Source: EMSI Q2 2019; *social profiles” refers to data from online social profile platforms, updated since 2018. Post-secondary degrees from institutes within the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA include Associates degrees or higher. SUMMER 2019 LABOR MARKET DIGEST DATA SPOTLIGHT: Talent Migration Top Non-Virginia Cities Where the Region’s Post-Secondary Degree Holders Migrate 2.0% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% 4.1% 4.9% 7.6% 22.1% San Francisco, CA Chicago, IL Balmore, MD Los Angeles, CA Raleigh, NC Philadelphia, PA Charloe, NC Atlanta, GA New York, NY Washington, DC Top Occupations from Social Profiles of persons located out of the MSA who received their degree from an in-region Higher Education institution. Chief Executives Managers, All Other Postsecondary Teachers General and Operations Managers Computer User Support Specialists Lawyers Supervisors of Office and Admin. Support Workers Marketing Managers Financial Managers Registered Nurses Every year more than 22 thousand degrees requiring 2 years of study or more are awarded by higher education institutions within the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA. Graduates serve to fill the regional workforce talent pipeline. The 2019 Hampton Roads Talent Alignment Strategy moves to address a large cohort of mid-career professionals who choose to continue their career outside of the region. The included workforce analysis reveals the largest contractions of population out- migration occurred in primary working ages of 35 to 44 over a 15 years period, 2002 to 2017 (-20.4%). In the process of addressing talent out-migration, the region must consider where talent is going. The flow of regional talent to major in-state population hubs is generally lucid; however, 32 of the top 50 cities where degree holders from regional institutions move are out-of-state. The map above highlights social profiles by non-VA city where degree holders are located who graduated from a regional institution. The largest percentage of graduates in non-VA cities are in Washington D.C. (22.1%), followed by New York (7.6%). Visit www.hreda.com/blogs for a full analysis. Interactive map and full blog available at https://www.hreda.com/news-media/blog/ LABOR MARKET DIGEST
Transcript
Source: EMSI Q2 2019; *social profiles” refers to data from online social profile platforms, updated since 2018. Post-secondary degrees from institutes within the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA include Associates degrees or higher.
SUMMER 2019
LABOR MARKET DIGESTDATA SPOTLIGHT:
Talent MigrationTop Non-Virginia Cities Where the Region’s Post-Secondary Degree Holders Migrate
2.0%
2.2%
2.5%
2.5%
2.7%
3.1%
4.1%
4.9%
7.6%
22.1%
San Francisco, CA
Chicago, IL
Baltimore, MD
Los Angeles, CA
Raleigh, NC
Philadelphia, PA
Charlotte, NC
Atlanta, GA
New York, NY
Washington, DC
Top
Occupations
from Social
Profiles of
persons
located out of
the MSA who
received their
degree from
an in-region
Higher
Education
institution.
Chief Executives
Managers, All Other
Postsecondary Teachers
General and Operations Managers
Computer User Support Specialists
Lawyers
Supervisors of Office and Admin. Support Workers
Marketing Managers
Financial Managers
Registered Nurses
Every year more than 22 thousand degrees requiring 2 years of study or more are awarded by higher education institutionswithin the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA. Graduates serve to fill the regional workforce talent pipeline. The 2019Hampton Roads Talent Alignment Strategy moves to address a large cohort of mid-career professionals who choose tocontinue their career outside of the region. The included workforce analysis reveals the largest contractions of population out-migration occurred in primary working ages of 35 to 44 over a 15 years period, 2002 to 2017 (-20.4%).
In the process of addressing talent out-migration,the region must consider where talent is going.The flow of regional talent to major in-statepopulation hubs is generally lucid; however, 32 ofthe top 50 cities where degree holders fromregional institutions move are out-of-state. Themap above highlights social profiles by non-VAcity where degree holders are located whograduated from a regional institution. The largestpercentage of graduates in non-VA cities are inWashington D.C. (22.1%), followed by New York(7.6%). Visit www.hreda.com/blogs for a fullanalysis.
Interactive map and full blog available at https://www.hreda.com/news-media/blog/
LABOR MARKET DIGEST
The Virginia Beach – Norfolk – Newport NewsMetropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) saw positivechange in seasonally adjusted Total NonfarmEmployment, Q1 2018 to Q1 2019. The MSA added anet 900 jobs (0.11%) in Q1 2019 over Q1 2018.Notably, the MSA’s percent change trailed both thestate and nation. After a slight decline through Q42018, the MSA recovered 4,600 jobs (0.58%) in Q12019. From a quarterly perspective, the MSA matchedits highest level of Nonfarm employment to date fromQ2 2018, reaching 792,500 jobs. Nonfarm Employmentrose to 1.6% above pre-recession peak employment;the magnitude of achievement should be tempered inconsideration that the nation grew by almost 3% overthe same period. The MSA has maintained aboveprerecession peak employment each quarter sincesurpassing that mark in Q2 2017. A net of 11,100 jobshas been added, Q2 2017 through Q1 2019.
YOY Percent & Total Change, Q1 2018 – Q1 2019
-0.29%
0.69%0.97%
MSA VA US
PERC
ENT
CHAN
GE
0.11%
0.89%
1.77%
MSA VA US
PERC
ENT
CHAN
GE
SUMMER 2019
QOQ YOY4 Quarters
RollingTotal Nonfarm Employment Civilian Labor Force Unemployment Rate Average Weekly Hours Real Hourly Earnings Arrow Up = IncreaseArrow Down = Decrease
Q4 2018Q1 2019
Q1 2018Q1 2019
Q2 ‘17 – Q1 ‘18Q2 ‘18 – Q1 ‘19
TOTAL NONFARM EMPLOYMENT
More workers are working more hours for less pay.From a quarterly perspective, Q1 2018 vs Q1 2019,seasonally adjusted Nonfarm Employment andAverage Weekly Hours Worked increased; however,Hourly Earnings (adjusted for inflation) declined.
YOY Percent & Total Change, Q1 2018 – Q1 2019
QUARTERLY WORKFORCE PERSPECTIVE
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCEThe Civilian Labor Force decreased by -2,452, Q12018 to Q1 2019. Persons available to work in theMSA, ages 16 years or older, trailed both the stateand nation year-over-year. The decline in CivilianLabor Force in contrast with increasing Total NonfarmEmployment holds with the notion that people areworking more, since the Civilian Labor Force countspeople, rather than jobs. Decrease in Civilian LaborForce (-0.29%) is also explained by year-over-yeardecline in unemployment (-0.17%), as the CivilianLabor Force includes the sum of employed andunemployed persons.
900
35,600
2.63M
-2,452
15,823
2.35M
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AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS
REAL HOURLY EARNINGS
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019
MSA 3.7 2.9 3.5
VA 3.4 2.6 3.1
US 4.1 3.8 3.9
SUMMER 2019
Q3 2009 36.0
Q4 2013 33.5
Q1 2018 34.2
Q1 2019 34.5
33.0
33.5
34.0
34.5
35.0
35.5
36.0
36.5
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK-NEWPORT NEWS MSASource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
In Q1 2019, the unemployment rate rose, up 0.57%(not seasonally adjusted) from a Q4 2018 quarterlylow not seen since Q4 2000. The increase inunemployment to 3.5% represents an additional4,977 unemployed persons in the MSA, quarter-over-quarter.
Year-over-year, the unemployment rate decreased by-0.17 percentage points, Q1 2018 to Q1 2019, adecline of -1,348 unemployed persons over theperiod.
The overall trend in unemployment is consistent withthat of both the state and the nation. Unemploymentincreased quarter-over-quarter but still maintains in asteady downward trend since Q1 2010.
Average Weekly Hours Worked continues to divergefrom the Q4 2013 trough (shown left) and is 3% abovein Q4 2019. Average Weekly Hours Worked increasedto 34.5 hours for Q1 2019. This is a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.21 hours or 12 ½ minutes, Q42018 to Q1 2019.
Comparing Q1 2019 to the year prior, hours increasedby 0.27 hours (16 minutes). Growth in weekly hours incontrast with a decline in Civilian Labor Forcesuggests a fluctuation in the workforce compositiontowards more full-time, rather than part-timeemployment. Less workers covering more hoursindicates a tightening of the labor market. Relativelylow unemployment concurs with a fluctuation inworkforce composition and a tightened labor market.
Q1 2019 inflation adjusted* Average Hourly Earningsdeclined to $20.61. This is a decrease in Real HourlyEarnings for the MSA by -$0.28/hour (-1.4% ) movingfrom Q4 2018 to Q1 2019.
State and National trends continue to diverge fromthe trend of the MSA (shown right). Q1 2018 to Q12019 Real Hourly Earnings declined -$0.94/hour (-4.4%). Both the state and the nation posted increasesover the same period of $0.48/hour and $0.37/hour,respectively.
Although down -7.6% from the most recent peak inQ1 2017, Real Hourly Earnings exceed the post-recession low of $18.81/hour by 7.9%.
$22.60
$18.81
$21.95
$20.29
$18
$19
$20
$21
$22
$23
$24
$25
Q1 2007
Q1 2008
Q1 2009
Q1 2010
Q1 2011
Q1 2012
Q1 2013
Q1 2014
Q1 2015
Q1 2016
Q1 2017
Q1 2018
Q1 2019
VIRGINIA BEACH-NORFOLK-NEWPORT NEWS MSASource: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
*Adjusted for Inflation using CPI for All Urban Consumers: All Items
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted.
-3.1
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.8
3.7
4.0
TRADE/TRANSPORT.
GOVERNMENT
INFORMATION
OTHER SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION/NAT. RESOURCES
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
FIRE
EDUCATION/HEALTH
MANUFACTURING
PROFESSIONAL/BUSINESS SERVICES
-3.1
-1.7
-0.7
-0.2
-0.2
0.2
0.5
1.8
2.0
3.2
TRADE/TRANSPORT.
GOVERNMENT
INFORMATION
EDUCATION/HEALTH
FIRE
OTHER SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION/NAT. RESOURCES
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
PROFESSIONAL/BUSINESS SERVICES
MANUFACTURING
HIGHLIGHTS
SUMMER 2019
INDUSTRY CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY SECTORIn comparing Q1 2018 to Q1 2019, employmentchange has shown greater gains in the region’sGoods Producing industries than Service Providingindustries. Manufacturing posted the greatest sectorgains period over period, adding 3,200 jobs, anincrease of 5.9%. Professional & Business servicesadded 2,000 jobs a 1.8% increase, followed by theLeisure & Hospitality sector, gaining 1,800 jobs, anincrease of 2%.
The Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (FIRE) sector,Education & Health Services sector, and Informationsectors posted moderate losses. Government lossesof -1,700 jobs represents a -1.7% decline and Trade,Transportation, & Utility losses represent a -2.3%decline of their respective sectors.
YOY Employment Change (Thousands)
Sourc
e: US
Bure
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f Lab
or St
atisti
cs, N
ot Se
ason
ally A
djuste
d
Hampton Roads Workforce Council Labor Market Digest – Summer 2019. Unless otherwise noted, data covers the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) for the three months ending December 2018(Fourth Quarter). Formerly Opportunity Inc., The Hampton Roads Workforce Council oversees federally funded workforce development programs, which assist businesses in accessing qualified workers and jobseekers in finding suitable jobopenings and bolstering their earning power through training. The Hampton Roads Workforce Council is responsible for developing workforce policy and administering workforce development initiatives in Virginia's Workforce Investment Area 16,which includes these localities: Chesapeake, Franklin, Isle of Wight, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Southampton, Suffolk and Virginia Beach. The Board conducts its operations through the "Hampton Roads Workforce Council" organization.
The Professional & Business Services sector as wellas the Manufacturing sector posted modest gains,growing 4% and 3.7%, respectively.
Trade & Transportation posted the greatest losses,declining by -3,100 jobs. The Retail Trade industrycontinues to post losses, declining more than -2,500jobs, Q1 2018 to Q1 2019, down -2.9%.
Goods Producing
Service Providing
+1.8% +0.35%
Sourc
e: US
Bure
au o
f Lab
or St
atisti
cs
Keeping the progress of a year’s timeframe in view,the chart below compares the last 4 quarters (Q22018 through Q1 2019) to the preceding 4 quarterperiod (Q2 2017 through Q1 2018).
Hampton Roads Workforce Council / Greater Peninsula Workforce Board Labor Market Digest – Summer 2019. Unless otherwise noted, data covers the Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News Metropolitan Statistical Area (“MSA”) for the three months ending December 2018 (Fourth Quarter). The Hampton Roads Workforce Council oversees federally funded workforce development programs, which assist businesses in accessing qualified workers and jobseekers in finding suitable job openings and bolstering their earning power through training. The Hampton Roads Workforce Council is responsible for developing workforce policy and administering workforce development initiatives in Virginia's Workforce Investment Area 16, which include the eight localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works - Hampton Roads Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Hampton Roads Workforce Council" organization. The Greater Peninsula Workforce Board is a group of community leaders appointed by local elected officials and tasked with planning and oversight responsibilities for workforce development programs and services within the seven localities that comprise the Virginia Career Works – Greater Peninsula Region. The Board conducts its operations through the "Greater Peninsula Workforce Council" organization.
Funded by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration, Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act. Equal Opportunity Employer/Program (Auxiliary aids and services are available upon request to individuals with disabilities.)
