Lake of the Woods Total Maximum Daily Load
Minnesota Pollution Control Agency Lake of the Woods Soil and Water Conservation
District RESPEC
Agenda 9:30 Welcome, Introductions
9:40 Why is this happening, what’s the goal, why get involved?
10:00 Overview of the TMDL Project
10:30 Project partners: roles / timelines
10:50 How can you get involved?
11:10 Collaboration: local, regional and int’l levels
11:20 Q&A, feedback, and next steps
11:30 Adjourn
Goals of the Meeting 1. Inform natural resource agency staff
about the project and process
2. Request voluntary participation
Lake of the Woods Nutrient Total Maximum Daily Load
(TMDL) Study
Cary Hernandez Minnesota Pollution Control Agency
Clean Water Act
• Federal Clean Water Act ’72 • Framework to protect and restore water quality
– Set Standards – Designate beneficial uses – Assess waters – Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study for impaired
waters – Restoration strategies
6
What is a TMDL?
• Definition • Process • Analysis
Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)
• Total Maximum Daily Load is the extent to
which a body of water is able to assimilate or tolerate a pollutant and still maintain its water quality standards.
The TMDL Process
Lake of the Woods – Aug. 2006
In 2008, Lake of the Woods was placed on the federal 303 (d) list as impaired for aquatic recreation due to excess nutrients.
Excess Nutrients
• Data must show exceedances of two of the following three standards
1. Total Phosphorus (causal factor) 2. Chlorophyll- a (response variable) 3. Secchi disk (response variable)
Water Quality Standards
• Total Phosphorus – less than 30 µg/L • Chlorophyll-a - less than 9 µg/L • Secchi disk - not less than 2.0 meters
The TMDL Process
TMDL Analysis
• A TMDL is the sum of the loads from individual point sources, nonpoint sources and natural background, with an additional loading allowance for a margin of safety.
Pre-TMDL Research Began in 2009
• USGS - Water Quality and Quantity Sampling and Monitoring (complete)
• SCSU – BATHTUB/FLUX Modeling (lake) • RESPEC – HSPF Modeling (watersheds) • NRRI - Paleolimnology Assessment (complete) • SMM - Historical Nutrient Budget Study • UofM - Land Use Mapping and Analysis (complete) • UW-Stout Internal Phosphorus Loading Sources
(complete) • UW-Stout Sediment Phosphorus Dynamics (complete)
USGS Sampling Sites
• LOW is divided into 5 segments for the phosphorus model •Segments based on differences in water quality, shape, and structure of the lake’s basins. •4 Mile Bay •Big Traverse + Buffalo Bays •Muskeg Bay •Sabaskong + NE Big Trav. •Little Traverse + NWA (Northwest Angle)
Phosphorus loads to LoW are decreasing
Rainy River in the 1950’s, mats of sawdust and paper mill effluent were abundant (MDH photo)
Hargan, Paterson, Dillon 2011 J. Great Lakes Res 37.
Diatom-inferred phosphorus (µg/L)
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1850
1900
1950
2000
DI−TP (µg/L)
Big Traverse 3Big Traverse 4MuskegSabaskongLittle TraverseBig NarrowsBuffalo
Big Narrows
Muskeg
Sabaskong
Little Traverse
Big Traverse 3
Big Traverse 4Buffalo
Courtesy of E. Rieve, NRRI, UMD
- 35
- 30
- 25
- 20
- 15
- 10
- 5
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Dep
th b
elow
sed
imen
t int
erfa
ce (c
m)
P fraction (mg/g)
Total P
Biologically-labile P (Subject to recycling)
Excess P (Gross P deposition > P burial)
P has accumulated in excess of burial, resulting in a modest surface concentration peak that can contribute to internal P loading (both Total and Ortho P )
Courtesy of Dr. William James, U W Stout
Pre-TMDL Study Results
• 517 metric tons of P per year outflow
• 629 metric tons of P per year retained
The Lake does occasionally stratify; this is a “big deal”
A ~ 9 mph sustained wind is required to fully mix the stratified water column (SMM data, M. Edlund)
Next Steps
• MPCA, in partnership with LoW SWCD and RESPEC, is conducting a TMDL study of the Lake of the Woods’ excess nutrient loading.
• Goals of the TMDL Study:
(1) identify water quality goals for the Minnesota portions of the LOW/Rainy River Watershed;
(2) recommend nutrient allocations to achieve TMDLs; and (3) provide opportunities for stakeholders to engage in the process of watershed-management planning to adopt protection and restoration practices.
• The TMDL study will also result in a Restoration Strategy.
Questions/Discussion
Project Goals
Technical: • Identify water quality standards and goals for the
Minnesota portion of the LOTW/Rainy River watershed
• Recommend nutrient allocations to achieve total maximum daily loads where waters do not meet water quality standards
• Provide opportunities for stakeholders and local communities to engage in planning
Kitchen table; Coffee shop: • Work together to diagnose health issues, determine
reasonable and achievable goals, develop plan to meet goals, implement plan.
Steps at a Glance
1. Refine existing watershed and in-lake models • Extend HSPF watershed model through 2014 • Update BATHTUB lake model through 2014
2. Develop individual components of the TMDL study • Sources, capacity, reasonable load reductions
and reduction strategies, seasonal variation, monitoring plan, future growth
3. Draft the report; Prepare for official public noticing
4. Develop the restoration strategy
Objective 1: Refine existing in-lake and watershed models
• HSPF Watershed Model • Entire Rainy Basin • 1996-2009 calibrated model • Update through 2014 • Determines watershed loading • Provides inputs to BATHTUB model
• BATHTUB Lake Model
• 2012 model • Update through 2014 • Diagnoses condition of lake • Evaluate management options by
predicting lake response
Vetted for over 40 Years Core watershed in EPA BASINS and USACE
Watershed Modeling System (WMS) Continuous simulation model Represents complex multi-land use watersheds Land surface and subsurface hydrology and quality
processes Simulates hydraulics and water-quality processes Multiple pollutants
• Temperature, Sediment, Nutrients, Algal Species, Dissolved Oxygen, Chloride, Metals, etc.
Hydrologic Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF)
HSPF Overview
Meteorological data applied to subwatersheds in meteorological zones
Cropland Wetlands Urban Forest Pasture
Overland & Subsurface
Flows & Loads
Parameterization based on land class categories in each
meteorological zone
• Precipitation • Air Temperature • Evaporation • Solar Radiation • Cloud Cover • Wind • Dew Point
Model Land Classes
Model Parameterization:
Infiltration Cover Shade
Upper/lower zone storage Groundwater recession
Ice parameters Interception storage
Interflow Manning’s n Vegetation
Accumulation Rates Erodibility
Etc.
BMP Module Implementation Plan
Development Climate Assessment Tool
2009 HSPF Model Development: Overview
• 26,000 square miles
• ~ 615 HUC 12s
• >30,000 Waterbodies
• 9 Linked HSPF models
2009 Model Development: Data
• Meteorological • Precipitation (63 sites) • Air Temperature (33 sites) • Evapotranspiration (13 sites) • Cloud Cover (13 sites) • Dew Point (16 sites) • Solar Radiation (13 sites) • Wind Speed (13 sites)
• Point Sources • 45 sites
• Atmospheric Deposition • Nitrogen and Phosphorus
• Cross Sections • 79 locations
• Bathymetry • 203 lakes
• Discharge • 24 stations
• Water Quality • 344 sties spanning 134
reaches/lakes
2009 Model Development : Segmentation
• Subwatersheds • MN DNR Level 7
watersheds • Canada – ArcHydro • 1022 Total
• Additional breaks • TMDL endpoints • Gaging stations • Model Lakes
• Drainage Network • 841 Reaches • 290 Lakes
• Lake Discharge • Rainy Lake outlet • Lac la Croix outlet • Nett Lake outlet • Farm Lake outlet • Birch Lake outlet • Laseine Lake outlet • Kabetogama Lake
outlet
2009 HSPF Model: Calibration
Modeling Period • 1995 – 2009 • Simulated 1995 to adjust to existing conditions
Calibration strategy • Iterative process • Consistency in Parameters
Constituents • Flow • Temperature • Sediment • Nutrients • Dissolved Oxygen • Phytoplankton and Benthic Algae
2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loading • ~ 75 % of Total Phosphorus was in the organic form • Results are comparable to estimates provided by
Hargan et. al.
2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loadings from Landuse
2009 HSPF Model: Phosphorus Loadings - Subwatersheds
RESPEC HSPF QAQC Process
BATHTUB Model • Initial Development in the early 1980s by William W.
Walker, PhD.
• Based on U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir data.
• Combines mass-balance with empirical relations to diagnose and predict trophic responses.
• The population of reservoirs used for development is key to understanding/interpreting the BATHTUB relations.
Completely Mixed, Steady State Mass Balance (Outputs = Inputs – Storage)
D. Soballe, US COE
BATHTUB Lake Modeling System
• Steady state water quality model • Designed to relate eutrophication symptoms to
external nutrient loadings, hydrology, and lake morphometry
• Predicts lake responses to nutrient loadings on a yearly basis or over the growing season
• Partitions dissolved versus particulate nutrients in watershed loading
• Seasonal variation in loadings and morphometry
• Can be used to predict the effects of future changes in external nutrient loading
• Diagnose current condition – Evaluate existing information – information gaps. – Rapid/rough assessment. – Establish Baseline. – Identify problem sources.
– Evaluate potential for correction/management. • Lay groundwork for more sophisticated modeling
– Design for specific management actions
• For MPCA, BATHTUB and has proven to be an effective tool; routinely used for TMDLs
• Focus on TP, driver of productivity & impaired water listings • It models seasonal average conditions, but can predict algae bloom
frequencies / seasonal maximums
Why Use BATHTUB?
D. Soballe, US COE
• 5 segments • 4 Mile Bay • Big Traverse + Buffalo • Muskeg Bay • Sabaskong + NE Big
Trav. • Little Traverse + NWA
• Little Traverse outlets are
logical management end-point for TMDL study
• Model area = 72% of LOW’s surface area and 85% of the drainage basin
2012 BATHTUB Model
2012 BATHTUB Model • BATHTUB predicts an annual phosphorus load of
~ 1150 metric tons in modeled area • Internal loading and the Rainy River remain
significant sources of TP
Objective 2: Develop individual TMDL Components
• HSPF Watershed Model • Entire Rainy Basin • 1996-2009 calibrated model • Update through 2014 • Determines watershed loading • Provides inputs to BATHTUB model
• BATHTUB Lake Model
• 2012 model • Update through 2014 • Diagnoses condition of lake • Evaluate management options by
predicting lake response
Objective 2: Develop individual TMDL components
• Reasonable Assurance
• Future growth or sources
• Seasonal Variation
• Monitoring Plan
Objective 3: Develop draft TMDL report • Section1 – Project Overview • Section 2 – Applicable Water Quality Standards • Section 3 – Watershed and Waterbody
Characterization • Section 4 – TMDL Development • Section 5 – Reasonable Assurance • Section 6 – Monitoring Plan • Section 7 – Implementation Strategy Summary • Section 8 – Public Participation Overview • Section 9 – Literature Cited
Objective 4: Develop the watershed restoration and protection strategy • Timeline overlaps with TMDL study
and draft document development • Stakeholder involvement is key to
selecting strategies • Use a variety of tools to evaluate
strategies for cost/benefit and long-term impact • Terrain analysis • Modeling • HSPF SAM
• Develop reasonable and measurable implementation plan that is supported and adopted
PROJECT PARTNERS, ROLES, TIMELINE
Project Team Organizational Chart
RESPEC Team
Emily Javens Restoration, BMPs
– Former Soil and Water Conservation District employee – Targeted practices in rural, urban, and lakeshore sectors – Outreach and education; writing
Bruce Wilson TMDL Expert
– Senior Scientist with 35+ years lake and stream experience – Assisted in development of lake nutrient standards – Provided technical support on over 50 lake and river
restoration projects
Julie Blackburn Project Manager
– Former Assistant Director for BWSR – Comprehensive Watershed Management Planning – TMDLs, Watershed Assessment and Implementation – Outreach, facilitation, stakeholder involvement
RESPEC Team
Lee Rosen Project Management
Chris Lupo HSPF Modeler
–HSPF Model Expert –Data Analysis; Data Interpretation –Hydraulics and Hydrology
– Hydrology and Hydraulics – Water-Quality BMP Design – 8 years Engineering, Planning and Design Experience
Geoff Kraemer Modeling and Restoration
– BATHTUB Modeling; Data Analysis – Watershed Restoration – Writing
MPCA Project Team Members • Cary Hernandez: Project Manager • Pat Carey: Watershed Supervisor • Jesse Anderson: Water Quality Monitoring; TMDL • Chuck Regan: HSPF Modeling • Mike Kennedy: Basin HUCs watershed project
manager, civic engagement • Suzanne Hanson: MPCA Regional Manager,
represents MPCA on various boards
LOTW SWCD Project Team Members • Mike Hirst: Project Manager • Josh Stromlund: SWCD; Land and Water Planning
Director
Project Timeline
• By mid-November 2015 • Update HSPF and BATHTUB models
• October 2015-April 2016 • Develop individual components of the TMDL Study
• February – December 2016 • Develop draft TMDL Report
• June 2016 – June 2017 • Develop restoration plan
• January – June 2017 • Prepare TMDL Report for Official Public Notice of
Comment Period
Project Timeline: Gannt
Year
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M JObjective 1:HSPF and BATHTUB Models updated
X X X X X X
Objective 2:Individual TMDL Components Developed
X X X X X X X
Objective 3:TMDL Draft Developed X X X X X X X X X X XTMDL Prepared for Public Comment
X X X X X X X
Objective 4:Restoration Plan Development
X X X X X X X X X X X X X
Objective 5:Organizational Meeting XTechnical Advisory Cmte Mtgs X X X X X X X X X X X XCivic Engagement X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
2015 Year 20172016
How can you get involved
• Stay up-to-date on watershed activities • Check out the Lake of the Woods Soil and Water
Conservation District’s website • Participate in stakeholder opportunities
• Two rounds of public meetings; three meetings each round
• Connect us to your organization • Inform of project; request project team member
present update • Submit updates to local newsletter
• Suggest an article for a local publication • Offer your expertise and volunteer to be a member
of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)
Technical Advisory Committee
• 6-10 people representing technical expertise in: • Hydrology, limnology, data analysis, modeling
• Provide expert advise, feedback, and guidance to project team
• Two-hour meetings every other month • Some homework (meeting preparation; critical
review of TMDL draft) • Commitment to the two-year process • Willing to be listed as a member of the TAC
Please consider joining the TAC to lend
your expertise to this important project!
Bi-National Coordination
10 plus years of partnerships and engagement
IJC Watershed Board and WQ Plan of Study June 2010: IJC Reference IJC appoints Task Force to study watershed
governance and priority issues
Jan 2012: IJC submits Task Force report to the U.S. and Canada on binational water management
Summer 2012: U.S. and Canada task IJC to form new International Watershed Board and develop a Plan of Study to address priority issues
April 2013: IJC appoints International Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board
January 2014: IJC appoints bi-national task force to develop Lake of the Woods Basin Water Quality Plan of Study
January 2015: IJC submits Plan of Study to DFATD and U.S. State Dept., with strong recommendation to undertake all 32 projects
Governance / Implementation Platform
Int’l Multi-Agency Arrangement
Int’l Rainy-Lake of the Woods Watershed Board
Rainy-Namakan Water Levels Committee
20 Members – U.S. & Canada: • Agencies (federal, state/provincial) • First Nations, Métis and U.S. Tribes • Public members
• Platform for research & management collaboration • Focus: nutrients, algae, erosion, AIS • 10 Signatories (a.k.a. – Working Group)
• Acts independently – authority delegated from Board
CAG
IAG
U.S. EPA Red Lake Band MDNR MPCA Koochiching SWCD
Environment Canada OMNRF OMOECC MB WS LOWWSF
Other Committees • Water Quality Plan of Study • Water Quality Reporting • Outreach / Communications
Int’l LoW Control Board
Int’l LoW Control Board
1056 ft
• LoW levels • Engineering advice to RNWLC
Lake of the Woods Control Board 1061 ft
• Technical Advisory Committee Working Group Agencies + Others
Progress: International Watershed Coordination
• Established 2012 – partnership of Foundation, MPCA, MB CWS, and IJC
• Glue and two-way connection between groups / levels:
• Binational: watershed (IJC) • Regional: research & management • Local: agencies & groups
working on watershed activities
Next Steps • WebEx Organizational Meeting 10/2/2015 • Technical Advisory Committee Formed • Public Participation and Outreach
• Two rounds of public meetings held in 3 locations each
• Refinement of Existing Models • Develop TMDL and Report • Develop Restoration Strategy
Questions / Discussion