Labour Market, January 2014 updateThe Scottish Parliament and
Scottish Parliament Infor mation C entre l ogos .
Financial Scrutiny Unit Briefing
14/06
Andrew Aiton
A briefing on the Office for National Statistics' January 2014
Regional Labour Market release for Scotland.
2
CONTENTS
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
.........................................................................................................................................
4
UNEMPLOYMENT
...................................................................................................................................................
4 Unemployment by gender
....................................................................................................................................
4 Unemployment by age group
...............................................................................................................................
5
EMPLOYMENT
........................................................................................................................................................
6 Employment by Gender
.......................................................................................................................................
6
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY
.........................................................................................................................................
7 Economic Inactivity by Gender
............................................................................................................................
8
CLAIMANT COUNT
.....................................................................................................................................................
9
SOURCES
..................................................................................................................................................................
18
3
SUMMARY
The unemployment rate in Scotland was 6.4% for the three months to
November 2013, down 0.9 percentage point on the previous
quarter.
The UK unemployment rate was 7.1% for the three months to November
2013, down 0.5 percentage points on the previous three
months.
The latest figures show that the number of people in work in
Scotland fell by 0.1 percentage points over the last quarter, with
the UK registering a 0.5 percentage point increase.
Economic inactivity increased in Scotland by 0.8 percentage points
with the UK down 0.1 percentage points on the previous three
months.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in
September was 3.3%. This is unchanged from the previous
month.
Key labour market indicators for Scotland (Seasonally
adjusted)
Unemployment Employment Economic Inactivity
Claimant Count
6.4% 72.7% 22.1% 3.3% For the three months to August 2013 From
previous month
4
LABOUR FORCE SURVEY
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) records the official unemployment
rate along with a wide variety of other labour market statistics.
It surveys a sample group of 60,000 households throughout the UK,
including approximately 6,000 in Scotland. LFS figures are
therefore estimates based on this sample.
UNEMPLOYMENT
The LFS uses the International Labour Organisation’s definition of
unemployment. It estimates the number of ‘people without a job who
have been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and are
available to start work within the next two weeks’ (Office for
National Statistics, 2013a). The unemployment rate is then
calculated by dividing this number by the total number of
economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and
those in work.
The Scottish unemployment rate fell by 0.9 percentage points to
6.4% for the three months to November 2013. This means there are
currently 176,000 people unemployed in Scotland the lowest level
since February 2009. The UK figure for the same period fell on the
previous quarter to 7.1%. Both Scottish and the UK unemployment
fell over both the quarter and the year.
Table 1 Unemployment (16+)
Scotland 176 -25 -31 6.4% -0.9% -1.3%
UK 2,320 -167 -172 7.1% -0.5% -0.6%
Fig. 1 shows how the unemployment rate has changed from Sep-Nov
2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish rate was below the UK rate until
Sep-Nov 2009 and since then it has remained similar to the UK rate.
The Scottish rate peaked at 8.6% in Sep-Nov 2011 with the UK rate
peaking at 8.4% during the same period.
Fig.1 Scottish and UK Unemployment Rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Unemployment by gender
Unemployment levels and rates are higher for men than for women for
the UK however in Scotland the current unemployment rate for women
is higher than men. Male unemployment fell by 16,000 while female
unemployment fell by 9,000 in the three months to November 2013 in
Scotland. The UK saw a decrease in unemployment for both men and
women over both the quarter and the year.
5
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 86 -9 +2 6.5% -0.7% -0.2%
UK Men 1,314 -106 -94 7.5% -0.6% -0.6%
Women 1,006 -61 -79 6.7% -0.4% -0.6%
Fig. 2 shows how the unemployment for both genders has changed from
Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The unemployment rate for women is
the lowest since Jun-Aug 2011 while male unemployment is the lowest
since Sep-Nov 2008. Male unemployment peaked at 10% in March-May
2010 with the female unemployment rate peaking at 8.1% in Dec-Feb
2012. Fig 2. Scottish Unemployment by Gender rates (%):
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Unemployment by age group
The following section provides information on unemployment by age
group. The chart on the right shows the proportion of total
unemployment by age group in Scotland. Table 3 shows that while the
rate of unemployment for 16-24 year-olds has fallen in the last 12
months, it remains higher than any other age group with the
Scottish rate lower that the UK. The recent drop has seen the level
fall to its lowest rate for the same period since 2011 (Dec-Feb
2011 figure was 19.6%).
Fig 3. Proportion of total unemployment by age group in
Scotland
43.7%
23.0%
16.7%
16.6%
16-24
25-34
35-49
50-64
6
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
Rate Year
change (% points)
EMPLOYMENT
The number of people in Scotland aged 16 and over in work between
September and November increased by 10,000 compared to the previous
three months which is the highest level since Mar-May 2008
(2,562,000). However the employment rate for people aged 16-64 is
down slightly compared to the previous quarter. UK employment also
increased on the previous quarter and over the year.
Table 4 Employment (amount 16+, rate 16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Scotland 2,559 +10 +90 72.7% -0.1% +2.0%
UK 30,150 +280 +450 72.1% +0.5% +0.7%
Fig 4 shows a comparison of the Scottish and UK employment rates
from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep- Nov 2013. The current employment rate in
Scotland is the highest since Dec 2008-Feb 2009 (73.2%) with the UK
rate the highest since 2008 (Sep-Nov 2008 72.3%). Fig. 4 Scottish
and UK Employment rate (%):
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Employment by Gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at
both Scottish and UK levels. The increase in employment over the
quarter was driven by a 7,000 in employment for men however over
the year women saw an increase of 62,000 with men seeing a 29,000
increase
1 These statistics are not of sufficient quality to be published by
the ONS as National Statistics and are published
as experimental statistics
7
The UK also saw an increase in employment for both men and women
over the year and quarter.
Table 5 Employment by Gender (Amount 16+, rates 16-64) Seasonally
Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 1,236 +3 +62 69.5% +0.0% +3.3%
UK Men 16,155 +176 +212 77.2% +0.7% +0.6%
Women 13,995 +104 +237 67.1% +0.3% +0.8%
Fig. 5 shows the employment rate for men and women from Sep-Nov
2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The current rate for men is down 0.2
percentage points with the rate for women unchanged on the previous
quarter which was the highest since Mar-May 2008 (69.5%). Fig. 5
Scottish Employment by Gender Rates (%):
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
ECONOMIC INACTIVITY
Economic inactivity is a measure of people not in work, not seeking
work and not available to work. The LFS shows a decrease in the
number of economically inactive in both Scotland and the UK over
the year. However Scotland saw an increase of 31,000 over the
quarter.
Table 6 Inactivity (16-64)
Scotland 753 +31 -37 22.1% +0.8% -1.2%
UK 8,932 -22 -75 22.2% -0.1% -0.2 %
Fig. 6 shows the Scottish economic inactivity rate from Sep-Nov
2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The Scottish and UK rates have not fluctuated
much over the period. However the current quarter has seen a 0.8
percentage point increase in Scotland which in part is due to the
fall in unemployment.
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Sep-Nov
2006
Sep-Nov
2007
Sep-Nov
2008
Sep-Nov
2009
Sep-Nov
2010
Sep-Nov
2011
Sep-Nov
2012
Sep-Nov
2013
Scotland
UK
Economic Inactivity by Gender
Economic inactivity rates are generally higher for women than for
men. The rate for men in Scotland has increased over both the year
and the quarter with the rates for women decreasing over the year.
At the UK level the rates for men decreased over both the year and
the quarter however women’s rates saw no change over the quarter
but decreased over the year.
Table 7 Economic Inactivity by Gender (16-64)
Seasonally Adjusted
Amount (thousands)
Women 442 +11 -59 25.5% +0.6% -3.4%
UK Men 3,288 -22 -5 16.4% -0.1% -0.1%
Women 5,644 0 -70 27.9% 0.0% -0.4%
Fig. 7 shows the economic inactivity rates for men and women in
Scotland from Sep-Nov 2006 to Sep-Nov 2013. The male rate in
Scotland is the highest since Sep-Nov 2010 (18.7%) with the female
rate bucking the downward trend with an increase of 0.6 percentage
points. Fig. 7 Scottish Economic Inactivity by Gender Rates
(%):
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
CLAIMANT COUNT
The Claimant Count records the number of people claiming Jobseekers
Allowance (JSA) and National Insurance Credits at Jobcentre Plus
local offices. This is not an official measure of unemployment but
does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local
level.
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for Scotland in
unchanged from November remaining at 3.3%. The UK seasonally
adjusted claimant count rate is 3.1% for December, which is
unchanged from November.
Figure 8 compares the Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant
count rate. The Scottish rate has been around 0.2 percentage points
high than the UK rate since February 2010. Both rates have been
above 3.0% since August 2011.
Fig.8 Scottish and UK seasonally adjusted claimant count rate (%):
January 2007 onwards
0
1
2
3
4
5
Scotland
United Kingdom
Table 8 shows data on the not seasonally adjusted claimant count
for each Scottish Parliament constituency.
Table 8 Claimant Count Not Seasonally Adjusted
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Aberdeen South and North Kincardine
559 1.2 68 -40 0.0 -210 -0.4
Aberdeenshire East
10
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Airdrie and Shotts 2,216 4.9 8 -10 0.0 -412 -0.9
Almond Valley 1,482 2.6 48 -30 -0.1 -379 -0.7
Angus North and Mearns
Angus South 890 2.1 53 -13 0.0 -330 -0.8
Argyll and Bute 1,139 2.9 41 12 0.0 -263 -0.7
Ayr 1,874 4.0 20 27 0.1 -249 -0.5
Banffshire and Buchan Coast
Caithness, Sutherland and Ross
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley
2,202 4.5 13 28 0.0 -389 -0.8
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane
Clydebank and Milngavie
Clydesdale 1,381 3.0 36 18 0.1 -413 -0.8
Coatbridge and Chryston
Cowdenbeath 1,703 3.8 25 -62 -0.1 -328 -0.7
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Cunninghame North
Cunninghame South
Dumbarton 1,846 3.8 25 38 0.1 -260 -0.5
Dumfriesshire 1,156 2.4 51 -63 -0.2 -363 -0.8
Dundee City East 2,155 4.9 8 63 0.1 -421 -1.0
Dundee City West 2,230 4.4 15 4 0.0 -488 -1.0
Dunfermline 1,397 3.0 36 -85 -0.2 -304 -0.7
East Kilbride 1,363 2.9 41 -37 0.0 -363 -0.7
East Lothian 1,130 2.5 49 19 0.0 -204 -0.5
11
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Edinburgh Central 1,434 2.1 53 -59 -0.1 -285 -0.4
Edinburgh Eastern 2,034 4.0 20 10 0.1 -358 -0.6
Edinburgh Northern and Leith
Edinburgh Pentlands
Edinburgh Southern
Edinburgh Western 1,003 2.1 53 -20 0.0 -254 -0.5
Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire
Falkirk East 1,772 3.5 30 4 0.0 -224 -0.4
Falkirk West 1,966 4.0 20 48 0.1 -372 -0.8
Galloway and West Dumfries
Glasgow Anniesland
Glasgow Cathcart 1,974 3.8 25 14 0.1 -477 -0.9
Glasgow Kelvin 1,824 2.9 41 -41 -0.1 -457 -0.7
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn
Glasgow Pollok 2,690 5.3 3 49 0.1 -520 -1.1
Glasgow Provan 2,473 5.1 6 -84 -0.2 -638 -1.3
Glasgow Shettleston
Glasgow Southside
Greenock and Inverclyde
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse
Inverness and Nairn
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley
Kirkcaldy 2,553 5.2 4 -81 -0.1 -406 -0.8
Linlithgow 1,700 3.0 36 -56 -0.1 -450 -0.8
12
December 2013 Monthly Change Annual Change
Number Rate Rank
Midlothian North and Musselburgh
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale
1,283 2.8 45 3 0.0 -306 -0.6
Moray 801 1.7 62 44 0.1 -265 -0.5
Motherwell and Wishaw
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North East Fife 815 1.6 65 72 0.1 -127 -0.3
Orkney Islands 134 1.1 69 -15 -0.1 -42 -0.3
Paisley 2,336 5.0 7 -10 0.0 -419 -0.9
Perthshire North 834 1.8 58 15 0.0 -169 -0.4
Perthshire South and Kinrossshire
Renfrewshire North and West
Renfrewshire South
Rutherglen 1,966 3.9 23 -39 -0.1 -502 -1.0
Shetland Islands 139 1.0 71 -1 0.0 -76 -0.5
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
Stirling 1,398 3.0 36 2 0.0 -315 -0.7
Strathkelvin and Bearsden
Uddingston and Bellshill
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013c)
13
CLAIMANT COUNT MAP
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Claimant Count December 2013
Between 0.6% and 2.1%
Between 2.1% and 3.3%
Between 3.3% and 4.2%
Between 4.2% and 5.6%
ANNUAL POPULATION SURVEY
The APS is the combination of the LFS with sample boosts from
England, Wales and Scotland. The combination of different sources
takes the total number of individuals that take part in the APS to
approximately 340,000, with the Scottish component accounting for
around 35,000 individuals. The design of the APS enables annual
estimates for relatively small areas of the United Kingdom (e.g.
local authority or Parliamentary constituency) to be produced. The
APS results are published quarterly.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BY CONSTITUENCY
The table below contains the unemployment rate for each Scottish
Parliamentary constituency using the International Labour
Organisation’s definition of unemployment. It should be noted
estimates are not available for some areas as the sample size is
too small to provide a figure with a significant rate of
confidence.
Table 9: Unemployment by Scottish Parliamentary constituency: Oct
2012-Sep 2013
Constituency Unemployment Rate (%) - aged 16+
Change on year (percentage points)
Aberdeen Central 4.5 -2.4
Aberdeen Donside 3.8 -3.2
Aberdeenshire East* 3.2 0.3
Aberdeenshire West* 3.3 1.7
Almond Valley 10.5 4.9
Angus South 6.5 0.0
Ayr 8.3 -1.6
Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 9.6 -1.0
Clackmannanshire and Dunblane 7.8 -1.2
Clydebank and Milngavie 7.7 -1.6
Clydesdale 9.5 3.3
Cowdenbeath 15.6 0.2
Cunninghame North 14.5 0.7
Cunninghame South 14.2 3.1
Dunfermline 3.2 -0.9
Edinburgh Northern and Leith 8.5 5.2
Edinburgh Pentlands* 5.8
Falkirk East 7.0 -0.7
Falkirk West 7.9 -1.7
Glasgow Anniesland 5.5 -6.1
Glasgow Cathcart 8.3 -0.8
Glasgow Kelvin* 3.9 -9.2
Glasgow Pollok 14.1 3.7
Glasgow Provan 13.4 7.5
Glasgow Shettleston* 6.1 -8.1
Glasgow Southside 11.9 -2.5
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse 9.1 2.6
Inverness and Nairn 6.5 1.8
Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley 11.0 -0.3
Kirkcaldy 13.4 -2.7
Linlithgow 5.2 0.9
Midlothian South, Tweeddale and Lauderdale 5.1 -1.7
Moray 4.4 0.6
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 8.5 1.7
North East Fife 7.1 N/A
Orkney Islands* 3.1 -1.3
Renfrewshire South 9.6 -0.9
Stirling 9.8 1.5
Scotland 7.8 -0.1
Source: Office for National Statistics. (2013e)
*Unable to provide an estimate as sample size is too small.
16
GUEST INDICATOR: MAUFACTURING SECTOR
The latest data from the Index of Manufactured Exports (IME) shows
that for the third quarter of 2013 there was a 2.2% real term
decrease in manufactured exports. The IME is a quarterly survey of
around 800 manufacturing companies which produces an
inflation-adjusted time series allowing us to trace export
performance back to the late 1990s. The total value of Scottish
manufactured exports declined by 30% between 1999 and 2012 in real
terms. Writing in 2011 about IME trends over the previous decade,
Professor David Bell concluded that the performance of Scottish
manufactured exports has been ‘particularly troubling’. Looking
behind the headline trend data the largest reductions have been in
the ‘textiles and clothing’ and ‘engineering and allied’ sectors,
where exports have more than halved in value since 2000. Some
sectors have managed to defy the general trend with the ‘food and
drink’, ‘metals and metal products’ and ‘refined petroleum and
chemicals’ sectors all growing significantly over the decade (by
51%, 23% and 117% respectively).
Employment in manufacturing sector
Since 2005 the number of people employed in the manufacturing
sector in Scotland has fallen by around 64,000 to 191,500 meaning
it now represents 8.0% of the total Scottish workforce which is
below the UK average of9.8%. Fig. 9 show that the proportion of
people aged 16-64 employed in the manufacturing sector in Scotland
has followed the similar trend as the UK. However since Oct 2004 to
Sep 2005 the UK has seen a decrease of 2.0 percentage points where
as Scotland has seen a 2.6 percentage point decrease.
Fig. 9: Comparison of employment in the Manufacturing sector in
Scotland and the UK
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Scotland
While the proportion of those working in the manufacturing sector
in Scotland is currently 8.0% of the total workforce there are
variation across Scotland. Fig. 10 shows the proportion of people
employed in each constituency who work in the manufacturing sector.
Looking at the latest available data the Scottish parliamentary
constituency of Caithness, Sutherland and Ross has the highest
proportion of people working in the manufacturing industry at 18.9%
while Edinburgh Pentlands has the lowest proportion at 2.8%.
Please note that in figure 10 there is no available data for the
following constituencies: Edinburgh Eastern, Edinburgh Western,
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn, Glasgow Provan and Glasgow
Shettleston.
17
Fig. 10: Proportion of people working employed in the Manufacturing
sector by constituency
Based on OS material with the permission of OS. SPCB 10039291
Between 2.7% and 5.2%
Between 5.2% and 7.5%
Between 7.5% and 9.6%
Between 9.6% and 12.9%
Between 12.9% and 17.7%
Office for National Statistics. (2014d) Estimates of Unemployment
by Age, September 2013, [Online]. Available at:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/subnational-labour/regional-labour-market-
statistics/january-2014/rft-lfs-reg-x02-january-2014.xls [Accessed
22 January 2014] Office for National Statistics. (2014e) Annual
Population Survey [Online]. Available at:
https://www.nomisweb.co.uk/ [Accessed 22 January 2014] Scottish
Government, Index of manufactured exports 3rd quarter 2013
[Online]. Available at:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/IME2013Q3
[Accessed 22 January 2014]
20
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website
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