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United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT)
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DISCLAIMER
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any county, territory, city or area or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries regarding its economic system or degree of development. Excerpts may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. Views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations Human Settlements Programme, the United Nations and its member states.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
UN-Habitat Iraq thanks the European Union for its support and interest in the conservation of urban heritage and the implementation of the New Urban Agenda in Iraq.
This report was developed under the Local Area Development Programme (LADP-EU) by Dr. Mona Serageldin, Vice President of the Institute for International Urban Development (I2UD) and her team: Tariq Waly, Barbara Sumer, Daniel Tsai, Alejandra Mortarini, Johann Friedl, with the support of UN-Habitat team: Anna Soave, Saad Mahdi, Haitham Oabid, Bozhan Hawizy, Sara Mahmood, Rania Kamal, Ishaku Maitumbi.
Finally, UN-Habitat acknowledges the firm support of the Iraqi Ministry of Planning, namely H.E. Dr Maher Johan, Deputy Minister; Dr Mohammed Muhsin Al Sayed, Dr Sawsan Jabbar Ibraheem, Aseel Mahdi Rathi, Zuhair Rasheed Abbas, Ebtisam Mohsen Hameed, Jabbar Juma Laibi, Bassam Siham, Kareem, Osama Neza Abdul Rahman and Governorates Planning directors.
Graphic design by Bozhan Hawizy
Cover page: Baghdad © United States Department of Defense
Table of Contents
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1
Section 1: Platform Description ................................................................................................................... 3 Section 2: Population Projections & Distribution ....................................................................................... 7
2.1 Fertility Rates ...................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Mortality Rates.................................................................................................................................... 8 2.3 Migration ............................................................................................................................................. 9 2.4 Revised Population Projections ........................................................................................................ 10 2.5 Urban Population .............................................................................................................................. 12 2.6 Recent Population Movements ........................................................................................................ 13
Internally Displaced Persons ............................................................................................................... 13 Syrian Refugees in Iraq ........................................................................................................................ 15 Iraqi Migrants and Refugees ............................................................................................................... 15
2.7 Governorate population projections 2010-2030 .............................................................................. 16 Establishing a base year 2015 population .......................................................................................... 16 Impact of IDP movements................................................................................................................... 17 Projection Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 19
Section 3 Economic Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Governorate GDP Computation Methodology ................................................................................. 22 3.2 Importance of economic analysis to the formulation and implementation of national and governorate urban strategies ................................................................................................................. 24 3.3 Overview of the context in growth and employment as it affects subnational GDP ....................... 25 3.4 Value Added per Worker .................................................................................................................. 26 3.6 Economic Performance and Growth Prospects ................................................................................ 28 3.7 A general perspective on GDP and Employment in the Governorates............................................. 30
3.7.1 The Greater Baghdad Metropolitan Area .................................................................................. 33 3.7.2 The Southern Anchor Zone: Basrah & Muthanna ...................................................................... 34 3.7.3 Northern Oil Producing Cluster: Salah al Deen, Kirkuk, Ninevah ............................................... 35 3.7.4 The Kurdistan Regional Government Area: Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah ................................... 38 3.7.5 The Basrah/Baghdad Corridor: Thi-Qar, Qadissiya, & Babylon ................................................. 41 3.7.6 The Eastern Corridor: Misan, Wasit, & Diyala............................................................................ 44 3.7.7 The Pilgrimage Centers: Kerbela & Najaf ................................................................................... 46 3.7.8 Desert Zone: Anbar .................................................................................................................... 48
3.8 Concluding Remarks .......................................................................................................................... 51 Section 4: Infrastructure System and Resource Management 4.1 Climate Change ..................................................................................................................................... 52 4.2 Access to Potable Water Supply ........................................................................................................... 54 4.3 Energy ................................................................................................................................................... 56 4.4 Roads and Transport ............................................................................................................................. 59 4.5 Infrastructure Improvement Projects ................................................................................................... 63 4.6 Deprivation and Poverty ....................................................................................................................... 64 4.7 Estimating Deprivation Levels ............................................................................................................... 65
Section 5: National Urban Strategy Framework Conceptual Approach 5.0 National Urban Strategy Framework Conceptual Approach ................................................................ 68
5.0.1 Urban Development Patterns .................................................................................................... 69 5.1 Development Corridors ..................................................................................................................... 77 5.2 Development Clusters ....................................................................................................................... 78
5.2.1 Kurdistan Region Clusters .......................................................................................................... 79 5.2.2 Development Clusters Integrating Water Resource Management ........................................... 81 5.2.3 Development Clusters Integrating Agriculture .......................................................................... 84 5.2.4 Oil Based Development Clusters ................................................................................................ 86 5.2.4 Pilgrimage Cities Cluster ............................................................................................................ 88
5.3 Looking to 2030 ................................................................................................................................. 92 References .................................................................................................................................................. 93 Statistical Annex .......................................................................................................................................... 95
In fond remembrance of
Dr. Mona Serageldin
1938 – 2018
Dr. Mona Serageldin was the Vice President of the Institute for International Urban Development (I2UD) based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA. She obtained a BSc in Architecture from Cairo University, Faculty of Engineering. She later obtained a MSc degree in Urban Planning and a PhD in Urban and Regional Planning from Harvard University. She retired from the position of Adjunct Professor of Urban Planning at the Harvard University Graduate School of Design (GSD) in June 2008 after having been a faculty member since 1985.
Dr Serageldin had over 35 years of professional experience in local development, strategic planning, social inclusion, and policy and program assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. She specialized on: decentralization; municipal finance of urban development; participatory urban planning and management; land regularization and infrastructure services; migration patterns and the impacts of remittances on land and housing markets; microcredit in housing and infrastructure; community-based development; and revitalization of the historic urban fabric. She worked on projects sponsored by UNDP, UN-HABITAT, the World Bank, USAID, the InterAmerican Development Bank, and various foundations. In 2003-2004 she served as one of the experts on the Millennium Project Task Force 8 on Improving the lives of 100 million slum dwellers by 2020. In 2008, she served on the Higher Council in Urban Planning and Development in Egypt.
Her very last work focused on the delivery of Iraq's national and governorates urban strategies under the EU-funded Local Area
Development Programme.
1
Introduction
This study focuses on reshaping the 2010 outline spatial strategy for Iraq based on the situation
on the ground today while charting a path towards the goals embodied in the post conflict vision
presented by the Ministry of Planning.
1. To overcome imbalances in the level of development among governorates.
2. To strengthen the physical and economic links between the urban centers and the rural
settlements to reduce disparities and poverty.
3. To address the issues related to the return and resettlement of IDPs.
4. To regularize informal areas and alleviate the factors underpinning their formation.
5. To make significant progress towards achieving the SDGs and the New Urban Agenda.
Reconstruction and development should proceed simultaneously. In a federal governance
system this requires coordination between the Ministries, the governorates and the Kurdistan
Regional Government. The web-based platform especially designed and set up for this project is
providing an excellent tool to structure the participation of governorate teams in every stage of
project development.
Effective harmonization, coordination, and articulation between the national ministries and the
governorates, as well as, among the tiers of local administration within the governorates are a
core requirement of development. In countries that experience conflict, like Iraq, there is the
additional burden of wartime administrative issues to resolve. Governorates have a key role in
restarting Iraq’s stalled economic growth. To enable them to fully drive development in their
territorial jurisdictions, constraints hindering them must be alleviated. Spatial issues dominate
these concerns and need to be addressed:
• Land ownership and real property records have to be updated ;
• IDP settlement, resettlement of IDPs currently living in unsafe sites and provision of
affordable housing;
• Current occupancy of land and premises and anticipated future land occupancy and use
to be reflected in governorate structure plans and city master plans ;
• Resolution of issues relating to unclear property titles resulting in disputes and grievances
that impede land and real estate transactions; and
• Improving security to reduce the risk carried by public and private investors and
alleviating concerns deterring private investment in enterprises and businesses
Public sector financial management is facing constraints arising from the necessity to give priority
to expenditures on defense and security, and the cumulative impacts of problems caused by the
weakness of the financial sector, the marked preference for investment in real estate assets, the
2
proliferation of informal activities, the difficulties encountered in collecting taxes and duties and
the inability to expand access to credit for lower and middle income households and small
businesses.
The focus on the economy should not detract from the social and humanitarian crisis situation
prevailing in many governorates, which have to cope with large numbers of IDPs, refugees, and
veterans in addition to unemployed workers unable to find jobs. Arrears in the payment of
salaries, pensions, and other social benefits due to the sharp decline of public revenues are
creating financial hardships, social problems, and political tensions.
It is important to develop an approach to spatial planning that strengthens the articulation of
national urban strategies and governorate structure plans supported by land management tools
(registration, regulations, inspection, and code enforcement) essential for their implementation.
At all levels of governance plans should also reinforce connections between urban and rural
areas.
Central transfers to governorates have decreased in parallel with the decline in national public
revenues. There are opportunities to obtain donor financing for projects that address
reconstruction and essential services, particularly in the health and education sectors, the two
key dimension of the UN Human Development Index, including programs to integrate youths and
displacees in the local economy. Similarly, funding can also be secured to support poor and
special needs populations in target areas, as well as, initiatives to build up urban resilience and
improve the effectiveness of responses to emergencies.
3
Section 1: Platform Description
Participation is a critical challenge in situations of ongoing conflict and turmoil. Yet participatory
planning is a pillar of democratic governance and empowerment of local communities. Using
modern web based technology I2UD experts set up an online information platform so that all
stakeholders can share information, and discuss issues. The key stakeholders are the Iraq
Ministry of Planning, UN-Habitat and UNDP, KRG-I, and the governorates, and the consultant
specialists at I2UD. Basic considerations in setting up the platform are:
1. Ease of use and maintenance;
2. Interactivity;
3. International accessibility;
4. Capacity to exchange all forms of documentation: visuals (maps, etc.), statistics, and text
as well as to discuss and comment on the information.
5. Organization of information so it can be posted, shared, discussed and analyzed as it is
collected.
To meet these needs, two interlinked platforms were set up:
1. A file based sharing platform
2. A conversation-based blog platform
Governorates
Specialist Consultant
I2UD
UN Habitat
upload share discuss
Ministry of Planning
4
A global document sharing platform, in this case Google Drive is used to share documents.
Sharing can be across all participants in the project. Each governorate will have separate files to
upload and edit material which can be seen but not edited by other participants. A global
platform is important because the participants are geographically dispersed.
The document sharing system only provides a storage system that can be shared. A blog, in this
case, word press offers a discussion system that can handle stored documents and can also be
linked to documents online. The blog will enable participants to post questions, answers and
comments. The two interlinked systems create a larger platform enabling participants to collect
and share documents, discuss tasks and comment on results as the project progresses.
The document sharing platform will have the following thematic content areas: (1) Context and
connectivity (2) Environment (3) Economic development (4) Urbanization (5) Spatial
development corridors (6) National Framework (7) Governorates (8) KRG-I governorates (9)
Other themes. These areas will be filled as the project progresses. Each thematic area can be
Blog + Website Google Drive or Dropbox
upload share discuss
Cloud document sharing Discussion
Context and Connectivity
Urbanization
Environment Development
Corridors
Economy Governorate
Plans
Open Topics TBD
Open Topics TBD
NUS Framework
5
expanded into more detailed content areas. For example, the context theme will expand to
include, topography water bodies, transportation routes, highways, trans-border crossings,
railways, air connections, pipelines, etc.
Matrices will cross topics and jurisdictions namely governorates, and where possible Qadaa level.
Information at both national and sub national levels, for topics such as GDP, population, IDPs,
and employment will be collected, compiled or computed from source materials and may take
the form of spatial visuals, maps, statistics, data, and documents. The format and availability of
information is expected to vary among governorates. The sharing platform will help provide a
view of both information availability and data gaps. The ability of participants to access other
participants’ postings in view-only mode will help guide data gathering, processing, and analysis
tasks.
National
Nineueh
Kirkuk
Diala
Al-Anbar Baghdad
Babylon
Kerbela
Wasit Salah Al-Deen
Al-Najaf Al-Qadisiya
Al-
Governorates
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
G Pop Un/eI …
Each governorate will supply & develop data for topics
6
The matrices will display a collective set of data across governorates and topics. For example, the
calculation of sub-National GDP involves information on GDP, by economic sectors and
employment at the national and governorate levels. Similarly population projections involve data
from UN-DESA and IOM. Each “cell” within the matrix represents a set of data, with the possibility
of increasing levels of detail. For example, manufacturing can be expanded into subsectors to
include textiles, refined petroleum, etc according to data availability and the level of
disaggregation needed by the governorates for development planning purposes.
A PowerPoint presentation explaining the structure and use of the platform has been presented
to the stakeholders. It is currently managed jointly by specialists, members of the UN-Habitat and
I2UD professional teams, but this responsibility will be assumed by the UN-Habitat project team
as soon as access to the systems by selected representatives of all stakeholders is finalized.
National
Nineueh
Kirkuk
Diala
Al-Anbar
Baghdad
Babylon
Kerbela
Wasit Salah Al-Deen
Al-Najaf Al-Qadisiya
Al-Muthanna
Thi-Qar Maysan
Governorates
GDP Total
ECONOMIC DATA
Mining, textiles, refined petroleum, chemicals, rubber, plastics…
Agriculture
Manufacturing
Services
Comm
.
Transport
7
Section 2: Population Projections & Distribution
Iraq’s population shares the same demographic characteristics as other Mashreq countries with
52.4% of the population under 20 years of age.1 The shape of the Iraq population pyramid and
its evolution since the 80’s shows the impact of the wars endured by the country. There is a loss
of young males in the age bracket of 20 to 35 in the 1980-90 decade due to the war with Iran.
The noticeable dent in the pyramid moves upward as the group ages from 1985 to 2015. The
2003 war created another loss affecting primarily the children and the elderly due to the
destruction of civilian infrastructure. The ongoing conflict will also affect the age distribution, but
the ultimate impact at the national level is still unclear.
The population projections given in the 2010 Outline Spatial Strategy for Iraq are computed
through the cohort survival plus net migration model. Events since 2010 have invalidated many
of the assumptions used in the computations and led UN-DESA to revise its 2009 estimates and
projections accordingly.
2.1 Fertility Rates
The age specific fertility rate which drive population projections drawn from the UN-DESA 2009
figures projected a decline in fertility across all cohorts of females between 15 and 44 years of
age. Current UN figures also show a declining trend since 1990, but the decline varies between
age groups and is lower than anticipated in 2009, probably due to the increase in natality in the
1990’s at the end of the decade long war with Iran. The current UN revised and projected rates
are shown in the table below:
Table 2.1 Age-specific fertility rates (2015 Revision) Age-specific fertility rates (births per 1,000 women)
Period 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
1980 - 1985 83.7 227.8 297.4 283.8 219.2 114.4 43.7
1985 - 1990 75.1 212.9 283.5 275.9 215.2 114.4 40.9
1990 - 1995 67.5 196.6 264.9 259.1 201.4 107.2 32.5
1995 - 2000 64.8 188.1 248.7 238.6 181.8 93.1 22.5
2000 - 2005 66.0 190.0 240.0 210.0 140.0 70.0 15.0
2005 - 2010 80.0 210.0 240.0 210.0 130.0 50.0 8.0
2010 - 2015 80.0 210.0 240.0 210.0 130.0 50.0 8.0
2015 - 2020 88.1 213.0 223.1 195.5 112.7 33.6 4.1
2020 - 2025 88.2 206.2 208.4 182.9 102.0 27.1 2.9
2025 - 2030 87.6 199.2 195.3 171.9 92.8 22.1 2.1
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
1 2010 estimate from the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects:
The 2015 Revision.
8
These fertility rates translate into crude birth rates per thousand population shown on the table
below:
Table 2.2 Birth Rates
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
By 2010 most countries in the Mashreq and Mahgreb noted an increase in fertility rates among
younger women since 2000 which is reflected in the UN-DESA 2015 revision of its statistics for
women between 15 and 25 years of age.
2.2 Mortality Rates
The 2010 report used an unusual assumption regarding the age specific mortality rates which are
assumed to remain constant over the two decades from 2010 to 2030. This is contrary to the
trends recorded by the UN in Iraq and in other countries of the region. UN figures project a
decline from 5.3 per 1000 in 2010-15 to 4.6 in 2025-30. The current UN projected rates are shown
in the chart below. The projections developed for this project use the revised 2015 statistics.
05
1015202530354045
Birth Rate (births per 1,000 population)
9
Table 2.3 Mortality Rates
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
2.3 Migration
Migration is the most difficult component of population projections. The rural to urban migration
accelerated since the wars disrupted the agricultural sector as noted in the GDP analysis. To this
trend the conflict has generated large population movements internally (IDPs) and across
international borders (migrants).
In the 2010 report net migration (the balance of in and out of the country population movement)
was assumed to be negligible and was not accounted for in the projections. The latest UN-DESA
projections record negative rates from 1980 to 2010 as a result of out migration triggered by
destruction and hardships created by wars and sanctions. This outflow is followed by an inflow
resulting in an increase in net migration to 3.3% between 2010 and 2015. This period included an
inflow attracted by the development generated by to the oil price boom as well as returnees and
refugees seeking to avoid the violence in Syria.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mortalty Rate (deaths per 1,000 population)
10
Table 2.4 Net Migration Rates
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Net migration rates are projected to fall back into the negative range as a result of the ongoing
conflict, the slump in oil prices, and the decline in the volume of exports. The underlying
assumption is that the combined effect of these factors will depress the economy and continue
to spur out migration during the projection period. Nevertheless UN DESA reported that as of the
end of 2015, about 1.5 million Iraqi’s had emigrated.2
For national population estimates and projections internal population movements (IDPs) are not
taken into consideration. However these movements are significant for the computation of the
population at the sub national level. The most recent IOM estimates tracing these population
movements are discussed in section 2.6.
2.4 Revised Population Projections
Based on the most recent UN-DESA figures (2015 revision) National population evolution and
projection to 2030 are given in the following table and graph.
2 UN DESA 2015a
-10.0
-8.0
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
Net Migration Rate (per 1,000 population)
11
Table 2.5 Population Pyramid
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Table 2.6 Population by Age Group & Sex (1985-2030)
Age 1985 2000 2015 2030
F M F M F M F M
0-4 1 312 1 389 1 865 1 976 2 783 2 944 3 569 3 789
5-9 1 165 1 230 1 615 1 709 2 415 2 559 3 287 3 482
10-14 1 022 1 076 1 437 1 526 2 053 2 172 3 034 3 207
15-19 885 913 1 275 1 345 1 857 1 957 2 745 2 892
20-24 649 635 1 138 1 181 1 615 1 694 2 381 2 508
25-29 501 486 972 983 1 410 1 483 2 024 2 122
30-34 488 478 803 777 1 218 1 272 1 830 1 908
35-39 300 318 560 513 1 073 1 102 1 587 1 646
40-44 284 299 428 394 915 912 1 376 1 431
45-49 244 248 428 406 754 713 1 177 1 210
50-54 206 205 258 268 519 459 1 021 1 022
55-59 170 166 246 252 388 338 849 810
60-64 144 141 206 198 376 328 673 591
65-69 127 120 164 150 211 193 434 341
70-74 96 87 121 103 179 154 289 212
75-79 63 54 83 66 120 92 228 158
80+ 45 34
80-84
50 37 66 45 89 61
85-89
20 14 26 15 42 25
90-94
5 3 7 3 11 6
95-99
1 0 1 0 2 1
100+
0 0 0 0 0 0 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
12
2.5 Urban Population
The 2010 Outline Spatial strategy for Iraq states that the 2009 projections by UN-DESA indicated
a decline in the growth rates of urban populations that fell into the negative range between 1990
and 2015. Current UN figures indicate a positive rate for this time period and project a slow
decline from around 3% in 2015 to 2.4% by 2030. The revised rates translate into continuous
growth of the urban population which increased by a factor of 2.5 between 1980 and 2015
reaching 25 million. It is expected that over 12 million new urban dwellers will be added between
2015 and 2030 when the urban population will have reached 36.9 million.
Table 2.7 Urban Population Growth Rate
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
Table 2.8 Urban Population
Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
0.000.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00
Annual Rate of Change of the Urban Population (percent)
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Urban Population at Mid Year (thousands)
13
These considerations entail that the scenarios presented in the 2010 report need to be revised
to reflect the changes that have occurred as a result of fluctuations in the price of oil and ongoing
conflict in Anbar and Ninevah provinces. Destructive conflict spillover has been controlled first in
Kirkuk and lately in Salah El Din after the recapture of the Baiji refinery in 2015.
2.6 Recent Population Movements
Iraq has traditionally been a migrant receiving country. Wars, ongoing conflict, and turmoil have
led to outflows of people and capital. The hardships created by the ongoing conflict as well as
perceptions of opportunities in Europe or other parts of the world have triggered large
population movements internally and across international borders. Statistics compiled by IOM
provide a current assessment of this constantly changing situation which affects urban
settlement patterns and impact populations throughout Iraq’s governorates.
Internally Displaced Persons
The continuing conflict has generated an unprecedented number of IDPs. Today, IOM estimates
that over 3 million persons (539,246 families) have been displaced. One of the largest waves of
internal displacement in recent years occurred between June and August 2014, displacing 1.2
people (primarily from Ninevah governorate). Internal displacement continued at a relatively
steady pace of approximately half a million people every three to four months from September
2014 to June 2015. During this period, a total of approximately 1.4 persons were displaced3.
3 IDMC 2015
14
Table 2.9 Family Displacement in Iraq (2016)
Governorate of origin
Governorate of displacement
Anbar Babylon Baghdad Diyala Erbil Kirkuk Ninevah Salah al-Din
Total
Anbar 95,749 425 895 22 422 1,267 98,780
Baghdad 67,752 1,182 7,712 2,285 535 9,507 9,545 98,518
Dahuk 415 65,454 182 66,051
Kirkuk 21,566 30 265 1,447 17,384 6,262 16,089 63,043
Erbil 29,275 2 196 766 23,616 5,926 59,781
Ninevah 853 5 419 43,678 1,278 46,233
Salah al-Din 940 12 454 15 1,505 75 31,865 34,866
Sulaymaniyah 15,273 631 1,392 3,332 2,684 4,006 27,318
Diyala 843 77 26 14,847 58 499 16,350
Najaf 496 23 22 45 12,646 37 13,269
Kerbala 876 198 27 42 65 10,099 82 11,389
Babylon 2,457 2,465 116 32 13 4,545 112 9,740
Wassit 790 10 39 117 3,302 90 4,348
Qadissiya 946 15 70 33 395 2,547 37 4,043
Basrah 498 19 20 56 137 693 481 1,904
Thi-Qar 305 22 11 22 136 964 82 1,542
Missan 173 6 31 19 123 664 87 1,103
Muthanna 339 22 52 43 541 56 1,053
Total 239,546 5,075 10,634 22,900 781 20,917 187,757 71,721 559,331 Source: IOM Iraq 2016a
Baghdad hosts the largest number of IDPs in Iraq due to its relative proximity to the governorates
most impacted by conflict. The majority of IDPs in Baghdad (52.5%) rent housing while another
37.6% are accommodated by host families. 42.8% of all IDP families are originally from Anbar
while 33.6% are from Ninevah. Due to the sheer size of Anbar province and lack of adequate
accessibility, almost all of the IDPs within Anbar province (96.9%) are from the province itself.
15
Table 2.10 Percentage of IDP families by Governorate of Origin in the Top 8 Host Governorates
Source: IOM Iraq 2016a
Syrian Refugees in Iraq
In addition to its own displaced population, Iraq hosts an estimated 250,000 Syrian refugees (as
of March 31, 2016), primarily concentrated in the governorates of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
As of January 2016, approximately 96,000 Syrian refugees were accommodated in ten camps in
Anbar (Al-Obadiy); Dahuk (Domiz I, Domiz II, Akre, and Gawilan); Erbil (Basmira, Darashakran,
Kawergosk, and Qushtapa); and Sulaymaniyah (Arbat)4. According to the Kurdistan Regional
Government, 97% of all Syrian refugees in Iraq are in the Kurdistan governorates.
Iraqi Migrants and Refugees
There have always been population movements between Iraq and Syria of a more or less
temporary character. From 2003 to 2010 Jordan and Syria hosted Iraqi families affected by the
war. However, since the 2011 turmoil that has engulfed Syria, Iraqi population movements have
4 UNICEF 2016
Anbar
Sulaymaniyah Salah El-Din
Ninevah Erbil
Kirkuk Dahuk
Baghdad
16
been more complex with Turkey and Jordan hosting the bulk of the refugees5. As of mid-April
2016, there are 54,990 Iraqis registered by UNHCR in Jordan; 89.2% of whom reside in the
Amman governorate (mostly in Greater Amman). Over half of the Riaqi’s in Jordan (53.9%) come
from Baghdad governorate6. The greatest flow of Iraqis to Jordan since 2013 occurred in the
second half of 2014, aligning with the greatest wave of internal displacement in Iraq that same
year.
Globally, as of June 2015, UNHCR lists approximately 518,000 refugees and asylum seekers from
Iraq (378,000 and 142,000, respectively) presumably included in the UN DESA out migration
component in section 2.3. Iraqis constituted a significant group in the recent migrant wave
through Europe in the fall of 2015. Findings from the application of IOM’s Displacement Tracking
Matrix in Europe in November and December of 2015 indicate that, 11% came from Ninevah, but
only 5.1% actually resided in Ninevah before they left. While 90% of all refugees transited through
Turkey and 28% left from Baghdad International Airport7.
2.7 Governorate population projections 2010-2030
Iraq is still experiencing conflict and turmoil, but also post conflict reconstruction in the densest
most productive governorates. Sub-national population projections are complicated by the
situation on the ground in each governorate. Anbar and Ninevah are still partially occupied and
the governorates in the northwest experience some conflict zones along the borders, particularly
in Salah El Din and Dahuk. Despite sporadic turmoil, Baghdad and the central governorates can
be considered post conflict, while the southern and western governorates from Erbil to Basra are
stabilized.
Establishing a base year 2015 population
The population statistics compiled by COSIT and the most recent socio-economic survey provide
the only sources of estimates of base year governorate populations. National figures can be more
accurately projected and the conflict situation made it difficult for COSIT to get updated
population figures at the subnational level. Hence their use of a stable percentage distribution
over the 2011-2015 period to arrive at governorate population estimates that were needed for
budgeting and other governance purposes. Pre 2015 population estimates relied on 2009 UN-
DESA figures for birth, death, and migration rates, which as stated earlier were revised by UN-
DESA in 2015 based on evidence of an increase in fertility which resulted in higher rates of
population growth in Iraq and throughout the Arab region.
5 Serageldin et. al. 2015 6 UNCHR 2016 7 IOM Iraq 2016b
17
The use of a stable percentage to distribute of the projected national population among the
governorates is an approximation that does not take into consideration changing differences in
economic opportunity and the conflict induced internal population movements. Already before
June 2014 IOM enumerated 86,324 IDP families. By July 2014 116,897 new IDP households had
been added and another 126,652 in August. A further 83,455 were displaced after September
2015 and 146,003 in April 2015.
The projections presented below have used the DESA 2015 revised rates to project the national
population from 2015 to 2030. The COSIT percentage distribution was then applied to the 2015
DESA national population to arrive at a base year (2015) population projection at the governorate
level.
Impact of IDP movements
The population movements triggered by the conflict have a direct impact on sub-national
entities. The smaller the administrative level considered, the greater the effect can be. Some
governorates are receiving and sending IDPs simultaneously depending on the location of
displacement and direction of flows. As expected the majority of IDPs have moved to
governorates other than their own governorates of origin. Only 38% of IDP households are
displaced within their governorate. Of the 62% of IDP households who are outside their
governorates, 83% come from Anbar or Ninevah. The governorates of Baghdad, Dahuk, and Erbil
have the largest numbers of IDPs from other governorates. Over 70% of the IDP households in
Baghdad are from Anbar, whereas nearly 99% of those displaced to Dahuk are from Ninevah as
seen in Table 2.10.
Table 2.11 Internal Displacement in Iraq Across Governorates (excluding displacement within Governorates)
Governorate IDP Households
displaced to Governorate
IDP Households displaced from Governorate
Anbar 3,031 143,797
Babylon 7,275 2,610 Baghdad 90,806 2,922 Basrah 1,904 0 Dahuk 66,051 0 Diyala 1,503 8,053 Erbil 59,015 15 Kerbala 11,389 0 Kirkuk 45,659 3,533 Missan 1,103 0 Muthanna 1,053 0 Najaf 13,269 0 Ninevah 2,555 144,079 Qadissiya 4,043 0
18
Salah al-Din 3,001 39,856 Sulaymaniyah 27,318 0 Thi-Qar 1,542 0 Wassit 4,348 0 Source: Calculations made based on the IOM Iraq DTM as of April 16, 2016
To account for population movements between governorates, the projection has relied on the
excellent searchable matrix posted by IOM which gives a detailed picture of the situation on the
ground as of April 2016. IDP populations move entailing that projections must reflect these
changing flows. The matrix was used to estimate the net flow of IDPs between governorates. IOM
tracks the number of IDP households. To arrive at a population count, average household sizes
were computed from the COSIT population estimates and the socio-economic household survey
of 2011 and are shown in the following table. Reflecting the extended family pattern, households
are large averaging between seven and eight persons. The smaller size recorded for the Kurdistan
governorates may be due to inflow of migrants from Syria to the capital cities.
Table 2.12 Average household size per Governorate 2011
Governorate 2011
Population
2011 #
households
Average
Household
Size
Anbar 1,561,407 190,537 8.19
Babylon 1,820,673 255,177 7.13
Baghdad 7,055,196 1,096,832 6.43
Basrah 2,531,997 350,149 7.23
Dahuk 1,128,745 187,602 6.02
Diyala 1,443,173 209,989 6.87
Erbil 1,612,692 332,676 4.85
Kerbala 1,066,567 155,224 6.87
Kirkuk 1,395,614 245,919 5.68
Missan 971,448 129,464 7.50
Muthanna 719,069 87,742 8.20
Najaf 1,285,484 184,981 6.95
Ninevah 3,270,422 438,475 7.46
Qadissiya 1,134,313 145,987 7.77
Salah al-Din 1,408,174 187,785 7.50
Sulaymaniyah 1,878,764 394,358 4.76
Thi-Qar 1,836,181 232,220 7.91
Wassit 1,210,591 158,864 7.62
Total 33,330,510 4,983,981 6.69
Source: COSIT 2011
19
Projection Methodology
UN-DESA projections of national birth and death rates according to the 2015 revision were used
to project the population of individual governorates over subsequent five year time periods from
2015 to 2030. The IOM displacement matrix was used to arrive at the net flow in each
governorate. This two step process provides the best estimate of projections. These IDP
movements will change the subnational population distribution without affecting the total
national population.
Over a projection period of 15 years, it is improbable that the IDPs will all return to their homes.
Many times, they return briefly to recuperate their assets, particularly houses, which they then
rent or sell. Returnees find it difficult to exercise their property rights if titles are lacking or
unclear or if properties are occupied by intruders who cannot be easily evicted. In conflict areas,
recently liberated cities often continue to experience violence and are insecure for more or less
longer periods of time.
Based on the Balkan countries experience we assume that about 30% of the IDPs will
permanently return to their hometowns during the 2015-2020 period in the stabilized
governorates of the north, south and east. In the 2020-2025 period 40% of the remaining
displacees will return to the west central governorates including Kirkuk and Salah El Din. In the
2025-2030 period 30% of the remainder may be able to return mostly in the liberated areas of
Ninevah and Anbar. In essence these assumptions imply that over the next 15 years no more
than 60% will return to their governorates of origin, while 40% will remain in the governorate to
which they have moved.
Tracking the IDP movements entails estimating household sizes for households leaving their host
governorates as well as households returning to their governorates of origin. The leaving
population is estimated using a weighted composite household size reflecting the composition
of the IDPs present in the governorate according to their governorate of origin as shown in the
IOM tracking matrix. Intra governorate movements are excluded. Anbar and Ninevah displaces
are not assumed to return in large number for the first five year period (2015-2020) due to
ongoing violence and potential conflict. The returning IDP populations are computed based on
the average household size of their governorate of origin to which they are returning. Based on
these assumptions, the population projections for the governorates from 2015 to 2030 are given
below.
20
Table 2.13: Population projections for Governorates with estimated IDP movements 2015-2030
Source: Calculations made based on IOM Iraq DTM as of April 16, 2016 and United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,
Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
The estimated leaving and returning population totals for these five year periods are within 2%
of each other respectively. The total population factoring in the IDP movements is within is within
2% of the base national population projection. This is a good margin given the need to estimate
household size and forecast population flows.
The projections in the above matrix should be considered the most plausible estimates given the
revised DESA rates and the current IOM figures. Changes over time will occur and should lead to
future revisions. It is therefore important to follow the evolution of the demographic picture and
the IOM tracking of IDPs in order to update the governorate population projections as needed
over the next 15 years.
Governorate2015
(base year)2020
2015-
2020
Leaving
2015-
2020
Returnees
2020 with
Returnees2025
2020-2025
Leaving
2020-2025
Returnees
2025 with
Returnees2030
2025-
2030
Leaving
2025-
2030
Returnees
2030 with
Returnees
Anbar 1,828,965 2,097,924 (5,532) 2,086,859 2,381,259 (6,423) 471,353 2,896,422 2,690,236 (2,890) 212,109 3,508,608
Babylon 2,132,658 2,446,277 (564) 5,587 2,445,149 2,776,658 (22,140) 5,214 2,756,167 3,136,940 (9,963) 2,346 3,105,184
Baghdad 8,264,153 9,479,441 (29,625) 3,709 9,420,191 10,759,686 (275,624) 3,462 10,383,515 12,155,792 (124,031) 1,558 11,592,447
Basrah 2,965,872 3,402,020 (1,510) - 3,399,000 3,861,479 (5,109) - 3,852,252 4,362,519 (2,299) - 4,349,497
Dahuk 1,322,163 1,516,595 (409) - 1,515,776 1,721,418 (197,021) - 1,496,859 1,944,778 (88,660) - 1,590,918
Diyala 1,690,471 1,939,064 (1,338) 16,604 1,936,388 2,200,944 (4,185) 15,497 2,210,747 2,486,524 (1,883) 6,973 2,503,350
Erbil 1,889,038 2,166,831 (13,739) 22 2,139,352 2,459,472 (179,241) 20 2,224,857 2,778,597 (80,659) 9 2,422,425
Kerbala 1,249,331 1,433,051 (858) - 1,431,336 1,626,592 (33,802) - 1,586,278 1,837,648 (15,211) - 1,774,919
Kirkuk 1,634,762 1,875,163 (39,754) 6,015 1,795,655 2,128,413 (126,477) 5,614 1,900,981 2,404,582 (56,915) 2,526 2,086,194
Missan 1,137,912 1,305,249 (517) - 1,304,215 1,481,529 (3,031) - 1,476,915 1,673,762 (1,364) - 1,667,009
Muthanna 842,287 966,149 (349) - 965,452 1,096,632 (3,051) - 1,092,378 1,238,924 (1,373) - 1,232,566
Najaf 1,505,761 1,727,191 (250) - 1,726,692 1,960,456 (39,588) - 1,914,956 2,214,832 (17,814) - 2,143,302
Ninewa 3,830,832 4,394,176 (3,599) 4,386,978 4,987,631 (6,155) 429,853 5,460,380 5,634,793 (2,770) 193,434 6,384,287
Qadissiya 1,328,685 1,524,076 (991) - 1,522,094 1,729,910 (11,625) - 1,714,465 1,954,371 (5,231) - 1,931,013
Salah al-Din 1,649,474 1,892,039 (3,543) 89,662 1,884,952 2,147,568 (6,612) 83,685 2,227,006 2,426,222 (2,975) 37,658 2,555,150
Sulaymaniyah 2,200,703 2,524,329 (19,919) - 2,484,491 2,865,251 (76,662) - 2,733,018 3,237,028 (34,498) - 3,048,663
Thi-Qar 2,150,823 2,467,114 (530) - 2,466,054 2,800,309 (4,370) - 2,794,146 3,163,659 (1,967) - 3,154,475
Wassit 1,418,034 1,626,564 (501) - 1,625,561 1,846,239 (12,909) - 1,830,449 2,085,795 (5,809) - 2,061,393
Total 39,041,927 44,783,251 (123,528) 121,598 44,536,195 50,831,447 (1,014,024) 1,014,698 50,551,789 57,427,003 (456,311) 456,614 57,111,401
21
Section 3 Economic Analysis
Iraq has to cope with the challenges of conflict on its territory, warfare in the northern and
western governorates, particularly Mosul, disruption of its traditional trade routes and pipelines
adversely affecting its economy and lately severe economic recession due to the slump in oil
prices. Recovery and post conflict reconstruction should aim at sustainable development and
growth. Iraqi economists and planners realize that this transition from crisis to opportunity is a
process that requires economic restructuring and diversification, as well as, funds for capital
investments. While some donor funding for specific programs can be secured, it is critical that
Iraq pursues its own development agenda and sets the strategies that will drive the process.
Several factors present Iraq with serious challenges:
• The sheer magnitude of the destruction suffered in the conflicts, which has affected
infrastructure, housing, and industrial establishments;
• The decline in oil prices and the forecasts regarding the fluctuations of the oil markets;
and
• The reliance on public sector employment which accounts for close to 50% of the formal
employment to provide jobs for the labor force.
With few exceptions, the GDP and households incomes in the different governorates have fallen
the past three years.
The current recession has adversely affected the availability of jobs. The increase in the ratio of
public sector to private sector employment and the expansion of the informal economy are
indicative of both the depth of the downturn and the reliance on oil revenues. The current
situation whereby the public sector provides over 40% of the employment in the civil service and
in about 190 state owned enterprises (SOEs), whose efficiency and economic viability are a
matter of concern, is unsustainable in the longer term, particularly in light of the oil sector
forecasts and market responses to price fluctuations.
Criticism of Iraqi SOEs derives from the same issues encountered in transitional economies
elsewhere. They control important segments of the economy, large land holdings, and key urban
assets. Their lack of efficiency entails significant subsidization by the government. In Iraq these
subsidies have fluctuated between 3 and 4% of GDP since 20088. Part of the deficit they incur is
due to overstaffing. Despite obvious redundancies, the government is understandably reluctant
8 World Bank 2014.
22
to cut the workforce at this time. Opting for recurrent capital injections is only possible as a short
term measure unless oil prices rebound to $75.2 per barrel, a currently unlikely prospect9.
3.1 Governorate GDP Computation Methodology
Economic performance measured by the GDP represents the value of gross output less the value
of intermediate goods and services and is calculated by summing the value added by all the
producers. An important consideration given the concern for sustainability and the environment
is that consumption of capital stock including the depletion of natural resources is not accounted
for leading many experts to call for the necessity to revise the GDP accounting method. Other
issues that have to be taken into consideration are the large proportion of informal economic
activities that are not reported and the share of agricultural production that is consumed by the
farmer households and therefore escape the GDP accounting by the value added method. .The
alternative method based on income /expenditure compilation is more difficult to account for
and is considered less reliable than the value added by production method.
Figure 3.1 Formula for Calculating Value Added per Worker
Figure 3.2 Methodology for Calculating Governorate GDP
9 Spindle 2016.
23
In the course of the next decade the Iraqi economy will undergo a series of partial
restructurings as they become politically feasible to diversify its economic base and compete in
the globalized economy. These changes, as they occur will be reflected in the sectoral
distribution of the GDP. Even though oil will continue to be the dominant industry, new growth
industries will emerge.
Every structural change in the economy will entail requirements for labor with new or enhanced
skills. Ideally educational and training programs will be developed to teach students, job seekers,
and employees the skills needed to compete in the market as employees or entrepreneurs.
Whether economic restructuring occurs through a managed planned transition process or is
driven by technological innovation, the value added per worker in the different sectors will
change to reflect the mix of productive activities in each sector, their capital and labor intensity,
and their productivity at a particular point in time.
Over the past two decades, spatial disparities in all countries have increased despite government
efforts to foster balanced spatial development through redistribution policies and infrastructure
projects, as well as, incentives to attract investment to lagging areas which carry a higher risk. In
Iraq, as in other countries experiencing similar conflict situations, conflict induced constraints on
the mobility of labor and businesses compound growth imbalances and increase income
disparities among governorates and smaller administrative units.
The Ministry of Planning Central Statistical Organization National Accounts Department used
both methods for the provisional estimate of the 2013 GDP posted in February 2015. The value
added per worker method was selected by the project team to estimate the governorates’ GDP.
At the sub national level the method provides a good estimated value because it looks to the
24
country as a single economic space where value added per worker in each economic sector is
uniform across this space, which may not be the case in reality. Variability occurs within a more
or less limited range. Quite apart from security issues unique to countries experiencing conflicts,
the availability of land, supporting infrastructure and services and the particular character of the
sectoral activities and the costs of procuring their inputs and marketing their outputs will vary
between locations affecting productivity and the value added per worker. Despite this
assumption, the methodology is well adapted to the computations of the governorates GDP. It
has the flexibility required to deal with the dynamic economic environment of post conflict
reconstruction.
While public efforts focus on rebuilding strategic economic and civilian infrastructure, private
activity restarts with the construction, transport, and trade/commerce sectors. All governorates
have suffered extensive destruction of their infrastructure, therefore repair, modernization and
expansion of infrastructure is a priority as it is the cornerstone of economic recovery from the
current recession and the structural frame for post conflict socio-economic reconstruction in the
different governorates.
3.2 Importance of economic analysis to the formulation and implementation of national and
governorate urban strategies
National urban strategies provide the framework for development across governorate
boundaries and determine the alignment of development corridors to optimize benefits, ensure
sectoral coherence, and identify the key projects needed for their implementation. Potential
growth sectors and opportunities differ between governorates hence they each have their own
needs. It is therefore important to analyze the economic performance of the different
governorates since they are determinants of the structural spatial components of urban plans.
These components include transport, energy distribution, fiber optic cables, communications,
and water supply and sanitation. Requirements have to be integrated in strategic development
plans and structure plans that focus on land management, improving the existing urban fabric
including informal areas, shaping and regulating urban growth, identifying and planning new
urban nodes and extensions, integrating returnees and resettling IDPs. Governorate structure
plans are therefore key instruments of urban management and capital investment programming.
These tasks are at the core of economic development and can only be conceived in the context
of interlinked national urban strategies and integrated governorate structure plans to ensure
coherence in planning and coordination in implementation. Development corridors cross
administrative boundaries connecting governorate capital cities, gateways and border crossings.
They create opportunities for the development of growth nodes and revitalize cities, towns and
villages along their path as well as secondary cities well connected to them reducing economic
25
disparities and social distance. As security improves, options for shared initiatives and services
provision among adjacent localities tend to materialize.
The platform developed by I2UD experts draws on statistical national and governorate databases
being assembled to provide an interactive framework for developing and monitoring plans and
programs and assessing their impact. This is a particularly important task because of the wide
range of projects required by reconstruction. Furthermore post conflict projects carry high levels
of risks and have to be assessed in this light, from the perspective of both the national
government and the governorates.
3.3 Overview of the context in growth and employment as it affects subnational GDP
To analyze the spatial distribution of production and employment in Iraq, the methodology used
relied on national GDP and employment to compute the value added per worker in each
economic sector and apply this figure to local employment to arrive at an estimate of governorate
GDP. This methodology has been discussed in detail in section 3.1 of this report first submitted
in March as an interim report. This section presents the results of these computations. The
evolution of employment is analyzed to provide the context for a better understanding of the
structure of production and employment in the governorates and their development potential in
the medium term.
The employment dataset obtained from the Ministry of Planning is drawn from the 2013/2014
socio-economic survey which is usually based on a sample of a few thousand households across
all governorates. Most of the socio-economic data included in the governorate structure plans
also relies on the findings of these ongoing surveys.
The employment dataset has two shortcomings that have to be addressed in the methodology
used to compute governorate GDP:
1. It includes a mix of employment and occupation categories in the same table requiring
that occupation be reclassified under the most appropriate sector to match ILO statistics
which give employment by economic sector10.
2. It includes a category varying from 0.7% to 10.4% with an average of 5.0% of the total
employment which is unallocated and labeled unknown. It is not clear whether
respondents did not wish to state an informal activity or whether they are unemployed.
10 ILO 2008
26
Usually unemployment figures are included in the analysis of the labor force together
with the distinctions between active and non-active labor. Further clarification may be
extracted later from the information available with the governorate administrations.
These drawbacks are tempered by the statistical difficulties encountered in processing raw
figures obtained through interviews or questionnaires. There is always a degree of arbitrariness
in coding some responses no matter how structured the survey instruments are because some
occupations can be classified under one or another category.
A reasonable option for the treatment of the unknown category is to attribute to it the average
value added per worker in the governorate exclusive of the oil sector, since it was assumed that
the unclear unclassified occupation would probably not be in this sector and its high value added
per worker could distort the GDP estimate. Under any option treatment of the “unknown”
category will be an estimate based on best professional judgment.
The governorates of Anbar and Ninevah are still experiencing conflict hence figures obtained for
employment and the associated GDP can only be considered rough estimates that may or may
not reflect the reality on the ground today. The situation of provinces in the conflict is always
dynamic, witnessing important population movements in accordance with the changes in conflict
on the ground. All human settlements in the governorates have sustained serious damage. The
economic base has been in turn disrupted, reoriented and has declined due to ongoing violence.
The state of destruction and disrepair of infrastructure and buildings are indicative of the massive
reconstruction effort needed and the impediments to economic revival until security is fully
restored and repair work well advanced.
3.4 Value Added per Worker
As can be expected in an oil producing country the sectors that contribute the highest value
added per worker, namely, mining, real estate and finance employ only a limited number of
workers, while oil production and exports are the mainstay of public revenues; real estate
generates private profits. In particular the high value and appreciation of urban land underpins
the value added by real estate development. It will be important for governorates to leverage
their investments in infrastructure to recover part of the appreciation in real estate value created
by public investment in services. New mechanisms are needed to accomplish this task
Governorates should explore innovative approaches in their strategic plans.
27
3.5 Evolution of Employment
Table 3.3 Governorate Employment
Several sources were reviewed to analyze the evolution of employment. The ILO labor statistics
post figures for 2006, 2007, and 200811. There are also World Bank figures from 2007 to 201212.
The Ministry of planning dataset is based on the annual socio-economic survey and includes
figures from 2012, 2013, and 2014.
This period coincided with a boom in oil prices, which buoyed the economy in post conflict areas.
The sharp decline in oil prices during 2015 and early 2016 led to a severe downturn across all
economic sectors, including in the Erbil and Sulaymaniyah governorates. While the country is
trying to overcome this recession, the governorates are cash strapped. Economic activities formal
and informal are badly affected, significantly increasing unemployment. It is unclear whether the
most recent increase in oil prices signals the beginning of a reduction of the glut of oil on the
world markets or is a transitory fluctuation. Even if this is the start of a welcome reversal, the
price decline was so sharp that its economic impact will be felt for several years to come.
11 ILO 2008 12 World Bank. 2016.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
DIY
ALA
MU
THA
NN
A
BA
SRA
H
NIN
EVEH
KIR
KU
K
AN
BA
R
BA
GH
DA
D
BA
BYL
ON
KER
BEL
A
WA
SIT
SALE
H A
L D
EEN
NA
JAF
QA
DIS
IYA
THI-
QA
R
MIS
AN
DA
HU
K
ERB
IL
SULA
YMA
NIY
AH
UNKNOWN
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Private households with employed persons
Other community,social and personal servicesactivitiesHealth and social Work
Education
Public administration and defence;compulsorysocial securityReal estate,renting and business activities
Financial intermediation
Transport,Storage and Communications
Hotels and Restaurants
Wholesale & Retail Trade
Building and Construction
Electricity and Water supply
Manufacturing Industry
28
3.6 Economic Performance and Growth Prospects
In its analysis of the link between growth and employment in the 2007-2012 period, the World
Bank noted that Iraq’s GDP grew at an annual rate of 7% between 2008 and 201213. It was a
period of recovery and macroeconomic stabilization based on rising oil prices and production. By
2012 the country achieved a fiscal surplus of 4% of GDP with oil receipts accounting for around
80% of public revenues14. However job creation during the period remained almost stagnant,
leading to an increase in unemployment due to the inability to generate jobs commensurate with
the growth of the labor force. The oil sector throughout its different phases (exploration,
transport, refining, and export) is capital intensive and does not generate many jobs.
Manufacturing did not grow at a rate that could absorb the job seekers due to the magnitude of
the damage to infrastructure during wars, particularly transport and electricity a requirement for
this sector.
The growing numbers of young entrants in the labor force looking for employment were joined
by workers leaving agriculture. Rural income declined due to the disruption caused by lingering
conflicts even in the southern governorates where it once flourished. Rural poverty increased
driving people to seek opportunities to earn a livelihood in the cities mostly in informal activities
while waiting for a job in construction or public administration. Poverty was being transferred
from rural to urban areas and was aggravated by the movement of IDPs to the larger centers, in
particular Baghdad.
During the oil boom, the government used the revenues to repair part of the damage suffered
by infrastructure and urban services and to launch housing programs. However in terms of
employment the most significant feature was the expansion of public sector, which accounted
for the bulk of new jobs. Like other countries in the region, Iraq looked to the public sector to
relieve the adverse social and political impacts of growing unemployment. The welfare objective
underpinning this policy is demonstrated by the high proportion of lower skilled workers hired.15
The post war period did require restructuring and shoring up public administration and setting
up new public agencies to deal with the critical issues facing the country and each of the
governorates. In the Kurdistan region, where the government benefited from earlier security and
relative stability it also expanded the civil service. Furthermore wages and salaries in the public
sector were increased in parallel with the growth in public revenue.
13 World Bank. 2015b. 14 World Bank. 2014. 15 According to the World Bank, 60% did not complete primary education.
29
The decline in oil prices, aggravated by the ongoing conflict induced displacement of local
populations and the inflow of Syrian refugees, eroded the capacity of public revenue to keep up
with public expenditures inflated by the burden of wages, salaries, and pensions. The resulting
economically and politically disruptive delays in project executions and arrears in payments of
wages and salaries affected both productivity and the capacity to foster social inclusion.
From an economic perspective, the loss of revenue undermined the effort to diversify the
economy and strengthen private enterprise across a broader range of economic sectors to create
sustainable jobs. Depreciation of the currency should help revitalize manufacturing and
agriculture by increasing the competitiveness of their products. Improvement of security,
stability, and public services are prerequisites to support this effort.
Given that the agriculture sector provided livelihoods for over 20% of the population including
over one third of the poor it is not surprising that poverty did not decline during the oil price
boom. Despite overall improvement in access to services, disparities between urban and rural
areas are significant. More importantly rural poverty remained at double the proportion of urban
poverty spurring continued rural/urban migration and accounting for the spatial disparities in
deprivation. Revitalizing the agriculture sector should be a priority. In an arid region, Iraq is
blessed with two of the region’s major rivers and a fertile soil that can sustain a thriving rural
economy.
To overcome these imbalances the World Bank emphasizes the importance of economic
diversification by strengthening the links between the oil sector and other productive sectors
where the role of private enterprise could expand including manufacturing, construction, finance
(banking), tourism, and commercial activities16. These “resource corridors” represent the
economic parallel to the spatial development corridor, which will structure the national urban
strategy framework. Both are conceived to promote growth and foster spillover effects. They
both require appropriate infrastructure, particularly transport, energy, and communications, as
well as a labor force with technical skills.
In its review of public expenditures, the World Bank addresses macroeconomic stability, financial
management, and service delivery. Among the key issues highlighted is the expansion of public
sector employment, the fuel and food subsidies and the pension system, which all need improved
management and better targeting. These issues are by no means unique to Iraq except that the
complexity of the context and the magnitude of the challenges that Iraq faces are daunting and
account for the lower rate of execution of capital investment budgets noted by the World Bank.
16 World Bank. 2015a.
30
The national development plan and the poverty reduction strategy include strategic
considerations that will be reviewed. The key orientations will provide guidance in the
elaboration for the national urban strategy framework: the strategic objectives shaping the
framework will reflect the specific challenges that are discussed in this analysis of GDP,
employment, and their spatial distribution.
3.7 A general perspective on GDP and Employment in the Governorates
This section of the report presents and analyzes the structure of employment and the associated
GDP estimates. It is important to keep in mind that the employment data are based on a
2013/2014 household survey and the national GDP reflects the situation in 2012. As discussed
above the economic situation has since changed due to the decline in oil prices. Unemployment
and socio-economic hardships increased. While detailed numbers may have changed the overall
composition of employment, GDP will only change gradually as the structure of the economy
changes through policies promoting diversification, supporting the emergence of growth sectors
and alleviating problems created by the shrinkage of declining sectors.
31
Table 3.3 Map of Iraq’s Governorates
Source: wikipedia.org
The governorates have been grouped in subsets:
1. The Greater Baghdad Metropolitan Area
2. The Southern Anchor zone: Basrah and Muthanna
3. The Northern Oil producing Cluster: Kirkuk, Salah al Deen and Ninevah
4. The Kurdistan Regional Government Area: Dahuk, Sulaymaniya, and Erbil
5. The Basrah/Baghdad Corridor: Thi-Qar, Qadissiya, and Babylon
6. The Eastern Corridor: Misan, Wasit, Diyala
7. The Pilgrimage Centers: Kerbela and Najaf
Governorate GDP is presented in table, graph, and pie chart to facilitate focusing on individual
governorates by the local teams using the platform. The statistical analysis is supplemented by
maps displaying the spatial distribution of population and GDP. Key features that influence this
distribution are outlined.
32
Figure 3.4 Relative GDP per Governorate
Figure 3.5 GDP per Governorate
-
10,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
30,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
50,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
DIY
ALA
MU
THA
NN
A
BA
SRA
H
NIN
EVEH
KIR
KU
K
AN
BA
R
BA
GH
DA
D
BA
BYL
ON
KER
BEL
A
WA
SIT
SALE
H A
L D
EEN
NA
JAF
QA
DIS
IYA
THI-
QA
R
MIS
AN
DA
HU
K
ERB
IL
SULA
YMA
NIY
AH
UNKNOWN
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Private households with employed persons
Other community,social and personal servicesactivities
Health and social Work
Education
Public administration and defence;compulsory socialsecurity
Real estate,renting and business activities
Financial intermediation
Transport,Storage and Communications
Hotels and Restaurants
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles,motorcycles and personal and householdgoodsBuilding and Construction
33
3.7.1 The Greater Baghdad Metropolitan Area
The primacy of Baghdad is not surprising and follows a pattern common in the whole Middle
East/ West Asia region. As a historic capital, it has the foremost educational, healthcare, and
other public services. Its economy is the most diversified. Despite the damages inflicted by the
wars, Baghdad governorate generates 19.4% of the national GDP and provides 28.3% of the
employment for the labor force. Employment is mostly in public sector dominated categories,
namely: public administration and defense, manufacturing (SOEs), and transportation and
communications. Private employment is mostly in wholesale and retail trade and personal
services, two major sectors that provide formal and informal employment in a metropolitan area
the size of Baghdad.
While employment in the oil sector barely accounts for 1% of the total employment, the sector
nevertheless contributes to 36% of the governorate GDP, followed by real estate, renting, and
business activities and public administration. The unknown category in the case of Baghdad has
a proportionately significant impact on the GDP due to the importance of the high value added
sectors.
Figure 3.6 Baghdad GDP per Sector
0.2% 0.1%
36.0%
3.2%
1.8%4.9%
8.4%
1.4%
5.5%2.3%
10.2%
8.1%
3.3%
2.5%1.9%
0.1% 10.1%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles,motorcycles and personal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
34
3.7.2 The Southern Anchor Zone: Basrah & Muthanna
Basrah is the second largest contributor to the national economy generating 14.3% of the GDP.
As Iraq’s only port, it is to be expected that Basrah’s economy would be overwhelmingly
dominated by the oil sector at 77.22%. The disruption of the pipelines that crossed the Ninevah
governorate has reinforced Basrah’s role as the key gateway for export of petroleum and
petroleum products. Building and construction and public administration and defense are the
next largest contributors to the governorate GDP at 5.73% and 3.18% respectively, a feature
Basrah shares with other governorates where post conflict reconstruction is actively progressing.
These two sectors provide the largest sources of employment followed by wholesale and retail
trade and transportation and communications.
This pattern is not expected to change in the midterm until the network of pipelines across
Ninevah is restored, repaired, and operational.
Figure 3.7 Basrah GDP per Sector
0.5% 0.1%
77.2%
0.9%
2.0%5.7%
3.0%0.2%
3.2% 0.3%
3.7%
1.3% 0.8%0.2% 0.7% Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles,motorcycles and personal and household goods
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory socialsecurity
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
35
Muthanna’s economy reflects its geographic location between the river valleys and desert area,
and its bordering on the Basrah/Baghdad corridor. Its GDP structure lacks specialized dominant
sectors. Oil generates 26.6% of the GDP followed by construction with 17.0% and public
administration with 12.8%. The two latter sectors are also major generators of jobs providing
employment for 23.9% and 15.2% of the labor force respectively. Agriculture in the north close
to Qadyssia is a distant third, while trade could yet develop as a spillover from Basra when the
latter has achieved its full development potential.
Figure 3.8 Muthanna GDP per Sector
3.7.3 Northern Oil Producing Cluster: Salah al Deen, Kirkuk, Ninevah
Salah al Deen is a strategic governorate, crossed by the two major transports corridors linking
Baghdad to Mosul and Kirkuk. It also encompasses Iraq’s largest refinery located at Baiji, 200 km
north of Baghdad on the road to Mosul. The refinery produced over one third of the country’s oil
output.
6.2%
0.1%
26.6%
1.3%
2.3%
17.0%5.5%0.8%
4.8%1.2%
12.7%
4.6%
1.9%
0.8% 14.5%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcyclesand personal and household goods
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
36
Bordering on Anbar and Ninevah, Salah al Deen experienced periods of prolonged conflict,
particularly in 2014 when the refinery was overrun by extremists. The Iraq army retook the
refinery in 2015 and established full control over the road from Baghdad to Baiji. The fighting
inflicted severe damage on the refinery, as well as widespread destruction in Baiji and other
towns.
Oil related activities provide 32.6% of the governorate’s GDP. This figure will be affected by the
refinery’s level of operation while being repaired. Construction and public administration
contribute to the GDP in the amount of 11.7% and 11.1% respectively. Building and construction
constitute the largest component of employment at 19.1%, followed by public administration at
15.4% and manufacturing at 12.5%.
Figure 3.9 Salah al Deen GDP per Sector
Kirkuk governorate encompasses major oil fields that produce about half of Iraq’s oil exports. The
area experienced violence in 2013 and war in 2014, which caused damage to the city and energy
infrastructure. The oil sector dominates the economy accounting for 51.9% of its GDP. The next
largest contributor is agriculture generating 7.4% ahead of construction and public
administration with 5.6% and 5.0% respectively.
Not surprisingly, agriculture is the largest provider of employment creating 19.5% of the jobs. As
in other governorates, building and construction with 8.4%, trade with 7.7% and public
4.5%
32.6%
3.0%
2.6%11.7%
4.0%
0.1%3.5%
0.6%
4.0%
11.1%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
15.4%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
37
administration with 6.3% are major employers, although their smaller relative proportion in this
case reflects the broader distribution of employment over the range of categories and the
diversity of the settlements and population. The capital city of Kirkuk was named the capital of
Iraq culture in 2010 by the Ministry of Culture. In Kirkuk and Salah al Deen the unknown category
encompasses between 7% and 8% of the jobs recorded in the survey, exceeded only by Erbil with
9.6% and Anbar with 10.4%.
The Kirkuk oil fields are estimated to have ten billion barrels of proven oil reserves and the
governorate is considered the fifth richest oil source in the world. Despite problems of technical
management and conflict generated damage, Kirkuk’s economy will remain a key contributor to
the national GDP once the oil sector is fully operational.
Figure 3.10 Kirkuk GDP per Sector
According to the statistics oil provides 17.8% of Ninevah’s GDP, followed by building and
construction with 16.15%, which is also a major source of employment providing 19.7% jobs,
followed by trade with 13.8% and services with 11.9%.
7.4%
51.9%
0.6%
0.6%
5.6%
4.1%0.3%
3.0%
0.3%
0.0% 5.0%
1.8%
0.9%
0.4%18.0%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
38
Figure 3.11 Ninevah GDP per Sector
3.7.4 The Kurdistan Regional Government Area: Dahuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah
In the Kurdistan Region, there is a marked difference between predominately rural Dahuk and
the two more urbanized governorates of Erbil and Sulaymaniyah. Their two capital cities
benefited from the earlier relative security of the area and attracted massive private investments
in real estate and trade. Many projects were not devoid of speculative risks having assumed
continued economic buoyancy. This became painfully evident when the economic downturn
caused by the decline in oil revenues brought private development to a halt in Erbil’s greatly
overbuilt high end residential and commercial markets. While in less affected Sulaymaniyah
construction activities continued although at a somewhat slower pace.
The major contributions to Erbil’s GDP are oil production at 33.1%, and public administration and
defense at 8.1%. Trade is the next important sector with 7.4%. In Sulaymaniyah oil and trade are
dominant accounting for 23.9% and 11.2% of the governorate GDP respectively followed by real
estate, renting and business activities at 8.11%.
Three sectors generate the bulk of the employment in Erbil, namely manufacturing, trade, and
service, which at 30.1% is the dominant sector due to the presence of international and bilateral
organizations and NGOs. Trade and industry at 11.4% benefit from the international airport and
3.0%
0.2%
17.8%
3.2%0.7%
16.2%
8.9%
0.7%
6.6%1.9%
5.1%
8.2%
5.5%
3.6%
1.8%
16.8%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
39
particularly the connections to the Turkish border given the disruption of eastern crossings due
to the ongoing conflict in Ninevah. In Sulaymaniyah, trade and services are the major providers
of employment accounting for 17.9% and 17.4% respectively, followed by transport with just over
10%. In both governorates public administration provides between 7% and 9% of the
employment.
Figure 3.12 Erbil GDP per Sector
Dahuk’s situation is affected by its borders with Syria and Turkey. Mining (oil) and public
administration and defense account for 22.2% and 16.33% of its GDP respectively, while public
administration, education, and trade provide the bulk of the employment, accounting for 19.2%,
13.9%, and 11.0% respectively. In all three governorates in the Kurdistan Region, the number of
workers in the unknown category is higher than the 5% average.
3.9%
0.8%
33.1%
3.5%
0.8%1.2%
7.4%
1.4%
4.9%
1.1%
8.1%2.2%
1.6%
4.2%
25.9%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles,motorcycles and personal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
40
Figure 3.13 Dahuk GDP per Sector
Dahuk’s economy has been burdened by the large inflow of IDPs and Syrian refugees including
ethnic Kurds and Yazidis. With the ongoing conflict in Syria, these population movements are
expected to continue.
Figure 3.14 Proportion of Syrian Refugees in the Kurdistan Region
Source: UNHCR
5.7%
22.2%
1.6%
0.9%6.3%
6.3%
1.1%5.4%
2.6%
4.7%
16.3%
6.7%
3.1%
1.3%
15.7%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
41
Figure 3.15 Sulaymaniyah GDP per Sector
3.7.5 The Basrah/Baghdad Corridor: Thi-Qar, Qadissiya, & Babylon
Babylon, Qadissiya, and Thi-Qar lie along the corridor linking Baghdad to Basrah. Thi-Qar displays
similar characteristics to Basrah in that oil is the dominant sector of the economy generating
55.0% of the GDP, with public administration a distant second with 10.8%. In terms of
employment, public administration provides 19.3% of the jobs in the governorate, followed by
building and construction with 12.8% and transport and communications with 10.9%.
5.4%
0.6%
23.9%
2.6%
0.8%6.6%
11.2%
0.9%
6.8%1.8%
8.1%
6.3%
5.7%
2.8%
2.5%
14.0%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motorvehicles,motorcycles and personal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory socialsecurityEducation
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
42
Figure 3.16 Thi-Qar GDP per Sector
Babylon and Qadisiya are predominately rural provinces benefiting from their geographic
location along the rivers and encompassing the most fertile and productive agricultural land in
Iraq. In Qadisiya agriculture provides 17.4% of its GDP, followed by building and construction with
12.3%. Agriculture provides the largest component of its employment for 22.6% of its labor force.
Construction and services are the second and third generators of employment with 14.9% and
13.3% respectively. The two other significant sectors are transport and public administration.
In Babylon Governorate agriculture provides 19.8% of the jobs and accounts for 10.3% of the
GDP. Other important sources of employment are building and construction (13.7%) trade
(11.5%), and transport (10.6%). In both governorates oil is still the largest contributor to the GDP
with 27.6% in Qadisiya and 44.9% in Babylon, a reflection of the disruption experienced by the
agriculture sector, particularly in Qadisiya’s case. Babylon in time will be increasingly affected by
its proximity to Baghdad.
3.6%
0.1%
55.0%
1.5%
0.7%
6.1%
2.7%
1.5%
4.4%
10.8%
3.0%
2.0%0.6%
8.0%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
43
Figure 3.17 Qadisiya GDP per Sector
Figure 3.18 Babylon GDP per Sector
17.4%
27.6%
1.2%0.6%
12.3%
6.4%0.5%
7.2%0.9%
7.6%
5.6%
2.3%
2.0%
8.3%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
10.2%
44.9%
1.9%1.4%
7.6%
5.0%0.5%
4.9%
0.6%
2.8%
5.6%
2.9%
2.7%0.6%
8.3%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
44
3.7.6 The Eastern Corridor: Misan, Wasit, & Diyala
Wedged between Baghdad and Sulaymaniyah, Diyala lies in an important transport corridor and
backs in its northern part on the mountainous region along the Kurdistan border with Iran.
Building and construction is the dominant economic sector accounting for 23.5% of the total GDP
and 26.8% of the employment. Oil related revenue, public administration and real estate and
business activities are the next significant contributors to the GDP adding 12.4%, 11.2% and
10.6% respectively. The services sector provides 15.5% and public administration provides 10.9%
of employment. The southern sector of the governorate may experience spillover effects from
the Baghdad’s metropolitan area.
Figure 3.19 Diyala GDP per Sector
4.6%
12.4%
2.2%
0.8%
23.5%
5.6%
1.0%
5.5%
4.6%
10.6%
11.2%
6.2%
2.0%
2.5%7.4%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
45
Wasit is part of Iraq’s agricultural heartland together with Qaddissia, southern Babylon and
northern Thi-Qar. Agriculture contributes close to 12% of the GDP, but employs 18.8% of the
labor force. As in most other governorates the oil sector makes the largest contribution to the
GDP at 37.3%. Among other sectors, services, transport, and trade generate jobs for about 12%
of the labor force each, while public administration and transport contribute 6.9% of the
governorate’s GDP each, followed by construction and trade with 6.6% and 6.4% respectively.
Figure 3.20 Wasit GDP per Sector
Similarly to adjacent Basrah, Misan’s economy is dominated by the oil sector, which accounts for
70% of its GDP. In contrast, employment shows the diversity of the secondary sectors, trailing
Baghdad by only 0.3% in terms of relative importance of manufacturing as a source of
employment. Its proximity to Basrah and relative security have attracted population resulting in
stimulating the building and construction sector, which provided jobs for 18.4% of the active
labor force. Services is the most important sector as a source of employment, providing close to
20% of the jobs in the governorate.
11.9%
37.3%
1.5%2.8%
6.6%
6.4%0.5%
6.9%
3.1%
3.5%
6.9%
4.5%
1.8%1.5%
4.8%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcyclesand personal and household goods
Hotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
46
Figure 3.21 Misan GDP per Sector
3.7.7 The Pilgrimage Centers: Kerbela & Najaf
GDP and employment in the governorates of Kerbela and Najaf reflect the special status of their
capitals encompassing holy sites as pilgrimage cities, hence the similarity in their GDP and
employment distribution. In Kerbela, the dominant contributors to the GDP are real estate,
renting and business activities at 43.5%, building and construction at 9.7%, and public
administration and defense at 8.7%. Construction with 15.5%, wholesale and retail trade with
14.8%, and public administration and defense at 11.6% provide the bulk of the employment in
Kerbela.
Similarly in Najaf, real estate, renting and business activities accounted for 15.0% of the GDP,
building and construction 41.4%, trade 13.2%, while the public administration component is
higher at 17.5%. Four sectors also provide the majority of the jobs, namely trade with 17.5%,
public administration with 15.7%, building and construction with 15.1% and transport with
12.0%. In general, employment in both cities is diversified almost equally distributed among the
six sectors.
0.9%
70.0%1.8%
2.4%
6.6%
1.9%
0.1%
3.1%2.0%
1.6%
1.9%
1.3%
1.3%
5.1%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
47
While Kerbela does not have secondary cities in its close proximity, Kufa lies only at a distance of
10 km from Najaf. The public administration figures also reflect the need for higher levels of
security to protect the holy sites.
Figure 3.22 Kerbela GDP per Sector
Figure 3.23 Najaf GDP per Sector
3.9%
0.2% 2.4%
3.6%
9.8%
7.5%
0.8%5.4%
1.2%43.5%
8.7%
4.9%
4.1%
0.6%
3.5%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
48
3.7.8 Desert Zone: Anbar
Figure 3.24 Map of Iraq showing aridity of Anbar governorate
6.1%
0.2% 3.1%
2.4%
14.4%
13.2%
0.7%9.6%
0.6%
15.0%
17.5%
5.9%
3.4%
1.1%
6.8%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
49
Source: University of Texas
The governorate of Anbar bordering on Syria lies mostly within the desert zone. According to the
2014 statistics oil provided 53.3% of Anbar’s GDP, followed by agriculture at 7.4%. Agriculture is
the lead employment sector providing 17.4% of the jobs, followed by services and education with
just about 12.5% each. Given that the governorate is still experiencing conflict, it is not surprising
that the unknown employment category is the highest among governorates at 10.4%. Its high
contribution to the GDP only reflects its size. Anbar’s statistics must be fully reexamined when
better data becomes available.
50
Figure 3.25 Anbar GDP per Sector
7.4%0.1%
53.3%
1.5%
2.4%
4.1%
3.0%
0.1%
3.0%
2.5%
4.1%
0.9%
1.0% 16.6%
Agriculture,Hunting&Forestry
Fishing
Mining and Quarrying
Manufacturing Industry
Electricity and Water supply
Building and Construction
Wholesale & Retail Trade, repair of motor vehicles,motorcycles andpersonal and household goodsHotels and Restaurants
Transport,Storage and Communications
Financial intermediation
Real estate,renting and business activities
Public administration and defence;compulsory social security
Education
Health and social Work
Other community,social and personal services activities
Private households with employed persons
Extra-territorial organizations and bodies
Unknown
51
3.8 Concluding Remarks
To achieve a rate of growth of over 6% needed for economic recovery Iraq must restore the
functional efficiency of its key cities. This will require collaborative action between the national
ministries, the governorates, and the city administrations, particularly the larger cities which
drive growth and diversification of the economy beyond the oil sector. Redistribution of oil
revenues is not sufficient to create sustainable development as became clear after the decline in
oil prices.
In reviewing their structure plans with a view to developing growth strategies the governorates
will require guidance to help them understand and integrate the concepts underpinning the SDGs
and NUA. These concepts provide the main themes to aim for. Governorate strategies must
address the challenges within their jurisdiction taking into consideration the resource linkages
underscored by the World Bank and development corridors and nodes highlighted in the national
spatial strategy framework. Governorates will need to integrate strategies across sectors to align
proposed plans, programs, and projects as they affect their governorate.
The governorate structure plans include information on population characteristics, urban
patterns, economic activity, and environmental conditions, which will provide the data base for
the definition of strategic approaches towards achieving the sustainable development called for
in the SDGs and NUA. The strategic components of each governorate have to interlink with similar
components in adjacent governorates and cities to create efficient networks, along which key
nodes and projects will be located or linked with. These networks should interconnect to shape
a strategic urban growth framework. Spatially this will require highlighting development
corridors and growth nodes that can generate multi-sectoral development potential to promote
a badly needed diversification of Iraq’s economy.
52
Part II Infrastructure Systems and Resource Management
Iraq’s infrastructure planning seeks to simultaneously remedy backlogs created by damage to the
systems suffered during wars, sanctions, and ongoing conflicts and keep up with the growing
demand for services.
Figure 1 Topographic Map of Iraq and Surrounding Countries
Source: I2UD with base map from Google Earth
4.1 Climate Change
Iraq’s population is becoming increasingly urban, and both urban and rural populations will feel
the impacts of climate change. Throughout the Mashreq region, impacts include growing
fluctuations in weather patterns, disturbance of ecologic systems, water resources depletion,
land degradation, shrinking marshlands and coastal mangroves, desertification and episodes of
severe droughts, sandstorms and heavy rainfall and flash floods. Approximately one-third of
Iraq’s area is desert and one-third cultivable of which half is threatened by increasing aridity.
Climate change has increased the variability of precipitation, geographically and annually, is
affecting all water bodies. The increasing frequency of severe droughts, including the recent
53
droughts of 2007- 2009 and 2010-2011, has a widespread impact on the agricultural sector,
affecting crop production and rural livelihoods. Water scarcity is also increasingly affecting a
broad range of sectors such as industry, tourism and energy, increasing unemployment and
leading to higher rates of poverty and malnutrition17.
Figure 2 Natural Water Resources and Dams
Source: I2UD
Decline in the volume of water in the Tigris and Euphrates due to hydroelectric projects in Turkey
and illegal capture of water flow in the occupied areas of Syria and western Iraq have reduced
availability to one-third of normal flow, creating a shortage of 33 million m3 by 2015.18
Disruptions caused by wars, conflict and turmoil and the adverse climatic conditions have
generated waves of rural to urban migration, as people sought safety and opportunity to earn
living wages in the cities, which the falling productivity of agriculture was unable to provide. As
seen in the chart below, depleting water sources including irrigation and poor water quality have
been cited as a major factor preventing the return of IDPs in a number of governorates. These
17 IAU 2013 18 IBID
54
population movements have contributed to the expansion of informal settlements and an
increase in urban poverty which needs to be quantified and addressed.
4.2 Access to Potable Water Supply
Projected population growth entails a rising need for water which, given the current situation is
unavailable resulting in an increase in shortages. Furthermore, quality will deteriorate if the
distribution network is extended to cover newly urbanized areas without addressing the
problems of new filtration stations, water loss due to leaks and informal connections, and
pollution resulting from leaking pipes in the sewerage system and septic tanks leaching fields. As
evidenced in the chart below forecasting water requirements, over 8% of water is lost due to
evaporation and other losses.
Figure 3 Forecast for Water Requirements by Sector (billion m3)
Source: IAU 2013
The multiple indicator cluster survey prepared in 2006 jointly by UNICEF, COSIT and MOH
indicated that 20% of Iraq’s households’ lack access to safe potable water and 16% have to deal
with daily water related problems. In the rural areas, only 43% stated that they have access to
safe water. A sustained effort was expended to improve living conditions in the post conflict
period and, by 2012, UNICEF reported that 98% of the urban population and 77% of the rural
population had access to potable water, for a national average of 91%.19
19 IAU 2012.
55
In addition to shortage, the quality of the water supply is below international and national
standards. In 2012, IOM reported that pollution and high salinity adversely affected the rural
economy and fishing activities in Muthanna, Missan, Basra, and Wasit governorates. The
incidence of reported water borne diseases increased in Babil, Salah El Din, Diyala, Kirkuk, Erbil
and Sulaymaniyah prompting the Interagency Information and Analysis Unit to call for the
preparation of a national water management strategy.
Figure 4 Physiographic Characteristics
Source: I2UD based on Iraq: Country Profile [map], CIA, January 2003
In the rural areas, irrigation, which consumes the bulk of the water resources, requires the
introduction of modern management systems. In the urban centers, system losses, scarcity of
metering and low tariffs are a general feature in the MENA region where traditionally access to
water was a right exercised without charge. While system losses vary among cities, they reached
30% in Baghdad in 2011 a ratio at the high end of the range in urban areas of the Mashreq and
Maghreb where funds for the maintenance of systems are inadequate.20 Urban growth will put
additional pressure on already stressed systems. Under UN DESA projections 15 million new
20 IAU 2013
56
urban dwellers will be added to Iraqi cities implying additional demand for water of upwards of
3 billion l/c/d based on average water use in the Mashreq and Mahgreb regions.
It is unrealistic to assume that the scarcity of metering and low tariff are the two major
determinants of the excessive water consumption at 392 l/c/d, double the international standard
of 200 l/c/d21. In a system where tariffs cover between 2% and 5% of the operating and
maintenance costs, deferred maintenance and replacement are the unavoidable result. Water
losses need to be addressed through renewal, rehabilitation and upgrading the production and
distribution systems.
Improved water access would contribute to diffuse or at least alleviate water related tensions in
both urban and rural areas. According to Interagency reports, water flow in the Tigris is projected
to decline by over 25% and the Euphrates by more than 50% by 2025. This will create severe
challenges to development and urban resilience in Iraq.
Although dwarfed by the oil sector, Iraq’s non-oil commodity production can provide a lever for
the revitalization of agriculture, which still provides jobs for some 8% of the labor force and is
critical for food security.22 As is the case elsewhere in the world, agriculture consumes over 80%
of the available water resources, which in Iraq’s case are declining, affecting both agriculture
production and the generation of hydroelectric power. Access to markets is essential to enable
agriculture to achieve its production potential and substantially increase rural incomes while
enhancing food security. Sustainable production encourages the development of food processing
industries that require a reliable supply of produce and can enable private small and medium size
industries to flourish to generate exports.
4.3 Energy
Reliable energy is a prerequisite of economic development without which the SDGs and New
Urban Agenda (NUA) cannot be achieved. Oil fields and refineries provide fuel for electricity
generation. However, severe cumulative damage to the electricity infrastructure (generation
plants, transmission systems and networks) from 2001 to 2007 due to wars, sanctions and
occupation have reduced Iraq’s power generation to about half its needs.
21 IBID 22 COSIT 2014
57
Figure 5 Oil Pipelines and Refineries
Source: I2UD
Since 20% of the energy is generated by hydroelectric plants, the scarcity of water arising from
the combined effects of climate change and upstream illegal capture of waters from the
Euphrates and Tigris is a serious impediment to electricity provision. Regular blackouts in the
public grid system are compensated by communal and private generators, an expensive
alternative that poorer households cannot afford. In 2012 the availability of electricity to
residential areas ranged from about 18 hours to under four hours in the informal settlement
areas.23
23 IAU. 2012.
58
Figure 6 Electricity Network
Source: I2UD based on Niras 2010
The economy is adversely impacted by the unreliability of power supply. To cope with shortages,
cities resort to shedding and to cope with interruptions most businesses in the cities have
acquired generators. It is an expensive measure that burdens their performance. In particular,
lack of reliable electricity provision hampers the development of secondary cities, one of the
Ministry’s strategic objectives. In a globalized economy these cities and towns have to overcome
market disadvantages. They need links to major corridors, larger centers or growth nodes to
prosper. Infrastructure capable of providing them with good physical and virtual connectedness
is critical to their ability to achieve their development potential.
Not surprisingly, Baghdad and Basra received the largest investments to fund investments in
electricity provision, but all the governorates benefitted from projects, including the Kurdistan
region, which received separate capital funds from donors to improve electricity supply.
While the government has focused on covering recurrent expenditures which in principle include
both operation and maintenance, capital expenditure to enhance generation capacity was in
large part funded by donors and multilateral development organizations. Assuming that all the
59
funded projects since 2010 aiming to increase generation capacity have been completed by 2015
as planned by the Ministry of Electricity, Iraq’s power supply would be around 20,000
megawatts.24 The country would still be facing an absolute shortfall of 2000 megawatts. Most
funding received was for projects boosting generation. The transmission and distribution
networks still needs major rehabilitation, extension, and capital investment is needed to remedy
the damage suffered since 1991 and years of delayed maintenance.
According to the Ministry of Electricity, Iraq needs to increase generation capacity by about 1000
megawatts annually between 2015 and 2030 to provide the supply needed by industry, business,
and urban growth and to enable the expansion of technology, particularly ICT services. Increasing
electricity supply will also allow improvement of the water distribution system and contribute to
progress towards achieving the SDGs. To boost generation capacity as envisioned by the
government would require capital investment similar in scale to the more than $5 billion invested
in the projects since 2010.
4.4 Roads and Transport
The transportation network is the backbone of the country’s urban structure and its economic
development. Protracted wars and conflict have degraded Iraq’s once good road network and
disrupted key trade routes to the west towards Jordan and Syria. The current state of the road
network affects the country’s economic performance. Trucking of freight accounts for about 40%
of the traffic on highways.25 Their rehabilitation and improvement is critical to reducing the high
cost of trade within Iraq and between Iraq and its neighbors. Enhancing the competitiveness of
private enterprises and revitalizing the economy of secondary cities entails enabling improved
mobility and efficient access to markets, in particular, the market areas of the larger cities. Poor
road condition has also a high social cost. Iraq ranks the eighth in the world in road fatalities with
31.5 per 100,000 population.26
24 IAU 2012. 25 IBID 26 IBID
60
Figure 7 Road Density Pattern
Source: I2UD
61
Figure 8 Major Roads and Gateways
Source: I2UD
62
The World Bank has initiated a road rehabilitation project. It estimates that there about 32,000
km of roads of all levels in the south and central governorates and 15,000 km in Kurdistan region.
Responsibility for the road network is divided between the Ministry of Construction and Housing,
which has branch offices in the southern and central governorates in charge of construction and
maintenance and the Ministry of Transport which is in charge of the operation of the system
including transportation, ports and airports. The Kurdistan region has governorate branch offices
through its own Ministry of Construction and Housing to undertake these tasks.
From the viewpoint of the NUS, the World Bank transport corridor project is important in that it
will upgrade to expressway status the road between Basra and Baghdad as a limited access
highway with a view to have it operated in the future as toll roads. The project will also connect
and upgrade the road segments that link Baghdad to Dohuk through Baqubah, Khalis, Kirkuk,
Erbil, Mosul and Dohuk, and Zakhu on the Turkish border.
While this axis can be viewed as a single North/South corridor, the southern segment is referred
to as Highway 1 and the northern segment as Highway 2. Their connection to the western
transport corridors leading to Syria and Jordan through Fallujah and Ramadi is at this time
disrupted by conflict. Although not included in the World Bank project, a north/south corridor to
the west of Highway 2 has been proposed in the 2010 outline spatial strategy for Iraq. It is an
interesting proposal that is anchored by Baghdad and Mosul and should be looked at as a
potential development corridor from Baghdad to Dohuk through Samarra, Tikrit, Baiji and Mosul.
In the future this development corridor could extend south from Baghdad to Basra along Highway
1 as envisaged in the report. In this case larger cities off the highway should have access links and
interchanges/ramps to the highway, primarily Hillah, Diwaniya and Nasiriya to the east and
Kerbala, Najaf and Samawah to the west. Alternatively the corridor could be extended as a
western loop through the latter three cities.
63
Figure 9 Proposed Road Projects
Source: I2UD based on World Bank 2013
4.5 Infrastructure Improvement Projects
Donors, including UNDP, created multilateral funds managed by the World Bank to fund
reconstruction of infrastructure, improve services primarily in the health and education sectors
and support the development of private enterprise through IFC’s Iraq Business Assistance Facility
and access to the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). Since 2008 infrastructure
repair, rehabilitation and reconstruction works sought progressive boosting of production
capacity and targeted:
1. The water supply system including two treatment plants and segments of the distribution
networks and sewerage lines.
2. The energy supply system including two major hydroelectric power plants and two of the
Hartha Power Station units.
3. The telecommunication systems, which suffered severe damage during the wars, with a
special focus on restoring the functionality of the inter-banking system.
64
These projects have contributed to increasing the capacity of public systems to meet demand
but unmet needs remain a challenge that affects disproportionately the poor.
The social impact of disruption to service delivery systems imposes hardships on the poorer
segments of the population who cannot afford the alternatives that exist. Lack of access increases
social disparities and is one of the core indicators of deprivation indices. The Socio-economic
Surveys from 2007 to 2013 estimated that about 20% of the population lived below or just above
the poverty line of $2.20 expenditure level per capita per day27 while unemployment stood at
15.2% in 2011, underscoring the importance of economic diversification and job creation for
which adequate infrastructure is sorely needed.28
4.6 Deprivation and Poverty
The 2009 National Strategy for Poverty Reduction used information on household income and
expenditure patterns derived from the 2007 socio-economic survey to estimate the poverty line.
The poverty level combines expenditures on food to meet nutritional requirements of 2332
calories per capita daily and the cost of non-food basic requirements including the imputed
values of non-cash consumption of basic items. In 2009 this level stood at 76,896
Dinars/capita/month.
Figure 10 Poverty Gap by Governorate Percentages
Source: Iraq High Committee for Poverty Reduction Strategy. 2009.
27 Iraq High Committee for Poverty Reduction Strategy. 2009. & COSIT 2014 28 World Bank. 2016.
65
Accordingly, 22.9% the population was classified as poor comprising 16.1% urban and 39.3% rural
dwellers. However the poverty gap, a measure of the depth of poverty i.e. the difference
between poor household income and the poverty line, shown in the chart above is computed as
a percentage of the consumption of the total population if every person’s consumption stood at
the poverty level, was estimated to be 4.5%.29 This implies that large segments of the population
are living just above and just below the poverty line. While the income distribution as expressed
by the Lorenz curve changes slowly, the proportional distribution of poverty reflected in the
poverty rate and the poverty gap indicators is affected by the performance of the economy.
Changes at the governorate level are more pronounced and should be documented in
accordance with data availability. In 2009 GDP growth was positive and rose sharply between
2010 and 2013 with the growth rate climbing from 6.4% in 2010 to 13.9% in 2012. Falling back to
6.6% in 2013 and then into the negative range in 2014 at -2.1% due to the slump in the oil prices
and the recession of the past two years30. Those urban households clustering just above the
poverty line may have fallen below the line due to job loss, reduced earnings, underemployment
and other reduction in income. Policies advocated for poverty reduction through increased public
expenditures on basic services lagged due to the retrenchment of government expenditures.
A feature of particular importance to the national goal of balanced development are the marked
differences between governorates documented in the strategy for poverty reduction, which
shows a concentration of poverty in Muthana (49%), Babil (41%) and Salah El Din (40%). The
poverty gap is highest where rural poverty is highest. Current levels of poverty can be estimated
by using CPI to update the 2009 figure.
4.7 Estimating Deprivation Levels
The government looked at two criteria for fiscal allocations, namely population size and
deprivation. However, there is a lack of agreement on the indicators to be used for the
computation of a deprivation index and at this time is not used. This situation deserves to be
reexamined in order to avoid increasing disparities through the attribution of larger allocation to
the more populous governorates, which have the larger cities and the strongest economies.
29 Iraq High Committee for Poverty Reduction Strategy. 2009. 30 World Bank 2016.
66
Figure 11 Major Cities Proportional to Population Size
Source: Data from COSIT 2011
In the immediate aftermath of the war, a study of deprivation determined that about 31% of
households suffered from a lack of access to basic services31. Socio-economic surveys from 2007-
2010 showed that deprivation was increasing due to the unavailability of infrastructure services.
31 Iraq High Committee for Poverty Reduction Strategy. 2009.
67
Figure 12 Hospitals and Universities
Source: I2UD
The deprivation index is not clearly stated, but rather looks at the correlation of indicators of
human development with poverty, including:
• A measure of poverty.
• Health expressed by the expectancy of life at birth to age 40 and the proportion of
underweight children
• Education expressed by the adult illiteracy rate
• Basic services represented by access to potable water
Unemployment was not taken into consideration because the correlation with poverty was
assumed to be weak since the 2007 data showed that it stood at 11% in rural areas and 12% in
urban areas despite the fact that the rural poverty rate was double the urban poverty rate.32 The
omission of unemployment biases the index towards the rural areas where working the land is
undertaken by families or kin groups. Rural lifestyle rarely differentiates between occupation and
32 IBID
68
employment. In urban areas where income generation and living patterns depend primarily on
earning wages and salaries, unemployment is a component of deprivation. The growth of urban
population sustained by high fertility and rural to urban migration entail the need for a
reformulation of the index to better reflect urban poverty.
5.0 National Urban Strategy Framework Conceptual Approach
Assessment of the issues faced by Iraqi cities indicate the need for a flexible strategy framework
for urban development that takes into consideration the government’s objectives of balanced
growth , reduction of disparities among governorates and development of second tier cities.
Adopting a strategic approach entails four key tasks:
1. Understanding the factors that underpin the challenges that must be addressed to
achieve the desired objectives.
2. Focusing on the strategic planning and management components that can shape and
drive effective responses to urgent issues without losing sight of the longer term
vision.
3. Identifying development corridors and clusters of interlinked and eventually
networked cities to enable second tier cities to develop.
4. Assisting governorates in developing strategic spatial plans that recognize publicly
owned land as a key economic, social, and environmental asset when balancing
competing uses for land and budget allocations.
The framework emphasizes an integrated medium term horizon combining flexibility in planning
with building urban resilience of cities and governorates. In the global economy, public and
private investors face interconnected risks, which in Iraq are compounded by the complexity of
geopolitical issues and conflicts and the uncertainty about the outlook for economic recovery.
The framework therefore adopts a realistic approach to the ability to generate public revenues
and attract private investments to finance the infrastructure and industrial projects needed to
diversify the economy.
The framework recognizes the impacts of climate change and man-made disasters which have
led to socially marginalizing displacement of populations that burden host cities with IDPs that
cannot be absorbed by local economies already facing high rates of unemployment, particularly
among youths, Expanding informal settlements are adding to the land and infrastructure
problems affected governorates and cities have to address in their urban planning and
management activities.
69
While responding to these overriding concerns the framework shapes a development path
towards the longer term vision and the achievement of the SDGs and the NUA principles. It will
guide and support each governorate’s efforts to develop urban strategies that respond best to
the situation they face. Engaging all stakeholders in urban planning and management will make
local action more achievable despite tight budget allocations.
5.0.1 Urban Development Patterns
The historic pattern of settlement and trade routes along rivers and coastlines has shaped the
emergence of cities and accounts for the density and linearity of urbanization throughout the
Mashreq and Mahgreb countries. This has given rise to a hierarchy of urban areas which today
differ in the quality of their infrastructure and development potential. The historic urban pattern
has to adapt to the imperatives of a global economy. A new hierarchy of urban centers will take
shape.
Figure 13 Settlement Density Pattern
Source: I2UD
70
Figure 14 Heritage Sites
Source: I2UD based on UNESCO World Heritage
71
Figure 15 Pilgrimage Cities
Source: I2UD based on the Ahlul Bayt Digital Islamic Library Project
72
The core objective of the national urban strategy framework is to support the development of a
functional and resilient urban structure interconnecting these different centers. The NUS
framework differentiates among three categories of cities:
Key cities that have multi-sectoral development can be equipped with the infrastructure and the
high technology poles needed to compete in the global economy. Dynamic land and housing
markets and cultural diversity are a hallmark of these cities that anchor the country’s major
development corridors, gateways and intermodal transport nodes.
Figure 16 Key Cities
Source: I2UD
73
First tier cities located along the development corridors have specific growth potential that
should be enhanced by public investments targeted at sectors where each city has a comparative
economic advantage. Sectors to be considered include industry, trade, higher education,
technology, tourism, and cultural and natural heritage. Many first tier cities can become growth
nodes and expand rapidly. Planning for their expansion is critical to avoid being overwhelmed by
a belt of informally urbanized areas.
Figure 17 First Tier Cities
Source: I2UD
74
Second tier cities are facing size disadvantages in a global economy. Their historic role as market
towns has been eroded by modern infrastructure and technology. They are unable to offer the
economic and cultural diversity needed to compete in the Mashreq region. However they can
develop nationally as interconnected clusters, particularly when they are well linked to larger
growth nodes. This enables them to individually benefit from the economic spillover and induced
effects within the urban impact area of the nodal anchors according to their locational
advantages. As clusters their combined strength will offer economies of agglomeration and a
diversity of production and business services activities.
Figure 18 Second Tier Cities
Source: I2UD
75
Figure 19 Key, First, and Second Tier Cities
Source: I2UD
The UN-DESA computations of the national annual average rate of growth of cities with
population above 300,000 can be considered as a benchmark. The larger cities growth rates will
be lower than the national average because of the size of their base population, which will
require a major increment to reach rates of growth similar to those achieved by dynamic smaller
cities. The map below shows cities experiencing growth rates above the national average. Cities
in occupied areas or in close proximity to the conflict zones, as well as the recently liberated cities
of Ramadi and Fallujah have been excluded because of the fluctuations in their populations and
the lack of available data on population movements. Based on the available UN-DESA data, the
rapidly growing cities include the two holy cities of Kerbela and Najaf; Erbil and Sulaymaniyah in
the Kurdistan region; Kirkuk, Hillah, and Ba’qubah.
76
Figure 20 Fastest Growing Cities
Source: Data from United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World
Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision.
77
5.1 Development Corridors
Figure 21 Development Corridors
Source: I2UD
78
5.2 Development Clusters
The three large metropolitan areas are anchors that connect the cities within their sphere of
influence and can generate functional spillover effects in these cities according to accessibility,
infrastructure capacity, and land availability. There have been very few discussions of these
dispersal patterns, most notably in France and none in Iraq, where oil has been the mainstay of
the economy and overshadowed the other sectors and the importance of diversification in order
to spur growth in all governorates and the first and second tier cities.
First and second tier cities can only grow through three major avenues:
1. Capturing spillover activity from the larger cities in their proximity;
2. Attracting businesses that can achieve production or service connections to economic
activities in the closest large cities by offering lower operational cost due to their
locational advantages. Land, infrastructure, construction, and transport are critical
components of fixed costs particularly in Mashreq countries where the price of urban land
is very high. Fiber optics and communications including mobile digital technologies are
acquiring increasing importance for all categories of urban activities. Technology
infrastructure should be viewed as a necessary support system in any economic
diversification program. Universities and associated research centers are an important
asset in fostering the development of knowledge based industries.
3. Develop a specialization by capitalizing on geographic features, cultural heritage (tangible
and intangible) or particular assets or products that can be enhanced to give the city a
unique character.
The current urban patterns in Iraq reflect its physiographic and historic legacy. As shown in the
city and road maps. The two rivers and their alluvial plain have produced the structural frame
along which urban centers emerged and grew. While the Euphrates does not receive any major
tributaries as it crosses Iraq the Tigris receives six tributaries all located to the east.
This rich water system accounts for the density observed in the distribution of settlements and
roads. In the eastern part of the country, the discovery of oil fields and the production of
petroleum and gas added a layer of growth nodes shaped by the location of fields, refineries and
pipeline crossings to neighboring countries. It also contributed to the development of the oil
terminals in the port of Basrah.
79
To foster the growth potential of first and second tier cities that may not be directly connected
to key development corridors, the cities need to be clustered to facilitate links to larger centers,
as well as, benefit from economies of agglomeration.
Figure 22 Key Development Clusters
Source: I2UD
5.2.1 Kurdistan Region Clusters
Since the end of the 2003 The Kurdistan Region (Dohuk, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah) have benefitted
from relative security. The ongoing conflict in Syria and adjacent governorates has strengthened
transportation connections between Kurdish cities, particularly between Dohuk and Erbil, which
previously had remained underdeveloped. Traffic that followed the highway through Mosul,
Highway 2, has now been diverted to Highway 3 and Amedi Seladize road.
In the past few years, the region has experienced a growing influx of IDPs and Syrian refugees,
which has placed a strain on cities budget and service delivery. A significant portion of the IDPs
are from adjacent governorates, particularly Ninevah. Dohuk has been a major receiving area for
ethnic Kurd and Yazidi refugees due to its close proximity and to the Syrian and Turkish border.
International humanitarian organizations addressing the refugee crisis are active in Dohuk and
Zakho. Beyond the immediate focus on providing emergency support, there needs to be a long
term shift toward addressing the needs of the significant portion of IDPs and refugees may not
80
return to their hometowns, preferring to pursue economic opportunities in Erbil and
Sulaymaniyah. They have made a significant contribution to the skilled workforce and have
invested in commercial and service enterprises.
Despite the relative security within the KRG, the economy has been affected by the region’s
proximity to areas of conflict. Prior to the recent conflict, the region had a burgeoning tourism
industry attracted by its archeological and heritage sites and natural areas. Erbil with its historic
citadel, a UNESCO world heritage site, was designated the “Arab Tourism Capital” in 2014.33
Despite the region’s semiautonomous nature, its cities are impacted by the economic and
political situation in the nation and adjacent countries, as well as global trends. The drop in oil
prices and the economic downturn it created have brought to a halt the inflow of private capital
into real estate projects, many of which were speculative character. This downturn has affected
the entire region, although Sulaymaniyah to a lesser extent.
If unemployment continues to rise, some IDPs may consider moving to other governorates.
However, at this time concern over security and socio/cultural issues are constraining mobility.
Erbil, Sulaymaniyah and Dohuk will continue to grow. These larger cities, as well as the second
tier towns need to refocus their attention on job creation, economic diversification, planned
urban expansion areas with affordable housing and adequate urban services. To cope with the
current crisis and enhance their development potential, 2nd tier cities in the clusters must not
only link to the two major centers, but also initiate major improvements in administrative and
financial management capacity.
• Cluster 1 consists of the cities of Zakho, Sumel, and Dohuk in the Dohuk governorate along
Highway 2. Due to its strategic location Zakho is a key border crossing with Turkey and
initial destination for Syrians entering the region. Dohuk, the capital of the governorate,
is a key destination for IDPs and Syrian refugees, particularly given its close proximity to
Mosul.
• Cluster 2 consists of the cities of Shaqlawa, Soran, and Choman in the Erbil governorate
along Highway 3, a northern connection from Erbil across mountain terrain to the Iranian
border. Shaqlawa lies at the base of Safeen Mountain, making it a destination for tourists.
• Cluster 3 connects Erbil to Sulaymaniyah along Highway 18 and includes the cities of Erbil,
Koisnijaq, Dahuq, Dokan, and Shbazher. The corridor and particularly Dokan is adjacent
to Lake Dukan, a major reservoir supplied by the Dukan Dam on the Little Zab River.
33 Bradshaw 2016
81
• Cluster 4, which includes Chamchamal, Sulaymaniyah, Penjwin, connects Kirkuk to
Sulaymaniyah and to the Iran border crossing at Penjwin in the Sulaymaniyah governorate
on Sulaymaniyah-Kirkuk Road and Highway 46.
Figure 23 Kurdistan Region Clusters
Source: I2UD
5.2.2 Development Clusters Integrating Water Resource Management
As they enter Iraq the flow of the Euphrates is larger than that of the Tigris. Both rivers exhibit
large annual fluctuations, which complicates water allocation among the major non-agricultural
sectors and can cause periodic floods aggravated by the flat topography34. Reservoirs and dams
of which the Samarra-Tharthar is the largest system were built to store water and protect
Baghdad and other cities from the Tigris spring floods, particularly the vulnerable cities at the
confluence of the river and its tributaries.
Surface water is complemented by groundwater aquifers in the alluvial plains of the two rivers,
the Zagros Mountains and the Kurdistan mountain area. The 2008 ESCWA survey estimated that
34 FAO 2009
82
withdrawals were covered by sufficient replenishment of renewable water sources35. In the
following years, the imbalance grew and in 2013 the U.N. Inter-Agency Information and Analysis
Unit (IAU) projected an absolute shortage emerging by 2015. Coping with the shortage is not
easy.
The two Gulf Wars damaged both irrigation and transportation. Despite speedy repairs in the
1990’s, lack of machinery during the sanctions decade led to progressive deterioration of the
infrastructure due to inability to maintain the systems. Agriculture suffered from a rise in salinity
and water logging of lands in the central and southern governorates. Furthermore the 1999-2001
droughts severely affected the rain dependent northern governorates. The water shortage was
felt throughout the country with crop outputs falling sharply. Lack of fodder and medicines
devastated livestock herds. Rural migration to the cities accelerated and food prices in urban
areas rose. The bad condition of the road network impeded distribution of food stuffs to areas
experiencing shortages resulting in widespread malnutrition among the poor, in particular
children.Both irrigation and drainage systems require major efforts at rehabilitation and
reconstruction to enable the introduction of water saving practices and improved technologies
needed to uplift rural incomes and improve food security.
The main drainage canal referred to as the “3rd river”, running from Mahmudia south of Baghdad
to Kurmah, north of Basrah, carries agricultural drainage from the lands between the two rivers
. Smaller canals are part of irrigation and water logging prevention projects. Of the 11 major
wastewater treatment plants, three are in Baghdad including the two largest plants at Rushumia
and Karkh. The rest are located in the vicinity of larger cities. Treated wastewater is discharged
in the rivers along which the cities front. Most of the plants were damaged in the 2003 war.
Despite a major rehabilitation effort, the system is still inadequate at collection and treatment,
particularly in view of the uncontrolled expansion of underserviced urbanization and informal
settlements.
Nonagricultural use of water is about 14.5% by the industrial sector and 6.5% by municipalities36.
Adequate water supply and sanitation are key components of the Sustainable Development Goal
“SDG” 11 objective five and the UN-Habitat New Urban Agenda “NUA”. They are critical to the
economic development and competitiveness of cities of all tiers, as well as, growth nodes and
gateways.
Fresh surface and groundwater still generate 97.7% of water used.37 Despite international
protocols bilateral agreements with Syria and Turkey, Iraq’s renewable water resources in the
Tigris-Euphrates river basins have been adversely affected by Turkey’s construction of dams,
35 IBID 36 FAO 2009 37 IBID
83
which is creating water shortages of varying severity in both Syria and Iraq and affecting their
agriculture and hydroelectric power generation capacity.
Water shortages are unevenly distributed among governorates. The eastern governorates
benefit from tributaries of the Tigris in addition to most aquifers and natural springs. Water
management is a complex task in that it requires vertical and horizontal collaboration and
coordination at all stages of planning and implementation. The Ministry of Water Resources with
the SOEs under its umbrella is the entity responsible for managing and operating the water
resources and their related systems including the 25 major dams, the irrigation pumping stations
and the hydroelectric power generating plants. At the federal level, it has to coordinate with the
Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of the Environment, the Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of
Planning, and the Ministry of Municipalities and Public Works. All these ministries have work
closely with the governorates. Furthermore water management tasks and projects will often
require collaboration among adjacent governorates. As noted by FAO, universities can contribute
scientific knowledge and the Iraq Foundation focuses on the restoration of Marshlands helps in
this difficult task, which requires earmarked water allocations.
• Cluster 1 includes the cities of Dokan, Pshdar, Rania that are adjacent to Lake Dokan,
which is supplied by the Dokan Dam on the Little Zab. The dam and reservoir are a major
source of irrigation and hydroelectric power in the Sulaymaniyah governorate.
• Cluster 2 consists of the cities of Haditha and Ana on the Euphrates River in Anbar
Governorate. The Haditha Dam is the second largest dam in Iraq and is a major source of
hydroelectricity and water for irrigation.
• Cluster 3 includes Ramadi and Fallujah, two cities with barrages along the Euphrates
River, as well as the adjacent city of Heet.
• Cluster 4 includes the cities of Ba’Quba, Al-Khalis, Al – Muqdadiya, and Khanaqin along
the Diyala River, a major tributary of the Tigris River. The Hemrim Dam and Diyala Weir
are utilized for flood control, irrigation and hydroelectric power generation.
• Cluster 5 consists of several cities just north of Baghdad along the Tigris River including
Samarra, Balad, Tarmia, Taji, and Hossiena. The Samarra Barrage diverts water to Lake
Tharthar for storage and controls flooding in the greater Baghdad area.
• Cluster 6 includes the cities of Al-Musayab, Al Mahawil, and Hillah along the Euphrates
and the adjacent alluvial plains. The Hindiya Barrage, located just south of Al-Musayab
provides a major source of water for the Hillah and irrigation for the adjacent region.
84
• Cluster 7 includes cities along Shatf Al Arab, at the confluence of the Euphrates and the
Tigris including Al-Hartha, Basrah, Al-Zubayr, and Al-Khaseeb. Water sources in this area
are heavily impacted by increasing salinity and decreasing fresh water flow from
upstream dams.
Figure 24 Development Clusters Integrating Water Resource Management
Source: I2UD
5.2.3 Development Clusters Integrating Agriculture
Protecting the productive agricultural land a repairing the damaged irrigation systems are critical
to food security and reduction of rural poverty. Enhancing agricultural productivity is key to
raising rural incomes and stemming the push factor migration to the cities. South of Baghdad lays
the most fertile land between the two rivers, renowned for its palm tree, date production, rice
fields, sunflowers, maize and vegetables. Four clusters of cities stretching along the rivers are
identified as prime areas for agriculture requiring protection of arable land. Two clusters along
the Tigris in Thi Qar and Wasit and another two along the Euphrates in Qadissiya and Babylon. As
shown in the employment structure agriculture provides between 18% and 22% of the jobs in
these governorates, although many workers can only work a limited number of hours due to the
85
damage suffered by the sector. There is an urgent need to repair and modernize irrigation,
drainage, and roads. The cities within these clusters, which are listed below, are centers of
commerce and can provide employment opportunities through marketing of agricultural
products and developing agricultural processing industries.
• Cluster 1 consists of cities of along the Tigris River in Wassit governorate including
Assuwaira, Numaniyah, and Kut. Agriculture provides 18.8% of employment in Wassit.
Assuwaira is noted for its fruit groves and palm orchards in surrounding areas. Kut, which
is located at a strategic bend in the Tigris, is a critical node in the irrigation system. The
surrounding areas are known for the cultivation of cereal grains.
• Cluster 2 includes Al-Mahawil and Hillah in Babylon and Hashimiya, Diwaniya, and Al-
Shamiya in Qadissiya governorate in the irrigated alluvial plains of the Euphrates River.
Agriculture provides 19.8% of employment in Babylon and 22.6% in Qadissiya. The areas
surrounding these cities are notable for rice, dates, and wheat crops.
• Cluster 3 consists of cities along the Al-Gharraf Canal or the Hai River in Wassit and Thi
Qar governorates. The ancient canal, with its water level controlled by the Kut Barrage,
connects the Tigris River and the Euphrates near Nassiriyah. Cities within this cluster
include Al-Hai, Al-Rifai, Al-Shatr, and Nassiriyah. While agriculture only provides 8.2% of
employment throughout Thi Qar, the Northern section, is predominately agricultural, and
shares similarities to the adjacent Wassit and Qadissiya governorates.
86
Figure 25 Development Clusters Integrating Agriculture
Source: I2UD
5.2.4 Oil Based Development Clusters
The five governorates encompassing oil fields are strategic locations that produce 41.5% of the
country’s income38.The petroleum sector through all its stages (extraction, refining, and
transport) and associated petrochemicals production is the key driver of the economy and its mid
term growth prospects until a serious effort at building up other sectors is made. The oil sector
provides only a limited number of jobs, but dominates the economy of the cities in these clusters.
Increasing oil production takes precedence over issues of pollution and environmental
degradation. Furthermore security issues arising from the proximity to the conflict in Ninevah
hamper planned urban expansion while fueling IDP flows who settle informally in the towns
further to the east.
Kirkuk is the dominant center in the area. Baiji has suffered from destruction and extensive
damage to the refinery and the town in 201 when it was overrun before being liberated by the
government in 2015. It will require a massive reconstruction and rehabilitation program
extending over several years. The occupation of Mosul and the conflict in adjoining areas deprives
38 COSIT 2014
87
governorates from the their Highway 1 link to Syria and Jordan and has reoriented development
along a north/south orientation towards gateway to Turkey through Highway 2 and Highway 1
south to Baghdad and Basrah.
Despite the dominance of oil, the cities can foster thriving commercial and services sectors if they
can create and maintain a living environment with an acceptable urban quality. Under an
economic diversification program, they have an inherit advantage in developing manufacturing
activities.
• Cluster 1 consists of the cities of Kirkuk, Al-Hawiga, and Baiji along Highway 19 in the
Kirkuk and Salah Al-Deen governorates. Kirkuk, located on one of Iraq’s highest producing
oil fields, is the center of oil production in northern Iraq. Given its strategic location on
the Highway 1 and connection to the rail network, Baiji is a major industrial center focused
on oil refinery.
• Cluster 2 includes the cities of Tikrit, Samara, Balad, Tarmia, and Taji in Salah Al-Deen and
Baghdad governorates. This corridor along Highway 1 connects several oil fields to the
refineries in the Greater Baghdad area.
• Cluster 3 consists of the cities of Amara and Qal’at Saleh, which are located near the
Halfaya oil field and several refineries in Missan.
• Cluster 4 includes the cities of Basrah and Al Zubayr in the Basrah governorate, which has
some of the largest oil fields and a substantial number of the refineries in Iraq. Basrah’s
economy is dominated by the oil and petrochemical industry. The majority of oil exports
leave through the city’s port on the Persian Gulf.
88
Figure 26 Oil Based Development Clusters
Source: I2UD
5.2.4 Pilgrimage Cities Cluster
Pilgrimage cities share particularities. Their economic base depends on the uninterrupted flow of
pilgrims. Their major objective is to enhance their ability to accommodate growing numbers of
visitors to the shrines. The cities of Kerbela and Najaf, both of which encompass holy sites, anchor
the cluster in this area. Both cities are rapidly growing, with annual growth rates above the
national average. Between 2010 and 2015 Najaf grew at a rate of approximately 3.6% and Kerbela
at a slightly lower rate of 3.1%39. A significant concern is the capacity of the urban infrastructure
to carry the peaks that characterize the nature of pilgrimages. Kerbela, in particular, is the
destination for the annual Arbaeen pilgrimage, which draws millions of people. The major points
of entry of pilgrimages from the Iran and countries further east are through Basrah and the
international airports in Baghdad and Najaf. It is anticipated that the Najaf airport will be
expanded due to enduring security issues in the vicinity of Baghdad. The governorates’ economy
reflects the special character of their capital cities. Commerce including hospitality and food
services, building and construction, public administration and defense, and transport are
39 UN-DESA 2015
89
dominant sectors providing the bulk of employment. Their international role highlight’s Iraq’s as
a religious node.
Figure 27 Pilgrimage Cities Cluster
Source: I2UD
90
Figure 28 Development Clusters
Source: I2UD
91
Figure 29 National Urban Strategy Outline
Source: I2UD
5.3 Looking to 2030
The NUS framework consists of several components which will all be affected to different degrees
by the evolution of the conflict. This dynamic situation should be recognized. It underpins the
flexibility that had to be built in the recommended strategic framework, particularly in its spatial
dimensions. Between 2016 and 2030 aspects of the context are bound to change. The economic,
social, and spatial development options in the western governments should be reviewed after
the liberation of Mosul and the end of the conflict in Ninevah.
Development corridors are determined to a large extent by the topographic features of the
country, its settlement pattern, its mineral resources, the trade routes, and border crossings that
informed the alignment of highways and major roads. The larger cities accounting for about 26%
of the population anchor these corridors and encompass the key gateways40. They also articulate
other spatial components including the location of important industrial and commercial
activities, the best support infrastructure and the high tech and knowledge sectors.
The clustering of 1st and 2nd tier cities was derived from the common feature challenges and
development prospects they share. It seeks to enhance their economic productivity and
competitiveness in those sectors where their particular context can give them advantages. The
clusters also highlight the role and responsibilities that these cities carry in safeguarding
important national resources especially for the protection of water sources and fertile
agricultural land. In order to enhance their development potential, a special effort should be
made to equip them with appropriate infrastructure to undertake the functions they need to
perform and attract investments and expand their access to the technology and knowledge
sectors.
The next task will involve working with selected governorates on their development strategy.
This undertaking involves a structured participatory approach in coordination with UNDP, LAPDII
coordinator and committees in each governorate. Local strategies are informed by the national
framework and provide critical feedback information to ensure smooth coordination between
the different levels of governance.
Building the resilience of second tier cities is part of improving Iraq’s performance beyond
increasing the oil driven GDP towards sustainable development as defined by the SDG’s
adopted by the UN General Assembly on September 25th 2015 and the UN-Habitat New Urban
Agenda draft published on July 18th 2016.
40 UN-DESA 2014
93
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95
Statistical Annex
Summary of GDP and Employment at the Governorate Level
GDP Employment
Governorate million I.D. Percent Workers Percent
DIYALA 7,522,464 2.76% 337,875 4.16%
MUTHANNA
3,877,971 1.42%
141,411
1.74%
BASRAH
38,958,904 14.29%
542,930
6.69%
NINEVEH
16,856,800 6.18%
707,358
8.71%
KIRKUK
20,517,381 7.53%
428,300
5.28%
ANBAR
13,924,386 5.11%
324,664
4.00%
BAGHDAD
52,994,480 19.44%
1,727,032
21.28%
BABYLON
15,340,265 5.63%
436,117
5.37%
KERBELA
8,943,477 3.28%
292,241
3.60%
WASIT
8,883,967 3.26%
308,088
3.80%
SALAH AL DEEN
9,907,017 3.63%
312,313
3.85%
NAJAF
6,758,548 2.48%
329,604
4.06%
QADISIYA
6,728,587 2.47%
284,622
3.51%
THI-QAR
15,170,268 5.57%
370,932
4.57%
MISAN
11,694,670 4.29%
215,321
2.65%
DAHUK
7,730,302 2.84%
287,338
3.54%
ERBIL
12,513,914 4.59%
493,208
6.08%
SULAYMANIYAH
14,272,959 5.24%
577,685
7.12%
TOTAL 272,596,361 100.00% 8,117,039 100.00%
96
GDP and Employment by Governorate, Sector for:
1. DIYALA
2. MUTHANNA
3. BASRAH
4. NINEVEH
5. KIRKUK
6. ANBAR
7. BAGHDAD
8. BABYLON
9. KERBELA
10. WASIT
11. SALAH AL DEEN
12. NAJAF
13. QADISIYA
14. THI-QAR
15. MISAN
16. DAHUK
17. ERBIL
18. SULAYMANIYAH
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105