Labour Supply by Occupation:Labour Supply by Occupation:

Available Data and Their Use in QuebecAvailable Data and Their Use in Quebec

Richard Legris, Emploi-QuébecAlain Rousseau, Quebec department of education, recreation and sport (MELS in French)

Workshop on Labour Supply by OccupationFLMM-LMI Work GroupOctober 17 and 18, 2007, Vancouver

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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

A few remarks about Emploi-Québec and how vocational and technical training is organized in Quebec

Occupational outlook - estimated demand

Training-employment balance - managing supply to demand

Meshing data on labour supply and demand: presentation of the health sector model

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Structure of Emploi-QuébecStructure of Emploi-Québec

Government agency – part of the Quebec department of education, recreation and sports (Ministère de l’Éducation, des Loisirs et du Sport du Québec – MELS) - employment services to the public / social solidarity services

Major role of labour market partnerships: a labour market partners board (Commission des partenaires du marché du travail – CPMT), regional boards (17) and sectoral committees (30)Decentralized management: 17 regional boards and approximately 145 local employment centres (CLEs) and delivery points

In 2005-2006:A budget of approximately $1 billion for the workforce and employers (not including last-resort funding of $2.7 billion)

259,000 individuals received employability assistance128,000 Quebecers obtained employment through Emploi-Québec

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Vocational and Technical Training in Vocational and Technical Training in QubecQubec

70 school boards offer vocational training:70 school boards offer vocational training:142 programs leading to a vocational diploma (DEP)26 programs leading to an Attestation of Vocational Specialization (AVS or ASP in French)30 short basic programs leading to a vocational studies certificate (AEP)

48 general and vocational colleges (CÉGEPs) offer technical 48 general and vocational colleges (CÉGEPs) offer technical training:training:

114 programs leading to a college diploma (DEC)Over 1,000 basic programs leading to an attestation of collegial studies (AEC in French)

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Programs of study linked directly to the needs of the labour market and of

individuals through training design based on:

a skills-oriented approach (APC in French)a skills-oriented approach (APC in French)

… ensuring that programs of study correspond more closely with labour market requirements (qualitative component)

and actual labour requirements,and actual labour requirements,

thereby ensuring a balance between the training supply and thereby ensuring a balance between the training supply and labour market needs in terms of structure and anticipated labour market needs in terms of structure and anticipated growth (quantitative component).growth (quantitative component).

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Occupational Outlook in QuebecOccupational Outlook in Quebec

In Quebec, 16 economic regions and the CMAs of Montreal and Quebec City

Five-year projections for approx. 500 occupations

Prospective analysis supported by a labour market watch and the participation of our partners

Reviewed annually

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The Quebec Labour MarketThe Quebec Labour Market

Drop in the unemployment rate (supply)

Aging workforce

Working-age population (aged 15 to 64) will start to decline in 2012

Effective balancing is increasingly important

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Occupational Outlook: Occupational Outlook: CharacteristicsCharacteristics

520 occupations: uniformity of method

Similar occupations that follow different courses of training: supply that is not evident in one occupational area will surface in another

Capacity to meet labour market needs is limited by available supply

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Labour Demand: The Starting Labour Demand: The Starting Point...Point...

The Conference Board’s macro scenario

Estimated labour needs by sector (market expansion)

Estimated needs by occupation (market expansion)

Replacement needs (retirement and mobility between occupations)

Total demand by occupation

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Labour Supply: Hiring Labour Supply: Hiring CapacityCapacity

Difficulty to produce a forecast for each occupation under study

Option selected: estimate of the supply at the beginning of the time period (estimated unemployment rate by occupation)

Verification by means of EI recipient data

MELS: important input concerning the latest supply of graduates

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Labour Market Watch - ObjectivesLabour Market Watch - Objectives

To chart the progress of occupations and corresponding training programs where placement problems are encountered at either the regional level or in Quebec as a whole

To find solutions to these problems where training is just one of many strategies

To involve partners other than the MELS and Emploi-Québec in solving the problems identified

To be able to produce regular updates on the training-employment balance for the principal (critical) occupations identified in a given region

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SUPPLY WATCH

Recipients of Employment Assistance and Insurance

Labour force and unemployment rate

Recent and future graduates

Demographic evolution

Hiring surveys (La Relance)

DEMAND WATCH

Analysis of labour market trends

Employment outlook

Occupations in demand

Online placement - job vacancies

Analysis of economic and structural conditions

Indicators (regions and Quebec as a whole)Indicators (regions and Quebec as a whole)

Active Labour Market WatchActive Labour Market Watch

Immigration

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Diagnosis of Labour NeedsIndicators (regions and Quebec as a whole)

Action (regions and Quebec as a whole)

Emploi-Québec

Immigration

• Course content map• Promotion and validation • Training-employment balance• Alignment plan

• Action plan• LMI• Promotion and validation• …

Education

Active Labour Market WatchActive Labour Market Watch

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The Training-Employment The Training-Employment BalanceBalance

Use of a diagnostic tool that allows us to determine the number of individuals that need to be trained to ensure

that a sufficient quantity of skilled workers is available in every region of Quebec

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- based on the linkage between training programs and occupations (NOC)

- based on the estimated labour and labour replacement needs specified in Emploi-Québec’s occupational outlooks for 2007-2011

- takes into account student behaviour with respect to qualifications and the pursuit of higher learning

The Model for Training-The Model for Training-Employment BalanceEmployment Balance

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Planning for Labour in the Health Sector

A study conducted by the Quebec department of health and social services (MSSS) and its partners to:

– determine the actual situation in each occupation– forecast the size of the labour force over 15 years– define recruitment requirements– reach agreement with partners on possible

components of an action plan

An example of An example of integration:integration: supply supply demand demand

Initial shortageor surplus

Annual growthrate - needs

Need for recruitment

Labour requirements

Graduation rate

Graduates’ participation rate

Need for entrants

Initial workforce

Actual entrants Demographic forecasts

Expected number of graduates

DDEEMMAANNDD

SSUUPPPPLLYY

Health Sector

Education Network

Departures: retirement, death, resignation

Thank you very much for Thank you very much for your attention!!your attention!!

Questions, comments …Questions, comments …

APPENDIXAPPENDIX

QUEBEC’S EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM:Overall structure

Primary -6 years(6-12)

Secondary - 5 years (age 12-17)

Prechool - 1 year long (age 5)

1re 2 e 3e 4 e 5 e

D.E.S.

Specialized Trades Technology Professions

Labour Market

Continuous Training

Doctorate

Master ’s

Undergraduate

(3 - 4 yrs)

University

16 yrs old + 1L, 2L and level-4

math for certain programs

or

16 yrs old + first language(1L), 2L and level-3 math for certain programs

D.E.S.

College

Pre-universityTraining (2 years)

DEC

Technical Training (3 years)

DEC

DEC

DEP

Vocational Training

DEP : 600 to 1,800 hrsASP : 330 to 900 hrs

DEP

Active Watch Data Available

Labour:Labour:Results by occupation for Emploi-Québec’s occupational outlook model for the regions and Quebec as a wholeoccupations in demand for the regions and Quebec as a whole

Education:Education:Number of enrolments per vocational and technical program for the regions and Quebec as a wholeDiplomas awarded by program for the regions and Quebec as a wholeCourse content map La Relance (hiring surveys)NOC correspondence chart - training programs Projected graduation numbers