Date post: | 20-Dec-2015 |
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Land Use Futures:Governance, Innovation &
Territory
John Goddard
Newcastle University
Governance
• The changing role of the state in influencing what use is made of land where
• The changing balance between private and public interest and between individual & collective action
• The changing distributional (welfare) benefits of access to land resources
• The constraining influence of sunk investment (infrastructure) and the power of historic vested interests
• The need for a narrative linking past ,present & future
Figure Scenario structure
Innovation
• The changing organisation of production, distribution and consumption arising from innovation
• The emergence of total innovation (“more than products resulting from scientific and technological research also new services, business models and organisational forms that occur in all sectors of the economy”) (NESTA)
• Transformational innovations that fundamentally change business and social life (e.g. the internet)
• The influence of these innovations on what economic activities are located where and where people live
• Innovations mediated through existing structures (organisations, people and places)
Territory
• Interaction of innovation and governance with the real geography of the UK
• The changing geography of the national settlement system
• National, regional and city scale views of land use systems and sub-systems
• The London city region, other city regions and the North/South divide
• The pace of change in the settlement system
from Mike Coombes (forthcoming 2009) “English rural housing market policy: some
inconvenient truths?” Planning Practice and Research
1950
Whiteley: retail, office park and houses (1990s)
Retail and housing (1990s)
Housing (1980s)
Housing and shopping centre
(1980s)
2004
Daedalus airfield?
Segensworth: industry/offices
(1980s)
Original inter-urban
development (1960s)
EVIDENCE REVIEW (Part of the PERS)
POLICY REVIEW (Part of the PERS)
SUB-REGIONAL ASSESSMENTS
REGIONAL ‘FUTURES’ – SCENARIOS DESCRIBING ALTERNATIVE REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PATHS (PATHWAYS)
NORMATIVE FRAMEWORK – INTEGRATED REGIONAL FRAMEWORK (IRF)Values and aspirationsTrends and policy driversScenariosConsultationsSensitivity analyses / Probability assessments
REGIONAL CHALLENGES -– OPTIONS APPRAISAL(A ‘Regional Conversation’?)
IRF as the basis of assessment criteria (as related to the 4 capitals model)Key Drivers AND Objectives Key Trade-offsKey Win-wins
PREFERRED PATHWAY / OPTION
STRATEGIC DIRECTION (Building on Preferred Option)Key ObjectivesKey Outcomes
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING
SINGLE INTEGRATED REGIONAL STRATEGY
Figure 1: Overall Framework of Work to develop the SIRS