Labour market transitions of young women and men in Eastern Europe and Central Asia:

SWTS 2012-13 main findings

Sofia, 24 September 2015

Valentina BarcucciWork4Youth Project

Youth Employment Programme

Outline

I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project

II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)

III. Main SWTS findings in EECA

IV. General conclusions

Outline

I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project

II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)

III. Main SWTS findings in EECA

IV. General conclusions

Work4Youth: What is it?

Basic facts

Improving decent work opportunities for youth through knowledge and action Name

Duration Five years (2011 – 2016)

Budget 14.7 million USD

Objectives

Donor

• More and better LMI on youth labour markets – for government institutions,

social partners, national statistical offices, researchers, international organizations,

development partners, media.

• Better use of LMI – Strengthen link between LMI and policymaking (dialogue!)

Outline

I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project

II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)

III. Main SWTS findings in EECA

IV. General conclusions

SWTS methodology

• Data is generated through the ILO school-to-work transition survey

(SWTS)

Household survey

Nationally-representative sample of up to 5,000 aged 15 to 29 years

Standardized questionnaire but nationally-adapted

Focus on household characteristics, aspirations and perceptions of youth,

extensive details on conditions of work and self-employment, means of

job search, history of economic activities

W4Y implements SWTSs in the following target countries:

Asia and the Pacific

Bangladesh*

Cambodia

Myanmar

Nepal

Samoa*

Viet Nam

W4Y Surveys

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Armenia

FYR Macedonia

Krygyzstan*

Moldova

Montenegro

Russian Federation

Serbia

Ukraine

Latin America and the

Caribbean

Brazil

Colombia*

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Jamaica

Peru*

Middle East and North

Africa

Egypt

Jordan

Lebanon

Occupied Palestinian

Territory

Tunisia*

Sub-Saharan Africa

Benin

Liberia

Madagascar

Malawi

Republic of Congo

South Africa

Tanzania*

Togo

Uganda

Zambia

* One round only. Survey will not be repeated in 2014/15. Red font: First round in 2014/15.

W4Y Publication Series from SWTS data

National reports: summarizing SWTS findings and policy implications

Regional reports: synthesizing regional youth labour market trends

Thematic reports: global analyses of specific topics (e.g. informal employment)

Global Employment Trends for Youth: two global summaries

Analytical briefs: short explorations of specific topics (eg. NEETs, elementary occupations)

Award-winning research: submissions of global calls for papers

www.ilo.org/w4y

SWTS methodology in EECA

Country Implementation partner Sample sizeGeographic

coverageReference period

Armenia National Statistical Service 3 216 National October–November 2012Kyrgyzstan National Statistical Commission 3 930 National July–September 2013Macedonia, FYR State Statistical Office 2 544 National July–September 2012Moldova, Rep. of National Bureau of Statistics 1 158 National January–March 2013Russian Federation Russian Federal State Statistics Service 3 890 11 regions July 2012Ukraine Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms 3 526 National February 2013

2012-2013 surveys

Country Implementation partner Sample sizeGeographic

coverageReference period

Armenia National Statistical Service 2 710 National September-October 2014

Macedonia, FYR State Statistical Office 2 474 National July-September 2014

Moldova, Rep. of National Bureau of Statistics … National On-going

Montenegro Statistical Office … National On-going

Russian Federation Russian Federal State Statistics Service … 11 regions On-going

Serbia Statistical Office 3 508 National March-May 2015

Ukraine Ukrainian Center for Social Reforms … National On-going

2014-2015 surveys

Raw datasets are available: http://www.ilo.org/employment/areas/WCMS_234860/lang--en/index.htm

Tabulated data and indicators are available on the youthSTATs database: www.ilo.org/ilodata/youth

SWTSs meta-information:

Outline

I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project

II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)

III. Main SWTS findings in EECA

IV. General conclusions

Standard labour market indicators (15-29)

EU-27 (2013)

Low-income countries (10 country

average, 2012-13)

EECA countries (6 country average, 2012-13)

EECA in comparison

Youth unemployment rate: 17.4 10.3 20.0 High

Youth LFPR: 56.5 59.8 50.9 Low

Youth NEET rate:  15.4 18.1 22.7 High

SWTS results in EECA

Sources: EECA and low-income countries: ILO SWTS; EU-27: Eurostat.

Unemployment and inactivity are high on average in surveyed countries

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

SWTS results in EECA

Traditional framework may be policy-making-unfriendly

Traditional framework

Employed

Unemployed

Inactive

Alternative framework

Irregular employed

Regular employed

Relaxed unemployed

Inactive students

Inactive non-students

SWTS results in EECA: Key indicators

Armenia Kyrgyzstan FYR Macedonia Moldova Russia Ukraine0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Inactive non-students Unemployed (relaxed) In irregular employment Male Female

%

High shares of unemployed and inactive non-students

Educational attainment is high in the surveyed countries

SWTS results in EECA: Education

• Participation in TVET is strong compared to other regions; on average, 28% completed a technical programme.

Less

than

prim

ary

Primary

Secon

dary

voca

tiona

l

Secon

dary

gene

ral

Post-s

econ

dary

voca

tiona

l

Univers

ity an

d pos

t-grad

uate

studie

s0

20

40

60Youth by highest level of completed education

Armenia FYR Macedonia, FYR Kyrgyzstan Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine Average

%

Investment in education brings positive returns

SWTS results in EECA: Education

Armenia Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Youth unemployment rate by level of completed education

Primary Secondary Tertiary

%

• Unemployment rates decrease as the level of education increases (exception: Armenia)

Investment in education brings positive returns

SWTS results in EECA: Education

Primary

Seconda

ry vo

cationa

l

Seconda

ry ge

neral

Post-s

econd

ary vo

cation

al

Universit

y and p

ostgr

aduate

0

15

30

45

Average length of transition (months) by level of education

Mon

ths

• The lenght of the transition shortens as level of education increases

• Wage premium for university education over primary education: 43%

But are youth leaving the education system with realistic expectations?

SWTS results in EECA: Education

Desired place of work Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR

Moldova, Rep. of

Russian Fed.

Ukraine

Myself (own business/farm) 25.9 14.3 23.6 27.0 36.7 42.4Government/Public sector 45.5 64.9 60.2 28.2 33.5 23.0Private company 16.8 12.7 12.7 19.0 15.6 22.0Others 11.8 8.1 3.5 25.8 14.2 12.6

Current students by place/sector of work sought (%)

Unemployed youth by place/sector of work sought (%)

Desired place of work Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR

Moldova, Rep. of

Russian Fed.

Ukraine

Myself (own business/farm) 18.3 17.6 13.9 55.7 43.0 33.2Government/Public sector 35.6 33.8 50.7 18.8 26.5 20.5Private company 35.9 34.4 32.9 20.9 20.0 29.7Others 10.2 14.2 2.5 4.6 10.5 16.6

SWTS results in EECA: Where do youth work?

Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine0

102030405060708090

100

17.5

46.6

21.1 13.5 9.4 5.8

17.8

19.5

21.0

11.428.6

24.6

64.7

34.0

57.975.1

62.0 69.6

Youth employment by sector

Agriculture Industry Services

%

Services dominate but agriculture and industry have significant shares

SWTS results in EECA: Where do youth work?

Higher skilled; 22.5%

Mid-skilled occupations in services; 32.8%

Mid-skilled occupations in trades (manual work);

32.3%

Low-skilled; 12.4%

Occupation/skills level of employed youth (average)

End result: high shares of overeducation

• On average, 22% of youth work in a job for which they are ‘overqualified’.

Demand for ‘professional’ work is somewhat limited

Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR

Moldova, Rep. of

Russian Fed. Ukraine Average0

102030405060708090

100

21.5 15.5 18.8 27.515.8 23.2 21.7

11.6 15.9 15.3 6.615.3 8.9 9.4

66.9 68.7 66.0 65.9 68.8 67.9 68.9

Employed youth by matching or unmatching qualifications

Overeducated Undereducated Matching qualifications

%

SWTS results in EECA: Unemployment

Long-term unemployment is widespread

• 3 in 4 unemployed youth in Macedonia have been looking longer than 12 months; 52% in Armenia and 31% in Ukraine

Youth unemployment too high and too long in most countries

Most unemployed youth look for work through informal networks

• But registration at employment centers is also fairly common (wide range: 5% in Moldova to 66% in Macedonia)

Main obstacles are ‘unavailability of sufficient jobs’ and ‘lack of work experience’.

SWTS results in EECA: Labour market transitions

Paths and lengths of transition vary across countries

Armenia Kyrgyzstan Macedonia, FYR Moldova, Rep. of Russian Fed. Ukraine Average05

10152025303540

1511

3633

24

12

22

Average length of transition (months)

Some commonalities regarding characteristics leading to a faster transition include:

• Education level of parents

• Education level of youth

• Level of household wealth

Outline

I. Introducing the Work4Youth Project

II. The school-to-work transition survey (SWTS)

III. Main SWTS findings in EECA

IV. General conclusions

General conclusions

Multiple barriers facing young people in their attempts to secure a smooth transition into the labour market.

The main concerns emerging from the SWTS indicators include:

• Alarmingly high levels of youth unemployment in some countries

• Widespread informal employment

• Skills mismatch

• Extensive gender inequalities.

• Low pay

Few youth take up entrepreneurial activities despite a regard for self-employment among current students.

Difficult transitions frequently lead young people to migrate.

Given the high educational attainment, un/underemployment and migration are missed returns on the investment in education made by families and society.