

Operationally, projects implementcorporate strategy.



24/80

+

-Mission Dimensions

Priority & Specific ObjectivesHigh, Stretch Low, Slack

Features / Scope

Defects/ Undiscovered

Rework

Resources / Cost

Time-to-Market/

Schedule

Medium

Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis


25/80

+

-Strategic Project Management

Understanding how project design decisionsaffect project performance Scope/schedule/ ... (i.e., mission) Organization, process, ... Buffers, phase overlap, ... Staffing strategies, schedule slip, ... ...

and how they affect other current projects(portfolio issues), and future projects.

Operationally, day-to-day projectdecisions implement project strategy.



26/80

+

-Process & Organization Issues

Waterfall vs. spiral vs. ...Autonomous team vs. functional (&

therefore multiple projects per person?)

Integrated product teams? System vs. modules (?) How much to subcontract, make vs. buy



27/80

+

-Staffing Issues

How much to rely on overtime (vs.adding staff)?

Should you pay extra for experience? Generalists vs. specialists? Co-location vs. geographically

dispersed (vs. not getting enough

people, local content, ?) How much training How much is it worth to reduce attrition?



28/80

+

-Strategic vs Operational Decisions

Operational Strategic



29/80

+

-

Strategic Project Management Pertains

to Both Preparation & Planning

2003

Project

Preparation

Project

Planning

Project

Execution

Project

Adaptation

Doing the right job

Doing the job right

Strategic Project

Management

Copyright10/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 29


30/80

+

- Topics


Wrapup

Project Management A Strategic

View




31/80

+

-

Typical project dynamics ...

ProjectStaffing

Typical

Plan

... Result inschedule

&/or budget

overrun

TimeCopyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 31


32/80

+

-

Project dynamics from Homework 4:

Graph for Staff Level60

45

30

15

0

Plan

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Staff Level : Class4 Hire 100 People

Staff Level : Class4 Hire 0 People

Staff Level : Class4 People



33/80

+

-

Strategic Project Management

What can we do to avoid/minimize thedynamics ...

in project preparation (design) andproject planning?

in project execution and adaptation(e.g., risk management and change

management)?



34/80

+

-

2003

Work Qualityto Date

ScheduledCompletion

Time

ExpectedCompletion

Time

Availabilityof Prerequisites

Progress

Pressure

Out-of-SequenceWork

Morale

Hours atCompletion

HoursExpended

to Date

Skill &Experience

Hiring

EquivalentStaff onProject

StaffingRequested

TurnoverOrganizational

Changes

Staff

Quality

Added

WorkWork

Overtime

TimeRemaining

Be Done

How do the dynamics get started?

Copyright

Perceived

Schedule

ExpectedProgress

ReworkDiscovery

Size

Productivity

Obsoleted

Work To

Undiscovered

Rework

Known

Rework

Work

Really Done



35/80

+

-

How Does It Get Started?

Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/defects/budget)

Late changes and other risks

Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex

(vs. simple) projects



36/80

+

-

2003

Work Qualityto Date

ScheduledCompletion

Time

ExpectedCompletion

Time

Availabilityof Prerequisites

Progress

SchedulePressure

Out-of-SequenceWork

Morale

Hours atCompletion

HoursExpended

to Date

Skill &Experience

Hiring

EquivalentStaff onProject

StaffingRequested

TurnoverOrganizational

Changes

Staff

Quality

Added

WorkWork

Overtime

TimeRemaining

Be Done

How does it get started?

Copyright

Perceived

ExpectedProgress

ReworkDiscovery

Size

Productivity

Obsoleted

Work To

Undiscovered

Rework

Known

Rework

Work

Really Done



37/80

+

-



Late changes and other risks

Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex

(vs. simple) projects



38/80

+

-

Mission Dimensions

Priority & Specific ObjectivesHigh, Stretch Low, Slack

Features / Scope

Defects/ Undiscovered

Rework

Resources / Cost

Time-to-Market/

Schedule

Medium

What should the objectives be?

How many can be high priority?Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis

+


39/80

+

-

Consistent Project Can Achieve the Plan

Scope = 100 (tasks) Scheduled Completion Date = 30

(month) (vs. 27 in Class4 model)

Delivered Quality > 99% Staff = 4 (people) Normal Quality = .95 (fraction) (vs. .85

in Class4 model)


+


40/80

+

-

Staff & Progress

100 Task6 People

75 Task

4.5 People

50 Task

3 People

25 Task

1.5 People

0 Task

0 People0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Work Done : Plan Task

Staff Level : Plan People



41/80

+


42/80

+

-

Quality

1

0.95

0.9

0.85

0.8

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Plan FractionEffect of Prior Work Quality on Quality : Plan Fraction

Effect of Experience on Quality : Plan Fraction

Effect of Schedule Pressure on Quality : Plan Fraction


+ Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate


43/80

+

-

Inconsistent Projects Can Initiate

the Dynamics

Plan Work 125 [Scope = 125 initial tasks (vs100)]

Plan Schedule 22 [Scheduled completiondate = 22.5 (vs 30)]

Plan Staff 3 [Staff = 3 people until past 50%complete (vs 4); this might also reflect

resource constraints as well as poor or

aggressive planning]. Plan Quality 85 [Normal Quality = .85 (vs

.95)]


+


44/80

+

-

Graph for Staff Level

20

15

10

5

0

Plan

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Staff Level : Plan People

Staff Level : Plan Work 125 People

Staff Level : Plan Schedule 22 People

Staff Level : Plan Staff 3 People

Staff Level : Plan Quality 85 People


+

Wh t k it ?


45/80

What makes it worse?

- TimeRemaining

Skill &Experience

Staff

Morale Organizational Turnover HiringSize

Changes

Overtime

Schedule Staffing

ScheduledCompletion

Out-of-Sequence

Pressure Equivalent Requested

Productivity QualityStaff on

Time Project

WorkHours

ExpendedProgressExpected to Date ExpectedWorkCompletion Availability

Work To

Be Done Really Done Hours atTime of Prerequisites Added Completion

Work ObsoletedKnown Undiscovered WorkWork Quality

to DateRework Rework

ReworkDiscovery

PerceivedProgress


+ What makes it worse?


46/80

-

Graph for Quality

1

0.75

0.5

0.25

0

Quality on Quality

Feedback


Plan

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction

Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Fraction

Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Fraction

Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Fraction

Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Fraction


+ What makes it worse?


47/80

-

Graph for Effect of Experience on Quality

1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

Experience on

Quality Feedback


Plan

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Dimensionless

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Scope 125 Dimensionless

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Schedule 22 Dimensionless

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Staff 3 Dimensionless

Effect of Experience on Quality : Class 5 Plan Quality 85 Dimensionless


+ Trying to achieve inconsistent


48/80

-

Trying to achieve inconsistent

objectives can lead to disasterTest Finish Cost(person-mos)Plan 29.875 116.7Increase Scope 33.125 211.3 (vs. 145

to 125 budget)

Reduce 27.6 194.7

Schedule to 22.5Reduce Initial 34 193.0Staff to 3

35.8 213.5

Normal Q = .85

With end result worse (schedule/cost) than if project

budgeted higher at startCopyright


+ What is implicit lower priority in above


49/80

-

p p y

simulations (and Homework 4 model)?

Adding staff, and therefore cost. Based on homework, can this ever

work?

How often do you believe thoseconditions exist?

Copyright


+


50/80

-



Late changes and other risks Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex(vs. simple) projects

Copyright


+ Late Project Changes Can Create


51/80

-

j g

the Dynamics As Well

Changes 20% of tasks done obsoleted at month 15 Put into undiscovered rework (what needs

to be redone often not completely known

when change is made).

Copyright


+ Work Done


52/80

-

Graph for Work Done

100

75

50

25

0

0 3 6 9

Work Done ...

Changes

12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Work Done : Class 5 Plan Task

Work Done : Class 5 Changes Task

Copyright



53/80

+

Quality


54/80

Graph for Quality-

Quality ...1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

Changes

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Class 5 Plan Fraction

Quality : Class 5 Changes Fraction

Copyright


+

H D It G t St t d?


55/80

-


Inconsistent mission(scope/schedule/budget)

Late changes and other risks Quality problems

These are characteristics of complex(vs. simple) projects

Copyright


+ What causes project quality


56/80

- problems?

Remember, quality as used in themodel is any work done incorrectly orincompletely, regardless of cause

Copyright



57/80

+ What are differences between changes

d lit bl ?


58/80

-

and quality problems?

Changes represent truly unknowable,uncontrollable, exogenous impacts(though the fact that they often happenmight be planned for)

competitor introduces a new feature ...

Quality problems can be anticipatedand dealt with in the design andmanagement of the project

buffers, prototypes, process, ...Copyright 2003


+How can we design a project that minimizes


59/80

-

g p j

the chances of the dynamics getting started?

Consistent mission? Reflects typical quality problems?

Accounts for possible changes andrisks?

Note: Source of problem affects solution


+ Strategic Project Management Pertains to


60/80

- Both Preparation & Planning

Project

Preparation

Project

Planning

Project

Execution

Project

Adaptation

Doing the right job

Doing the job right

Strategic Project

Management


+



61/80

-


Establishing project designparameters -

Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy Phase overlap & concurrency What to measure, monitor, and exert

pressure on ...


+

Strategic Project Design


62/80

-

Strategic Project Design

Given the mission objectives, what is theproject likely to cost and when will it finish(given prior experience)? What risks mightthe project face?

How can we optimize the tradeoff amongscope/schedule/budget in meeting theprojects mission? What will it really cost meto finish earlier, add features, .

What changes in process, organization, etc. might improve the tradeoff.


+How many people feel that on the typical project

i i i b d d h d l


63/80

-in your organization, budget and schedule are

More than is needed __________

Just right __________

Tight, but manageable __________

Insufficient enough that the vicious circles aresignificant __________


+

Why Wont We Develop a Realistic Plan?


64/80

-

Why Won t We Develop a Realistic Plan?


+

Lessons


65/80

-

Lessons

Getting a feasible project design is thefirst step to avoiding adverse projectdynamics

Prior projects are the best source ofinformation with which to design arobust project

There is an optimal tradeoff amongscope, budget, schedule, and delivered

defectsCopyright 2003


+ How can we design a project that minimizes the

chances of the dynamics getting started?


66/80

-

chances of the dynamics getting started?

Consistent mission? Reflects typical quality problems?

Accounts for possible changes andrisks?

Note: Source of problem affects solution


+



67/80

-

g j g

Establishing project design

parameters - Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy

Strategic Phase overlap & concurrency Project

Planning? What to measure, monitor,and exert pressure on

... Copyright 200310/7/03 - ESD.36J SPM James M. Lyneis 67

+

Selected Issues in Project Planning


68/80

-Selected Issues in Project Planning

Selecting the process model Defining teams and responsibilitiesActivity planning and resource allocation Scheduling Determining what to measure, monitor,

exert pressure on (reward)

Identifying risks and mitigation plans


+

Strategic Process & Organization Issues


69/80

-g g

Waterfall vs. spiral vs. adaptive vs. ?Autonomous (dedicated) integrated

product team vs. functional? System vs. modules? How much phase overlap and

concurrency?

How much to subcontract, make vs.buy?


+

Strategic Staffing Issues


70/80

-S g S g

How much to rely on overtime (vs.adding staff)?

Should you pay extra for experience? Generalists vs. specialists? Co-location vs. geographically

dispersed?

How much training?

How much is it worth to reduce attrition?Copyright 2003


+


71/80

-

How do we assess what is rightfor out project?


+ How do we assess what is right


72/80

-

for our project?System Dynamics Approach: Model the project with current processes, policies, Specify the direct impacts of alternatives (steady

state vs. dynamic) on - Scope productivity quality rework discovery strength of productivity and quality effects ...[Secondary impacts assessed via simulation]

Simulate and compare performance


+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.

Functional: Autonomous Teams ...


73/80

- Functional: Autonomous Teams ...

Pros Cons


+ Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.

Functional: Sample Test


74/80

- Functional: Sample Test

Integrated Teams:

Improve normal quality to 0.925 (from 0.85because diverse members of team capture

mistakes before they happen)

Reduce Maximum rework discovery time to4 months (from 12 months)

Reduce Normal productivity to .9 (from 1

because multiple team member slowprogress, more review, discussion, )


+

-

Graph for Staff Level

20


75/80

-

15

10

5

0

Plan

Functional

Product Team

Integrated

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Staff Level : Class6 Plan People

Staff Level : Class6 Waterfall People

Staff Level : Class6 Integrated Teams People


+

-

Graph for Quality

1


76/80

0.75

0.5

0.25

0

Plan

Functional

Product Team

Integrated

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Time (Month)

Quality : Class6 Plan Fraction

Quality : Class6 Waterfall Fraction

Quality : Class6 Integrated Teams Fraction


+

-

Graph for Undiscovered Rework

40


77/80

30

20

10

0

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60

Plan

Functional

Product Team

Integrated

Time (Month)

Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Plan Task

Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Waterfall Task

Undiscovered Rework : Class6 Integrated Teams Task


+

-

Autonomous Integrated Teams vs.

Functional


78/80

TestPlanFunctional

Integrated

Product Team

Finish Cost(person-mos)

29.875 116.738.875 263.3

31.625 189.38


+

-Conclusions re. Integrated Teams


79/80

An integrated product team or similarorganization structure can improve

performance if project conditions would

otherwise cause significant undiscovered

rework

The benefits of these structures increase withthe uncertainty (risk), and likely project

overrun with traditional development

approaches

Cautions ...Copyright 2003


+

-Strategic Project Management


80/80

Establishing project design parameters - Consistent mission Development process Organization structure (?) Staffing strategy Phase overlap & concurrency What to measure, monitor, and exert pressure on ...

Next SD class well deal with the other

design issuesCopyright 2003


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